GASabresIUFan

No problem. l’m a little cranky in the morning.

I general agree that at least one will be back next season and a high likelihood that both will return. However, because of the Bills cap situation and how their contracts are structured I couldn’t decide which one has the higher likelihood of returning. I also factored in that Morse might retire and that the Bills may be able to trade Bates for an asset and give Anderson the backup C job to save cap. So given the uncertainty around both players, I thought it best to put them in Group 2. I also wrote that I thought all the players in groups 1-3 (35 players in all) would be back with the Bills next season in some capacity. I think a couple of the group 3 could end up on the practice squad.

? What am I running back? I’m the guy saying 12-14 free agents. I am the guy saying don’t sign a vet WR. How is that “running it back”? I am the guy who has posted numerous times to dump Harty and Hines and not look back. However, regardless of what I want, we have to be realistic on who Beane may bring back just on restructured terms. That’s why group 4 exists to illustrate which vets are vulnerable to being cut or restructured. The last group (Group 7) on the original post are FAs who played for us last year that no one wants back. The 6th group are guys the Bills may be looking to bring back or are guys people on this board have posted that they want back. As I have posted elsewhere, this team is getting younger and cheaper because it has to and that’s a good thing. I believe 6-7 draftees will make the team next fall. If you turnover 40% of the roster as I have predicted (6-7 draftees plus 12-14 FAs) I’d say that’s a pretty big year over year change).

Won't have a realistic idea of who they can sign until we see how much money we have to sign them with. My guess is we'll have about 20 million to spend on FAs, but maybe as many as 12-14 players to spend it on.

Yep, and that's why the draft and not wasting any cap on bad players (Harty, Sherfield etc...) is so important this off-season if the Bills are going to contend. The good news is this is a deep draft at safety and WR, two areas where we desperately need cheap and talented players. We currently have 10 draft picks. I estimate that Beane is going to have to sign 12-14 FAs to complete his roster without a huge amount of cap to work with. The good news is that he probably only needs 2-3 of them to be starters. My guess is one starter at DT, one safety, and one DE or Edge player. If Miller has a good camp, then Beane may only need a DT and Safety to start from his FAs. I'm expecting (hoping?) that Davis' replacement comes from the draft.

You'd think so, but after looking at his snap counts on defense and special teams and his only 40K dead cap if released, I concluded that he could lose his job very easily to someone else. He played only 17 snaps on defense all last season (1.59%). The only full-time player who played less on defense was Matakevich at 16 snaps. However, Matakevich played 343 snaps on special teams (80%) to Hamlin's 94 (22%). Matakevich isn't likely to return this coming season. If he isn't, I don't see why Hamlin would. This would be a very sad ending in Buffalo for a player who was developing nicely before his near-death experience. I truly hope he continues to work his way back, but if he doesn't make the team, I would hope the Bills add him to the organization in some capacity.

The nice thing about this exercise is that it shows visually where the depth is on the roster and where the needs are. We need 1 backup QB, 2 backup RB, 2-4 WRs, as many as 5 D Linemen, up to 4 safeties, and maybe a depth CB and depth LB.

Group 1 (36) - Players certain or almost certain to return Offense (16) QB - Allen, Trubisky - (signed 3/6 - 2 years $5.25 million) RB - Cook, Johnson (re-signed 3/14) WR - Diggs, Shakir, Hollins (signed 3/13) TE - Knox, Kincaid & Morris (re-signed 1yr 985k) OT - Brown, Dawkins, Van Demark, OG - Torrence, Edwards (Re-signed 2yrs $6million) C - McGovern Defense (17) DL - Rousseau, Miller, Oliver, Jonathan, Epenesa & Jones (both re-signed for 2 years) LB - Milano, Benard, Williams, Spector, Morrow (signed 3/12) CB - Benford, Douglas, Elam, Johnson & Lewis (re-signs 2 yrs 4 million on 3/11) S - Rapp - reports have him re-signing (3 yrs $14.5) Specialist (3) - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), (P) Haack (re-signed on 3/6) Group 2 (4) - Players under contract likely to return, but could also end up as cap casualties if K's not restructured OL - Morse, Bates (traded to Chicago); Morse release 3/6 (signs with Jax) S - Poyer - Poyer released 3/6 P - Martin Group 3 (5) - Returning Developmental players WR- Shorter OL - Anderson, Doyle DL - Ankou, Cline Group 4 (6) - Potential (likely?) cap casualties RB - Hines Hines to be released (3/3) FB - Gilliam WR - Harty - Harty released 3/6 CB - Neal, White - Neal released 3/6, White released with a 6/1 designation S - Hamlin Group 5 (13) - Futures/Reserve players QB - Buechele WR - Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson RB - Evans TE - McKitty, Davidson OL - Gouriage, Jarvis CB - Ingram, Brown S - Williamson Assuming all of the players in groups 1-3 return, that's 35 of 53 roster spots already spoken for. Admittedly the group 3 players could all end up on the practice squad. Except for Hamlin, all the Group 4 players may return, but it will be at lower cap figures than they currently possess. Hamlin's cap figure is low (1.05 with a 40k dead cap) it's just a question of whether he can earn a job on the 53-man roster. Right now I don't see any of the Group 5 players making the team, but that's what camp is for. Group 6 (11) - FAs who could be re-signed (or who people here may want re-sign). (I only have an interest in Jones, Epenesa, Ty Johnson and Edwards) DT - Joseph, Jones - re-signed (2 years 16 million) Edge Epenesa - re-signed (2 years up to $20 million) - Floyd, Signed with 49ers RB - Johnson (re-signed 3/14) S - Rapp - reports have him re-signing (3 yrs $14.5) OL - Edwards - Re-signed (2 years $6 million) TE - Morris - Re-signed (1 yr 985K) CB -Jackson, Lewis - re-signed 3/11 (2 years 4 million) LB -Dodson Group 7 (12) - Other FAs DL - Phillips, Settle, Ford, Lawson QB - K Allen RB - Murray, Harris, Fournette WR - Sherfield, Davis (signs with Jax) LB - Matakevich, Klein Group 8 - FA's signed P - Haack (signed 3/6) QB - Trubisky (signed 3/6) LB - Morrow (signed 3/12) WR - Hollins (signed 3/13)

It is a choice. The choice is where is the best place to spend limited FA cap dollars. Do you spend on your 4/5 receiving option or do you spend it on starters at safety and D Line? Beane and McDermott will spend it on the D as they should, because that's where the biggest holes in the roster are. The math is pretty straightforward. The Bills need to cut another 71 million from the current cap figure to get cap compliant, have at least 10 million to sign their draft picks, and have money left over to acquire about 14 FAs to complete the 53-man roster. Currently, Spotrac.com has us at 41 million over the cap. Of the current guys under contract (regular and futures) you can probably estimate that about 33-35 will be on next year's team (cost about 225 million). Add the 6 draftees for $10 million and that leaves only 20 million to sign 12-14 players. That does not leave much room to spend $6 million on a 4th receiving option. Sorry! If we have $50 million in cap space, I'd say go for it, but someone once told me that math always wins. The math is saying we just don't have the cap space.

Because it’s a waste of money. It’s just another band-aid without solving the long-term need. We’d also get the same performance or better from a high draft pick for less money with more potential upside. This is Emmanuel Sanders all over again. He gave us one decent season as the 4th option and then was gone. The only way to get younger, cheaper and more talented is to draft well. In Beane’s tenure he has never drafted a WR in the first 3 rounds. Is it any wonder we haven’t developed a WR behind Diggs?

Here is the problem. We invested good cap into these 3 players; Brown had one good year of his 2 plus in Buffalo, Sanders was ok his one year, and Beasley was good to excellent all 3 years. Brown and Beasley were also Josh's No. 1 & No .2 targets in 2019. Beasley remained the slot target for the next 2 seasons, but Davis and Diggs became the outside threats from 2020 forward. Sanders was 4th in catches in his one season behind Diggs, Beasley, and Knox. I'd much rather have a long-term strategy to replace Diggs and Davis, and that can only be done through the draft. Like Sanders, an FA WR is probably going to be Josh's 4th or 5th most popular target behind Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, and possibly Cook. If Beane drafts a WR in the 1st 2 rounds, an FA WR could end up being our 6th best option. Is that the place to invest 6 million of our limited cap?

I want Beane to draft a RB and re-sign Ty Johnson because he earned a new deal, but I do like this idea as well. He checks a ton of boxes for the Bills, plus he seems like a really good person. That story from the KC parade about him shows him as a person of excellent character and maybe his KC mojo rubs off on the Bills. Ultimately I want Beane to add starters on the Dline and S from free agency and then draft higher draft picks to step in and replace the FAs long-term by 2026. I like the Chinn idea and wouldn't mind seeing DaQuan Jones return. What I don't want is any serious money used on FA WRs. We have had a ton more success drafting guys for the skill positions; Allen, Cook, Shakir, and Kincaid to name 4. Now it's time to invest in WR help.

That's not true at all. How did John Brown or Emmanuel Sanders get here? What about Cole Beasley? The Bills signed Beasley to a 4 year $29 million deal with 14 million guaranteed. Sanders was given a 1-year $6 million deal and Brown's first contract with the Bills was 3 years 27 million with 111.7 guaranteed. If we are ever going to get younger and better at WR we need to invest (1st & 2nd rd picks) in WRs. We are never going to have a complete group until we stop signing other teams' castoffs and we can't afford another top-end receiver.

Do you really believe Beane is spending even decent $ on a WR? What happened to your get younger argument? Who do you believe we can actually afford? Mediocre players like Reynolds are projected to get 6-8 Million? Are we really going to waste that on a potential 4th WR when we need starters at DT and S? I will be shocked if Beane goes the decent $ WR route in free agency. We simply can't afford that.

Beane, McDermott and more importantly Josh Allen would disagree with you. Bates has yet to prove he is better than Morse and Anderson failed to earn a single snap last season. Dumping Morse would weaken the line which was one of the team’s great strength last season. There are much easier ways to lower his cap hit this season such as a restructure or a non-guaranteed extension with a void year or two. Odds favor him moving on after next season, but if continues to play well, why fix it if it ain’t broke?

What is your rationale for cutting Morse when he can be restructured capturing 2/3 of the savings for cutting him? Bates has yet to prove he is a better player, but he is a great insurance policy for the OG and C. Why weaken a line that player well last year as a group?

If he plays on passing downs and gets 5 sacks, that significantly more than the zero we received this past season. It’s not 25 mill value. It’s not even $5 mill in value, but considering we are stuck with him for this season, it’s at least a reasonable contribution for his roster spot.

Douglas isn’t being released. If he isn’t going to return, he is going to be traded. He is under contract for next year and we should get at least the 3rd we traded for him back. That said, I think he’ll be back. You don’t trade for a guy with term, who then played very well for you, then just dump him on the side of the road. Odds favor an extension, but maybe both sides are having trouble getting to a meeting of the minds on $ and term. People are reading to much into Beane usage of past tense. He was describing how Douglas played last season. He was also describing meeting him last year. Both of those events are in the past. Should have said he was looking forward to having him next season? Maybe, but since when does Beane care about the niceties? This could drag on for a while. Beane doesn’t have do anything with Douglas. Rasul is under contract. There is no cap cost to release or trade him. With the higher cap Beane may not have the urgency to extend Douglas as we all originally thought. Beane may now have the luxury of waiting to see how White recovers and/or how Elam progresses in the off-season workouts.

Bernard is just learning the things that Edmunds did well, but as someone else pointed out earlier, Bernard has the added ability to make the big play. I'll take a few mistakes here and there for a guy who can make a drive-stopping play. Last season Bernard had 143 tackles (84 solo), 6.5 sacks, 3 Fumble recoveries, 3 Ints, and 10 tackles for loss. That's an amazing season for anyone, much less a 2nd-year pro and 1st year starter. Edmunds has never had a stat line close to this good. Edmunds only has 6.5 sacks for his career. his best solo tackle season was his rookie year with 80, and he only has 1 FR for his career. When this kid learns more about O schemes and how to shed blocks faster, he'll be a great LB. He also needs to possibly get a little bigger. Pro-football-reference lists Bernard as 6'1 224. Edmunds is 6'5 250.

I guess I read that as a "whatever." When they let Edmunds walk, I wasn't that worried about replacing him. One of the big highlights of last season was watching all the kids thrive; Kincaid, Torrence, Cook, Shakir, Benford, and Benard. They are a huge reason that I'm perfectly ok with letting Davis walk and replacing him and the depth receivers with kids. This team desperately needs a youth movement and we have enough veteran leaders in the clubhouse to help more kids succeed. Truthfully, the vast majority of the FA signings throughout the lineup under-performed. Just look at the grades for Sherfield, Phillips, Rapp, Lawson, Murray, Miller and Settle. PFF also gave sub-par grades to Harty and Ford. Outside of Jones, Dodson, Floyd, and Edwards in limited usage, the FAs haven't excelled.

Actually, I didn’t really disagree with Joe’s assessment. Benard had huge peeks and was clearly learning on the job. However, he was a good tackler and will continue to improve. I expect him to make a huge leap in year 2 as a starter. I also am looking forward to Dorian Williams improvement in year 2. Benford is on his way to being the best 6th rd pick by the Bills in the last 30 years.

The Athletic did a ten-part series discussing a broad off-season game plan by position (except QB). https://theathletic.com/tag/bills-in-review-2024/ I thought the most instructive part was the grades for the season per player with 200+ snaps. Their point scale is on a 4.0 grade scale. I also looked up the grade on PFF (scale 0-100) for each player as a comparison. The Athletic's grade is based on film study and I'm not sure of the criteria for PFF. Most of the grades were relatively similar, except for a couple. The difference between Dodson's Athletic grade and PFF grade really stands out. What stands out to me was just how good Kincaid was as a rookie and how solid the entire O Line was. On Defense, Jones, Floyd, and maybe Epenesa look like the only FAs who should be brought back. Epenesa would have to be on a very reasonable contract. Of the depth FAs on Offense, PFF gave very good grades to Ty Johnson (82), Edwards (82.7), and Bates (78.7). Gabe Davis received a higher relative grade from the Athletic (2.96) than PFF (67.9).

It was predicted (The athletic) that we could save 3.12 on a McGovern restructure. 3.74 is better. https://theathletic.com/5238669/2024/02/02/buffalo-bills-offseason-salary-cap/

I think we all forget that Taron Johnson is also a CB. I wonder if Benford will eventually move to Johnson's role (Hybrid LB/Nickel CB) in the next few years. I like Douglas just where he is, but if Elam has a good camp and Douglas wants to take Hyde role, that's up to the coaching staff.

Apparently, my new unpopular opinion is that we don't need to waste 5-7 million on a FA veteran WR. That's a luxury we simply can't afford next season.