CosmicBills

The draft is on the NFL Network this year and not ESPN??

But Obie, they have Crowell for MLB who has the range and athleticism necessary to play the Cover 2 successfully. He's not a stud, but he's like having A-Train as your starting RB. Neither is a stud, but both are capable. So I stand by my stance that the needs at LB and RB are pretty much equal.

You're discounting the notion that teams will trade up to get Peterson if he slips past the Browns. ... and in your example, Willis goes to the 49ers at 11, proving my point. There aren't any realistic scenarios where both Willis and Peterson are both available at 12.

I think that is a fair point, and probably accurate. I still say it's a somewhat pointless debate since there are no real scenarios where both players will be available to choose from at 12.

Which is exactly why in round one you take the best player available regardless of need. If Willis and Peterson are sitting there at 12, you take Peterson because he is the best player available IMO. If it's Willis and Lynch? Then you take Willis. But realisitically, in order for Peterson to fall to 12, Willis will have to be drafted before the Bills get on the clock (and visa versa), making this discussion moot.

I don't doubt that. But the staff seems to be content with Angie as the MLB. So, the hole on the team is OLB, a position that Willis doesn't play.

But don't you think that Angie is going to be the MLB anyway? He was Fletch's backup for the past few years and is extremely athletic. He's the perfect fit for the Cover 2. Sure, you could still take Willis and move Crowell to the outside. But then Willis becomes more of a luxury pick. Again, it comes down to the overall value of the players. And of course, you may well be right and that's exactly how OBD sees it. But I would be shocked if Peterson is there (well ... I will be shocked if he slips to 12 at all, frankly I don't think he will) and the Bills take Willis over him. Shocked.

See, that's the whole issue. There are no RBs in the draft who are close to Peterson's talent level. Lynch is the closest, and even he isn't in the same class. However, there are multiple LBs in the first round (and some in the second) who are all pretty close. Willis, Timmons and Polz are all pretty equal. Willis might be the "star" but he's not that far ahead of the other two. In later rounds you have another crop. The second tier RBs in this draft are all about the same. Irons, Bush etc. etc. are all fairly equal, you're right. If the Bills don't go RB in round 1, then it doesn't really matter if they go RB in round 2 or 3 since those backs are all the same. However, if Peterson is there, you take him. On the flip side, if Peterson is gone and two of those LBs are gone as well, then you take the LB.

Here's the rub with this scenario: It's all about value. There are more available LBs in this draft than marquee RBs. Arguably there is only one marquee RB (Peterson) in the draft yet there are several possible marquee LBs (Willis, Timmons, Polz). If Peterson is sitting there at 12 along with the three LBs, then you have to take Peterson from a value standpoint alone. Both LB and RB are equal needs on this team right now, so if you get lucky and the only marquee RB falls in your lap, you take him. The logic being there's a chance you can still land one of the three remaining LBs later in the draft (either by trading up or one of them falling). Now, personally Peterson scares the hell out of me so I would never want to see the Bills trade up to get him. But if he's there at 12, regardless of which LBs are left, they have to take him.

All good points. This of course is all a hypothesis on my part, but based on everything we saw at the end of the season, and now with the TKO rumors, it seems to be a logical stepping stone. It may not be the staff's "A" plan, but it appears to be their backup plan if things in the draft don't go the way they want it. Though, of course, if Willis or Polz are there when the Bills are on the clock in the first two rounds and they pass on them -- well, then we'll know that No. 27 might be up for a number change.

I think they do know something. Coy played the WLB for a bunch of snaps the last 3 or 4 weeks of the season and played fairly well. Well enough that Dick praised him in several PC after the games. At the time, you could argue they were had no other options with Crowell, Stammer and TKO being banged up. But looking back at it now when you factor in how quickly they moved to resign Coy and how little interest the club had in any FA solutions at LB, it's very reasonable to assume they have had this plan in place since last year. TKO being pushed out the door only furthers this logic. You can't gamble that Willis is going to be there at 12, or even that Polz will be there -- so you can't push TKO out the door unless his replacement is already on the roster. There needs to be a saftey net in case the draft prize isn't there. Who else could that saftey net be? Again, I'm not saying Coy is going to be the answer, I'm just saying it's possible that the staff thinks he is their answer and will thus not go LB in round 1 or 2.

With TKO's days in Buffalo numbered, I've read a ton of posts about addressing the hole through the draft with either Willis, Polz, Black etc etc. But is it possible the Bills already have their OLB of choice on the roster in the form of TSW whipping boy, Coy Wire? During the final stretch last year he lined up quite a bit at OLB and played to rave reviews from the staff. Personally, this option would terrify me -- but I wouldn't put it past Dick or Marv since they moved quickly to resign Coy to a multi year deal. Perhaps the plan is to go in with Ellison, Crowell and Wire as the LBs and add a mid round pick to the mix? Why else would the staff be so willing to get rid of not only Fletch but TKO when there are no guarantees that Willis will be there at 12 or that Polz will be there in round 2? You can argue it's a strictly finacial move on the Bills' part, but why would the team willingly put another hole in their lineup unless they had a plan already in place? Just food for thought ...

I think there are only three (non kicking) positions that would shock me if the Bills addressed with the #12 pick: QB, S or DE. With the money tied up by Schobel, Kelsey, Denney and Hargrove, I can't see there being any logic in taking a DE at 12. None. Other than that, I think everything else is fair game. I wouldn't be shocked if they took a WR, RB, TE, OL, DT, LB, CB, FB. I'm not saying I would like all those picks, but I'm always of the position that with the first pick you always take the best player available regardless of need.

Yes.

So then trading Spikes guarantees that the Bills draft Willis ... or Okoye ... or Hall ... or ... wait a second

I am sorry I lashed out at you Dean. It's just a touchy subject as so many americans continue to look down upon a great creature/beast/boy just because he has odd ears, radar and poor eye sight. It's just a shame.

Hey! There is absolutely no reason to involve Bat Boy in these discussions! The man/thing/boy is a national hero! Back in 2001 he volunteered to use his "bat" abilities to hunt down bin Laden! He spent weeks searching Afgahani caves without the "official" support of the US Gov't! Now that's American hero/Jack Bauer type stuff! Hasn't Bat Boy earned our respect? So what if he wants to ride the subway for free. He's on the roof, not sitting next to you. Geesh ... it's a shame how we treat our veterans.

And if they're both gone ... which looks to be a very real possibility?

That and the organization is very high on Wali Lundy's potential. Green was brought in to groom Lundy apparently. I don't see them drafting AP when, as you stated, they have much more pressing needs on the line.

Great post. The offense needs more weapons. And I've been clanging the "WR/TE spots are huge holes" for a couple months now. Olsen certainly would fill a huge area of need, but still I would be upset if the Bills took him at 12 or if they moved picks to aquire him. Certainly a solid No 2. WR or a gamebreaking TE is needed, but with Willis gone, RB has jumped to the top offensive "need". As you said, the Bills need a threat in the backfield to force opposing defenses to pay attention. Is there going to be a back there at 12 to provide this? Perhaps. But the only way I don't see the Bills going RB with their first pick is if one of the defensive studs at LB or DT falls into their lap. If they traded up to grab Olsen in the second round, that would mean giving up picks, something I'm not usually a fan of unless it's for an extraordinary talent. Olsen is good -- but I'm not sure he is extraordinary enough to warrent a move back into the first round.

This is the best advice for anyone. Seriously ... I wish more people followed it. LSI is an easy target because he's young and so often a chicken little / flip-flopper. I'm hoping for him to turn a corner. Though his "I'm never going to drink" thread is a bit alarming.

And he's a bad apple ... why? Everyone is assuming he is based on one report where no charges were filed. I used to think people were innocent till proven guilty. Guess not on TSW.

If the scenario did play out, with Peterson gone but Willis, Okoye, Lynch and Hall all on the board I would expect the Bills to try to move back 2 or 3 spaces, pick up an extra 3rd and take whoever of those are still left. I don't think Ginn would be on the Bills' radar, but a WR is a huge area of need. Had Willis not been traded I would say they might take a flyer on a first round WR. But now with holes at RB, CB and LB I think WR gets pushed to round 2 or 3. I also don't see the Bills taking a first round DT unless Okoye is still there. If he's gone (and I think he will be), then the Bills won't address the DL in the first 2 rounds. It'll be DB/RB in round 1.

I'm suffering from jet lag. Forgive me And I don't disagree with the line being a problem either. There have been multiple problems. However, after the shuffle this season, the OL held up nicely. But the offense still stalled in the redzone due to a lack of a TE or solid No. 2 recEiver.

A fair point. The problem with the TE position is there are no good FA out there and not a whole hell of a lot of prospects in the draft that would upgrade the position. Which, for me, puts an even greater need for finding a tall, possession WR to line up opposite Evans. JP needs a target that can take up the middle of the field and remove some safty pressure from Lee. I would not be surprised to see the Bills take a WR on day one. It's a need. Had Willis not been traded, I would have been willing to bet the position would have been addressed within the first two rounds. Now, I'm not so sure.