harryS

plus, nothing is official yet. okay i agree chubb is probably out but every other player mentioned could play. there's no reason to believe at this point that miami will be any more banged up than the average nfl team at this stage of the season. or that they'll be more banged up than the bills.

Expect a tough game. This would be the Bills' best win of the season (which is different from most dominant / impressive). We've only beaten one good team on the road this season, KC, and the Chiefs are .500 at home this season (beating the Bengals today got them to .500). Miami, on the other hand, is 7-1 at home this season. Add in the stakes -- it could be 2 seed or out of the playoffs -- and that we're playing to win the division against a hated division rival, this would be our best win. We've come a long way but this is everything here.

First of all, every single playoff team will have a bad performance on the resume akin to this win. Secondly, the pros who do this for a living (oddsmakers and pro bettors) have consistently rated the Bills as a top 8 team in the league, i.e. playoff worthy.

okay, just wanted to quickly point out something (1) apparently peacock has a wild card game this year. i didn't even realize that until reading this thread. (2) lots of people are recommending to buy peacock for the Bills game and then cancel right afterwards. if you buy peacock today, your month subscription would cover the wild-card game (which very well may involve the Bills). wild card weekend is Jan 13-15. i'd illegally stream both, but if you're going to buy peacock, then NO, don't cancel it right after Saturday.

not sure i agree that complaining about bad only to receive worse makes it our fault. in a just world, it would've led to better. anyway, i agree with everyone saying to use an illegal stream so the streak doesn't break. good post. re: this final point, I would say it's okay to make a one-time exception in response to the extreme boning in the butt described by OP. plus, when you stream illegally, it's not like they cut out the commercials.

Why? Since the switch to Brady, we lost to the Eagles on the road and very easily could've lost to the Chiefs on the road. We blew out the Cowboys and Jets at home. I think getting a home game would be great. Also, historically, is there any easy way to look up all Super Bowl champions that had to play 3 conference playoff games? If we compare: (1) Those that had to play all 3 conference games on the road to (2) Those that started their playoff run at home #2 will be multiple times more numerous than #1. Has there ever even been a Super Bowl champ that won three conference road games? I think maybe one of the Eli Manning teams did it?

Unless it brings you some level of enjoyment, I wouldn't live and die on the games from other playoff contenders. Keep it simple. The Bills win out, or they don't deserve to make the playoffs. I know it's a difficult task to win out, but it was the Bills who put themselves in that position by blowing so many games they should've won this season. Now it's time to do something special to dig ourselves out of the hole, or well, it's onto the draft and free agency. A lot of Bills games are already torture to watch. I don't see the point in adding to the torture by living and dying on a Bengals-Vikings game on a Saturday.

Making the playoffs isn't the goal anyway, and hopefully people remember that! We want to win a Super Bowl. Making the playoffs only to choke away a win @Ravens or @Chiefs is a failure. The sneaky bastard McDermott has moved the goalposts. Very few expect us to make the playoffs anymore, so now making the playoffs with Josh Allen is a success lol and will save his job.

I can believe they'll get in. Only for the season to end with the Bills choking away a win @Ravens or @Chiefs in the playoffs. McDermott gonna McDermott.

While it's mathematically possible to lose to both the Eagles and Chiefs and still make the playoffs, in reality we need to cash in on the advantageous schedule situation we're in to go at least 1-1 and hopefully 2-0. (Against KC, the advantage is obviously 2 weeks of prep/rest to their 1 week). We're not going to win out if we blow these two opportunities here. Also, from a "deserve it" standpoint, we need to man up and get a good road win. The Browns won at the Ravens. The Texans won at the Bengals (with Burrow). Our only road win is Washington so far.

Of course not. You're basically saying he's never going to have a season in the future where we say, "This is the best he's ever played." Josh has never even played under a great offensive mind yet. Hopefully Brady proves to be one.

As others have explained, they are on a short week after playing on MNF in an emotional and hard-fought Super Bowl revenge game while the Bills coasted to a blowout win. Eagles have the 49ers on deck next week while the Bills have a bye, so we will focus solely on Philly and let it all hang loose this week. Savvy bettors have recognized this as a great "spot"/situation for the Bills and it's the sole reason the point spread is 3 instead of 3.5 or 4.

That was the only time Belichick was coaching for real, as he was auditioning for Pegula. The rest of the time, he's been trying to get Kraft to fire him, i.e. release him from his contract with pay. (As an aside, getting fired in pro sports is awesome). It's obvious that Belichick is eyeing Josh as his next Brady, like Palpatine lusting after a young undisciplined Annakin. Together, they could build an empire and deliver Buffalo multiple Super Bowl trophies. Unfortunately, not sure Pegula is paying attention or if Kraft is falling for it.

Absolutely right. This one is more speculative, but why not, let's speculate. Among public sharps (those that share their picks on podcasts, twitter, etc, after they have already bet), there has been more of a sharp preference for Cincy although it is by no means unanimous as some sharps disagree and back Buffalo. It's not like the over, which is heavily backed by the sharps. I do think the public sharps are representative of the overall sharp pool, so why hasn't this line moved when both the public and the sharps favor the Bengals. Ah, here's the rub. There's a subset of the sharp pool called "syndicates." These are rich men, many with a background in math and finance -- some come from Wall Street -- and they pool their money together kind of like a hedge fund and have decided they want to conquer NFL betting using mathematical models. These guys wait to bet later in the week when the sportsbooks have fully removed the limits, so the syndicate can drop $100,000 on the Bills if they want to. Why would the syndicates prefer Buffalo? Remember, these guys are math nerds. Buffalo's season-long stats are way better than Cincy's. They probably have Buffalo favored by 1 in this game or something.

Even the minor movement has been eliminated as we're back to mostly 2s and 1.5s across the board. As always, lines don't move big the way many fans think they do.

Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board. There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted. At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5. Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news. Given that we are 0-4 against the spread since the injuries, I'd say that we are again overvalued due to the injuries. You should just bet the Bengals moneyline (Bengals to win outright, no spread) then. It's not usually a recommended bet when you can get -2.5 because you're eating much more juice but given your fears, that's the way to go. He's talking about betting on Cincy, not Buffalo. He doesn't want to bet $500 on Cincy spread and then have the Bills lose by 1 or 2. That's a double whammy.

You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s). 2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that. As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it. I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line. However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game. In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs). The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side). To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news. Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.

historically teams that play overtime on Sunday (like Washington did) and then have to play Thursday perform horribly

It's about the betting limits. The books that cater to sharps will allow them to put down 10K on an NFL side. At square books, they can get limited to $500 a bet and if they win too much, the limits might even go down more. So, yes, most sharps will have a Bovada account so they can grab a good number for $500 but the majority of their action will be elsewhere.

Nah, won't happen. Just like the Dolphins getting bet to pick'em against the Bills didn't happen. Generally speaking there aren't these wild swings in the line like many think. You have to give Jax credit for home field in this one, imo. They're already in England, they already played a game there this week (won comfortably), and they've been there more than any other NFL team the past few years. The fact that we have to travel across the Atlantic after an emotional blowout win against our hated division rivals, and Jax is just sitting there chilling, waiting for us.... imo, I give Jax the full 1.5 points for home field. And considering CRIS/Bookmaker and BetOnline are at 5.5 and Circa is at 5, then this game is considered Bills -7/-6.5 on a neutral field in America. That's a very healthy line already and shouldn't go up much more more, if any. It might even come down if some syndicate decides they're going to weigh HFA even higher than I did.

White really hasn't been the same since his previous season-ending injury. We're not losing Pro Bowler White; we're losing the opportunity for White, in his second season back from that injury, to eventually turn into Pro Bowler White again later on in the season. But that was no guarantee. Sucks for him and us though. Wish we could've played seen how it would've played out. Hopefully some of the young corners make a leap.

I can vouch for there being a preference for the Bills among sharps. That's because the sharpest books (i.e. the books whose clientele are more sharp-heavy) are at 3 or juicier 2.5s than the rest of the books. Sharp books include, among others, Circa, Pinnacle, and CRIS/Bookmaker. It's not a huge preference but the preference is obviously there. Oh, btw, there were folks on here predicting that we would get a chance to bet the Bills at pick'em / even because of public money. Never materialized, did it? Because that's just not how things work. Of course all of this is meaningless. Maybe Miami wins by 30. Maybe Buffalo does. The line's the line but the players still have to suit up and get it done.

a much lesser version of this dolphins team scored 21, 29, and 31 against the Bills last season. (the playoff game output was aided by Bills turnovers to be fair).

The goal isn't to beat Washington. Plus, criticism is sometimes best received after victory. A win doesn't mean you're perfect.

This isn't surprising. Until Tua proves it over a full season, Josh is considered the better QB. As of right now, 32 out of 32 GMs would pick Josh over Tua. So we have the better QB playing at home complemented by a defense that's been playing well. It would be insane for Buffalo not to be favorites. A decent amount of sportsbooks have already flipped this back to Buf -3 flat. (As mentioned before, Circa being at 3 was a leading indicator). So much for this line going to pick'em.