PoundingDog

Bad luck or some sort of a trend of the front office - 2019 we got Oliver but there are other DTs drafted afterwards better, guys that are play more at Chris Jones level; 2020 we traded for Diggs, but Justin Jefferson was drafted with our original draft pick who turns to be a likely HoF player; 2023 we picked Kincaid who looks to be a good player, but LaPorta might be a special player drafted later. But we did pick the best QB in 2018 though.

So should Allen's be re-evaluated 2027? I feel Mahomes will reset the market.

This. And I'll add we are at a point it will be hard to add an guy like Metcalf (or potential Hendrickson) because it requires both a high draft pick and loads of money. Good point of taking a swing at a rising player. I think Hoecht is in that category too, evident by them investing fair good money despite knowing his suspension. The most important thing for the Bills I think is the improvement from their young players. Terrence is already there but they certainly hope Kincaid, Williams, Bishop and Coleman and become reliable starters. Can any one of them pop to even be considered an elite guy at the league level?

I think the game has changed some. Mobile QB that can throw is the norm now. Guys like Burrow is the rare one. I agree Burrow may have a shorter career than Josh but that has less to do with Burrow being immobile, more abut Burrow's body build. The GOAT got big hits rarely and he has a much stronger QB body than Burrow. I expect Josh to be smart enough to increase his conditional as he gets older (less beer guzzling and wine drink for example) so he can still move some. Also his experience will allow he to be smarter in terms when to risk all for run and when not to. I use Roethlisberger as an example but expect/hope Josh can still move unlike Roethlisberger's last 3 years.

As a Bills fan, I don't have a problem because we all know we want to Josh to be the Bills QB until he can't play any more and that is probably more than 10 years from now. As an organization, I feel this is more like a raise to Josh than a true extension because it is only 2 additional years on top of the 4 years remaining. Note this is not adding 2 years to the original deal as everyone noted. This is replacing the old one averaging something like $43 million/year to $55 million/year now. I don't know how many true franchise QBs (Brady, Manning, Rogers, Roethlisberger etc.) of the past had this kind of re-work of the contracts in their prime with 4 years remaining. Nothing wrong in terms of Josh's play or importance to the Bills in NFL landscape. But would you rather wait for 2 more years and give him a normal kind of extension with market setting deal, which is more of the norm? I guess the questions are first and foremost, would Josh be unhappy and then would it be saving money overall expecting the QB market continue to move up? The downside is that precedence is set. Two years from now, when the market is reset, especially when Mahomes re-do his deal (which should be a new record), would we have to adjust Allen's again? The golden standard to me is still Mahomes and he's averaging $45 million a year as of now even though there are a lot of restructure and something like couple of $60 million void years added at the end. Maybe the Chiefs will re-do Mahomes contract soon, but as of right now, the hard fact is Mahomes helps out the Chiefs more than Josh for the Bills. Maybe State Farm pays Mahomes so much money that he does not really care. Looking beyond Mahomes, Brady probably helps out the Patriots more than anyone we know.

At around 30:30 mark where Beane said Josh "busting his chop by texting him, say this QB or that QB gets a deal, dropping him down the line."

Not sure. There might be void years cap hit next year. Dorian will be entering year 3 while Milano is still ahead of him. I don't know how much an entrenched starter he will be for a "show us" year 4. The Bills did spend a draft pick on a LB last year so there is some depth.

Look, we kind of know what Beane is by now. He values -- I mean really values -- draft picks. But he's a bit of a gambler on traits. Top picks under his watch, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Elam, Kincaid, Coleman all had elite physical traits that he hoped that if mentally unlocked would translate to true big stars. It worked out splendidly on Allen. Somewhat on Rousseau - I think at age 24, his book is still being written. Definitely not on Edmunds and Elam. I don't think he's going to shell out big time draft assets for any aging star, defined like around age 30 or so.

You are asking the hypothetical scenario that would I draft JJ 2020 knowing what he is today, even with the the unknown on how Josh would turn out with Jefferson. 100% I will take the chance that Josh will turn out just as good with Diggs.

I agree there is no guarantee. But I, and I think most football fans would bet that the chance of a prime year HoF bound QB and a prime year HoF bound receiver working out great would be very high, if not extremely high.

You just don't know. The example you gave - Diggs being the best equivalent the Bills out of their 1st round picks in recent years. Ironically, had the Beane hold onto that 1st round pick and did what the Vikings did, drafting WR Jefferson, the Bills would've have a HoF level player in his prime along with Allen.

I was wrong. 2022 is the last year they did that. and 2023 they did for coaches

Hindsight is 20-20. But as a GM, you gotta be able to find lasting talent on your 1st round picks. They are more or less the foundation of the team you build.

All of us arm chair GMs severely underestimate the value of draft picks in recent years, especially 1st round. Can someone tell me WHEN is the last time a team traded away a first round pick for a non QB, or even for a QB? Answer: 5 years ago. The reason is simple: with the trend of salary escalation for star players, 1st round pick, even day two picks, are valued as almost important for starters in an NFL team.

I remember he did say "I'm pretty good at getting to the quarterback" with some awkward laugh afterwards. This is the 2nd time Beane took a run at a known pass rusher. The difference is Miller came in on a white horse with superbowl rings at age 33; Bosa came in from an LA dump truck at age 29. Miller's buffalo story is that his white horse broken down. Let's see how Bosa writes his Buffalo story.

When you are released basically for not THE guy any more, it puts you on a different perspective. Plus he has not really won anything in NFL

Hoecht addressed at length. Seems to be sincere. Beane said they watched closely last year how Rams tendered him. So apparently they had eyes on him for awhile. It's an over pay but he immediately becomes the biggest LB the Bills have. Maybe he does become the Lorenzo Alexander for McDermott.

Find the best masking agent to take now Joey!

Would that be a problem now that they are, say, off the roids, will they still be effective? Many have accused Shawn Merriman for his performance fell off the cliff after he was suspended from using PED, presumably not using them any more.

That's what I'm getting at. "ready to win" here means to win a superbowl because the Chargers have been a regular season winning team since the arrival of Herbert. But they haven't been able to win a playoff game yet (probably due to the Chiefs as well because they never had a home playoff game). I do like the fact that being outright released - he did talk about that, something like being the main guy to being released - gotta sting him some. Sometimes it forces you to look in the mirror and wonder if you are that guy (6-7 years ago) any more. The motivation is certainly different from when Von signed up here.

Best 1-tech and CB at pick 30. To me, the likelihood a 1-tech at 30 may have a higher ceiling. But maybe McDermott can find another Tra White at 30.

Lots of hoopla and attention for a guy signed for one year and $12.5 million. Noticed that he said "I expect to be a starter" which if you pay attention was absent from Von Miller in various media conversations last few years. Von Miller was signed with top pass rusher overall contract (6 years) at the time. He's a sure fire first ballot future HOF with 2 superbowl rings. Joey Bosa is signed to a prove-it one year deal. And he openly admitted that his career clock is ticking to "win (superbowl)". I don't know he's a HoF candidate to be honest. But I sense the aura is the same from Von to Joey. They both expect to kind of push the Bills over the top themselves and the majority media/fans kind of expect the same. Hope that we learned from the Von experience not to pin our hope on an aging star. One thing I can't shake off is that Bosa was released from the Chargers, a team with Herbert as QB, and a proven HC Harbaugh. What does Bosa mean it's time to "win" - I think he meant to win the superbowl? Didn't the Chargers load up more than the Bills in the past for a superbowl run?

I don't know we are much better at D. We pretty much signed a bunch of role players to be honest, which is par for the course in FA for teams like us. You are not going to get a prime Chris Jones type in FA market. Bosa is a name. But there are reasons the Chargers wanted to trade him, and no one wanted to do that. There are reasons no one is offering more than the Bills offered for a one-year prove-it deal. I'm not saying Beane should not take a chance -- honestly I would if I were in Beans' position; the point is difference makers are going to come from the draft. This is a D-Line talent heavy draft. I remember in 2019, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Allen (not QB), Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary, Christian Wilkens, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffrey Simmons, Montez Sweat, Jerry Tillery, LJ Collier drafted in the first round. Maxx Crosby was later drafted in the 4th. Is it too much to ask that Beane do better than 2019 where he got Oliver?

I like my safeties have instincts. Anyone knows how is he in that department? For reference, Hyde was always considered an instinctual player, even when he was used as CB in GB, just not fast enough. Poyer was not all that in general but McDermott must had seen something and gave him a 4 year contract right out of the bat (Hyde got a 6 year deal btw). The fact they are giving him a 1 year deal tells me at this point, they want to see how he functions in Buffalo.

To me, outside of CB2, we still have question mark on 1T DT and FS. People may say we have Daquan Jones, but he's not good enough right now in my opinion. And we are banking on Bishop to become a play maker at FS.