GASabresIUFan

Bates played 35 snaps on offense (3.01%) and only 79 snaps on ST (18.37%). Yes, it's unlikely we'll stay as healthy next season as we did this past season on the OLine, but Bates is a luxury we could no longer afford.

Link?

Bates traded 1.44 saved. Still 37+ million to go to get to cap compliance. Many moves to go and so little time.

Bates traded for a 5th. This makes it much more likely that Morse returns as the starting center. Opens up an opportunity for Anderson or a draft pick as the backup at center. I wanted us to go after Van Pran in the draft. Maybe this opens that possibility as well.

NFL = Not For Long

The Hamlin situation is unique. He is only making $1million (40k dead cap if released). There is no real cap savings if released, as he would be replaced on the 51 man cap roster by someone making just as much. However, releasing him now gives him the opportunity to pursue his career elsewhere before free agency begins. Ultimately it comes down to whether or not Beane and McDermott think that Hamlin can contribute more next season than last and whether they believe a replacement in the draft or from free agency would contribute more. Hamlin’s advantage is that he knows the defense and if cut, Poyer is the only S on the roster. As to Neal and Gilliam, they are primarily special teams stars who no longer see regular snaps on O or D. That makes them ripe for being let go, but maybe more likely a pay cut. The White situation is a mess. He has a bonus coming due soon. He also has now had two major injuries in the last few seasons. I have zero idea what Beane is thinking, but if I had to guess he’ll extend his contract with void years to bring down the cap hit to keep a key person in the organization and allow the White to rehab properly. Maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part. I’d release Harty, but with Hines now gone, the odds of Harty returning as a depth WR and kick returner just went up. PS thanks for the compliment. I am a visual learner and I often create lists like this because it helps me understand where all the puzzle pieces go, especially when you looking at a list on some websites that list some 90 names associated with the team.

Would not be a huge surprise. Cover1 had him on their list as a possible move before the off-season started. Not sure how much savings there will be. My guess is about 3.5 .

What Spotrac does is calculate the cap based on the top 51 contracts including futures contracts. Thus a move like releasing Hines only saves 3.66 because someone on a futures deal takes his roster spot. I'm not sure if this is the proper way or not to view the cap, but it does make sense.

That's the absolute minimum. He needs to create another 10+ to be able to sign his draft picks and he'll need at least another 20+ to complete the roster with FAs. As I noted above 67.5 is still to go. Josh's 24, will leave 43.5 to go.

Hines to be released. Could he return on a futures deal to camp for a tryout if healthy?

Edit by BuffaloBill (moderator): I thought I would create one thread and do the following: Merge the current cap projection threads Provide a daily update for 2024 in the first post from sportrac and over the cap as being primary sources While not a reliable # yet, update daily, in the first post, the 2025 projections from the same sources The remainder of the thread will contain “normal” chatter on the topic. 2024 projections 4/03/2024 - 3pm Sportrac: $4,244,255 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Original Thread Start by GASabresIUFan : BIlls' Offseason transactions: 1. McGovern's contract restructured. Cap Savings $3.74 Million 2. Bills release RB Hines. Cap Savings $4.66 million 3. Bates traded to Chicago for a 5th. Cap Savings $1.44 Million. 4. Poyer Released - cap savings $5.47 million 5. Neal Released - cap savings $2.88 million 6. Edwards re-signs -2 years $6 million. Cap Hit 2.31 (spotrac) 7. Douglas contract restructure - cap savings $5.5 million 8. Morse released - cap savings $8.47 million 9. Harty released - cap savings $4.195 10. White released (June 1) - cap savings $10 million 11. Matt Haack signed - cap cost 985K 12. Von Miller restructured - cap savings $8.855 million 13. Rapp re-signed - 3 years for 14.5 million - cap hit 2.842 million 14. Trubisky signed -2 years for $5.25 - cap hit 2.0 million 15. Morris re-signed - 1 year 985K - cap hit 985K 16. Knox pay cut & restructure - cap savings $6.4 million. 17. Dawkins extended - 3 years 60.5 million - cap savings $5.1 Million (updated 3/15) 18. Cam Lewis re-signs - 2 years 4 million - cap charge $1,481,500 19. Epenesa re-signs - 2 years $12 million +incentives - cap charge 3.94 20. Allen restructure - 16.7 million in cap savings $16.7 million 21. DaQuan Jones re-signs - 2 years 16 million - cap charge $4.5 million 22. Nick Marrow LB signs - 1 year $ 1.5 million - cap $1.5 million. 23. Mack Hollins WR signs - 1 year 2.6 million - cap hit $2.48 million. 24. Ty Johnson re-signs - 1 year 1.292 - cap hit 1.152 million. 25. Curtis Samuel signs - 3 yrs 24 million+, cap hit $3.405 26. Taron Johnson extended - 3 yrs 31 million. Cap saving $3.968 27. Casey Toohill DE/Edge - signed 1 year 1.125 - cap hit 1.015 million 28. Mike Edwards S - 1yr deal $2.8. milliom - cap hit $2.8 million 29. Will Clapp OG/C - 1 year deal $1,292,500 - cap hit $1.1525 30. Austin Johnson DL - 1 year deal - $3.5 million - cap hit $2.277 w 2 void years. 31. DeShawn Williams DT - 1 year deal - $1.155 and Cap hit - $1.015 32. Stefon Diggs (& 2 picks) traded for a 2nd rd pick in 2025 -Dead Cap Hit $31,096,000 33. La'al Collins OL signed - Contract 1yr up to $6.25 - Cap hit TBD Spotrac has us with approx 4,244,255 of cap space. Collins' new deal not account for yet! Player movement & contract change summary: New Players (10) - Trubisky, Marrow, Hillins, Samuel, Toohill, M Edwards, Clapp, A Johnson, De Williams & Collins Returnees (8) - D Edwards, Haack, Rapp, Morris, Lewis, Epenesa, Jones, & Ty Johnson Extensions (2) - Dawkins & Ta Johnson Restructures (5) - McGovern, Douglas, Miller, Knox, & Allen Releases/Trades (8) - Diggs (HOU), Bates (CHI), White (LAR), Poyer (MIA), Morse (JAC), Neal (MIA), Harty & Hines (CLE) Other roster changes from 2023: UFAs signed elsewhere (8): Davis (Jac), Floyd (SF), D Jackson (CAR), Settle (HOU), Dodson (SEA), Ford (LAC), Sherfield (MIN), and K Allen (PIT) UFAs unsigned (7): Hyde, Phillips, Matakevich, Harris (retired), Joseph, Murray & Lawson Current depth chart (Starters in Bold) Specialists - Bass (PK), Haack (P) & Ferguson (LS) - I think Haack beats out Martin Offense QB - Allen & Trubisky RB - Cook, Ty Johnson, DRAFT PICK, Gilliam WR -Shakir, Samuel, DRAFT PICK, Hollins, Shorter & possible 2nd draft pick TE - Kincaid, Knox & Morris OL - Brown, Dawkins, D. Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Van Demark, Clapp, Anderson, Collins & DRAFT PICK Defense DL - Rousseau, Oliver, Jones, Miller, Epenesa, DS Williams, Jonathan, Toohill, A. Johnson & DRAFT PICK LB - Milano, Benard, Do Williams, Spector, & Morrow CB - Ta Johnson, Benford, Douglas, Elam, Lewis (S) & DRAFT PICK S - M. Edwards, Rapp, Hamlin & DRAFT PICK

Beane will probably now sign him to a futures contract, let him come to camp, and see where he is at physically. If he is healthy and has a good camp, then you keep him for a veteran minimum contract, if not he can do the practice squad and rehab there.

He was my pick before yesterday and still is my pick. Mr. AD Mitchell come on down. His time at UGA was enough. Size, speed and great hands.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, I just realize that Beane never quite does things the way people think he will right or wrong. My hope is that a couple of receivers fall, enabling Beane to trade down into the very early second round and replace the 3rd round pick he used to acquire Douglas. Now with 4 top 100 picks he'll be able to add a good WR, and well-regarded players at S, DT, and Edge. I'm also hopeful another scenario plays out where Van Pran (to become our future No. 1 C) falls into the 90's and the Bills grab him, trade Bates for a late 3rd or early 4th and then use that pick on a safety. So something like this. Pick 28 -traded to Ari for 35 and 90. (or to Car for 33 & 102 +) Pick 35 - Draft a WR - hopefully Mitchell is available, but Worthy, Legette, Polk or McConkey will all work Pick 60- DL like Jenkins Fiske, Hall or Orhorhoro or Edge like Kneeland, Elliss or Isaac Pick 90 - Van Pran - C Pick 99 - Edge, DL or Safety Pick 129 - Edge, DL, Safety or a 2nd WR

How WR plays out might be dependent on how well Beane does fixing his D Line, Edge rushers, and safeties in free agency. The better he does there the less likely he'll use his 3 premium draft picks on defensive players and the more likely he drafts a WR early. Don't forget in Beane's tenure in Buffalo he has never drafted a WR in the first 3 rounds and has only drafted one safety (Hamlin). However, he has used 5 premium picks (rounds 1-3) on D Lineman including Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, H Phillips, and Oliver. The drafting of a WR may also be dependent on how the draft plays out. What happens if all the WRs the Bills have a 1st-rd grade on are gone by 28?

Most people aren't going to like this post and this is not what I want to happen this offseason. However, this is a plausible scenario for the budget-conscious Bills. 1. Diggs remains in his current position 2. Shakir moves to Davis' former job. (Shakir is about the same size as Diggs. Shakir is 6'0 190; Diggs is 6'0 191). They also have similar speed. Shakir ran 4.43 at the combine in 2022. Diggs ran 4.46 in 2015. Also, both were 5th-round picks and had similar prospect grades of 6.18 for Shakir and 6.10 for Diggs. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/khalil-shakir/32005348-4110-7427-f34a-bb0aa1d8e556 and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/stefon-diggs/32004449-4721-8895-fc23-d2bf4c921bd4 3. Harty returns at a reduced rate (2 mill?) to be the slot receiver and kick returner. 4. Shorter (who is 6'4") takes over Sherfield's role and maybe eventually pushes for Davis' former job. 5. Brady expands Knox and Kincaids' roles to the point that a 5th WR isn't needed as Kincaid essentially becomes the "big" receiver and Knox goes back to his primary role as a blocker and safety valve for Allen. 6. The Bills draft someone like Luke McCaffery or Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint later in the draft for depth and development, while utilizing the premium draft picks to build depth on the D line and safety. 7. They also sign a cheap veteran like Chris Moore as additional depth. Much of this scenario depends on how Brady, Beane, and McD feel about Shorter and Harty. Does Brady think he can get more out of Harty? How do they feel about Shorter's development?

I’d like to see things happen faster as well, but it will get done because it has too. People keep mentioning Beane’s poor drafting, because Rousseau and a few others haven’t reached star status. I’m going to have to respectfully disagree. Beane has done a solid job drafting especially lately. This past season we have 6 starters, all good, from the last two draft classes alone. Benford is a solid NFL starting CB from the 6th round. Shakir is a 5th pick. Kincaid is on his way to stardom and maybe Benard as well. His first class in 2018 features 7 guys still in the NFL including pro-bowlers/All Pros Allen, Edmunds, Taron Johnson (4th rd) and Wyatt (5th rd). Phillips is now a solid starter for the Vikings. When I look at the draft, I think a GM needs to find potential starters or major contributors in the first 3 rounds. Finding contributors or even starters after that is gravy. The only true busts are Basham and Ford with the jury being out on Elam. Truthfully his biggest mistake was letting Teller get away. For the Rousseau bashers, did you know he played his off side this entire season because of Miller and still graded out as one of best players each week?

"Pats now have 101 million in cap space - What would you do with that?" ----- Lose!

No problem. l’m a little cranky in the morning.

I general agree that at least one will be back next season and a high likelihood that both will return. However, because of the Bills cap situation and how their contracts are structured I couldn’t decide which one has the higher likelihood of returning. I also factored in that Morse might retire and that the Bills may be able to trade Bates for an asset and give Anderson the backup C job to save cap. So given the uncertainty around both players, I thought it best to put them in Group 2. I also wrote that I thought all the players in groups 1-3 (35 players in all) would be back with the Bills next season in some capacity. I think a couple of the group 3 could end up on the practice squad.

? What am I running back? I’m the guy saying 12-14 free agents. I am the guy saying don’t sign a vet WR. How is that “running it back”? I am the guy who has posted numerous times to dump Harty and Hines and not look back. However, regardless of what I want, we have to be realistic on who Beane may bring back just on restructured terms. That’s why group 4 exists to illustrate which vets are vulnerable to being cut or restructured. The last group (Group 7) on the original post are FAs who played for us last year that no one wants back. The 6th group are guys the Bills may be looking to bring back or are guys people on this board have posted that they want back. As I have posted elsewhere, this team is getting younger and cheaper because it has to and that’s a good thing. I believe 6-7 draftees will make the team next fall. If you turnover 40% of the roster as I have predicted (6-7 draftees plus 12-14 FAs) I’d say that’s a pretty big year over year change).

Won't have a realistic idea of who they can sign until we see how much money we have to sign them with. My guess is we'll have about 20 million to spend on FAs, but maybe as many as 12-14 players to spend it on.

Yep, and that's why the draft and not wasting any cap on bad players (Harty, Sherfield etc...) is so important this off-season if the Bills are going to contend. The good news is this is a deep draft at safety and WR, two areas where we desperately need cheap and talented players. We currently have 10 draft picks. I estimate that Beane is going to have to sign 12-14 FAs to complete his roster without a huge amount of cap to work with. The good news is that he probably only needs 2-3 of them to be starters. My guess is one starter at DT, one safety, and one DE or Edge player. If Miller has a good camp, then Beane may only need a DT and Safety to start from his FAs. I'm expecting (hoping?) that Davis' replacement comes from the draft.

You'd think so, but after looking at his snap counts on defense and special teams and his only 40K dead cap if released, I concluded that he could lose his job very easily to someone else. He played only 17 snaps on defense all last season (1.59%). The only full-time player who played less on defense was Matakevich at 16 snaps. However, Matakevich played 343 snaps on special teams (80%) to Hamlin's 94 (22%). Matakevich isn't likely to return this coming season. If he isn't, I don't see why Hamlin would. This would be a very sad ending in Buffalo for a player who was developing nicely before his near-death experience. I truly hope he continues to work his way back, but if he doesn't make the team, I would hope the Bills add him to the organization in some capacity.

The nice thing about this exercise is that it shows visually where the depth is on the roster and where the needs are. We need 1 backup QB, 2 backup RB, 2-4 WRs, as many as 5 D Linemen, up to 4 safeties, and maybe a depth CB and depth LB.