GASabresIUFan

By the way there are 53 different Wideouts who caught 1000 yards worth of passes in a season in the last 5 years. Only Diggs was 1000+ all 5 years. They were drafted as follows top 10 - 8 11-20 - 5 21-32 - 6 (DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Hopkins, Jefferson, Ridley, Marq Brown) (1st rd 19 total) 2nd rd - 15 3rd rd - 10 4th rd - 1 (Amun-Ra St Brown) 5th rd - 5 (Diggs, Hill, Nacua, Mooney & Renfrow) 6th rd - 0 7th rd - 1 (Julian Edelman) UDFA - 2 (Adam Thielen & Robbie Anderson)

How many of these “franchise” WRs have won a Super Bowl? From the list in the OP, I think the answer is zero. The Bills are certainly looking for the best WR they can find in the draft, but it is not imperative that they get a “star” with their pick at 28 or 60. What they need is someone who can stretch the field and catch at least 65-70% of his opportunities. Brady’s offense is about spreading the ball around. Hard to double team one guy, if there are 4 guys on the field equally capable. The Bills already have 4 capable pass catchers in Kincaid, Shakir, Cook and Samuel. What they don’t have is a big WR with speed who can force defenses to be more spread out enabling Kincaid and Samuel to flourish underneath. I am excited to see what Shakir can do on the boundary. He had 17 explosive plays last season on just 45 targets. All we really need from the rookie is about 40-45 catches for 650 yards. Anything more than that is gravy. If he become a first year star along the lines of Jordan Addison or Jaylen Reed all the better. PS: I think the “hit” definition in the OP is much too limiting. A good draft pick is someone who becomes a starter and hopefully plays for a decade. We may be disappointed in Gabe Davis, but the guy caught 2700 yards over his 4 years with 27 TDs. That good production from any WR pick, much less a 4th rounder. Curtis Samuel has over 4000 yards from scrimmage over his 7 year career (2 years with limited PT due to injury). He was a very solid draft pick and is now the Bills starting slot receiver.

The Bills aren’t trading Elam. They didn’t extended Douglas for a reason. That reason, I believe, is that they want to see how Elam develops this season before writing him off. If Elam develops, Elam steps in for Douglas in 2025, if not they can re-sign Douglas, draft a replacement or sign someone else. That said, don’t be surprised if they draft someone in the 4th rd as insurance.

Whomever the Bills draft won’t have to be the “savior.” Between Kincaid, Cook, Samuel and Shakir, the Bills already have 4 good targets. Plus Knox and Hollins, who, while not primary targets, are perfectly capable of making 20-30 catches (or more in Knox’s case) next season. This means the cupboard is by no means bare. If the rookie WR proves capable, then so much the better. Right now we can put in ink Shakir, Samuel and Hollins as part of the WR room next season. This leaves 2-3 open jobs. I suspect Beane will carry 6 wideouts next season vs the 5 from last year. One job will go to the early rd WR pick. The other job(s) will go to whomever management likes between Shorter, (hopefully) another draft pick, Hamler, and/or Isabella.

With the 28th pick in the 2024 NFL draft the Buffalo Bills select …….

Rene Robert.

Rattler may have an NFL future, but he is no Pat Mahomes. Mahomes threw for 9705 yards with 77 TDs and only 25 picks his last two years in college as Texas Tech's starter.

There are always a few running backs that get shuffled down the draft board and then once they get the right opportunity in the pros they shine. Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rd pickin 2017. Kyren Williams was a 5th rd pick in 2022 and Zamir White was a 4th rd pick in 2022. LVR finally made White the starter and in the last 4 weeks he put up nearly 400 yards on 84 carries. Achane was a 3rd rd pick last season. Roschon Johnson was a 4th rd pick last year. There are a couple of bigger backs that seem like they could be available in the 4th or 5th rd I believe would make the Bills a better team. Isaac Guerendo is one of those guys. The guy is 6' 221 who ran a 4.33 at the combine.

He also didn't run as fast as people hoped.

The more I read about Josh and DIggs this seems like addition by subtraction. The Bills have a new OC, the Bills went 7-2 with that OC and a diminished role for Diggs. Josh was much better at spreading the ball around to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook who rewarded him by catching 80% of his throws as opposed to Davis and Diggs who caught 61% or less. The Bills also clear an expensive Prima Donna out of the locker-room. We may look back at the Diggs trade and call it Josh Freedom Day. Now Josh can literally scan the field and throw to who is open instead of force feeding Diggs to keep him happy. I wonder if the dropped ball against KC was the last straw for Diggs in Buffalo. People are justifiably worried about how we make up the 241 targets, 152 catches, 1926 yards and 15 TDs that walked out the door with Diggs and Davis. Add in Harty, Murray, Sherfield and Harris and you have another 67 Targets to re-allocate. I'd argue that this is a classic Moneyball situation where we'll make up for the loss in the aggregate. Josh targets a Receiver (TE, RB or WR) about 550 times per season. Next season Knox (36 targets), Kincaid (91), Shakir (45) and Ty Johnson (7) all should have expanded roles with Kincaid likely going form 90 to 120 targets and Shakir going as high as 85 or 90. Beane signs UFAs Samuel (92 tgts) and Hollins (30) and I can easily see them repeating those numbers in Buffalo. Now add a high draft pick at WR to the mix. Davis, as a rookie, was targeted about 65 times, and that seems like a reasonable place to start for a new player. Kincaid 91 --> 120 Shakir 45 --> 90 Samuel 92 --> 90 Rookie WR 0 --> 65 Cook 54 --> 60 Knox 36 --> 50 Hollins 30 --> 30 Johnson 7 --> 30 Others 6 --> 10 This allocation would actually decrease the throws to the receivers (from 330 to 280), but increase the usage of the TEs (from 130 to 170). This would be a much more balanced passing attack and make it much much harder to defenses to defend.

Trade Recap 4 trades 1. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 26 2024: Round 3, Pick 92 Tampa Bay Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 2024: Round 4, Pick 128 2024: Round 5, Pick 144 2024: Round 5, Pick 163 2. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 3, Pick 66 2024: Round 4, Pick 104 2024: Round 5, Pick 162 2024: Round 6, Pick 186 Arizona Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 2024: Round 4, Pick 133 2024: Round 5, Pick 160 2024: Round 7, Pick 248 3. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 108 2024: Round 5, Pick 157 Minnesota Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 104 2024: Round 6, Pick 200 4. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 165 2024: Round 6, Pick 218 Baltimore Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 162 My Selections 26 - Traded up a few slots to get Thomas as well as moving 3 later picks to get back into the 3rd rd Brian Thomas Jr. WR | LSU 66 - Traded down 6 slots to basically add a early 4th rd pick. Bralen Trice EDGE | Washington 92 - Tall Safety with good speed Calen Bullock S | USC 108 -Traded down from 104 to move pick 200 up 43 slots to 157 Mekhi Wingo DL | LSU 157 - Big Power back to compliment Cook and Johnson Isaac Guerendo RB | Louisville 165 - traded down from 160 to add a later pick (218) Christian Jones OT | Texas 186 - added a 2nd WR to add needed depth at WR - like Johnson's speed and hands Cornelius Johnson WR | Michigan 204 -Only original pick Delmar Glaze IOL | Maryland 218 - a very solid corner for this late in the draft Dwight McGlothern CB | Arkansas

I don't think so either. He looks like a 5/6 to me as well, but an injury opens the door for someone to step up.

I don’t disagree, but it shows the luck of the draft sometimes. Maybe Shorter becomes the breakout Bill this year, like Shakir last year.

The Bills drafted Shorter last year in the 5th rd. The next 2 WRs off the board were Donta Wicks and Puka Nacua. Oops!

Please Beane do not trade for a WR under any circumstances. Trade up in the draft if you have to, but it's time to finally invest in skill help at WR in the draft and develop our own young talent. Lets look at our skill position drafting under Beane. TEs: Kincaid (1st rd 2023), Knox (3rd rd 2019), Tommy Sweeney (7th rd 2019) & Quintin Morris (UDFA). RBs: Cook (2nd rd 2022), Moss (3rd rd 2020) & Singletary (3rd rd 2019) WRs: Davis (4th rd 2020), Shakir (5th rd 2022), Shorter (5th rd 2022), Stevenson (6th rd 2021), Hodgins (6th rd 2020), Ray-Ray McCloud (7th rd 2018), and Austin Proehl (7th rd 2018) Not surprisingly the highest drafted player is the best one in each group. Also not surprising, is the lack of long-term success in finding good WRs. Hard to find good ones without investing drafting capital in the position. Even if Shakir breaks that mold and becomes Diggs 2.0, it's long past time for Beane to invest in a top WR or two. He finally used 1st & 2nd rd picks on talent at RB and TE and both were huge upgrades over the incumbent talent. Cook finished 3rd in scrimmage yards as a 1st year starter last season and Kincaid produced more yards as rookie then Knox had in any season of his 5 year career.

I thought about making this it’s own thread, but I think it works better here. There is a good case for the Bills to draft at least 2 WRs in upcoming draft. The Bills really only have 2 good WRs on the roster (Shakir and Samuel) and only one with experience as a Bill (Shakir). I’m not a Hollins fan and feel he’ll work best as a special teams player rather. He only played on 30% of the Falcons O snaps last season and only was targeted only 30 times. He also isn’t fast. Shorter is under contract, but is a complete unknown, but his size and speed are very similar to Hollins. Given Beane’s statements on improving the speed in the WR room, the best I see for Shorter and Hollins, is playing as the 5th and 6th options. IMHO this opens up two jobs. The first will be a deep threat replacement for Davis and the second will be a player for an expanded Harty role as the 4th receiving option and primary kick returner. Given that backdrop and the depth in this draft, I see Beane grabbing a tall fast receiver like Mitchell, Worthy, Thomas, Pearsall or Walker with one of his top 60 picks and then using one of our 4th rd or 5th rd picks on another speedy receiver. A couple of names that look intriguing are Luke McCaffrey, who actually out ran his brother at the combine, Cornelius Johnson, and a late flier in Bub Means. All 3 guys have decent size and speed.

Bills were 5-5 under Dorsey with 26.2 pts/g and 370.1 yards/g 1st D/g 22 Under Brady 7-2 with 27.1 pts/g and 377.9 yards/g 1st D/g 23.6 The offense was slightly better, but the record was significantly better.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2024/01/22/stefon-diggs-josh-allen-dropped-pass-bills-chiefs/ video in the article.

Don’t we have a guy considered to be the best Nickel Corner in the NFL? Don’t we have a RB who finished 3rd in scrimmage yards with almost 1600 yards? What about Milano and Dawkins? How long until Benard and Kincaid are consider top impact players. Shakir put up elite production on just 45 targets. What might happen if he gets 100 next season? Calling someone “elite” or an impact player is always hindsight anyway. Miller was an impact player when we got him, but isn’t now. Diggs’ impact disappeared mid-season in 2023.

His decline began at least 4 weeks before Brady became OC in week 11. I believe Brady spreading the ball around was partly adjusting to Diggs’ decline. The truth is the offense with Diggs as the focus wasn’t working. Involving Cook, Kincaid and Shakir was necessary to get the offense back on track. If Diggs didn’t like it, it’s just another reason for Beane to have moved on.

I think Bass' issues may stem from Martin as a holder. I think it's one of the reason they brought Haack back.

NC States Payton Wilson. Best ILB on the board but with a second round grade.

Probably. Is the Bills version of ROR? Did Pegula want him gone also?

What I can't get over is the drop in Diggs' catch %. I don't think that has anything to do with Brady, and everything to do with Diggs. It's also not like Diggs stopped being the focus of the passing attack under Brady. Diggs was targeted 111 times from week 7 through the playoffs. Kincaid was targeted 83 times and Shakir 52. The difference was Diggs had 636 yards on his 111 targets, Kincaid 659 on his 83 targets and Shakir 646 on his 52. Hard to blame Brady when Diggs wasn't being effective.

The question of Elite players keeps coming up and is a fair question. Besides Milano (when healthy) and Taron Johnson, who is the elite player on the Bils defense? Trying to be objective, I think the answer is potentially Benard. Being "elite" is also a very hard question. Neither Hyde or Poyer were considered elite when the Bills signed them. On offense, I think we have elite players. Allen, Cook, Dawkins, and Kincaid are all elite players. Torrence and possibly Shakir have that potential as well if they build on last season. Cook finished 4th in rushing and 3rd in scrimmage yards by a RB last season. That's elite production. That's very fair, especially Hyde, Poyer and Diggs.