GASabresIUFan

That is my point. Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players. Time to draft and develop our own depth.

No. Even with the cap increase the Bills still need to watch their pocket book this year and next until they are out from under Diggs , Knox and especially Miller. Last year I think McGovern was our biggest FA signing. Hopefully the bump in cap allows Beane to make two McGovern level signings (Jones & Chinn?). Even with the cap jump, the Bills are still 35+ over the cap. They also really only have about 30-35 players who you can project to next year’s roster depending on how some of the kids develop. If you clear 70 million off the off the cap, that leaves about 35 million to fill approximately 20 roster holes. Assuming 6-7 guys from the draft make the team (cost about $10 million), they leaves 25 million for 14 players. That’s about 1.7-1.8 per player. That what we paid Sherfield last year.

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats. Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021. So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles. Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games. However, you also proved my point. We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results. Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.

This has got to be my favorite mock draft so far. I traded down early twice to collect top 100 picks. Both trades were offered by the software. I then instigated two trades up later in the draft to keep the list at 11 picks. I ended up with two really good ex-bulldog receivers, one for his height and hands and one for his speed with decent size. I also drafted 3 DLinemen and 2 safeties to add depth to the D both short and long-term. I'm also thrilled with getting Van Pran, a future starting center, at the end the 3rd rd. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 31 2024: Round 2, Pick 63 2024: Round 3, Pick 94 2025: Round 4 2025: Round 5 San Francisco Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 193 Indianapolis Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 198 2024: Round 7, Pick 246 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 64 2024: Round 3, Pick 95 2025: Round 4 Kansas City Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 180 Carolina Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 202 2024: Round 6, Pick 206 My Selections 31 Adonai Mitchell WR | Texas TRADE 63 Javon Bullard S | Georgia TRADE 64 Ruke Orhorhoro DL | Clemson TRADE 94 Jonah Elliss EDGE | Utah TRADE 95 Sedrick Van Pran IOL | Georgia TRADE 99 Jermaine Burton WR | Alabama 129 Christian Jones OT | Texas 159 Jaylen Wright RB | Tennessee 162 Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB | Louisville 180 Justin Eboigbe DL | Alabama TRADE 193 Jordan Travis QB | Florida State TRADE

LOL, the Bills aren't cutting Miller. His cap hit is 23.8 million, but his dead cap is 32.5. Why would anyone essentially pay more not to have someone play? Even if you do the June 1 cut, his cap hit is 17 million and you adding a cap hit to 2025. Miller will be a Bill in 2024. Cutting him in 2025 makes much more sense. His dead cap would be down to 15.4 vs a roster cap hit of 23.9. However, a June 1 cut cap cost would be down to 6.4. This would be much more feasible. Below are Spotrac's recommendations for the Bills https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/ Cap casualties - White, Bates, Harty, Hines, and Hamlin. IMHO Harty and Hines need to go. Cutting Hamlin saves nothing, other than freeing a roster spot for his replacement. White is going to be restructured vs cut. If they are going to move on from Bates, it will be through trade, but a cap casualty Cap conversions - Allen (obviously), Knox (again likely), Poyer and Miller. They suggest Poyer conversation with 4 void years to save 2.8 mill and moving $8 mill of Miller's salary to a bonus. This will limit the cap vs dead cap in 2025, but opens money for this season. I doubt the Bills do this, especially if they want to move on in 2025. Extensions - Dawkins and T Johnson (both need to get done). Also Douglas (everyone agree here as well). Others - Diggs - Cap conversion. I think the increased cap makes this move less likely. Milano - conversion. I think this is an interesting question. It doesn't yield much, but makes it harder to move on from his deal in 2025 if he has another injury-plagued season. Ed Oliver - Contract extension. This looks more likely in 2025.

That’s great news for the Bills, but it gives every team more money to spend stupidly. Beane shouldn’t change his plan at all. This just gives him a better opportunity to get out of cap hell quicker.

I understand your argument. You’d like a veteran insurance policy in case the rookie early draft pick isn’t ready to contribute right away. Unfortunately I don’t think that player exists for a price we can afford. Might as well add Sherfield to the practice squad

By the way, I went and looked at how the rookie WRs performed from the last 5 drafts who were drafted from 20-40. There were 16 players including Deebo, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Flowers, Addison, Higgins, and Pittman. The best performers as rookies were Jefferson, Addison, Higgins, Flowers, and Samuel, but the average was solid at 51 catches for 635 yards and 4 TDs. The last time the Bills got that kind of performance from a FA boundary WR was 2021 from Emmanuel Sanders and he cost $6 mill that season.

We have vets, their names are Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid. Yes, the last 2 are young, but they have already proven themselves. We had a vet in the 2nd boundary last year in Davis and what good did that do us? Did you know that Davis was the 4th most productive (yards-wise) of the FA wide receivers? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/ Which of the available FA that we can afford could give us Davis-level production? I look through this list and I see Mooney, Reynolds, Peoples-Jones, and others and I'm like meh! I just don't see how any of those guys are truly an upgrade over Davis. No more band-aids. Because of the cap situation, Beane is going to have to take some risk in letting a few kids play. I'd rather a rookie start as our 4th receiving option vs starting a kid on the DL or safety.

As we learned with Harry and Sherfield that signing a vet, even one who produced elsewhere, is no guarantee of success. Any vet we can afford likely has an injury history, a flaw in his game (like drops), or his skills are already in decline. Like a rookie, the new vet also has to learn our system. Even a declining Diggs is still better than 80-90% of the other receivers in the NFL. What numbers would you assign to a “declining” Diggs? 75-80 catches 950-1000 yards 6TDs? We get someone who can stretch the field a little, there is going to be a lot less pressure on Diggs. Don’t forget Kincaid and Shakir should continue to get better. Diggs is already not alone. Add those numbers above to improved numbers for Kincaid and Shakir and my guess is the offense will already be better and more balanced. I think Kincaid can get to 900-1000 yards next season. Because we already have Shakir, Diggs and Kincaid the early draftee doesn’t have to be Chase, Jefferson or Nacua to make a significant impact. He just needs to make Josh’s life a little easier by giving him a solid 4th option to throw the ball to. I’m thinking GB’s Reed or Doubs type impact. We get any of the top 10 receivers in this draft they should be able to give us that type of impact. Don’t forget that we still have Shorter who management likes. He is a tall receiver with decent speed. After a lost rookie season due to injury, I’m looking forward to seeing his progress. Now add Beane’s spotty track record with FA receivers and limited cap space, I’d rather take the chance on a bunch of kids. I keep referencing GB, as their top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs were all 1st and 2nd year players and that didn’t hold them back at all.

Diggs’ contract means he is here for the next two years minimum, probably 3. Also, WR is one of few positions that a rookie has a chance to really shine. We don’t need some 4th string vet because he’s been around. We need better WR talent and that talent at a price we can afford now and in the future.

Why bring in any of these guys? What do they bring but a waste of limited cap $. Could they out outperform the nothing we got from Harty, Sherfield, and Isabella? Sure they could, but so could a 4th or 5th rd draft pick. Shorter is already here and is aleady a cost-controlled option. I'd much rather have Diggs, a top draft pick, and Shakir as the top 3. and then let Shorter, Hamler and another draft pick fight it out for the 4th and 5th slots. Long-term we'd be much better off if Shorter and/or another similar draft pick emerge as a threat just like 5th rd pick Shakir did last year. I just don't see how adding another 1-year castoff makes us better. We need to fix the D Line and safety depth before wasting FA $ on a 4th or 5th WR.

If the Bills can't afford to keep Davis, how do they afford to sign a FA who is an upgrade over Davis. The truth is Beane has been trying to build a WR group from castoffs and lower draft picks since he got here. The only except was the trade for Diggs; although it could be argued that he should have kept the pick and drafted Jefferson. Regardless, it's time for Beane to step up and truly invest in the position. The only way to upgrade the position given our budget is to draft a WR in the 1st rd (or with our 1st pick if we trade down) and draft a 2nd WR with our 4th rd pick or one of our two 5th rd picks. We should cut Harty as well. We should go into next season with Diggs, 1st Draft pick and Shakir as our top 3 and then let Shorter, the 4/5th rd pick, and Hamler battle it out in camp for the last 2 slots.

Meh! What did Kincaid do as a rookie that Torrence didn’t do as a rookie or Benford and Benard did in the 2nd years? All three guys played extremely well at their positions erasing 3 holes in our starting roster in the process, just like Kincaid did. Benard played much of the year at the pro bowl level. Also why Douglas and T Johnson a yellow? Both are solid starters under contract and both are likely to be extended this off-season.

Trade Recap Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 31 2024: Round 2, Pick 63 2024: Round 3, Pick 94 2024: Round 3, Pick 98 San Francisco Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 2024: Round 3, Pick 99 My Selections 31 Troy Franklin WR | Oregon TRADE 63 Tyler Nubin S | Minnesota TRADE 94 Dominick Puni IOL | Kansas TRADE 98 Maason Smith DL | LSU TRADE 129 Blake Fisher OT | Notre Dame 159 Justin Eboigbe DL | Alabama 162 Ray Davis RB | Kentucky 198 Luke McCaffrey WR | Rice 202 Malik Mustapha S | Wake Forest 206 Andru Phillips CB | Kentucky 246 Grayson Murphy EDGE | UCLA

https://theathletic.com/5280918/2024/02/19/free-agency-rankings-nfl-best-available/ The link is to the Athletic's top 150 NFL FAs. 22 Floyd 25 D. Jones 45 Davis 85 AJ Epenesa 137 Rapp No. 114 on their list is NE Edge rusher Josh Uche - He is 25 and sacks dipped last year to only 3.5. The Bills should have plenty of film on him. No way he gets the 8.5 per season Spotrac projects. From the Athletic - "Now he's likely headed toward a one-year prove-it deal." Sounds like a perfect Bills' signee. Given his age, if he works well in Buffalo he could be a long-term find as well. Some safeties that stood out as possible buy-low candidates are Indy's Julian Blackmon, GB's Darnell Savage, Tashaun Gipson Sr (although he is older), and Jermy Chinn. There are a ton of S FAs. Someone good is going to fall to the cracks and not get the contract they want. DT - I'm curious to see what the market is for former Bill, 2023 Jet, Quinton Jefferson. Also interested in Javon Kinlaw. He finally came into his own last season and could be a McGovern level signing as a guy young enough to be here for a few years and good enough to solidly fill a current need.

It's called a void year. Yes, we signed him to a one-year deal, but on paper, it was a 2-year deal so that Floyd could get the money he wanted and the Bills could limit the cap hit in 2023.

WR is the one area that I don't think a veteran presence is at all important. GB made the playoffs with a WR group and TE group consisting of all 1st and 2nd year players and their top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs produced as many yards and more TDs than our mixed group of 4 vets, 1 2nd yr player (Shakir), and one rookie (Kincaid). The 2 vets we signed last year gave us 26 catches for 236 yards and 2 TDs. IMHO dump Harty, don't sign any vets, and just draft 2 quality receivers. They'll be cheaper, probably healthier, and likely more productive. The only caveat here is whether or not management believes in Shorter. If they do, draft the BPA receiver with our 1st pick, and then don't worry about it. Don't forget Hamler (a small speed receiver) has been signed to a futures contract/

It wasn't a serious comment, but a wonderful notion of having a great "Josh Allen" on both sides of the ball.

I do wonder how the rankings will change after the Combine and the pro days. Look what the Senior Bowl did for McConkey. Who will be faster than expected? Who slower? Who shorter? Who with a better vertical leap? I don’t think the top 3 will change very much, but if Mitchell runs faster than expected, he could easily move up.

You can accomplish the cap savings and keep both Morse and Bates by extending Morse with a void year or two and by restructuring Bates's deal. Those two moves could save about 5-6 in cap and Beane retains his starter and his depth. As I said previously, I'd extend Morse, trade Bates, and draft Van Pran.

Really? The only 2 on the roster are the aging (and slowing) Poyer and the resurrected Hamlin. We need two safeties at a minimum. A FA starter for a year or two and at least one from this draft to either supplant Poyer or the FA by 2025. There 4 very talented safeties in this draft who will go in the top 75 in Bullock, Bullard, Kinchens, and Nubin. The Bills need to grab one of them if they can.

I think the needs at DT and Safety are going to be lessened by free agency. I don't think Beane wants to head into the season with a rookie at D Jones' slot or in Hyde's slot, but you never know. The only rookie starter I see for the Bills next season is at WR2 unless a draft pick shines in camp at S or DT and supplants the signed FA. From my standpoint, getting an Edge, DT, C, OT, and or S all could (should?) be early picks, but come after the WR2 in level of necessity. Getting the vets as starters for a year or two in FA allows Beane the luxury of picking the BPA from those 5 positions instead of simply drafting for need.

Maybe, but do you think that Beane, with so much to do to fix the Dline, Safety and WR, is going to make a huge change to the one area of his team that he doesn't need to alter?

I'm hoping he slips to the 80's. I'm hoping the Bills trade down in the first to pick up an extra 3rd. With that extra 3rd, and if we get lucky, Van Pran will be sitting there for us to take with the acquired pick. https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp It will take two trades to get into the 80s. 1 - Buffalo trades 28 & 206 to Ari for 35 & 90 2 - Buffalo trades 90 & 162 to Cleveland for 85 & 228