GASabresIUFan

UGA’s last two National Championship teams. 15 players drafted off the first one (a NCAA record). They then would win it again and then lose another 10 to the draft. This past draft another 8 off a 13-1 team would go plus transfers Burton and Mitchell who played for Georgia on the 2021 and or 2022 Championships teams. Of those 35 players, 9 were 1st rd picks and 7 were 2nd rd picks.

Samuel, Coleman and Shakir are set in stone Hollins, because of this special teams skills is probably a lock for a job. That leaves Shorter, MVS and Claypool fighting for one or 2 jobs. If I had to guess right now they keep six and Shorter is sent to the practice squad. In this scenario. Claypool and MVS make the team.

I just about to say the same thing. That said, he is the only center on the roster PFF has a draft on. McGovern, the presumptive center, has a grade as a guard. They graded McGovern at 55.4 last season.

The only thing I'd add here is that there is value in keeping your own players. This is not always an over-riding consideration, but it can tip the scales.

More proof that the NFL stand for Not For Long.

I’m a Cook fan. I had the pleasure of watching him for 4 years at UGA. However, I am fully on board with the Beane/Brady plan to create good RB group to help preserve Josh and Cook. I would not be surprised if this past season would be the pinnacle of Cook’s scrimmage yards for his career. Not because he isn’t capable of giving us even better numbers, but because Brady and the Bills will want to spread the ball around so that no WR, TE or RB is the whole offense (like Diggs was). They want interchangeable parts (or at least high quality backups) and this is good for the team, and probably for the long-term health of the players. I’m going to use UGA as a illustration of the plan. At UGA, Smart utilizes a 3/4 RB committee and a 4/5 WR committee. I think the last UGA receiver over 1000 yard was AJ Greene. It’s one of the reasons guys like Burton and Mitchell left. However, UGA’s depth allows the team to continue to excel despite injuries. The plan seems to be working, as they have only lost 2 games over the last 3 years and won 2 championships, yet have not had a 1000 rusher or receiver (although Bowers got close twice). I think this is the direction Beane is heading. The RB room now features Cook, Davis and Johnson. Cook is the starter, but Davis and Johnson will see plenty of action. This will limit Cook’s numbers, but should extend his career. If I had to guess, Cook will look more and more like Kamara as the years progress and he should earn a 2nd deal, but it won’t be a blockbuster. I’m more curious if Davis gets a 2nd deal. I also think this is something Beane has always wanted. He drafted Singletary and then Moss the next year, but it didn’t work out. Now he has Cook and Davis. I like this tandem better. By the way, which was the more surprising stat; that Cook only had 230 carries in college (and was a 2nd rd pick) or the Davis had 746?

I agree with the first part and not the second. This discussion is way premature. Injuries, cap, production, other positions of need, talent in the draft etc… will all play into the decision 2 years from now. However all the arguments against Cook so far aren’t supported by facts. The only real argument against Cook, assuming he stays at or near this level of production, is that RBs have a short shelf life. That said, RBs that are as good as Cook catching out of the backfield tend to last longer. As to the second part, Davis and Cook are the same age. Davis also took significantly more pounding in college as he was the featured back most of his college career. Cook played in a 3 back platoon at GA, was only the featured back one season. In fact, Davis had 746 carries in college while Cook has had only 556 between college and the pros (230 at UGA & 326 in Buffalo). If anyone has more tread left, it’s Cook.

Cook was 7th in the NFL in yards receiving by a RB last season (while only 20th in targets) His 10.1 yards per catch was second only to Brian Robinson Jr. 10.2 for the 48 RBs with over 20 catches. His 4 receiving TDs was 3rd overall behind McCaffery with 7 and Jerome Ford with 5. He also caught 81.5% of his targets. His 4.7 yards per carry was 6th of the 35 players with 150 or more carries last season. Seems to me that it's up to Josh and Brady to get him the ball more in the passing game. Bottom line: Cook was 4th in the NFL in rushing yards, 7th in the NFL in receiving yards and 3rd in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Enough people. We have an elite RB and if he continues to play at the this level, he will be getting a 2nd contract with the Bills.

That is stupid money even for a great WR.

The guy finished 3rd in yards from scrimmage for all RBs in the NFL in his second year. How is that average?

Depends on the salary cap

You specifically have asked in this thread why Josh's completion % fell under Brady and why our receivers weren't scoring under Brady. I have given you explanations on both and therefore neither is out of context. One, Diggs and Davis sucked after week 6 ands got worse as the season progress thus leading to Diggs having a 58% catch % and Davis in the 40% area under Brady. Second, as I previously pointed out, Brady diversified the offense and the ball went to Cook and Allen near the end zone thereby limiting the TD catches to the receivers. As to Singletary and Moss, who cares. They have never played here under Brady so why are they relevant to this discussion? The Bills drafted Davis to be this team's version of Kenneth Davis, a tough running and good catching, 3rd down back for this offense. Not an offense run by Daboll or Dorsey. How those guys utilized a 3rd down back is meaningless. As to their 3 RB's pedigree, I'll disagree there as well. Davis has the fastest 40 time (4.52 vs 4.66 & 4.65). He outgained Singletary from scrimmage in their final year and Davis earned his numbers in the SEC vs Singletary at Flordia Atlantic. Moss put up the best counting stats, but again he did it in the D challenged Pac 12. Just because some was drafted in the 4th rd vs the 3rd round is not proof that they have a better pedigree. It's more likely proof of a weaker RB group in the draft when Moss & Singletary were drafted or a stronger over all class in Davis' year. These are the 3 key stats. The Bills rushed more, turned the ball over less, and won 7of 9.

Besides the 2 TDs Shakir had in the playoffs? Josh is a dual threat QB. Showing only throwing stats doesn’t give the full picture. You asked why the receivers weren’t scoring TDs under Brady, well Josh had 11 rushing TDs under Brady (7 under Dorsey) and Cook had 4 TDs rushing and receiving under Brady (2 under Dorsey). Maybe the ball simply went elsewhere when we needed a score? By the way Diggs and Davis were already failing prior to Brady taking over. There is a clear line in their drop-off from week 6 to week 7 and beyond. Diggs’ catch % went from 74% in the first 6 weeks to 61% the rest of the season. Davis was 70% in weeks 1-6 and fell to 47% weeks 7-17. (Dorsey vs Brady - Diggs catch % 71.6 under Dorsey and 58.7% under Brady; Davis 60% under Dorsey; 46.2 under Brady. It also be noted that Diggs went from 74% in weeks 1-6 to 66.7% in weeks 7-10 under Dorsey). If you ask me, Josh drop in completion % has more to do with diminishing play from Diggs and Davis than from anything else. The team 5-5 under Dorsey and 7-2 under Brady. All this is moot anyway. Davis, Diggs, Harty, Sherfield and Murray are gone. They are being replaced by Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, MVS (or Claypool) and Ray Davis. These are much different weapons and probably better weapons for Brady to utilize. If I was mapping weapon for weapon: Diggs > Shakir, but closer than you think as Shakir out played him significantly after week 6 on only 1/3 the targets Coleman > Davis - Don’t be surprised when Coleman gives us better number as a rookie then Davis in his 4th year especially completion %. Samuel - is likely replacing Shakir in the slot MVS/Claypool > Harty- either is better than Harty Hollins > Sherfield Davis > Murray - Davis is an upgrade over the aging Murray and will likely take some short yardage carries from Josh as well.

The conclusion is that they wanted to win football games and having Josh run more helped win those games down the stretch. So did rushing Cook more and throwing more to Kincaid and Shakir. I don’t think we can fully extrapolate from what Brady the interim OC did to what Brady the OC is going to do. Brady the OC has a much different group of weapons to work with including 4 new WRs in his top 5, including a 1st pick WR and a FA vet with sick speed, plus a new bruising RB (Davis) with good hands. He also has a full off-season to build his plan vs trying to cobble together a winning formula on the fly with a weapon group designed for a different offense. Heck, we don’t even know who will be in the slot and whether one of the vets (Claypool or MVS) will even make the team. Honestly, what he managed to do last season, going 6-1 as the interim OC, was nothing more than astonishing.

How much of the lower completion % was on Josh? Diggs and Davis only caught 46 of 84 targets (54.8%) over those 7 weeks that Brady was interim OC. The team also went 6-1 by spreading the ball around and better integrating the running game. You also forgot Josh's 8 rushing TDs in the last 7 weeks vs 7 rushing TDs in the first 10 weeks.

We can’t know at this point because the Bills don’t know yet until they see how everyone fits during camp. Brady certainly has ideas but how he eventually utilizes Shakir vs Samuel is going to be one of the great camp debates. In corner one: Samuel. Big FA signing. NFL vet. Experienced in a Brady offense. An inch shorter than Diggs but with track speed. In fact, he’s the fastest of the Bills receivers who is certain to make the team (Hamler may be faster). Has outside experience, but 75% of his snaps have been in the slot. In corner two: Shakir: Shakir is about the same size and speed as Diggs. He played outside in college. He and Kincaid are the only returning Bills with game experience with Josh. He lead the Bills last year in : 1. Yards per catch - 15+ 2. Yards per target 3. Catch percentage - 84%+ 4. Explosive plays per target. Shakir had 17 on only 45 targets. One of the best ratios in the NFL. (FYI: Diggs had 19 on 160 targets). Because of Samuel’s track speed, I can see Brady trying him on deeper patterns than he has run in his career prior to joining the Bills. In Carolina, Brady had two guys who he weren’t really slot options in Moore and Anderson and slotted Samuel there and also utilized his speed out of the backfield. Here, he won’t need Samuel’s speed in the backfield with Davis and Cook already on the team. However, he’ll need Samuel’s speed on fly patterns and deep posts, which can be run on the boundary or in the slot. Ultimately I don’t think it will matter. Where they lineup and what patterns the two guys run will vary significantly from game to game as Brady tries to get matchups he likes.

Actually this is the first time I have really ever really followed the Bills off-season closely. What drew me in this winter was seeing how Beane was going to navigate the salary cap mess he created. I've been hoping for a youth movement for years and I've been advocating for him to invest draft capital in skill players for years and starting with the Cook he finally reached the same decision. It also helped that my Hoosiers basketball team and the Sabres both sucked this winter, freeing up my time to invest in Beane's retooling. I'm completely impressed with what Beane has done this off-season. I know people are upset about Diggs (I'm not) and still hope for more WR help (It's not coming) and more depth in other areas, but look at all he's accomplished. 1) He got us out of cap hell for the foreseeable future. 2) He has reshaped the roster from one of the oldest in the NFL to the middle of the pack in one off-season. 3) He got younger, cheaper (and imho more talented) while maintaining 16 of 22 starters. You could also argue that Rapp was also a starter by year end and that Miller is returning to a starting role. 4) He completely re-tooled the WR and S rooms. Gone are WRs Diggs, Davis, Harty and Sherfield. In with Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, MVS and Claypool. At S, the aging Hyde and Poyer were replaced with Bishop and former KC starter Edwards. 2024 marked the first time Beane has invested premium draft picks on either WR or S. If we are being honest these overhauls were overdue. Hyde and Poyer were significantly diminished players in 2023 and Davis, Harty and Sherfield were terrible last year. Once we looked at the falloff in Digg's play, it also becamse obvious why he was traded as well. McD is a great DB coach and I expect the trio of Edwards, Rapp and Bishop will outperform the 2023 versions of Hyde and Poyer. I'm also excited to see the pass targets spread more evenly over a larger and more talented WR room. 5) Some position groups are better than ever. Our RBs are the best we've had since Beane became GM. The combo of Cook and Davis should be really fun. The LBs, TEs and OL are the deepest that I can remember. I'm excited for the coming season. I like the new look Bills. They are younger, more talented and have a much higher upside. They will have some growing pains, but I'm excited to see Josh play without being tethered to feeding Diggs.

Defeatest? Far from it. My point of view is that this is proper team management. Instead of paying for assets we may not need putting us back in cap hell, I think our team is ready to compete for championship as is because I have faith in Beane and his management team’s ability to draft guys who can contribute immediately. Last season we had 6 1st and 2nd year players (Cook, Benford, Benard, Kincaid, Shakir and Torrance) become starters and quickly develop into core players. We also had other kids, like Williams, step up when needed. Beane is finally investing real draft capital in skill players like Cook, Kincaid, Coleman and Bishop and the first thing you want to do is bring in outside players to keep some of them from playing. How does that make any sense? This team could have as many as 3 starter from this draft this season (Coleman, Bishop and SVP) and 2-3 (or more) immediate contributors in Carter, Davis and Hardy (KR). This team has needed to get younger and cheaper for the last few years and it’s finally happening. If these players develop as I (and Beane and many others hope), we’ll finally go from SB contender to SP participant. The beauty of my plan, is that it’s flexible. One of the kids doesn’t work out yet or we hsve another major injury, Beane will have a war chest so the we can overcome the loss of White or Milano or Jones. Spend all your cap on Metcalf, what do you left when the inevitable injuries occur?

What happened to Cam Lewis (cb/s) and rookie Hardy? Both are making the team. The best thing the Bills can do is nothing with the extra cap. Because of the youth transition on the roster many positions still look like they need help. If the kids step up, like Elam at CB or Bishop at S, then the issue goes away. If they don’t or significant injuries occur, Beane will have a war chest to fix the problem like he did with Douglas last year. This is one of those times to be patient.

You do realize that Fields had a higher completion % and a higher passer rating in college then Williams did?

at least he won't be Ryan Leaf 2.0

Justin Fields 2.0.

Diggs gotta Diggs

Good article in the Athletic detailing how WRs and their contracts have gotten out of hand and how teams like the Bills, KC and GB are moving on from high priced WRs. Essentially all the WR are so talented that they are becoming fungible. This is "moneyball" at it's finest. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5510422/2024/05/22/justin-jefferson-contract-nfl-wide-receivers/

Nice article about Claypool. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40192905/chase-claypool-mission-right-now I’ve said since he was signed that he is my favorite for the WR4. Youth, size and speed and already impressing the coaches. If he can come in and play to his potential, I think he’ll make Coleman’s transition easier and give the Bills the best 1-5 WRs they have had since drafting Josh.