PoundingDog

Bad luck or some sort of a trend of the front office - 2019 we got Oliver but there are other DTs drafted afterwards better, guys that are play more at Chris Jones level; 2020 we traded for Diggs, but Justin Jefferson was drafted with our original draft pick who turns to be a likely HoF player; 2023 we picked Kincaid who looks to be a good player, but LaPorta might be a special player drafted later. But we did pick the best QB in 2018 though.

So should Allen's be re-evaluated 2027? I feel Mahomes will reset the market.

This. And I'll add we are at a point it will be hard to add an guy like Metcalf (or potential Hendrickson) because it requires both a high draft pick and loads of money. Good point of taking a swing at a rising player. I think Hoecht is in that category too, evident by them investing fair good money despite knowing his suspension. The most important thing for the Bills I think is the improvement from their young players. Terrence is already there but they certainly hope Kincaid, Williams, Bishop and Coleman and become reliable starters. Can any one of them pop to even be considered an elite guy at the league level?

I think the game has changed some. Mobile QB that can throw is the norm now. Guys like Burrow is the rare one. I agree Burrow may have a shorter career than Josh but that has less to do with Burrow being immobile, more abut Burrow's body build. The GOAT got big hits rarely and he has a much stronger QB body than Burrow. I expect Josh to be smart enough to increase his conditional as he gets older (less beer guzzling and wine drink for example) so he can still move some. Also his experience will allow he to be smarter in terms when to risk all for run and when not to. I use Roethlisberger as an example but expect/hope Josh can still move unlike Roethlisberger's last 3 years.

As a Bills fan, I don't have a problem because we all know we want to Josh to be the Bills QB until he can't play any more and that is probably more than 10 years from now. As an organization, I feel this is more like a raise to Josh than a true extension because it is only 2 additional years on top of the 4 years remaining. Note this is not adding 2 years to the original deal as everyone noted. This is replacing the old one averaging something like $43 million/year to $55 million/year now. I don't know how many true franchise QBs (Brady, Manning, Rogers, Roethlisberger etc.) of the past had this kind of re-work of the contracts in their prime with 4 years remaining. Nothing wrong in terms of Josh's play or importance to the Bills in NFL landscape. But would you rather wait for 2 more years and give him a normal kind of extension with market setting deal, which is more of the norm? I guess the questions are first and foremost, would Josh be unhappy and then would it be saving money overall expecting the QB market continue to move up? The downside is that precedence is set. Two years from now, when the market is reset, especially when Mahomes re-do his deal (which should be a new record), would we have to adjust Allen's again? The golden standard to me is still Mahomes and he's averaging $45 million a year as of now even though there are a lot of restructure and something like couple of $60 million void years added at the end. Maybe the Chiefs will re-do Mahomes contract soon, but as of right now, the hard fact is Mahomes helps out the Chiefs more than Josh for the Bills. Maybe State Farm pays Mahomes so much money that he does not really care. Looking beyond Mahomes, Brady probably helps out the Patriots more than anyone we know.

At around 30:30 mark where Beane said Josh "busting his chop by texting him, say this QB or that QB gets a deal, dropping him down the line."

Not sure. There might be void years cap hit next year. Dorian will be entering year 3 while Milano is still ahead of him. I don't know how much an entrenched starter he will be for a "show us" year 4. The Bills did spend a draft pick on a LB last year so there is some depth.

Look, we kind of know what Beane is by now. He values -- I mean really values -- draft picks. But he's a bit of a gambler on traits. Top picks under his watch, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Elam, Kincaid, Coleman all had elite physical traits that he hoped that if mentally unlocked would translate to true big stars. It worked out splendidly on Allen. Somewhat on Rousseau - I think at age 24, his book is still being written. Definitely not on Edmunds and Elam. I don't think he's going to shell out big time draft assets for any aging star, defined like around age 30 or so.

You are asking the hypothetical scenario that would I draft JJ 2020 knowing what he is today, even with the the unknown on how Josh would turn out with Jefferson. 100% I will take the chance that Josh will turn out just as good with Diggs.

I agree there is no guarantee. But I, and I think most football fans would bet that the chance of a prime year HoF bound QB and a prime year HoF bound receiver working out great would be very high, if not extremely high.

You just don't know. The example you gave - Diggs being the best equivalent the Bills out of their 1st round picks in recent years. Ironically, had the Beane hold onto that 1st round pick and did what the Vikings did, drafting WR Jefferson, the Bills would've have a HoF level player in his prime along with Allen.

I was wrong. 2022 is the last year they did that. and 2023 they did for coaches

Hindsight is 20-20. But as a GM, you gotta be able to find lasting talent on your 1st round picks. They are more or less the foundation of the team you build.

All of us arm chair GMs severely underestimate the value of draft picks in recent years, especially 1st round. Can someone tell me WHEN is the last time a team traded away a first round pick for a non QB, or even for a QB? Answer: 5 years ago. The reason is simple: with the trend of salary escalation for star players, 1st round pick, even day two picks, are valued as almost important for starters in an NFL team.

I remember he did say "I'm pretty good at getting to the quarterback" with some awkward laugh afterwards. This is the 2nd time Beane took a run at a known pass rusher. The difference is Miller came in on a white horse with superbowl rings at age 33; Bosa came in from an LA dump truck at age 29. Miller's buffalo story is that his white horse broken down. Let's see how Bosa writes his Buffalo story.