GASabresIUFan

If Shakir equals Diggs’ production with 70 less targets, that a huge win for the Bills. Comparing Kincaid to Davis is a mistake. Completely different players playing different positions. I also project Kincaid to get at 33% more to touches than last year. The truth is we don’t need the receivers and RBs to produce more as a group than what they produced last year. Our top 5 pass catchers last year caught passes for 3658 yards. I don’t see why our top 5 pass catchers can’t exceed that number. If Shakir catches 80 balls and keeps close to last year’s 15.7 yards per catch, that 1200 yards. Kincaid should see 33 to 40% more balls which should get him to 1000 yards. Cook is good for at least the 450 he had last year. Samuel averaged over 625 yards the last 2 season with Sam Howell throwing him the ball. He should see 90+ targets in the new offense. He caught about 70% of his targets in Washington’s offense. Last time Samuel played for Brady he caught 80% of his targets and he produced 1000 yards for offense. If he can get to 750 yards that would be a solid result as the Bills 3rd receiving options. Davis had 600 yards as a rookie. Coleman is a better player, and his number should be at least that good. All told that’s 4000 yards from our top 5 options with better depth options than last year. A finally healthy Knox should be better than last year and more involved in the offense. Hollins and Davis are significant upgrades Harty and Murray. Those 3 gave us 450 yards. Knox, Hollins and Davis have the talent to give us 800 yards+.

Who are Josh’s top 3 returning receivers? They are Kincaid, Cook and Shakir. Each caught 80%+ of their targets last season. Who do you think are going to be his top targets this year? Cook will lead in targets out of backfield and Shakir and Kincaid will be the top 2 targets overall. Shakir is basically a clone of Diggs. He has the same height, weight, but Shakir is a little faster. Shakir had 17 chunk plays on only 45 targets. He average 15.7 yards a catch for 611 yards. What is going to do with 90 targets as both an inside and outside threat? Kincaid had 90 targets last season and gained 673 yards as a rookie. Mahomes targets Kelce 120-150 times a season. What can Kincaid do with 120 targets? 1000 yards+? Don’t forget that we have to redistribute 300+ targets from last season (Diggs-160, Davis-81, Murray, Hardy & Sherfield-65). Adding 45 to Shakir and 30 to Kincaid, leaves plenty of opportunity for Samuel, Coleman, Knox, Davis etc…. I’m not worried about the offense in the slightest.

Two to watch this coming year are Love and Stroud.

Wow, you guys should read the Sabres' board.

So basically all the best QBs in the NFL are in the AFC.

Nice of Andreessen to step up and give us even more depth at LB.

The article on our injuries in the Athletic gave me some hope on Samuels. Marino is his podcast made a good point about MVS. He compared him to Poona Ford as a guy who made the team, but because of lack of special teams contribution didn’t dress often. My thought on MVS is why keep him as a WR5 if he isn’t going to dress? I think I’d rather give MVS an injury settlement, give Shavers or Hamler a shot, or see if someone they like better comes loose on cutdown day.

Mike, good OP. With Josh on the field everything is different. Defenses essentially are playing one defender down as they have to spy on Josh. The O Line was good against Pit and when Mitch was sacked, Josh would have time to find someone open. He checked down to Cook on one of the plays. I excited by what Coleman can do. Sadly because of injuries we the fans aren’t getting a clear picture of what is happening with the offense in general and Coleman in particular this preseason.

Hard to review safeties when Pittsburgh didn't complete any passes. I couldn’t tell who received worse QB play; Buffalo with Trubisky or either Pitt QB.

There is another way to weather this storm. Shakir moves to the boundary, Kincaid to the slot, Coleman the other boundary and Knox/Morris/Davidson man the TE position. You can also see more Davis and Cook on the field at the same time.

He still plays the outside, but considering Samuel is injured, is having another slot guy a problem?

Yes there is. I do wonder if they'd trade us Bo Melton. He isn't a core player for them and he really stepped up and played well when called upon late last season. However with Reed, Doubs, Watson and Wicks, he is 5th in the pecking order.

What about Michael Thomas?

Eric Wood says it's going fine. I'll take his word for it.

I've been defending Beane WR strategy this off-season, but that does look awful. I guess Beane will be looking at other team's cuts. I guess it's Hamler time or Shaver surprise. The only silver lining is that they'll be working with Josh and maybe we'll get to see them in a better light without Trubisky throwing to them. Getting Bishop and Edwards back practicing at safety is good news.

Did you look at last year’s PS before you wrote this? Last year’s PS contained some vets like Ty Johnson and Isabella, but most were young guys they were looking to develop like Ingram and Shavers but not necessarily Bills draftees. It doesn’t change the NFL roster categories. The draftees they keep on the roster are still expected to contribute at least on special teams unless they are OL.

I’ve been a Bills fan all my life, but this is the first year I’ve been really following the roster creation. I was fascinated by how Beane was going to extricate the Bills from cap hell and then build a quality team with 60 mill in dead cap. I’ve been wondering if we should sub-divide our 53 man roster to have a special category for ST primary players like Gilliam, Cam Lewis, Neal, Matekevich, Morris last season. These guys played 15% or less on offense/defense while playing 70% or more of the ST snaps. I’ve come to the conclusion that there are 5 types of players on a roster 1) Starters 2) Rotational players - who rotate in especially at WR, TE, DT and DE. 3) Backups who don’t play unless needed - usually OL 4) Backups who play on special teams - often LBs, S, CBs, WRs 5) Special teams specialists - LS, Punter, PK, KR, and the aforementioned guys like Gilliam etc… Given the youth on this roster, I think we’ll see more rotational players than usual. For example, I can see Williams and Deion Jones rotating at LB depending on whether it’s a running play and passing down.

Lol, Cook was 10th in rushing attempts and 19th in pass targets. Not exactly over-usage as your comment implies. The reason he was high on the RBs list was because he had the 4th best average per rush of the 1000 yard rushers and his 10.1 yards per catch was the best, by a yard or more, of the top 25 targeted running backs. The reason he was so high on the RBs list because he was extremely effective. FYI: He was also 3rd in NFL RBs in success% on rushing attempts at 55.7% and he was the top RB in Success % at 59.3%. Success% is basically a stat to show how effective a player is, aka is he moving the sticks. The player (RB/WR/TE) needs to get 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd or 4th down for the play to considered a success. By comparison McCaffrey’s success % on rushing attempts was 54% and on pass catches was 55.4%.

I also like Davidson over MVS. Conventional wisdom says no, but if you think of Kincaid more as a WR than TE, it’s easier to envision. Something like this. TE (3) Knox, Morris, Davidson TE/WR Hybrid - Kincaid WR (4) Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollins The biggest issue is speed. MVS brings deep speed. Without MVS, only Samuel remains with that kind of speed. My guess is Beane goes with a veteran deep threat (MVS) over a 4th TE, especially if he thinks he can get Davidson to the PS.

Here is the best news. There is no way on G-d’s green earth that our very competent GM is going to trade his Pro Bowl RB on a rookie deal two weeks before the season for a draft pick. I know facts don’t matter here, but….. Cook was 3rd in yards from scrimmage last year. He was 8th in total yards receiving by RB’s but his 10.1 yards per catch was the best of the top receivers. He caught over 80% of his targets and this was on par with guys like B. Hall, McCaffery, Etienne, and better than others like Bijon Robinson. His 4 receiving TDs was 3rd to McCaffery and Ford. Cook was 4th in rushing yards and his 4.7 yards per carry was 4th highest among 1000 yard rushers.

You have Jonathan out, list 5 DE’s, but slot for 6. Who is the 6th?

Boy, they dislike Mitch almost as much as the we do.

By the way I love what one of the commentators said about Andreessen. He said he is joining the Bills' UB UDFA development program with graduate Lewis, soon to graduate Ingram and now Andreessen.

So we should trade Kincaid and Shakir this off-season? What about Benford and Benard? Do they need to go as well? Considering it's been 20 years since we drafted a RB in the 2nd round with Cook's kind of production, I would say that's a high replacement cost.