harryS

I really don't think there will be such fluctuations for the marquee game of the week (especially not the 3.5), unless either team has an awful injury report. I can see it staying -2.5 (juiced to Buf) or 3 (juiced to MIa) all week like it currently is now. IMO 2.5 is a good number. Hard to give that Miami offense the full 3 unless it's juiced and hard not to have Buffalo as a team rated at least even with MIami but more likely slightly ahead given the small sample of this season so far. (Miami might turn out to be the better team, but we don't know that yet based on 3 games). Thus 2.5 would be my number; Bills home field is probably worth 2 and then a half point to give us credit for being slightly better. BTW, for those thinking this will get down to even, Circa is the sharpest book around and they currently have it at 3. Circa and Pinnacle tend to be leading indicators for the market. Meaning the line is currently more likely to go to 3 than to go down. And again, none of this matters as to the outcome of the game. Maybe Miami wins by 40. Maybe the Bills do. It's strictly about reading the market like nerds.

Unless we have a horrible injury report, I'd be shocked if that were the case. The lowest this line can go is Bills -2.5 heavily juiced. It's unheard of for a well-known (several seasons with same HC and QB), highly-regarded team like the Bills to go from -3 to even without injury being involved. All of this is irrelevant to who will win or lose. Just saying, the line movement you predict won't happen without injuries. (I'm a degenerate gambler and should know ;-) Man, I wish this game at Buffalo were in Nov/Dec.

what percentage of zone has Howell seen the first two week? a QB can look good against one type of D and horrible against the other are the zone vs man stats freely available anywhere? thanks.

McDermott should've been fired immediately after 13 seconds. I said right after the game that McD was destined to be fired by the Bills; the only question was whether the Pegulas would waste 5-8 years before firing him, or whether they would move on right away and hopefully find an innovative, ballsy, non-choking coach. They chose to waste years. Sigh.

Does it really matter if McD should actually be 15th or whatever instead of 22nd? It's stupid to be so precise in these coach rankings anyway, and it's especially stupid for Bills fans to get all up in arms about the rankings one way or another. No, what matters is that McD will be fired within a few seasons after having wasted much of Josh Allen's prime.

can we block?

too simple, he was both BPA and fulfills a need best of both worlds

That would be an awesome 15 years, quite frankly. I'd be quite happy to root for that. We're the Buffalo Bills - why would we scoff at a Favre-like 15 year run that includes a Super Bowl win? We'd have killed for that during the 20-year drought. But really, this season was only partially about Josh's shortcomings. We have a bad OL, bad WR depth, a D that can't rush the passer / defend the pass, a bad OC, a dumb head coach, and a GM that wastes treasure on the D without improving it. I'm not saying Josh needs all those positions to be great, but he can't have them all failing him at the same time. The fact that he's a top-3 QB (albeit #3) is how we managed to go 13-3

just a difference in philosophy. to me, it hurts worse when you play great, have a team that could legitimately win it all, and then blow it with stupidity at the end. but when you just have all the weaknesses we ended up having this year, it only hurts if you were fooling yourself otherwise.

the move was to outbid the Rams for Von Miller last year. but yes, we need to improve at WR, OL, and stop investing so much in the D for minimal gains

you were deluding yourself then. the bills weaknesses were on display for most of the season. poor o-line, lack of quality receiving depth, and can't defend the pass after Von went down. last year hurt. this loss was basically anticipated. at the very least, we're not a serious playoff contender with all of those weaknesses mentioned.

i expected the NFL to give us an L, so i'm pretty happy with this outcome. we probably got better than we deserved, but even you don't agree with that statement, i don't see how you can B word too much

i wouldn't needlessly stress over this. it's already baked in the cake that he's not going to have a Brady-esque long career. as long as Josh delivers one Super Bowl title over the next decade or so, we're good. we can help him out by investing assets in the OL and WR

I tend to agree. To reiterate, the line closed at 10.5 at the Jets. Flipping homefield, it should take the line to 14. Instead the line is 9, so the oddsmakers have already adjusted 5 points. They really can't make this much shorter. I'm taking 9, and I would love to tease an 8 or 8.5 down as well if they pop on the screen.

The Bengals have a good shot at the 1 seed if they win out as well. It's not just a two-team race As for the spread being high, considering that it was 10.5 at the Jets and now the game is in Buffalo, the oddsmakers have already made a big adjustment. I certainly wouldn't run to bet the Jets at 9.5 in Buffalo.

this and many other threads. i never want to hear that this team is one of the best NFL teams of all time again, lol. we *will* regroup and play better, though. but let's keep it on an even keel when that happens.

once Josh is announced out, it will cross 3 to 2.5 (at least), so 3.5 is still worth an investment just to try to middle this thing. of course, the best middle opportunity was to have gotten it at 7.5 at the beginning of the week.

why are people getting on the poster who said the Bills are a .500 team without Josh. in recent years, we have seen teams that are strong everywhere except QB struggle to .500-ish seasons. some recent broncos and saints teams come to mind. that's just the reality of today's nfl. you need a QB

this game is off the board at most books. 6.5 is a stale line, but props to those who were able to jump on +7.5, +7, and +6.5 before the books pulled it.

2020 wasn't the year, as others have mentioned. That was the "taking our lumps in the playoffs" year against the conference bully. KC was better and more prepared and experienced. 2021 was the year. We had taken our lumps already the previous year, played a great game against the bully and was about to know them out. Then our coaches screwed up 13 seconds.

I don't know if the oddsmakers' Super Bowl favorite (which we still are) will be falling out of the spotlight anytime soon, but it's pathetic for Bills fans to yearn for fawning national media coverage anyway. Or to slurp up any morsel that is given to them. Remember when SNL made a skit about Jets Fans, not about the Bills who were only incidental to the skit, and everyone was so happy and praised the obnoxious SNL skit? "We've made the big time!" - lol

The board is more readable now that it's been injected by some realism. A couple weeks ago, anyone was a bad fan basically if we didn't think this team was a GOAT contender. We're a very good team with a couple of obvious weaknesses like O-line that disqualify us from GOAT contention. but we can still be the best team in the NFL if the defense gets/stays healthy. This was true a couple weeks ago. It is true now.

How much money do you spend on OnlyFans a month? C'mon, let us know. Is it over $100? Don't tell me it's over $200, right?

That's often true but for the books like Circa and Fanduel that hire a lot of analytics talent, they will often have opinions and back them. Afterall, it's fairly easy to collect customer data (especially for the online books), and if you show that almost all your sharps are backing one side and the public is on the other side ("Pros vs Joes" scenario), why not bet with the sharps?

This is a terrible, nonsensical trade. Shanahan's system is known for churning out good RBs and rushing production, so why trade all those assets for an injured RB? This would be like the president of Thailand importing hookers or something like that.