PoundingDog

Need to do better on first down. Ty Johnson patient running might be something to build on

Here is what Mahomes said about Josh in the preser video. Very bland as well. Generally speaking, I think Mahomes has Tom Brady that kind of ultra competitive fire inside him - Tom did not show much outside where Mahomes can boil over more easily. Everyone knew Allen pretty much said he's like a big kid who likes to joke around, being one of the guys etc. This year he's taking a big step towards being THE unquestioned leader. Before you guys kill me, let me just say Josh has competitive fire. He's smart enough to know he has to overcome Mahomes in the playoff at some point and is taking the steps. But Mahomes is the kind of guy that ... in the example of last year's regular season Bills game, probably ate him for a week.

Look at from a different angle. There are about 64 offensive snaps in a typical game for the Bills. It is fair to say among Cook/Davis/Ty Johnson (run or pass), and Allen runs, about 30 snaps. That leaves about 34 snaps for WR and TEs. Kincaid/Knox/Morris may take 10 combined. So about 24 for WRs. Shakir deserves 8 targets. Coleman probably 5. Cooper between 5 - 8. Hollins may be 3. There is very little left for Samuel. When Coleman is out, Samuel's target should be up.

Kincaid ranked 6th (59) in NFL for targets thru 10 games. Pretty reasonable. Top 3 with 70+ targets are Kelce, Bowers (Raiders), Otton (Bucs) where there were significant injuries to WRs. If Kincaid was not injured last game, he might got to mid 60s target. There are legit questions on whether Kincaid himself is at Kelce, Bowers level that he deserves more targets. I myself had high expectations on Samuel when he was signed. But my friend worked at a sports agency kept telling me that Samuel value is really at versatility. No standout features at WR, nor RB. If there are injuries at slot and RB, he's great to have to fill in. But right now, Cook, Davis are better than him at RB. Shakir is way better than him at slot. So it is a struggle to get him on the field when those guys are healthy. Outside is not his strength as we saw last week. Keon is a rookie and Cooper got hurt 1 game in. Going forward, assuming Cooper plays more, I hope Brady can create some new plays based on his offensive concept that is ditched in training camp when he does not have a guy like Cooper - maybe start in the bye week. Gradually integrates those plays into practices Thursdays and Fridays. And ... hopefully we do not need to use them all the rest of the regular season and unleash them onto the Chiefs coming playoff time.

Does it matter? What is Chiefs core philosophy? How about just win? They used to score 50 points on people regularly. Now they barely eke out 17 points. What is Brady's Patriots core philosophy? They started dink and donk, run the ball a little. When they got Randy Moss, they dunked 50 on people. The point is you tweak your scheme to maximize the talent you have.

Still, no one talks about the James Cook weapon. I get it whenever they talk about Allen and the offense, they talk about the passing game and Allen's leg. Last year even when Cook surprised everyone with the Dallas game, it is still kind of one-off, not the norm kind of deal. I really feel this year is different. Yes KC is good against run, but so are quite a few teams we have faced this season and we still ran on them. The one thing I don't think we are doing particularly well is blending the pass and run. It used to be RPO that Josh did fairly well. Recently it is more play action based - and it should be based on how Cook and Davis are doing - but the mix is not quite there yet. Too often a play action resulted Josh holding onto the ball with nowhere to go with the ball. I don't know it is the receivers not selling the block (Gabe Davis was really good at that), or Josh is too greedy looking for big plays.

And we have to watch a new ad where Mahomes and Messi talk about is it kicking thru the upright or into the net over and over and over on TV.

No. The way KC is going this year, Mahomes is going to kick a 60 yarder for the win.

And that is the pretty much the championship - you need to be keen on every single detail from every single player - defense (you are on notice) and special teams.

I'd expect NFL is a perfect testing bed for AI. So many variations of holdings, PIs, etc. I can write some rules for defensive tackle violation for the machine learning model to start and then refine: 1) tackle an offensive player within 5 yards of LOS 2) hit QB below the knee 3) gab the inside collar of the back, and pull the player down 4) touch any part of a red and white jersey that has #15 on it. 5) wrap a ball carrier and then unweight themselves onto the baller carrier legs. ...

McGovern is more physical than Morse - taller, heavier, and longer arms (34+" vs 32+" pretty significant for a lineman), of course most importantly, a lot cheaper. For reference, Chris Jones has 34.5" arm length. Overall I think he's more stout than Morse, but not as mobile in going out in space for blocking. In general, he's better match up than Morse against a guy like Chris Jones. I myself do not remember the Bills ever had Morse go one on one against Jones, and I doubt they will let McGovern to do so either.

I know but they have seen the 5 O-linemen lined up together with Morse in the middle multiple times.

Well the Chiefs had seen the O-Line last year, twice! I don't think it's going to be that much a surprise to them. I hope they double Jones whenever they want a big play. Jones has the freedom to freelance and pick whichever lineman he wants to face. I want to use Belichick's philosophy here: player X can beat our O-Line but X cannot be Chris Jones.

That's so mis-interpreted off Taron's comment that "we want them to run." My interpretation is that we (the Bills) would line up to sway the Dolphins play selection towards run plays, BECAUSE we think we can stop their run plays better than their pass plays. The actual result is we allowed them to achieve the same result in running plays (vs pass plays). Thank God for the offense being able to match up to Dolphins and we came away with a win on the leg of a 61 yard field goal. It is NOT a sustainable approach.

Ed Oliver is who he is. I don't expect any late surge for his level because he relies heavily on his get-offs. That is not something improves when you age. Maybe we are all had too much hope for Kincaid. He's an older guy (25 already) coming out of college. 25 - 28 are generally the peak of peak of players development. ESPN, PFF all kind of had him at around top 5 in TE before the season. 10 games in, he's kind of middle of the road on passing stats. Certainly not bad. But not the kind of lead dog I think OBD had hoped for.

Overall, who has the better team? On defense, there is no question the Chiefs are better. On defense, it's a little complicated. I'll give Mahomes the edge over Allen. O-Line is close but the Bills might be a bit better. RB wise Bills are much better whereas TE is the opposite. WR Corp, with all the injuries on both side, we might be better if Cooper plays. So overall the Bills O is a bit better. Thus we all expect a close game and the matchup is such as well. The Bills are slightly favored because we are at home. In my mind, the Bills running attack holds the key. Spagnuolo is famous for confusing Allen in the past and Allen had to resort to his running and super-man effort to fight thru. This year, Allen has Cook who is playing at Pro-ball level in my opinion at his disposal. If Allen makes the right decisions at LOS, we can really do a job on the Chiefs D. Remember all those blitzes, changing picture stuff go out of the window if you cannot stop the run.

They have Morris. I expect they to elevate Zach Davidson, the 6'7" dude who has surprising hands in training camp. Not much a blocker, but can be a viable red zone target

Kincaid is arguably the biggest disappointment for the Bills. You can argue opponents paying more attention to him but we all kind of expected that he will have a game or two he dominates by now. Heck Rookie Keon had sort of a dominating game. Looks to me his skillset remains with smooth route running, plus catching ability kind of physical part. The mental part, the instinct to finding open spot, not running into coverage is not really there, at least not shown now. Also he's still a below average blocker.

Just some balance and giving us some insight on what Spagnuolo is studying tonight. Erik's comment on Allen's second INT in the comment section is that Moore saw that one in the very pass play of the game. That's also why you rarely see OC calling the same play twice in a game, and if they do, usually with different personnel grouping and variations.

I think they'll do all they can to win the game. If a player says he can go, he'll go..

Also.

The Bills actually have not beat Mahome's Chiefs in Buffalo, ever. Of course, that's not the point. What we really need is to beat them in the playoffs. In AFC, only Tom Brady and Joe Burrow were able to beat Mahomes in the past. We'll see when Allen gets on that short list. Both teams are dealing with key injuries so if they meet in the playoffs, the teams might look different. There is no mystery between these two teams. But I'll say the Bills' running game might be something different from what we present to the Chiefs in the past. Cook has taken a noticeable step, as well as Davis who they have not faced before. So we'll see how this running games presents meaningful difference against the Chiefs vaunted defense. Let's face it, we have faced a number of stout run defenses and we are able to run on all of them, even in losses to the Ravens and the Texans (we just stopped running because of scores etc.), and unlike years of past, running game is a key component of Bills offense overall. On the flip side, it will give the Chiefs first hand knowledge how to defend our run game, tendencies and plot a way to better defending it coming January.

Good observation. BUT, we know luck is a big part of any sports, especially football. Because he rushed slow, way past the QB line AND being blocked right there, the sacked/fumbled ball bounced right to his feet.

That drive is very Brady's Patriots like in years when they don't have outside weapon.