Domitian

Names of some guys who Palmer has coached 1 on 1 in addition to Allen: Mahomes Goff Burrows Darnold Watson

Yup. I'm not QB whisperer, just a fan, but personally I would put his odds of the best case scenario at less than 5%, Qb purgatory at around 25%, and captain checkdown that flames out in another year or two at 70%

Tua is basically Drew Brees or bust. He does not possess any specific physical skills or strengths that make him in any way dynamic. He will live and die by his ability to read and exploit defenses with highly accurate passing. That's a really risky player to bet the farm on because if he doesn't pass for 70% and learn to surgically pick apart a D, he's damn near worthless. His arm is a noddle, he's not a dynamic run threat...again...Brees or bust.

The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model.

These are extremely different situations that really aren't comparable...yet. Titans had COVID spreading through their lockerroom hitting new players every day. They had to push games to stop the spread within the team AND to others. Browns positive tests thus far (until today) have all ben isolated where the players/coaches contracted it from outside and the virus was not spreading from player to player. Extremely different scenario. Remains to be seen about today's positive tests though. The league hasn't played favorites. Intra-team outbreaks are treated differently than isolated contraction from outside and have been all year.

I'm in the same boat. I wanted Indy or Miami. Indy is a fine team, but Rivers is...well...Rivers and on defense I'm not sure there is a secondary that can actually stop Diggs-Beasley-Brown-Davis, and if there is, it certainly isn't the Colts secondary. Their pass defense is the closest thing they have to a hole or really exploitable weakness, which is great for the Bills. Buckney plugging up the middle and their great performance against the run isn't worth much against a Bills team that doesn't run very much.

He's very good at what he does and better than 90% of the pundits out there because he does his damn homework. He uses the analytics, and he watches the film, and combines it with his own experiences. If he doesn't know something, he won't have a take on it. That being said, he usually knows because again, he does his damn homework.

Look at the people that have been more realistic about Allen's skill and development and those that have been ZOMG HE'S TRASH!. The dividing line isn't whether they use analytics or not, it's whether they're lazy hacks or not. Most of the talking heads on TV especially have no damn clue what they're talking about. They look at a few numbers, watch youtube highlights, and then come up with a hot take or parrot the conventional wisdom.

Not just was there no evidence the prior positives weren't from team spread, there was objective evidence that it was not. They tested positive for three different strains of the virus. Team spread within the facility would be a uniform strain leaping from person to person. I'm sure the league will do what they did last time and have the test samples genome sequenced to get an idea of what they're dealing with and go from there.

Every AFC playoff team deserves to be there (unlike the NFC), and anyone can beat anyone. However I really wouldn't like this matchup as a Colts fan. Your D is good...but more specifically your run D, which is elite. The Colts secondary and cover corners really aren't built to be able to cover guys like Diggs, Beasley, and Brown man to man, which they'll need to so at least sometimes to allow pressure on Allen. That elite run D isn't going to be of much use against a team like the Bills who aren't much of a running team. The Colts match up, IMO much better with a team like the Titans or Ravens, where that front 4 can really shine and shut down the run, while the secondary won't be asked to cover such high end talent. The Colts are a solid team across the board, but if there is a weakness, I think it's the pass defense, and you drew the 3rd most prolific passing attack in the league. That being said, anything can happen!

I, nor any of us here can possibly be responsible for the actions of others in a stadium of 70,000 but I really don't think any Bills fan should engage in debates about past poor fan behavior, violent or otherwise beyond agreeing that things like that shouldn't happen. I have no interested in defending others bad behavior out of some tribal loyalty. If some dude from Syracuse wants to be a Dolphins fan and hate the Bills because someone poured a beer on his friend, he can go right ahead. I'll agree that's not cool but I'm not going to take responsibility for an entire fan base of millions.

Everyone need to keep in mind that most sports pundits idea of research is looking at box scores and sorting league rankings on ESPN stats to determine who and what is good and who and what isn't. That's how you have the laziest among the talking heads saying that the Colts have a great defense that will cause problems for Allen. They didn't bother looking that A. their D has been on the decline in the second half of the year. B. Their D is ranked #8 because their Running D is amazing. But the Bills aren't a running team. and C. Their Pass defense is in the bottom half of the league and their cover corners are not very good and will not be able to keep up with Diggs/Beasley/Brown playing Man. These are the same jokers that just look at Allen's comp % and watched the end of the Texans game and go with, "he was trash". Most pundits are NOT Chris Simms who actually put in the work to know what they're talking about.

They didn't for Lamar earlier this year.

You could counter that with the Colts being bottom 10 in stopping the pass and the Bills being #2 in the league in passing offense.

You may very well be right. However I'm a tech sales person, not an epidemiologist. I'll let the experts do their contact tracing and determine what's going on with the Browns.