CosmicBills

Simon was begging Clements to say he won't be coming back to the Bills. He was flat out harrassing him into that answer. It was annoying to listen to frankly. However, I'm glad he did it because Nate did NOT take the bait. In fact, Nate corrected him several times saying he would indeed come back if the offer is right. Does this mean he will? No. But this interview (listening more than reading it) gives me more hope than I've had in a few months. At the very least I know that Nate hasn't written the Bills off and is considering the improvement made to the team this season with the new staff and players. And everything the team has said makes me believe they are not going to let him go without putting up a fight. Here's a scenario I think that could unfold: Nate all but said he was going to take his time in FA -- and not be a midnight signing. That's great. If the Bills can make a splash early and sign one or two guys (say A.Thomas from Baltimore) that shows they are commited to winning in '07, it might be enough to lure Nate back at a home town discount -- even if that discount is slim.

No one in the history of football has ever called Villarial a "great RG". Even when he's 100% healthy, which he hasn't been for 2 seasons. The best guard on the roster is Gandy -- who will be resigned -- and that says an awful lot. I'm not down on Gandy as much as some here are, but it doesn't change the fact that if he's the best guard on your team, your team is in a heap of trouble. As for the original plan of this thread, it's an interesting scenario, but one I think the front office will be less inclined to employ. There is no doubt the Bills will target some OL on day one (and I think Mozes could be one of them, he's a Levy type of guy), I doubt they will grab more than one on the first day. And I am doubtful they will take one at 12. A trade up into the later half of round one (or two) might be possible though. But that's just my guess.

Very good points. I tend to agree with your assesment here.

The Bills already have an undersized center who gets pushed around. No thank you.

Touche. I am not ready to call the Youboty pick "squandered" because there isn't enough information. If the kid turns out to be the kind of player he was predicted to be heading into the draft, then getting him in the 4th round will be a steal. But it is a bit alarming that he was unable to crack the lineup in the later half of the year. Obviously he suffered a huge set back (and personal loss) in camp, so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds with a full offseason, OTAs and camp. If he can't challenge for the nickle spot (with or without Nate around) this off season, then I would be inclinded to agree with the term "squandered". And I agree with you about the lines needed work. In both this section and the one dealing with the Offense, the lines are high priorities. However, I wonder if the front office sees it the same way. Marv's comments on his last show were especially interesting to me. When asked about the offensive line by Murph he said (paraphrased) "We need to get better up front." However, when discussing the defensive line he hesitated and said (paraphrased) "We have worked on the D Line and they need to improve and will improve." That says to me the Bills don't have DT as a high priority this off season which is something I noted in this long winded analysis. Of course, it could also be a smoke screen.

Just a shameless bump since these topics keep coming back up.

Just a shameless bump since these topics keep coming back up.

Interesting stuff from everyone here. I think it's interesting to note that both Overdorf and Levy stated (at least once each) on the show that their number one priority is resigning their own players. Number two was the draft, and the last resort was UFA. However, right on the heels of those comments, Overdorf states emphatically that since it has become a "cash" league that may not be possible. Lots of double speak around this time of year at OBD.

I understand this -- I think. But here's my question. What's stopping Ralph from using his own money on Signing Bonuses? Other than him not wanting to? For the most part, all these owners are billionares with loads of cash. I know people like to paint Ralph as being stingy (and maybe that's justified), but is there anything preventing him from dipping into his own cash to pay? Or is it in the CBA that the only monies you can use are the ones generated by the organization itself?

Interesting. So then why do you think Nate is out of the Bills' price range? Assuming he wants to come back all things being equal? Or do you?

I'm not sure who (if anyone) watches those multimedia segments on Buffalobills.com, but in the most recent Marv Levy show (after the Raven's game) Jim Overdorf was on explaining where the Bills stand with the cap. He explained that the league has changed from a Cap League to a Cash League and fans should consider that in regards to the Bills' upcoming FA aquisitions. I know this was a huge topic when the new CBA was approved, but I am still a bit in the dark about the difference. I've heard some people say that teams in larger markets will be able to offer more in the way of signing bonuses than the small market clubs -- but doesn't that still count against the cap? If not, moreso? For instance, the Bills have 40+ under the cap this season, second most in the league (I think?) -- why is it assumed that teams with lesser cap room will be bigger players in the FA market if, as Overdorf said on the show, The Bills aim to opperate right at the cap limit each year. To me that means the Bills are going to be spenders. So, what am I missing here? Any cap guru's out there want to explain the difference between a Cash and Cap league?

Not only is Brady assured a spot in the HOF, he is the best big game QB in recent history. Belechick has been a part of more championship teams than any other coach in the game today -- be it in coordinating positions or HC. He too is assured a spot in the HOF. Both these guys could lose every game they play from here on out and still be rushed to Canton on a red carpet. Any other conclusion is not only incorrect, but slightly insane. As much as I despise the Pats, I am very aware every time I watch them play that I am watching one of the best QBs of the era huck the pig skin.

Yes he is.

Thanks, glad you enjoyed it.

Now that's a pick I could get behind. At the combine he has a chance to break the record for the "Nerd Toss".

Pyrite and I just like to expound.

That is an interesting possibility I didn't consider (and probably should have). However, my gut reaction is that the front office wants someone more physical in the middle than Fletcher or Crowell. But that is based on an assumption, not facts. That's why I expect them to draft a MLB rather than an OLB. Of course, one scenario that could play out would be for the Bills to go hard after Adalius Thomas (OLB, Baltimore) if he reaches the FA market and then move Crowell back inside (or even put Thomas there). Though, I'm expecting Thomas to either be resigned or too expensive for Buffalo to consider. But that move would allow them to head into '07 without losing a ton of experience in the LB corps.

I agree with this. The Bills don't need a Ted Ginn Jr type, they need a tall, physical receiver to take up the middle of the field and force the defenses to account for him in the redzone. Roscoe, Josh and Peerless are good at niche things -- but they don't fit that bill. The lack of this sort of target really hurt the Bills and it's something I fully expect them to address in the off season. I know there are already threads on Jarrett, and he would be an interesting fit if he is still around at 12. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bills take him. However, this is also an area that could be addressed in FA with a Drew Bennet type as well. I guess my point was that going into the season, people (myself included) expected the WR corps to be a real strength on this team with their speed and Fairchild's background. But it just wasn't the case. Instead, the corps turned into a liabilty, and that is something that will be addressed in the coming months.

I'm selling them for a quarter.

Assessing the ’06 Team: Yeah, this is long. So long I broke it into two parts, Offense and Defense. Obviously I have too much time on my hands, but it’s the playoffs and the Bills aren’t playing. So I’m bored. This is how I cope. It's far too early to discuss with any reliable accuracy the Bills’ “Off Season Plan” since both the combine/draft hype and Free Agency are still over eight weeks away. Until we get closer to those dates, the most efficient way to figure out what strategy the Bills might employ is to evaluate the ’06 roster and see what holes there are to fill. This is the first step the Front Office will take. They will spend the next few weeks reviewing and analyzing their own team to see what positions need to be addressed in the off season. This means pouring over hours of game footage, practice notes and contracts. Since I don't have any of those resources, I'm going from my gut based on what I saw. Consider this the first part of my off season analysis. The next parts will be FA and the Draft. DEFENSE: DE: Perhaps the happiest person on the roster last year when the Bills announced they would be adopting the Tampa-2 was Aaron Schobel. Unlike Gray’s system, the Tampa-2 finally allowed Schobel and all the Bills’ ends to RUSH THE PASSER. In previous years they were assigned containment zones, zone blitzes and numerous other “wrinkles” which prevented them from doing what they do best. One year into the Tampa-2 and the ends suddenly came alive. And for once, it doesn’t seem to be a huge area of need. The number one priority needs to be resigning Chris Kelsay. Like the DT, the Bills rotate their DE’s in waves. Aaron Schobel, Ryan Denney, Kelsay, Anthony Hargrove are as solid a group as you’ll find. The front office has to do what it can to keep it together. DT: This is a dangerous group for the fans to evaluate. There is no secret that the Bills’ D was sliced and diced on the ground this season. Fans claim that can be fixed by getting a “Ted Washington type” DT in there. I’m not certain this is the case. My understanding of the Tampa-2 scheme the team runs is it requires a penetrating one gap DT, not a monstrous two gap stuffer. I admit that I am a bit in the dark about the specifics having never played in a Tampa-2 defense (or coached it), but I don’t think the Bills are going to bring in huge body and try to force him into the system. Still, it’s clear the Bills’ need help upfront. What makes this position so tough to predict from an Off Season Strategy perspective is the amount of work the Bills did to the unit last year. Let’s review: 1. They signed Tripplett 2. Traded UP to draft McCargo. 3. Spent a fifth round pick on K. Williams. 4. And then in mid season, added Hargrove to the mix as both a DE and a DT. Injuries and the relative age and inexperience of the DL makes it the most difficult unit to analyze. It’s clear that Tripplett has been somewhat of a disappointment. McCargo and Hargrove haven’t been on the field long enough to properly evaluate. Meanwhile Williams was steady – and logic says he will only get better. The only thing we know for sure is that Tim Anderson is gone. That being the case, it could be easy for Marv and Co. to hold pat – give these guys one more year to see if they age into their roles any better. To me, this would be a mistake. The Bills need to add one DT to the group. Not necessarily a first round pick, but certainly a first day pick needs to be added. As stated above, the Bills play their DL in waves. Right now they have Tripplett/Williams and McCargo (plus AH on pass rush situations) … and that’s it. With Anderson’s departure, a slot will need to be filled. But it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Bills are at plugging that hole. It will say a lot about how highly they regard Williams and McCargo. OLB: How will Spikes bounce back from the Achilles injury? That was the question heading into the ’06 season and it’s the same question the Bills face as they head into the off season. Spikes played this year and showed flashes of his old self. Yet, he was bit by the injury bug too much to have any real sort of answer. Optimists feel that it takes two years (much like an ACL) to come back from an Achilles injury. Skeptics say you can never come all the way back. The issue was exacerbated when Crowell went down with a broken foot towards the end of the season. Rookie Keith Ellison stepped up and played well – but he seems to be the same sort of player as Crowell: small, scrappy and athletic. He’ll get beat up by bruising blockers but will make plays in the passing game. Still, I think the Bills are impressed by Ellison and still think highly of Crowell. That being the case, I think they feel confident heading into the off season with little to no shakeup here. If Spikes struggles again in ’07, this will jump up to a huge area of need for this team. But right now, they are pretty stable. MLB: Yes, Fletcher is on the wrong side of 30. Yes, Fletcher still makes too many tackles down the field. But damn if Fletch isn’t the heart and soul of this defense. He is a locker room leader, makes all the defensive calls, and plays well in the Tampa-2 defense – his team high 4 interceptions attest to that. Still, every interview I’ve seen with him makes me believe he won’t be coming back. He has left the window open, but he seems ready to leave the Bills behind after they failed to extend him prior to this season. And truthfully, I don’t expect the Bills to put up much of a fight. They want to get younger in the middle and more athletic. The FA MLB pool is slim which means this will be a position addressed in the draft --possibly in the first round, but certainly on the first day. I would rank the need for a MLB right up there with a solid Number 2 WR and ahead of a DT. CB: I’m as optimistic as they come and really want to believe Nate will come back. But the realist says he’s already packing up for NYC. Still, this is one of the easiest positions to analyze on the team. With Nate, the Bills are as solid as any other team in the NFL. McGee, Nate, Thomas (assuming he is resigned) and Youboty are solid. With another year to develop, the Bills will be able to nurse Youboty along and see if he can challenge for the nickel spot in camp. Without Nate, the Bills are in trouble. McGee is too often nicked up to be a shut down corner. Thomas does not impress me as a number 2 guy. It would force the Bills to rush Youboty along – which could turn out great or could be a disaster. Point being, if Nate goes, there is a large hole to fill. The common wisdom on TSW these days seems to be “sign Samuel!” But to me, this is a bigger pipe dream than resigning Nate. Let me walk everyone through this. The pessimists believe Nate won’t come back because the Bills won’t open up their wallets wide enough to keep him. Here’s the newsflash: Samuel’s 11 INTs this season assures that he will be just as pricey as Nate. So, if the Bills won’t pay for Nate, why would they pay for Samuel? I don’t think it’s a secret that, all things being equal, the Bills would rather keep Nate than get Samuel. So forget fixing this hole in FA. That means that the Bills would be forced to use a high draft pick on a CB who could step in and be a number 2 (eventually a number 1) right away. With the 12th pick in the draft, this is certainly possible – even if it would kill some posters to see the Bills use yet ANOTHER first round pick on a DB. Still, I have my fingers crossed that Nate will be wearing a Buffalo on his helmet in ’07. SS/FS: Okay, I lied. This is the easiest position to assess. Two rookies who played above expectations this year will return. The PT they got this year will be invaluable down the road. I expect both DW and KS to be strengths on this D next year.

Assessing the ’06 Team: Yeah, this is long. So long I broke it into two parts, Offense and Defense. Obviously I have too much time on my hands, but it’s the playoffs and the Bills aren’t playing. So I’m bored. This is how I cope. It's far too early to discuss with any reliable accuracy the Bills’ “Off Season Plan” since both the combine/draft hype and Free Agency are still over eight weeks away. Until we get closer to those dates, the most efficient way to figure out what strategy the Bills might employ is to evaluate the ’06 roster and see what holes there are to fill. This is the first step the Front Office will take. They will spend the next few weeks reviewing and analyzing their own team to see what positions need to be addressed in the off season. This means pouring over hours of game footage, practice notes and contracts. Since I don't have any of those resources, I'm going from my gut based on what I saw. Consider this the first part of my off season analysis. The next parts will be FA and the Draft. OFFENSE: QB: JP's arrival might not have been a fireworks display or an atomic bomb. Hell it might not have even been a cherry bomb, but the kid has clearly arrived. Dick announced mid-season that JP would be "the guy" in '07 and his play down the stretch only validated the team's confidence in him. It's nice to know that for the first time in a long time the Bills won't be searching for an answer to the QB question. Nall and Holcomb offer quality depth as well. RB: “Willis-Gate” is heating up. Sportswriters and those "in the know" seem to think Willis is angling to force a trade more so than a contract extension. My belief is that the Bills will indeed look for trading partners for Willis, but a high price tag (2nd/3rd round pick, maybe more) will limit those options. He will be offered a contract extension for less than he expects. Willis won't sign it, but he also won't hold out. He'll show up and play out his remaining contract and be gone in FA. That is how I see this scenario unfolding. This scenario means that the Bills will have a hole to fill in the RB position sooner than they might like. If someone does take the bait and depart with a second round pick for Willis (something that could unfold on Draft Day but is highly unlikely), then the Bills would be forced to address this issue in the draft. Regardless of how the situation resolves itself, I expect the Bills to eschew the FA route and focus instead on resigning A-Train to provide them a cheap, durable backup/spot starter and draft a young back in April. It’s possible this pick could come higher in the draft than some on TSW might like. Even if Willis sticks in '07, bringing in a young back has to be a priority to protect against his departure. FB: Shelton is good but aging quickly as most FBs do. Cieslak proved he was able to handle some of the duties, but the staff appeared to lose some confidence in his lead blocking abilities in the final game against Baltimore (who could blame them?). This is an area of need, though not high on the list. I expect the Bills to bring in some FAs to compete, but Shelton/Cieslak will probably handle the duties in ’07. WR: Everyone knows Lee is a good WR. He is a game breaker and handled Moulds' departure better than most anticipated. The problem with the WR corps is the rest of the group. Price, Josh, Roscoe, Aiken, Davis are all good niche players. None are good Number 2 receivers. Roscoe and Josh have their talents on third down and in the slot; Price can stretch the field but doesn't get open enough to be a true Number 2; and Aiken and Davis are special team studs. After the Bye Week, the lack of a big WR (or TE, but more on that in a moment) had more of an impact on the passing game this season than any other element of the team. Yes, even more than the line. Let me state this as clearly as I can: WR PLAY STALLED THE OFFENSE MORE THAN ANY OTHER POSITION BUT FOR TE. Fairchild wants to open up the passing attack. And why shouldn't he? The line is coming together; he has a QB who can make all the throws, and a game changing WR in Evans. Opening up the passing game will do wonders for the running game and the Bills' production in the red zone. The problem is you can't open up the passing game until you get a quality Number 2 receiver. There just isn’t that sort of player on the roster right now. Expect the Bills to address this in FA or the Draft. A lot of people on here will say the Bills would be foolish to spend the #12 pick on a WR -- and they may have a point -- but truth is WR is right near the top of the "need" list. TE: Royal was an upgrade for the position, however, he wasn't the game changer in the passing game Marv hoped for when he signed him. Everett had a hard time cracking the lineup at times and, according to Dick, was still "learning the system" half way through the year. Cieslak played well when given the chance, but he didn't stand out as a real threat in the passing game either. This has been an area of need for the Bills for sometime now. While it's too early to call Everett a bust, it's not too early to say the Bills still need a game breaking TE. However, the early draft reports are thin at TE which means it's unlikely one will be available in April. There are few in the FA market as well that would qualify as "game breakers". The lack of options here only adds urgency to the Bills' quest to find a solid Number 2 receiver. JP needs a big, reliable target to take up the middle of the field, loosen the Defense and take pressure off of Lee. This simply will not be accomplished this off season in the TE position. OL: Even the most hardened skeptics have to admit that the OL improved dramatically after the Bye Week shuffle. The left side was solid -- Peters & Gandy were counted on to handle the bulk of the rushing load and excelled in pass protection. The right side was young, but gained tremendous experience as the year wore on. Fowler was steady, if unspectacular, in the pivot. However, was the improvement so dramatic because the line is solid or did it just appear to be solid in comparison to the horrendous lines of the past few seasons? It's a matter of degrees, but an important question. I think when they go back through the film they are going to find that the tackles are set (Peters and Pennington appear to be the real deal -- even if Pennington is still very, very green), but the rest is up for debate. Despite this, I feel confident in one prediction: Gandy will be resigned. He played well enough to deserve an extension and is the best guard on the roster. Preston took a step back in my eyes and now has a huge question mark over his helmet. I think the Bills will go hard in FA and the draft after OG and C to add more competition to the mix. The danger the Bills front office faces right now is assuming the OL is fine. It is better, yes, but it is not "fine". It needs upgrades in the middle. Picking at 12 makes taking a OG almost out of the question. I expect a 2nd or 3rd round OG and possible a FA or two to be brought in.

No, I understand that. I'm just saying it would not surprise me if the Bills were a bit gunshy about spending another high draft pick (or two) or even breaking the bank for a FA when the results of their work last year can't really be determined yet. The players they got are still too young (or too green) to be fully evaluated. They have no idea what they have with McCargo and Hargrove (who is a FA I expect back). They have a better idea about Williams, but he can only get better. And Triplett was a let down (I think privately the front office would admit that) -- but he is still a solid DT, even if he's unspectacular. I guess that's my point.

A DT will be brought in to replace Tim Anderson who is clearly on his way out the door. That is the only thing we know for sure. Whether its a FA or a first round pick is yet to be seen. But remember this. The Bills added FOUR DTs this year, two by trade. They traded up to get McCargo (who cannot be called a bust -- yet), took KW in the fifth round, signed Larry to a decent sized deal then, in mid season, traded to bring in AH who plays both DE and DT. That is a lot of draft picks used up on DTs. YOUNG DTs who the Bills most likely think higher of than many of us. It would not surprise me at all if the front office was thinking something like, "McCargo was hurt, he needs more time. Williams developed nicely and will only get better. And Hargrove is the type of player that fits our system." Meaning, they might want to stand with these young guys for now and don't see as big a hole in the DL as the fans do. That might be a mistake, it might not. Time will tell. But clearly, for the roster sake, a DT will be added to replace Anderson. I'm just not certain it will be a big FA signing or a flashy draft pick. So be prepared.

I know this is a joke post -- it has to be -- but I can't resist... To question JP's toughness is like arguing that the sky is in fact pink. JP is only the third QB in Bills' HISTORY to take every snap of the season for the team. When is the last time Pennington did that? Thanks for playing....goodbye