GASabresIUFan

The Bills only have 30-35 players under contract that you can project to next year's roster. That leaves about 20 jobs available for rookies and FAs. The estimated cap cost for the draftees is about 10 million for the top 6-7 guys. So that leaves about 20 million for 13-14 players using your estimate of available cap space or about 1.6 to 1.7 per FA. Last season we signed McGovern for 3 years 22.5. We also gave Floyd 1 year at 7 million with some void years to lower his cap hit. Those were the two biggest deals last year and I'd be surprised if this FA season isn't similar. Most of the rest of the FAs last year were the parade of 2 million or less guys like Sherfield, Dodson, Lawson, Martin, Rapp, Joseph, and Edwards. We need 4-5 players along the D Line, 2-3 safeties, at least 2 RBs, a backup QB, and more depth on the Oline. 30 million just doesn't go as far as it used to.

I think Chinn is a very reasonable risk. When healthy he is a very good player. We need the help we can get at S.

No, we don't. We have vets at WR. Their names are Diggs and Shakir. When was Kincaid "caught up" last season as a rookie starter at TE? When was Torrence "caught up" as a rookie starter in the Oline? Both are much harder spots for a rookie to succeed than as a deep-threat boundary WR. Last season alone the NFL had 8 rookie WRs and 2 rookie TEs haul in 600 or more receiving yards. Do you expect a veteran WR we can afford to do better than that? People keep mentioning guys like Noah Brown (567 yards last season), Bourne (406 yards), Mooney (414 yards) and Reynolds (608 yards). Do you think any of those guys want to come here to be the 4? Is Beane going to pay 5-7 million to one of those guys as rookie failure insurance? I doubt it when he has other areas to spend his limited cap dollars on like D Line and safety. This is one of the those times where we are going to have to go young and see what happens. The Bills are still $41.3 million over the new cap. Even if they shave 70 million off the current cap figure, that doesn't leave much money to sign the draft picks (approx 10 million), rebuild the D Line, and get a starting safety, and a good backup QB, while also filling out the depth at RB, CB, O Line etc...

Saying the GM built the young group because they had a 1st year QB doesn't make any sense. You would think a GM would want some vets in his WR/TE groups to help a 1st year QB. GB had lousy WR/TE groups and they needed to be rebuilt for whomever. Unlike Beane, their GM invested significant draft assets in the position. Over the last two years used 8 draft picks to build a good receiving and TE group, including a 1st (Musgrove), 2 2nds (Reed and Watson), a 3rd (Kraft), a 4th (Doubs), a 5th (Wicks) and 2 7ths (Toure and Dubose). They also used a 3rd on Amari Rodgers in 2021. Most of these picks were drafted before Love was the starter. Also saying Championship caliber teams don't start rookies or young players is BS. Our starters last season included Torrence (Rookie), Kincaid (Rookie), Shakir (2nd year), Benford (2nd year), Benard (2nd year), and Cook (2nd year). All the 2nd year players received significant PT as rookies. The only way you stay competitive once you reach the top in a cap league is to draft well and have your kids play well. You have to keep turning over your roster to get younger and cheaper. This is where the Bills are.

Probably Miller in 2025, unless he has a great year this coming season.

It was a stupid Super Bowl or bust type contract and we are paying for that stupidity now. The Knox contract was pretty stupid as well.

I don't understand how you and others think there is $6 million floating around to pay a Reynolds or Brown to be our 4th receiver. They aren't going anywhere to be a 4 and it's a waste for Buffalo with so many other needs and limited cap space. Diggs and Shakir are the 1 & 3. We will be using a high pick at WR. That player is the 2 replacing Davis. The Bills only carry 5 WRs, thus after those 3 you are not investing $6 million or more in a 4th string wideout. The Bills already have Shorter in development, plus Isabella and Hamler as futures/reserve contracts. Is it possible that Beane finds a veteran for a $2 Million prove-it contract to come in and compete with Shorter, Hamler, and a later draft pick for a job? Sure it's possible, but don't expect that player that player to be on Reynolds' level. Spotrac projects Reynolds contract at $7 million and Brown at 5.6. I will give you one name that could come cheap, has talent, is young, and produced decently before last season and that is Chase Claypool. GMs, even good ones, go with inexperienced WR groups. GB's top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs last year were all 1st and 2nd-year players and they out-performed the Bills' group.

That is my point. Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players. Time to draft and develop our own depth.

No. Even with the cap increase the Bills still need to watch their pocket book this year and next until they are out from under Diggs , Knox and especially Miller. Last year I think McGovern was our biggest FA signing. Hopefully the bump in cap allows Beane to make two McGovern level signings (Jones & Chinn?). Even with the cap jump, the Bills are still 35+ over the cap. They also really only have about 30-35 players who you can project to next year’s roster depending on how some of the kids develop. If you clear 70 million off the off the cap, that leaves about 35 million to fill approximately 20 roster holes. Assuming 6-7 guys from the draft make the team (cost about $10 million), they leaves 25 million for 14 players. That’s about 1.7-1.8 per player. That what we paid Sherfield last year.

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats. Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021. So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles. Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games. However, you also proved my point. We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results. Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.

This has got to be my favorite mock draft so far. I traded down early twice to collect top 100 picks. Both trades were offered by the software. I then instigated two trades up later in the draft to keep the list at 11 picks. I ended up with two really good ex-bulldog receivers, one for his height and hands and one for his speed with decent size. I also drafted 3 DLinemen and 2 safeties to add depth to the D both short and long-term. I'm also thrilled with getting Van Pran, a future starting center, at the end the 3rd rd. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 31 2024: Round 2, Pick 63 2024: Round 3, Pick 94 2025: Round 4 2025: Round 5 San Francisco Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 193 Indianapolis Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 198 2024: Round 7, Pick 246 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 64 2024: Round 3, Pick 95 2025: Round 4 Kansas City Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 180 Carolina Receives: 2024: Round 6, Pick 202 2024: Round 6, Pick 206 My Selections 31 Adonai Mitchell WR | Texas TRADE 63 Javon Bullard S | Georgia TRADE 64 Ruke Orhorhoro DL | Clemson TRADE 94 Jonah Elliss EDGE | Utah TRADE 95 Sedrick Van Pran IOL | Georgia TRADE 99 Jermaine Burton WR | Alabama 129 Christian Jones OT | Texas 159 Jaylen Wright RB | Tennessee 162 Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB | Louisville 180 Justin Eboigbe DL | Alabama TRADE 193 Jordan Travis QB | Florida State TRADE

LOL, the Bills aren't cutting Miller. His cap hit is 23.8 million, but his dead cap is 32.5. Why would anyone essentially pay more not to have someone play? Even if you do the June 1 cut, his cap hit is 17 million and you adding a cap hit to 2025. Miller will be a Bill in 2024. Cutting him in 2025 makes much more sense. His dead cap would be down to 15.4 vs a roster cap hit of 23.9. However, a June 1 cut cap cost would be down to 6.4. This would be much more feasible. Below are Spotrac's recommendations for the Bills https://www.spotrac.com/news/whats-next-buffalo-bills-2199/ Cap casualties - White, Bates, Harty, Hines, and Hamlin. IMHO Harty and Hines need to go. Cutting Hamlin saves nothing, other than freeing a roster spot for his replacement. White is going to be restructured vs cut. If they are going to move on from Bates, it will be through trade, but a cap casualty Cap conversions - Allen (obviously), Knox (again likely), Poyer and Miller. They suggest Poyer conversation with 4 void years to save 2.8 mill and moving $8 mill of Miller's salary to a bonus. This will limit the cap vs dead cap in 2025, but opens money for this season. I doubt the Bills do this, especially if they want to move on in 2025. Extensions - Dawkins and T Johnson (both need to get done). Also Douglas (everyone agree here as well). Others - Diggs - Cap conversion. I think the increased cap makes this move less likely. Milano - conversion. I think this is an interesting question. It doesn't yield much, but makes it harder to move on from his deal in 2025 if he has another injury-plagued season. Ed Oliver - Contract extension. This looks more likely in 2025.

That’s great news for the Bills, but it gives every team more money to spend stupidly. Beane shouldn’t change his plan at all. This just gives him a better opportunity to get out of cap hell quicker.

I understand your argument. You’d like a veteran insurance policy in case the rookie early draft pick isn’t ready to contribute right away. Unfortunately I don’t think that player exists for a price we can afford. Might as well add Sherfield to the practice squad

By the way, I went and looked at how the rookie WRs performed from the last 5 drafts who were drafted from 20-40. There were 16 players including Deebo, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Flowers, Addison, Higgins, and Pittman. The best performers as rookies were Jefferson, Addison, Higgins, Flowers, and Samuel, but the average was solid at 51 catches for 635 yards and 4 TDs. The last time the Bills got that kind of performance from a FA boundary WR was 2021 from Emmanuel Sanders and he cost $6 mill that season.

We have vets, their names are Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid. Yes, the last 2 are young, but they have already proven themselves. We had a vet in the 2nd boundary last year in Davis and what good did that do us? Did you know that Davis was the 4th most productive (yards-wise) of the FA wide receivers? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/ Which of the available FA that we can afford could give us Davis-level production? I look through this list and I see Mooney, Reynolds, Peoples-Jones, and others and I'm like meh! I just don't see how any of those guys are truly an upgrade over Davis. No more band-aids. Because of the cap situation, Beane is going to have to take some risk in letting a few kids play. I'd rather a rookie start as our 4th receiving option vs starting a kid on the DL or safety.

As we learned with Harry and Sherfield that signing a vet, even one who produced elsewhere, is no guarantee of success. Any vet we can afford likely has an injury history, a flaw in his game (like drops), or his skills are already in decline. Like a rookie, the new vet also has to learn our system. Even a declining Diggs is still better than 80-90% of the other receivers in the NFL. What numbers would you assign to a “declining” Diggs? 75-80 catches 950-1000 yards 6TDs? We get someone who can stretch the field a little, there is going to be a lot less pressure on Diggs. Don’t forget Kincaid and Shakir should continue to get better. Diggs is already not alone. Add those numbers above to improved numbers for Kincaid and Shakir and my guess is the offense will already be better and more balanced. I think Kincaid can get to 900-1000 yards next season. Because we already have Shakir, Diggs and Kincaid the early draftee doesn’t have to be Chase, Jefferson or Nacua to make a significant impact. He just needs to make Josh’s life a little easier by giving him a solid 4th option to throw the ball to. I’m thinking GB’s Reed or Doubs type impact. We get any of the top 10 receivers in this draft they should be able to give us that type of impact. Don’t forget that we still have Shorter who management likes. He is a tall receiver with decent speed. After a lost rookie season due to injury, I’m looking forward to seeing his progress. Now add Beane’s spotty track record with FA receivers and limited cap space, I’d rather take the chance on a bunch of kids. I keep referencing GB, as their top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs were all 1st and 2nd year players and that didn’t hold them back at all.

Diggs’ contract means he is here for the next two years minimum, probably 3. Also, WR is one of few positions that a rookie has a chance to really shine. We don’t need some 4th string vet because he’s been around. We need better WR talent and that talent at a price we can afford now and in the future.

Why bring in any of these guys? What do they bring but a waste of limited cap $. Could they out outperform the nothing we got from Harty, Sherfield, and Isabella? Sure they could, but so could a 4th or 5th rd draft pick. Shorter is already here and is aleady a cost-controlled option. I'd much rather have Diggs, a top draft pick, and Shakir as the top 3. and then let Shorter, Hamler and another draft pick fight it out for the 4th and 5th slots. Long-term we'd be much better off if Shorter and/or another similar draft pick emerge as a threat just like 5th rd pick Shakir did last year. I just don't see how adding another 1-year castoff makes us better. We need to fix the D Line and safety depth before wasting FA $ on a 4th or 5th WR.

If the Bills can't afford to keep Davis, how do they afford to sign a FA who is an upgrade over Davis. The truth is Beane has been trying to build a WR group from castoffs and lower draft picks since he got here. The only except was the trade for Diggs; although it could be argued that he should have kept the pick and drafted Jefferson. Regardless, it's time for Beane to step up and truly invest in the position. The only way to upgrade the position given our budget is to draft a WR in the 1st rd (or with our 1st pick if we trade down) and draft a 2nd WR with our 4th rd pick or one of our two 5th rd picks. We should cut Harty as well. We should go into next season with Diggs, 1st Draft pick and Shakir as our top 3 and then let Shorter, the 4/5th rd pick, and Hamler battle it out in camp for the last 2 slots.

Meh! What did Kincaid do as a rookie that Torrence didn’t do as a rookie or Benford and Benard did in the 2nd years? All three guys played extremely well at their positions erasing 3 holes in our starting roster in the process, just like Kincaid did. Benard played much of the year at the pro bowl level. Also why Douglas and T Johnson a yellow? Both are solid starters under contract and both are likely to be extended this off-season.

Trade Recap Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 31 2024: Round 2, Pick 63 2024: Round 3, Pick 94 2024: Round 3, Pick 98 San Francisco Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 2024: Round 3, Pick 99 My Selections 31 Troy Franklin WR | Oregon TRADE 63 Tyler Nubin S | Minnesota TRADE 94 Dominick Puni IOL | Kansas TRADE 98 Maason Smith DL | LSU TRADE 129 Blake Fisher OT | Notre Dame 159 Justin Eboigbe DL | Alabama 162 Ray Davis RB | Kentucky 198 Luke McCaffrey WR | Rice 202 Malik Mustapha S | Wake Forest 206 Andru Phillips CB | Kentucky 246 Grayson Murphy EDGE | UCLA

https://theathletic.com/5280918/2024/02/19/free-agency-rankings-nfl-best-available/ The link is to the Athletic's top 150 NFL FAs. 22 Floyd 25 D. Jones 45 Davis 85 AJ Epenesa 137 Rapp No. 114 on their list is NE Edge rusher Josh Uche - He is 25 and sacks dipped last year to only 3.5. The Bills should have plenty of film on him. No way he gets the 8.5 per season Spotrac projects. From the Athletic - "Now he's likely headed toward a one-year prove-it deal." Sounds like a perfect Bills' signee. Given his age, if he works well in Buffalo he could be a long-term find as well. Some safeties that stood out as possible buy-low candidates are Indy's Julian Blackmon, GB's Darnell Savage, Tashaun Gipson Sr (although he is older), and Jermy Chinn. There are a ton of S FAs. Someone good is going to fall to the cracks and not get the contract they want. DT - I'm curious to see what the market is for former Bill, 2023 Jet, Quinton Jefferson. Also interested in Javon Kinlaw. He finally came into his own last season and could be a McGovern level signing as a guy young enough to be here for a few years and good enough to solidly fill a current need.

It's called a void year. Yes, we signed him to a one-year deal, but on paper, it was a 2-year deal so that Floyd could get the money he wanted and the Bills could limit the cap hit in 2023.

WR is the one area that I don't think a veteran presence is at all important. GB made the playoffs with a WR group and TE group consisting of all 1st and 2nd year players and their top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs produced as many yards and more TDs than our mixed group of 4 vets, 1 2nd yr player (Shakir), and one rookie (Kincaid). The 2 vets we signed last year gave us 26 catches for 236 yards and 2 TDs. IMHO dump Harty, don't sign any vets, and just draft 2 quality receivers. They'll be cheaper, probably healthier, and likely more productive. The only caveat here is whether or not management believes in Shorter. If they do, draft the BPA receiver with our 1st pick, and then don't worry about it. Don't forget Hamler (a small speed receiver) has been signed to a futures contract/