harryS

Sharp involvement with the Pats is small but present, imo. The Big 3 market leaders of Pinnacle, Bookmaker/CRIS, and Circa all started at 4.5 and are at 4 now. (This, despite the public backing the Bills, as discussed). But the team the sharps are really hammering are the Raiders so far, then the Eagles.

The Raiders, Eagles, and Patriots. They will go 2-1, losing to the Bills.

Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement. In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right. Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at? For example, here's what I'm seeing: You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles. Why would that be? Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong: You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth! Would it be so surprising to believe that most of the big-money bettors are whales dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets? The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps. They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move. The sharps are on the dogs, as they tend to be.

which one? notice that I'm specific in my posts, e.g. Draft King has it as 3.5 right now. The line was widely 4.5 yesterday and has moved down to 4. The line HAS moved, opposite of the direction you predicted. :-) Sometimes explanation sounds like condescension, and like I said, maybe we should just stick to talking football. But if you or others are going to talk point spread, at least give good information. For example, why would you think the 53% vs 58% you mentioned would move the line? That difference isn't very large, but most importantly, you seem to assume that it has to be sharp action accounting for the difference. All it takes is one rich whale (for example, someone like Floyd Weather) to place a big bet and skew those numbers, especially since the difference is so small, and especially since the limits are low early in the week. Big bettors do NOT have to be sharp. Very often they are whales, especially in high-profile games like NFL playoff games.

Oh look, the point spread has actually moved DOWN to 4 across the board now, including a 3.5 at sharp shop Heritage. So, looks like all the Bills fans in this thread were wrong about what direction the line would move. I mean, who cares? We should just stick to talking about football, but IF people are going to chime in about point spreads and market movement, please know what you're talking about when you do. Thanks! And to be clear, I think our Bills win comfortably and I will have a bet on Bills -3.5, but that is irrelevant to how the point spread will move in this game.

where? i'm seeing 4.5 across the board. at the very least, all the major most popular books are at 4.5

he's going to be immediately picked up by another team as head coach

numbers do lie, and this is why you trust the eye test over nerdy stats. i like this team, it's very good, but it's not the best bills team ever.

like I said, you don't have a good feel for this. the first time the Pats played at Buffalo, the closing line was 3 and you could get 2.5 at high-handle places like Cris and Circa. that means the line has already been adjusted off the very key number of 3 and through the key number of 4. there's no way this thing is moving higher. to be clear, I think the Bills will win and cover, but my own personal opinion has nothing to do with how the market will move.

sorry for the nitpick but I don't believe those paths are even possible... the NFL still reseeds after every round, right? so Titans would play the Steelers. that's why getting the #1 seed is so powerful. you get a bye week AND your first opponent will likely be a wild-card team that upset a division winner in the first round. yeah, they could lose 24-6 instead of 40-6. yawn. that's just very unlikely. i don't think you have a good handle on point spreads

we are probably better than a typical 4 seed because (a) we have a QB that can get hot and carry a team deep into the playoffs and (b) our point differential has been good, but beyond that, there are definitely going to be 3-4 other teams I'm more confident in going deeper than the Bills. still, that's a way better situation than most.

Right. Even if Josh is better on the road than at home, if his teammates are better at home than on the road, and the opposing team is better at home than on the road (both typically true), then it's still better to be at home.

the bills would still have to win three more games to win the super bowl. my only fear would be that belichick comes up with a great gameplan that can be mimicked by other opponents even if the bills beat new england. other than that possibility, i wouldn't be that concerned.

ha, get your own nfl db (might have to purchase) and learn sql that's exactly right. the team that played the Bucs tough on Sunday isn't the team that will show up in Buffalo. bad teams that lose a heartbreaker at home are very unlikely to show up on the road the next week, especially in the last game of the season. the jets are already thinking about the beaches in Costa Rica or wherever. but obviously the bills can't think this way. we should respect the opponent and come prepared and amped up to win the division. i don't expect that will be a problem.

good line. bad teams that lose heartbreakers at home then go on the road the next game historically get wrecked.

a bunch of us, i think. no hindsight = 20/20 here. even at the time of the loss, a lot of us feared this would cost us valuable seeding down the line. but oh well, let's keep rolling into the playoffs and see what happens

I'd rather have the #1 seed and a bye week in the playoffs but I hear you regardless. Time to win 4 tough games in the playoffs.

There has been gambling on football for decades and decades, way before the NFL partnered with some casinos. If there are shenanigans going on, it's been going on for a long time. And official relationship doesn't change anything.

Right, the MVP is heavily tied to team success, right or wrong. (This is true in all the major sports). Rodgers is the heavy, heavy favorite. But who cares? What matters is that Josh has lifted his game at the right time and was brilliant against New England. This gives the Bills a shot in the playoffs.

I disagree. Belichick has the same game plan with a rookie Brady or a rookie Josh Allen. Why pass when you don't have to? Unfortunately part of the "you don't have to" calculation was that Belichick knew the 4th year QB on the opposing sideline wouldn't hurt him (not to mention the opposing OL, OC, etc). That's exactly right. No one is saying Josh hasn't been good. On a scale of 1 to 10, we need him to be a 10 and he's getting paid like a 10, but he's given us a 7 this season.

Jones is easily the best rookie QB and will continue to develop and improve under Belichick. I agree that Allen is better as of today but it might not be the case in two or three years. Hopefully last season was not Josh's peak career season, never again to be repeated.

the first part isn't even true. the chiefs would whip us in the playoffs (again) if we played.

get a time machine to bring last season's Josh Allen into the present. at a minimum, we win the Titans game and Jags game, probably the Steelers game, and would be way more competitive against the Colts. I mean, the Colts were the more physical team in the playoff matchup last season, too, but Josh kept matching them point for point and pulled out a win. That Josh Allen is gone.

i mean, that makes sense to me. now that the Chiefs are playing well, do you think the Bills would beat them?

it's a salary cap league. when your QB gets paid as much as Allen, you're very unlikely to have an o-line like the Colts.