PoundingDog

Dawkins is 30 now. Current contract runs out after 2027 plus 2 additional void years. Last year of the contract has a dead cap, if cut, is $4.4 million. Brown's contract runs out in 2028 when he's 30. Normally I'd say Grable takes over Dawkins in 2027, but if he's really improving going forward and ready to take over, it might be a good, but not so good situation because I don't think they will just trade Dawkins to whoever offers the highest return. Not a Beane and McDermott thing to do to a guy like Dion.

Two different players. Knox was primarily a blocker that developed in Buffalo to be a capable receiver. Remember he talked about the ping pong ball exercises and the concept of not getting open too soon in a play when he's not the primary target. Clearly he had to learn the art of passing game in NFL, and he's a better athlete than Kincaid overall. Because of his blocking skills, he's more likely to surprise defenses, drawing more favorably matchups, and having big plays downfield. Kincaid is a glorified big receiver coming into NFL with natural smooth route running and great hands ability. He has to learn to be an effective blocker, not quite there yet. What I find disappointing is against zone, he's not that instinctive that I thought he is. Also he's older. I do have concerns about his ceiling now (two years into his career).

Watch for Pickens this off-season. Prior to this year, there is a good chance Steelers may trade him. Now it's the opposite problem - what he thinks that he deserves to have an extension being paid as a top WR now and the Steelers might want to see another high production, problem free season.

I know they won't. League wide almost no team will pick a 1T DT without some pass rush ability. Sweat of TEN somehow showed pass rushing ability so far but there is still doubt when he ages a bit, if he can still do that. But 2 round and 3 you can probably find high quality 1T DT.

It is not a problem until it is a problem. But let's face it, it is THE place where an offensive guru like Reid will look to explore. And I'll add it is NOT just defending the run, it is also defending passing games derived from the run concept like the Bills were able to do this year with great success. It's OK to say I don't mind you run on us. It's another you give up 10+ yard run on regular basis. And this year, people noticed we have done that -- 10+ yards and the passes of 10+ yard off the run concept given up. To the opposing offense, it is the same thing like we have been saying of our offense prior to this year, when you can't run with some success, everything looks hard, even for great QBs like Mahomes and Allen; they have to make exceptional plays one after another. One game, sure. Two games in a row, OK (maybe). Three games in a row, less likely, especially in playoffs with increasingly stronger opponent. I don't believe McDermott is going to change his schemes. Finding a stud on D line or a MLB (above Bernard level) is critical and so far, we have not done that. They invested heavily on DE but really not much in DT. Oliver and Carter are the only draft picks in Beane and McDermott era and I found that puzzling. Maybe the requirement for DT in this defense is so high that they don't believe any of the later round picks in the past few years could develop into that guy in their eyes so they opted to sign known veterans. I hope the Carter pick starts the change of that philosophy.

A number of players stepped up. Josh Allen - this is shaping up to be his career year even though the yardage number may not be his best (due to TE/WR performance overall), but overall quarterbacking decision making, accuracy are the best of his career (leading to probably his lowest INT number). James Cook - no question his breakout season. He's not Barkley/Henry type (taking a team on your shoulder). But he's become a top offensive weapon in this league. O-Line - no one would've guessed that the Bills actually improved their O-line performance from last year which was widely considered their best in this millennium. Rousseau - his career year thus far. May not have huge sack numbers but opponents are now saying "don't let Rousseau beat us" Von Miller - was pretty much written off before the season but performed as a solid DE (I want to point out his run defense is surprisingly good, better the Epenesa). Benford - close to a career year without INT numbers. Rapp - he's close to what a peak Jordan Poyer is performing as the season progressed so far. Dorian Williams/Spector - stepped up. Not stars but performed better than we thought. Bass - re-discovered himself mid-season.

As long as we don't make stupid mistakes like turnovers, giving up big kick/punt returns, we'll be fine.

This year's Bills offence can win games on the ground and with receivers having size to win jump balls. That's a major difference. On defense, still a concern in games like this, against a team that can run the ball effectively. But at least our offense may match them up, and against teams like 49ers, probably forcing them to abandon the run pretty soon if we put another TD on them.

What happened to Carter?

The problem is the same game would NOT be played between Raiders and Jaguars because Jaguars are NOT the Chiefs! Just like if you starts with “if the same game played between the Bills and Chiefs..” everyone will jump on you and say the Bills are NOT the Raiders, and they are 100% correct.

Tom Brady’s playoff fumble against raiders was a lucky play. But after that, I don’t remember any big luck they got to went on to superbowl. You may say Brady missing a year was a payback for their luck.

There is luck involved. But sooner or later it will even out. Last year maybe they had bad luck regular season but reversed in the playoff. Also chiefs are fundamentally sound, meaning not making stupid mistakes like raiders. And that will change when they meet other teams who are also at the same level. Let’s move on. The main lesson is that you have to be fundamentally sound yourself, especially when playing against them. I read McDermott had the teams working on fundamentals after self scouting following the bye. That’s all I care about.

No bills practice today?

You don’t have to believe me. But check Eric and Anthony’s film studies. These guys do film breakdowns on Bills all 22 for like 7 years. They affirmatively said Milano missed tackles more than Willams.

Milano has great instincts, but I want to point out Williams is a better tackler than Milano. Generally speaking when he gets hand on you, it is over. That Ravens game Williams is the only guy who tackles Henry to the ground one on one, a few times. Cover 1 guys has breakdown on that. Their point is Williams has long arms AND upper body strength to make him a great tackler. of course instincts is a much more desirable attribute in any sports.

I guess very few of the players care about legacy, those do not until late into their career if they still have a choice. How many legacy soccer (more popular world wide) players you can name? Mike Tyson is certainly better known name than Montana, Brady etc. world wide. He may not be the nicest guy in the world but he’s a lot smarter than people give him credit for. I agree with what he said about legacy recently: "Man, I don't know. I don't believe in the word legacy. I just think that's another word for ego. That's just some word everybody grabbed onto. Now it's used every five seconds. It means absolutely nothing to me. I'm just passing through, I'mma die, and then it's going to be over. Who cares about legacy after that? We're the big eagles, so I'mma die. I want people to think that I'm this, I'm great. No, we're nothing. We're just dead. We're dust. We're absolutely nothing. Our legacy is nothing."

Floyd said openly that he follows money. Nothing wrong with that! Player agencies remind these guys constantly their youth is very limited. If someone offers 1 more guaranteed dollar, it’s a good bet he’s advised to take that offer.

I have not done a lot of research, but off the top of my head, off the ball linebackers generally don’t age well. Great ones are around the ball all the time, meaning they are involved in physical contact every play. Secondary guys have that physical contact # greatly reduced. D lineman gets hit every play but they are bigger and usually have a healthy rotation among them. counting on a 30 year old, often injured Milano is not smart. But if he can be that guy for the last 8 games (including playoffs), then we may indeed have the star lined up for us this year.

For the Ravens, I think it is clear that when they get Henry going, they can be tough. Defensively, not much changed. The Chiefs lost 3 of 4 last year before the stretch run at the end and then went on their playoff run. The defense rose up and Kelce found fountain of youth. This year I felt their defense is spent. I don’t expect much improvement. But on offense Pacheco is coming back and Hollywood Brown will be a late addition. Expect some offense improvement. The Bills went thru a bye and usually a lot of self scouting happens and some efficient gains. They might finally get full integration of Cooper and Coleman/kincaid healthy. I don’t expect defense to improve much but if Milano is truly back to some form of himself of the past, we can cut down some of the 10+yard play in the middle. New injury aside, the bills might have the biggest room to improve down the stretch.

I was impressed because you know who Davis absolutely destroyed on that play: chiefs #22.

Really? What’s Justin Jefferson’s rookie season like? How’s rams rookie wr last year performed? You gotta have faith in your evaluation. And then if you really need to, go the trade route like this year.

Of course they do. That’s just obvious. The question is how to get that #1 receiver? I believe in drafting your own! So you get 3-4years of cheap #1wr service. Imagine the bills drafted Jefferson instead of traded for Diggs!

Most likely scenario is bills were willing to take a step back this year, and took reloading pain. Philosophically, a subtle culture change in leadership, ie Allen to have bigger role there because it’s going to be necessary when his cap takes bigger percentage down the line. The bills can’t operate in the model of taking advantage of rookie qb contract phase to chase Super Bowl anymore. But it became obvious after first few games that a lot went right with Allen taking a step himself and many young guys showing they were ready to take prime roles. So Beane acted. Not a really complicated case for a competent GM (not some fortune telling genius GM either).

I know Torrence blocking two guys on the 2nd Cooper reception play was talked about a lot by many. I sometimes look other guys in those plays to see what they were doing. In this case, I notice the Ray Davis blocking on that play (blitz pickup) is pretty impressive. This is also why Cook is not on 3rd down very much because I have not seen him capable of doing that even 3 year into his career. There is talk about extension of Cook beyond his rookie contract. But seeing this kind of play makes you wonder though.

Mmmm. Do you think the Bills drafted better after Schoen left? Of course Beane makes final decision but he'd be influenced a lot by guys like Gray and Schoen around him.