JohnNord

I was skeptical of Erik Turner but he does a bang up job with these film reviews and he definitely knows his *****. Now Bills players are actually taking notice. Looking forward to watching this

Ben Baldwin is the creator of these charts. I’m sure you can find how he calculates these numbers. I definitely wouldn’t call them “junk science” considering how all teams have embraced analytics. Nearly every team uses or at least refers to these metrics for 2 point conversions. With that being said, much like any probability, it’s not an exact predictor. So if your FG kicker is 80% from 40-50 yards away, it’s a good indicator of success but not a predictive one. That’s what this chart reveals, when teams should go it on for 4th down when the numbers are in their favor.

What would you consider to be a defensive implosion though? In losses against Miami and NYJ they held both teams to 21 and 20 points. Last week, they allowed 26 point to Minnesota. The defense also had Minnesota right where they wanted them in 4th and long when one of the best players in the NFL made a fluke catch against a replacement level backup. And the defense put the Bills on a position to win. Don’t forget: 2019: McDermott can’t beat Belichick 2020: McDermott can’t beat Belichick when it matters 2021: Belichick is in McDermott’s head I believe it’s all probably based on similar situations in the past. That’s only if you assume everything unfolds the exact same way, which it likely wouldn’t. Keep in mind, even with everything that happened all the Bills had to do was to snap the ball twice at the goal one and they win.

That’s what I was thinking as well. I remember reading that probability wise that 4th down was a coin flip. Being so close to the endzone is probably what tipped the scales for going for the kill shot. Like I said, I’m pretty sure they didn’t anticipate that INT and the return I definitely hated that sequence. As far as why they pass so much it’s tough to tell. There are a lot of RPO’s and Josh has the freedom to change calls at the line, so we don’t know exactly what the original play call was. Also the OL has been pretty terrible in run blocking this season. I’m previous games, they were stonewalled pretty badly near the endzone. Running the ball with this offense doesn’t really guarantee anything, though they seemed to run better on Sunday

Not at all true - who do you think makes the call? It’s not the analytics dept He has the same 4th down data that other coaches do. Some coaches simply refuse use the info for decisions. Others consider it but default to arbitrary measures like “feel” or momentum. I give him credit for embracing the philosophy. On Sunday, I didn’t mind the call. I probably would’ve kicked the FG but that only puts the team up for 2 scores and still leaves the door open for Minnesota to creep back. A TD in that situation puts the game out of reach with a 3 score lead. Plus, even if the Bills fail on 4th, Minnesota has the ball on the 7 and still have to drive all the way downfield. The problem was the execution - Josh throws and INT which gets returned to the 40 giving Minnesota a short field.

Despite some of the tried narratives and misplaced anger from Sunday, when it comes down to 4th down decisions Sean McDermott is far and away the best in league. It doesn’t always work out, and many times the result clouds the judgement on whether it was the “right” decision. Still it’s good to know we have a coach that follows the math and puts the team in the best position to win.

I’d argue that Les Snead messed up fan perceptions…maybe some owners as well. After 2 seasons of failing, his “F them picks” strategy actually worked but IMO it was about getting the breaks they needed rather than being the best team in 2021.

A lot of Bills fans are living in a fantasy world where they can turn into a parody of George Steinbrenner and issue all kinds of crazy championship edicts to coaches and players. I read a laughable comment here other day comparing McDermott to Doug Collins with the Chicago Bulls LOL Look at Terry Pegula’s history with finding coaches in the NFL and NHL. It’s horrendous. McDermott is the only hire that’s actually succeeded. He is going to wait until things its painfully obvious he has to make that choice. Not winning the SB Is one of those choices. Also, take a look at another team in MLB who fans issued a “championship of bust” edict to. - the NY Yankees. Fans called for Aaron Boone to be fired after they failed to win a championship yet again. What happened? He’s still the coach. Why? Because as cliche as it sounds “it’s hard to win championships” and you don’t want to mess with success. This is not ever a perfect analogy either b/c with the NFL’s single elimination post season, you basically have a 1-in-8 chance of winning your conference and then a 50/50 chance at winning a SB. Quite often, the best team in the NFL does not win the SB as they would in other sports where you play a “best of 3” or “best of 4.”

This thread has been debunked…. The issue isn’t the decision as much as it is the result. McDermott is one of the best at 4th down decisions:

Don’t fumble and throw interceptions in the red zone?

#1 is absolutely true. He had what looked like a bathrobe on. McDermott said he looked like Sherlock Holmes.

LOL replace one OC that the Bills fans base wants to be fired, with the OC that the Chiefs fans base wants to be fired

Comments like this show a real lack of understanding of both A. The NFL and B. the currently situation at One Bills Drive. First, off McDermott probably has as much stroke as Beane at OBD, if not more. McDermott and Beane both report to Terry Pegula. McDermott was the one who brought Beane in Buffalo. It’s not like firing him would be his call alone, so the premise is completely flawed from the start. Second, Brandon Beane believes in McDermott as a HC. You can use whatever analogy you want, but he’s just as high on McDermott as the rest of the organization. Besides this, he’s a friend. So who can fire him? You guess it…old TP. I’m sure he’s very anxious to start another HC search after his success with the Bills and Sabres in the past. Yes, they will fire the coach with the 2nd highest winning percentage in team history that completely transformed the Bills organization on-the-field and off-the-field. Besides this, perceptions of McDermott in the NFL are much higher than within the Bills fan base. You might as well ask Santa Claus for Giselle gift wrapped under the Christmas, because there’s about as a high of a chance as McDermott getting “fired” by someone who he doesn’t report to.

Just like they couldn’t beat New England in 2021? Let’s let things play out

They’ve bounced back after slumps in both in 2020 and 2021.

Nice post man. The problem is a lot of us Bills fans immediately think the worst when adversity strikes. I remember last season when the Bills were 7-6 after a bad TB loss. Tim Graham did a Twitter poll and out thousands, something like 70% of respondents thought they would miss the playoffs. Some Bills fans also think in absolutes. ie Since the Bills didn’t beat NYJ and Miami the first time, they can’t beat them again Still 6-3 with a chance to finish strong. You have to think Josh isn’t going to have that many more games with multiple INT’s right?

LOL I did mean paid, but it’s funnier with the error

I’ll bet against those odds any day . They were 13 seconds away for doing it one year ago

That’s basically a “no” from you then. I can’t possibly see a scenario where he willingly takes less money to stay in Buffalo versus signing his first big post-rookie contract Before this season Oliver and Williams both had similar careers. It took Williams nearly 4 seasons to start showing high end ability. Time is running out for Oliver

Of course no one has to! That’s what this a fun question. FYI your answer is “no.” Oliver is scheduled to make over $10M on year 5. There’s no way he’s signing for less unless he has some kind of catastrophic injury and he has to sign a prove it deal

And next season… they picked up the 5th year option

Before this season you could argue that Quinnen Williams had a similar career to Oliver. But he’s taken a big step forward this season. This is the type of step that Oliver has yet to take This is what makes the contract extension conversation such an interesting topic.

Ironically Williams and Simmons were also DT’s from the 2019 draft class. Oliver has not had the impact either of his draft mates have Right…but if you had to make the call today what would you do? I’d probably pass

Agreed… Ike isn’t going to step in starting guard and change the OL. But he could prove to be an upgrade over the depth they could have on the interior OL, especially as he gets better acclimated from the injury.

Ed Oliver is a good defensive tackle. But I’m not sure he’s a great DT. Because of athleticism and potential, every year he is pegged as a player set to have a “breakout season” especially in 2022 with the additions to the DL. But like the past year, his “breakout” seasons, it just hasn’t happened in 2022. The fact that he missed 4 games to injury didn’t help. But still at the half way point he has 0 sacks, 1 TFL, and 1 knocked down pass. A fairly pedestrian impact so far. After a strong rookie season, this seems to be the case for Oliver over the past few years. He has a handful flashes but for the most part, he’s a good, to sometimes average DT in the Bills defense. A far cry from the game-wrecker that Oliver was projected to be as a Top 10 pick in 2019 and throughout the course of his career. This leads me to the question of whether the Bills should re-sign him. He is under contract for one more season in 2023, but if you had to make the decision today would you re-sign him? To anyone thinking that he’ll take a “home town discount” guess again. This is his first chance for a big-money contract. Based on his pedigree, athleticism, and some of the flashes he’s show on tape there’s little doubt he will get laid - but will it be from Buffalo? Given the big contracts that will kick in over the next few seasons, I don’t think there’s any way that Buffalo should re-sign Oliver to a new contract if the choice had to be made today. What do you think?