GASabresIUFan

If Bates was a better option at center than Morse he would have beat him out for the starting job last season. Instead, Bates only played 3% of the offensive snaps last season. Bates is a very good depth O lineman. He can backup at center and both guard positions. Who knows what Anderson can or can't do as he hasn't even played a down for the Bills. Where I agree with you is the depth at center in the draft. I would love for the Bills to draft Van Pran from UGA. This would allow the Bills to trade Bates, saving another $5 mill in cap. Van Pran could then be mentored by Morse for a year or two and then take over when Morse retires. I watched Van Pran for years at UGA and he will be a very good to excellent pro center.

If the Bills are able to do everything on their list they could conceivably cut $90 mill from the cap. Some of the things they suggested, like giving Morse and Poyer pay cuts, aren’t happening. Both might sign some kind extension to get their cap hit down but neither is agreeing to a pay cut. They also suggested only giving pay cuts to Harty and Hines. Sorry, but I doubt both will be back next season. Harty is easily replaced and Hines is a huge injury risk. I’d move on from both and save all 8.7. Their other big money grab, besides Josh, was a Diggs restructure. They argue he is going to be here another 3 years regardless because of his contract and we need to win now. I was against it at first, but they convinced me. Clearing 13 mill for Diggs could be the difference in re-signing Jones or a good replacement or having to go with a rookie or cheap UFA. PS Why do so many people think we should cut Morse? I understand the cap savings, but last season the O line was a huge strength. Why weaken it by dumping the anchor of the line who stayed healthy and played great? I think Beane likely agrees with me and if Morse wants to return he will.

There is only FA the Bills should sign this off-season and that is Josh Allen. The only way this team wins the SB is by having Josh Allen on both sides of the ball.

Di you notice the lack of a good No. 2 WR to take some of the pressure off Diggs? If we get Diggs a good complimentary boundary receiver, Diggs should have a great bounce-back year.

Diggs will be in Buffalo through the 2026 season.

I looked at his list and the Athletic’s list and there are 13 guys they agree have potential cap savings, but not necessarily on what to do. Both ended up with 70 million in cap savings. They both looked at restructuring Allen, McGovern, Knox, Milano and Bates. They also agreed on extensions for Dawkins, Douglas and T. Johnson. Where they disagreed on how to get the cap savings was Harty, Hines, White, Poyer and Morse. Tompsett suggests pay cuts for all 5 players. Hines and Harty may take a cut, but Poyer and Morse won’t. White may take a cut, but I doubt that as well. The Athletic suggests extensions for White and Morse using void years and non-guarantees (White) to get the cap down and a restructuring for Poyer. Personally, I’d move on from both Harty and Hines and save 8.7 million. Both are easily replaced. Tompsett also suggested looking at restructuring Diggs since he isn’t going anywhere for the next 3 years, releasing Martin, a pay cut for Neal and restructure for Oliver. These moves could potentially save another 20+. Re-signing D Jones was the panels highest priority. Others mentioned Edwards, Floyd, Ty Johnson, Epenesa (although he’s probably too expensive to re-sign) and Dane Jackson or Rapp. They also mentioned Elliott at RB and Mooney at WR.

I’m no capologist, but the way I understand the idea is that the Bills would change his salary and roster bonus to a signing bonus prorated over 4 years thus decreasing the cap hit by the 7 mill. My guess is it would increase his dead cap hit in 2025 by about 2.5, but according to spotrac.com this would still be favorable as his current dead cap in 2025 is 4.1 vs an active cap of 16+. What I don’t know is void years and things of that nature that would affect our cap for White even if cut this year. The other thing I don’t know is whether an injury settlement is required vs an out-right release. If required, who knows what this might look like in the end. If it is required maybe Joe’s idea is a smarter way to proceed.

In general, I agree with your contention why hold onto a twice-injured CB who is unlikely to return at his former all-pro level? However, I get the impression that White is part of the leadership on this team and that Beane likes him. I also look at our depth beyond the 3 starters (Benford, Douglas, and Johnson) and think that White may still have a future in Buffalo. Do you trust Elam or Neal if one of the 3 starters gets hurt? That's where the Athletic's idea comes in. It allows the Bills to get more cap savings than an outright release while still keeping him and allowing him to recover properly from his injury.

Morse isn’t getting cut unless he says he’s retiring. If he says he wants to return, he is our starting center. The only question is how we get his cap hit down.

https://theathletic.com/5238669/2024/02/02/buffalo-bills-offseason-salary-cap/ This is the best approach I've seen 1) Josh - Restructure salary and roster bonus - 22.63 in savings 2) White - Roster bonus due in early March - sign an extension but one without any guarantees to 2027. Allows White time to heal and gives the Bill immediate savings - 7.39 3) Douglas - Extend Douglas for two years - 6.03 in savings 4) Knox - Restructure -5.86 in savings 5) Morse - one-year extension with 3 void years - 5.01 in savings 6) McGovern - turn his base salary into a signing bonus - $3.12 in savings 7) Hines - pay cut - 2.5 in savings 8.) Milano - restructure - Salary to bonus - 2.19 in saving 9) Bates - turn salary in bonus - 2.08 in savings 10) Poyer - Restructure + a void year - 1.765 in savings 11) Harty - pay cut - 1.5 in savings (I'd cut him if we are keeping Hines) 12) T Johnson - Extension - Depending on extension length - potential savings 2-5 million 13) Dawkins - Extension - 2 years with possible 2 void years - potential savings 2-4 million? more? This nets us about 63-70 million. I still think we need to get to 80. Not sure how he gets there. I'm moving on from Harty and Hines as I can find cheaper and better replacements for substantially less. Middle to late-round draftees could perform at their levels for less than $2 mill total. I'd cut both, save the $9 mill, and use draft picks or other depth FAs as replacements. That saves $7 mill net vs the $4 mill projected in the article.

What can the Bills do to get cap complaint? They have to dump or restructure about 75-80 million to have any freedom in free agency and to sign their draft picks. The big piece will likely be moving some or all of Josh’s 23.5 salary to a bonus of some sort, shrinking Josh’s can hit significantly. The cuts should be Hines (cap savings $5 mill), Harty (4.2), White (6), although there is probably some things Beane can do to keep Hines and White, but restructure to reduce their cap hits significantly. White, if designated for June 1 would save 10 mill in cap for 2024. Morse, Douglas, Dawkins, T Johnson are all on the last year of their current deals. I can see all of them being extended a year or two to create cap space through bonus structuring. I’m sure there are other restructuring Beane could do to come the necessary cap space. I can also see Morse retiring, and Bates taking over his slot. This would save nearly 8.5 Other potential cap casualties Gilliam (savings 1.9), Neal (2.9), and Martin (1.2). All of this gets about 55-60 off the books in 2024. I figured a out $3 mill in savings per extension for the 4 players. These move leaves us about $20 mill short of the goal. I wonder if we can somehow defer for cap purposes 3 mill each from Diggs and Miller and push it to the 2026 cap. This will eat some of the cap savings in 2026, but not really significantly. I also think Diggs will be here through 2026 anyway and Miller through 2025. Miller’s dead cap is $9 (vs 20 salary in 2026) and Digg’s dead cap is $5 in 2027 (vs a salary of 18).

The Bills draft history says otherwise. I agree with you generally on 6th rd or later and that is reflected on the draft chart I linked earlier. However, Beane and Watney had a pretty good 5th track record. Since 2017, the Bills have drafted Milano, Neal, Wyatt Teller (all-pro G Beane let go way too early), Doyle, Shakir, and Shorter. Shorter and Doyle are still unknowns, but getting Milano, Teller, and Shakir is pretty amazing. They have done pretty well in the 6th and 7th. McCloud, Dane Jackson, Bass, Hodgins, Spector, and Benford are all 6th or 7th-round picks. Benford is the real gem, but McCloud and Jackson have very solid careers, and Spector shows some good promise. Honestly, given our cap and depth issues, I want as many lottery tickets in this draft as possible.

No not in the 1st, but last year he traded down 3 times to get extra draft capital in the draft after moving up a few slots to get Kincaid in the first.

I know. People here keep saying trade up to get X receiver or trade everything to get y receiver. Sadly that is a sure way to fail this off-season given we are 50 million over the cap and have 22 UFAs. Given the depth at WR & S in this draft and our desperate need for young, cost-controlled, defensive talent at safety, DT, and Edge, getting a 4th top 100 pick by trading down 3-7 slots from 28 will go a long way toward filling those holes while getting us the WR we need to replace Davis. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=gb When looking at this chart the 28th pick is worth 660 "points." Sliding down to say 35 or 36 will net us an additional late 3rd rd pick. If the team is desperate enough we could get a pick in the mid 80's instead of 90's. A perfect partner for us could be Ari who has 27, 35, 66, 71 & 90. I'd trade 28 (and 201 or 205 if necessary) for 35 & 90.

I think the thread question should be do they have the guts not to move on from White.

The Bills trade out of the 1st round to get an extra pick in the 3rd round.

Totally agree.

The 1 CB/S also stands out especially because the kid is a bust. The 4 DL also stands out considering we only have two of the four on the roster.

Priority list 1. DT - we have only one signed. I see 2 additions in the draft and an FA as the starter. I expect a McGovern-level signing if Jones isn’t re-signed. I think they'll grab one DT in the 1st 3 rounds. 2. Safety. Poyer and Hamlin are signed. Need an FA possible starter and at least one higher draftee to compete in camp for the starter's job. We need someone better than Rapp. I expect S to be drafted in the top 4 rounds. 3. WR - Need a Davis upgrade and an eventual Diggs replacement maybe as early as 2025. This should be our 1st pick, even if management likes Shorter as Gabe's replacement. GB convinced me that you can’t have enough talent in the receiving room. I’m also interested in a late-round WR, but suspect we’ll see a cheap FA instead. 4. Edge - Rousseau is the man. Miller is a maybe and Jonathan an unknown. We are going to need two bodies here. I see one middle draftee and a cheap FA. Maybe we find enough money to keep Epenesa and lower the draft priority. 5 & 6 OT and Center. Brown and Dawkins are on 1-year deals, as is Morse and Bates. Get some middle-round bodies in and see if one has the goods to be a starter in 2025. It would be a dream draft if Van Pran falls to the Bills in the 3rd. That would also us to trade Bates and save $5 million in cap to use elsewhere. 7. CB Douglas and I think Taron Johnson only have one year left on their deals and who knows whether While returns. Elam is a bust so far and the CBs on special teams aren’t returning. Seems like a good time to grab one in the 5th or 6th rounds when we have 5 picks. 8. RB - Right now Cook is our only RB. Re-signing Ty Johnson should be done. If Hines’ knee doesn’t look good, I expect Beane to draft more depth here. TE and LB need one more player each. I expect both jobs to go to cheap FA.

The only real recipe is staying healthy if you have good talent. The Bills had the talent, but couldn't stay healthy - Lost Milano and White for the year, Jones for most of the year, and then lost 7 starters on defense during W18 and the WC game. Hard to win a Super Bowl with that much talent out or playing with significant injuries.

In my humble opinion both guys should be sent packing. Both guys are primarily kick returners and to their credit, both guys gave the Bills a lift one game each over the last two seasons. However, one game each isn't worthy 4-5 million. Harty gave us last year 15 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD. We can replace that production from a practice squad player. Hines gave us mostly receiving yards with 30 catches for 241 and 1 TD (plus 33 yards rushing on 24 attempts - awful). Again this is easily replaced production. Ty Johnson gave us nearly 200 yards from scrimmage in 10 games as a 3rd stringer for 1/5 the cost. The only reason I think they’ll bring Hines back is our lack of backs in the organization that know the offense. Re-sign Johnson as the power back and re-sign Hines as the speed back & kick returner (depending on his knee) at a greatly reduced cap hit and Beane will call it a day. Draft 2 WRs, one early and one late to go with Diggs, Shakir and maybe Shorter.

Here is the Bills vs KC 2023 1-1 RS W14(R) W - 20-17; DP(H) L-24-27 2022 1-0 RS W6(R) W - 24-20 2021 1-1 RS W5(R) W - 38-20; DP(R) L 36-42 2020 0-2 RS W6(H) L - 17-26; CC(R) L-24-38 In the last 4 years we are 3-4 against the Chiefs 3-1 RS, 0-3 in the playoffs. The point differential is -11 (stemming from getting blown out in the 2020 CC). Over the last 3 seasons, we are 3-2 with a +16 pt differential. No team is closer to the Chiefs level than us. With a little luck in the health department, we beat the KC this past season. Add some astute additions by Beane plus a little luck in the health department this coming season, we will be the best team in the AFC.

I live in Atlanta. If they get a real QB you should see an explosion of production from Pitts and London.

What does this have anything to do with my post? I was analyzing top WRs and saw that it was half and half between 1st rd players and non-first rd players. Given where the Bills draft and the type of player available at 28, the Bills seem destined to land a WR at that position. After all, this is a WR thread. If you want to read my thoughts on the draft at large, I posted a look at our most critical needs that might be filled in the draft. I concluded that I expected to try to get a starting WR in the draft, then get rotational players early at DT and Edge followed by an eventual starter at S, but for next season I expected the starting S to come from free agency. I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft. In the later rounds, I expect another DT, and depth players at TE, CB, LB and possible at RB depending on how the draft falls.

I don’t think he’ll be back next season. Too much cap benefit to moving on especially if they retain Hines after a contract restructure. I do believe Beane will draft a 2nd WR in the 5th (we have 2 5th rd picks), but if they like Shorter and release Harty maybe they sign a cheap vet instead.