GASabresIUFan

We started Kincaid and Torrence last year. I never even considered the possibility that Coleman wouldn't start unless he gets injured (G-d forbid). The starting WRs next season are Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. Everyone else is battling for WR4, WR5 and maybe a WR6. Hollins is making the team as a special teams ace and part time receiver. After that everyone else is just battling for a job. My money is on Claypool. MVS barely catches 50% of his targets. What do we need that for? Hamler is small and fast but injury prone. Shorter is tall but slow. That leaves Claypool who is big and fast. If he has a good pre-season, he'll win the job.

The players most similar to Coleman drafted where Coleman was are Higgins (33rd) and Pittman (34th) in 2020. Higgins had 900 yards as a rookie and Pittman only 500, but Pittman was not an immediate starter like Coleman will be. Also the average WR drafted 25-40 over the last 5 seasons has averaged 600+ yards and only one true bust. I think it's perfectly reasonable to project Coleman at or around 700 yards next season.

I think people need a refresher on which receivers were and were not effective for the Bills last season. After week 6, these were the top receivers numbers through the playoffs (players listed by total yards) 1. Kincaid - 659 yards on 83 tgts/ 64 catches 3TDs; 77% reception rate, 7.94 yards per target 2. Shakir - 646 yards on 52/45 3TDs (2 in the playoffs); 86.5% receptions rate, 12.42 yards/target 3. Diggs - 636 yards on 111/68 3TDs; 61.3% reception rate, 5.73 yards/target 4. Davis - 405 yards on 51/22 3TDs; 43% reception rate, 7.94 yards/target 5. Cook - 331 yards on 45/38 4TDs; 84.4% reception rate; 7.36 yards/target Is it really any wonder that Beane moved on from Diggs and Davis, while keeping Shakir, Cook and Kincaid. They are younger, cheaper and probably better at this point. We need to move past this "must have a no. 1 receiver" crap. It’s time to spread the ball around to players who actually catch the vast majority of their targets and stop lamenting about the loss of an over 30 vet with declining production who clearly isn’t a fit for Brady’s offense. Give me a roster with 5 or 6 guys with 500-900 yards receiving next season and I’ll give you a playoff team that will be hard to stop.

But KC's depth behind Kelce and Rice was Justin Watson and MVS who may not even make the Bills. Pacheco was their best RB. Our 3rd and 4th option and RB are all better players. That KC won with defense and really only 2 consistent options catching the ball is a true testament to Reid and Mahomes.

I said capable. I didn’t say it was going to happen. However, Shakir (5 targets) and Kincaid (19 targets), who were basically not thrown to for the first 6 weeks last season. Then from week 7 through the playoffs Shakir put up 646 (on only 52 targets). That’s a 845 yard pace or 12.43 yards per target. What if he now gets say 90 targets? At 12.43 per target that’s 1118 yards. By the way Shakir jumped from 161 to 611 (+75 in the playoffs) between year 1 & year 2. This season he’ll be a primary target for the first time. Kincaid had 659 yards on 83 targets from week 7 through the playoffs or about 8 yards per target. That translates to about 872 yards over a full season of proper usage. Is it really much of a stretch to say he’ll be even better over a full season when integrated into the offense in his 2nd year and from day 1? As to Samuel he had 1000 yards from scrimmage when last he played for Brady. If anyone knows how to get the most out of Samuel it’s Brady and Josh will be the best QB he’s played with. As to Coleman, his game, speed and size are similar to Higgins and Pittman who were drafted 33rd and 34th in 2020. Each has become a 1000 yard receiver. Higgins had 900+ as a rookie. Josh is going to throw for 4300-4500 next season. Those yards are going to be divided much more equitably than in years past. Remember Diggs (160), Davis (81), Sherfield (22) and Harty (21) had 284 targets last season. Those opportunities are going to go somewhere. Is it really hard to believe that Kincaid will go from 80 to 120, Shakir 50 to 90, Samuel gets his usually 95 and Coleman gets 60-70?

If you look at all the work they put into Coleman including a top 30 visit and a private workout, they are is no way they weren’t high on Coleman. Also they chose Coleman over McConkey and Mitchell.

Once MVS signed their was no reason to gamble on Cephus.

This is going to be a crazy camp for all the receivers including Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. Shakir is the only significant9 returnee and he may be playing a new position. Coleman and Samuel have never played with Josh. Everyone else is new to the organization or in the case of Isabella, Shavers and Shorter, have limited or no actual regular season PT with the Bills. I honestly don;t know how this will shake out which is why I started the thread. I do wonder how they will adequately evaluate all these potential targets for Josh while Josh has to work to build chemistry with the starters (Samuel, Coleman and Shakir). The veteran player that most intrigues me is Claypool. He is big and fast, but has worn out his welcome in three previous places. Still at 25 there is real potential that can be recovered. 2 800 yard seasons are hard to ignore.

Shakir, Samuel, and Coleman have guaranteed roster spots. So which strand(s) of spaghetti stick to wall (make the roster)? Will the Bills keep 2 or 3 of the strands? 1. Mack Hollins - 1 year $2,600,000 (cap hit 2.48 - Dead Cap -$1.1) 6'4" 221, age 30, 4th rd pikc (118th Philly) in 2017 out of UNC 40 - 4.53, 10 - 1.59 Career - 95 games, 27 starts, 222 Tgt, 131 Rec, 1691 yards, 12.9 yards/c, 59% reception % Best - 2022 - 17g, 16 starts 94 Tgt, 57 Rec, 690 yards, 12.1 yards/c, 60.6% reception % 2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 1 year $1,125,000 (cap hit 1.125 - Dead Cap -$TBD) 6'4" 206, age 29, 5th rd pick (174th) in 2018 out of S Florida. 40 - 4.37, 10 - 1.49 Career - 92 games, 60 starts, 370 Tgt, 186 Rec, 3155 yards, 17 yards/c, 50.3% reception % Best - 2020 - 16g, 12 starts 63 Tgt, 33 Rec, 690 yards, 20.9 yards/c, 52.4% reception % 3. Chase Claypool - 1 year $1,135,000 (cap hit 1.085 - Dead Cap -$25K) 6'4" 238, age 25, 2nd rd pick (49th, Pitt) in 2020 out of ND. 40 - 4.42, 10 - 1.52 Career - 58 games, 32 starts, 314 Tgt, 175 Rec, 2261 yards, 12.9 yards/c, 55.7% reception % Best - 2020 - 16g, 6 starts 109 Tgt, 62 Rec, 873 yards, 14.1 yards/c, 56.9% reception % 4. KJ Hamler - 1 year $1,055,000 (cap hit 1.055 - Dead Cap -0) 5'9" 178, age 24, 2nd rd pick (46th, Den) in 2020 out of Penn St. 40 - 4.36, Career - 23 games, 6 starts, 80 Tgt, 42 Rec, 620 yards, 14.8 yards/c, 52.5% reception % Best - 2020 - 13g, 4 starts 56 Tgt, 30 Rec, 381 yards, 12.7 yards/c, 53.6% reception % 5. Quintez Cephus - 1 year $1,055,000 (cap hit $1.055 - Dead Cap -8K) 6'1" 208, age 26, 5th rd pick (166th, Det) in 2020 out of Wisconsin. 40 - 4.73, 10 - 1.59 Career - 22 games, 6 starts, 60 Tgt, 37 Rec, 568 yards, 15.4 yards/c, 61.7% reception % Best - 2020 - 13g, 2 starts 35 Tgt, 20 Rec, 349 yards, 17.5 yards/c, 61.8% reception % 6. Andy Isabella - 1 year $1,133,000 (cap hit 993K - Dead Cap -8K) 5'9" 188, age 27, 2nd rd pick (62nd, AZ) in 2019 out of U Mass. 40 - 4.31, 10 - 1.45 Career - 43 games, 3 starts, 54 Tgt, 33 Rec, 447 yards, 13.5 yards/c, 61.1% reception % Best - 2020 - 13g, 2 starts 35 Tgt, 21 Rec, 224 yards, 10.7 yards/c, 60% reception % 7. Justin Shorter - 3 years $4,163,948 (cap hit $876K - Dead Cap - 243K) 6'4" 229, age 24, 5th rd pick (150 th, Buf) in 2023 out of Florida. 40 - 4.55, 10 - 1.59 8. Tyrell Shavers - 2 yr $1,764,000 (cap hit $799.5 - Dead Cap - 9K) 6'4" 211, age 24, UDFA (Buf) in 2023 out of San Diego St. 40 - 4.59, 10 - 1.63

Special teams

Can we play the 2024 season first and see how that goes?

I had trouble signing in through the website, but the Ipad and Iphone apps seem to be working.

No, just no. The guy only caught 50% of his targets with Pat Mahomes as his QB.

Instead of starting a new thread I thought I’d add some thoughts from TBN’s interview with Bills Exec Torrence Gray as it seems like a nice complimentary to the embedded video. https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-terrance-gray-brandon-beane/article_63b36b42-0c6b-11ef-bf81-63b40f6a2aa7.html Really insightful info in the article. I received a real feel for the Bills process in general and what specifically they were looking for in this draft. It’s pretty clear they were looking to fill needs with veteran college players ready to contribute now. Carter, Van Pran, Davis, Solomon, and Ulofoshio all played 40+ college games. The Senior Bowl (and East West game to a lesser extent) practices and interviews were huge factors on who Beane drafted. The Bills attended the pro-days for all 10 draftees, but only Coleman had a private workout and a top 30 interview. Most of the guys had leadership roles on their respective college teams. Work ethic (or “want to”) was a major factor; aka guys who want to get better. Gray pointed out how Ulofoshio started as a walk on and earned a scholarship. They also have a special process of special teams guys like kick returners. They also looked for special athletes on their late round OL. Grable started as a 230 lbs QB. After reading the article, I really like all the picks. I know most won’t pan out long-term for a variety of reasons, but it won’t be for a lack of trying. I’ve been a Bills fan all my life. The first game I attended as a little kid was 1969, but for some reason this particular off-season has really elevated my interest in the team. Maybe it’s my curiosity on how Beane was going to get the team out of cap hell (which he created), while somehow making the team younger and better. Outside of safety (I’ll feel better if Bishop bests out Rapp or Edwards), I think he has actually accomplished those goals. I’ve been wanting Beane to invest in receivers for years and he has finally done it with Kincaid and Coleman.

Wasn’t Shakir a starter last year?

Your Ted Washington analogy doesn’t work with a WR group that has 2-4 players spread across the field on every play. Neither does your comment that our receivers are career complimentary players. Samuel is a career starter. Shakir is a 3rd year player who was finally moved into the game plan until week 7 and will be a 1st year full time starter. Once Shakir got into the lineup he became a serious weapon with 600+ yards on only 45 targets (with 17 explosive plays). This is 850 yards pace in a full season. Kincaid, once he was fully inserted also in week 7, also paced at around 850 yards. Considering their youth to pigeon hole them as “complimentary” players is extremely premature. Kincaid is on his way to being our Kelce. Last I looked Kelce was a player that demanded “extra attention.”

Beane has already said that money isn’t going to a WR. I think he said in a recent interview that the June 1 money is going to used to sign the rookies and for operating cap space. I think what he means by that is having cap room to add someone like Douglas in case of injury during the season. I’m pretty bullish on the plan. I watched the Packers 4 1st and 2nd year receivers and 2 1st and 2nd years TEs put on a show last season and the Bills group of Kincaid, Knox, Coleman, Samuel, and Shakir are at least if not more talented. If one of Claypool, Cephus or Hamler can beat out Hollins for the 4th WR job all the better.

You are on the right track. Beane’s goal is not to replace the ball hogging Diggs, but to make up his production in the aggregate with 4 more or less equal targets in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Coleman. Instead of having one 1200 yard receivers, he’ll field an armada for 4 guys all capable of 900-1000 yards. We may have a different receiving leader each week, because the game plan will be designed to exploit the weaknesses in opposing defenses. If the team can’t stop the run, they’ll receive a steady diet of Cook and Davis. If they can’t cover the slot, they’ll receive a steady diet of Kincaid and Shakir. If they can’t cover the outside, Coleman and Samuel will be the weapons. The goal is to make the Bills’ offense a matchup nightmare for DCs.

Again, Coleman isn’t replacing Diggs. He is a completely different kind of player. Coleman is replacing Davis. Samuel or Shakir will be replacing Diggs. Davis 6’2” 225 Coleman 6’3” 213 Diggs 6’0“ 191 Shakir 6’0” 190 Samuel 5’11” 195 Samuel or Shakir on the outside is going to be one of the big questions in camp. Shakir is know as an excellent route runner both inside and out. Both guys have experience outside experience. Shakir’s outside experience was primarily in college. Samuel’s does have outside NFL experience but it’s about 26% of his snaps. Samuel’s better speed might ultimately be the deciding factor.

I'm beginning to think Keon made be the most over scrutinized draft pick ever other than a QB.

Keon wasn't drafted in the 1st rd. By the way, since 2019 there have been 10 WR drafted from 25-40. Of the 10, only N'Keal Harry has been a bust so far. The average rookie season is 573 yards. Remove Harry and the average jumps to 625. Higgins (33rd), Pittman (34th), Deebo Samuel (36th) and Aiyuk (25th) are the biggest stars so far from this group. In fact, 5 of the 6 players drafted in 2019 and 2020, classes most similar to this year, have exceeded 1000 yards in a season so far, except the Harry.

This isn’t accurate. Coleman is an upgrade on Davis. Odds are that either Samuel or Shakir will line up in Diggs’ old position. The rationale for Samuel is his raw speed and similar size to Diggs and some experience on the boundary. The rationale for Shakir is his nearly identical size and speed to Diggs coupled with his track record of being more explosive than Diggs once he catches the ball. Remember Diggs’ career yards per reception is about 12 vs. Shakir’s 15+.

While certainly not a "bad" trade, it does look like the Bills didn't get any compensation for moving down. IMHO the team trading up should give more value than they receive just like Buffalo did in their 2022 and 2023 trade-ups and Carolina paid Buffalo on the second trade down in 2024. For Example KC (28, 144, 248 = 223 pts), Buf (32, 95, 221 = 227) +4

I guess he could borrow Rashee Rice's Lamborghini to help get him to camp quicker. Rice certainly doesn't need it any longer.

2020 was certainly Josh’s best season throwing the ball. Brown only played 9 games that season because of injury. Davis was actually the no. 3. However the offense itself in 2020 was not as balanced as it will be going forward. Moss and Singletary had 1500 yards from scrimmage together. Cook alone last season had 1500. All that said, my post was about the coming year and how much better we became last season once Shakir and Kincaid got involved. Too bad Diggs sulked his way out of town. I believe this coming season will feature a larger and more diverse group of playmakers than 2020; making the offense ultimately more dynamic.