JohnNord

All that this list shows is that McDermott isn’t as conservative on 4th down according to the analytics, as it would appear. It does not prove that he’s perfect or that he always makes the right decisions. Just that in terms of game decisions he usually follows the data

I think that’s fair but there’s a flip side to a Brandon Staley as well. I saw a LAC game earlier this year again Baltimore. LAC fell behind and Staley went for it on fourth down a few times before the half and then once in third. These were aggressive moves. They didn’t convert them and ended up getting blown out. Game was over in the 3rd. I think McDermott could take a few more chances. I didn’t like the punts - but some of the criticism he takes about being overly conservative is overblown.

Thats why the bitching about firing McDermott is beyond me. You can complain all you want about a coach but firing someone the after he took the team the AFCECG is a joke. I get the impression that some in the media don’t care for him and heavily criticize him. Above all else, McDermott has like 4 years left on his deal. Even if the Bills end up at 7-10 and 6-11 in 2022 he’s still probably keep his job.

Not true, he usually does which is why he’s ranked so highly on the list. I didn’t like the punts in the 4th quarter but one was a coin flip and the other actually favored for punting. Yeah I hear you…. I think the bigger issue is the roster and player development. People have said that the Bills don’t make in-game adjustments when they have. The adjustments were big failures. To that extent though, I think you have to look Brandon Beane and his staff as well

Many people have chastised Sean McDermott’s “conservative” decisions with the Bills. It turns out that he’s one of the best at following what the analytics suggest. EDJ sports and analytics company created a model to analyze every coaching decisions. The CCI stat specifically evaluated coaches on 4th down decisions. McDermott ranks 5th on this list among coaches overall. 14th in CCI and 4th in EPI. Like Greg says below, he’s far from perfect, but he’s also not the Richard Jauron or Doug Marrone that some make him out to be.

I can’t really remember the games leading up or the Super Bowl but NYG really benefitted from a great matchup. They were on of the few teams that could pressure New England without blitzing - especially up the middle. It completely threw off Brady.

Funny that you bring the 2007 NYG team up. I thought about them the other day as well. I don’t subscribe to moral victories by any means but in Week 17 there was a ton of attention on the game against 16-0 New England who were absolutely rolling teams. Everyone expected them to roll over but they played New England tough and have them the toughest fight they had in weeks. Many players said this was a confidence building moment even in a losing effort. I’m hoping this is the case with Buffalo in Tampa the other night. I could see it but aI could also see the Bills blowing a game or two to finish 8-9. So much variance with this team - you never know what you will get

He was vaccinated as well. He is a automatic and hopes to play Sunday. Long shot probably

I don’t share the shame view on Morse. He was perhaps the top center in free agency when the Bills signed him. Did they overpay for him? Probably, but that’s what happens in FA. Beane wanted to make sure Josh could learn with a solid veteran center and that what Morse has been. Dawkins struggled early this season and has played much better over the past 2 weeks. Ford and Feliciano were pretty big busts

Like I said, he’s very inconsistent. Doesn’t make the big play when you need him to. Average MLB and not worth a big second contract

What play are you referring to? Last year versus San Fran?

Common knowledge that when you MLB comes in clean on 3rd with a shot to stop the RB for a loss, he can’t whiff. This was a bad play. Edmunds is very inconsistent Pretty sure that Edmunds deserves his fair of blame for the run defense this year that has given up huge runs and struggled with physical teams. Edmunds is the QB of that defense. He just not physical enough. Also has poor instincts

The other problem is that for as many throws that Josh can make, he’s never really excelled at the touch passes that lead the RB’s out of the backfield. He doesn’t have the pinpoint accuracy that QB’s who make a living with those type of passes have. I noticed yesterday that a few short passes near the LOS were slightly off target, forcing the back/receivers to come back for the ball. It seems small but that extra second can be the difference between 2 yard gain and a 6/7 yard gain. I think the second half was what McDermott means by balance. It was mostly passing but a few QB runs and RB’s runs off tackle opened things up for the passing game. The idea is not to run for balance just to do it. It’s to make it easier on their passing game Yes to an extent…at the same time a raw 3rd round rookie draft pick has been the best option to start at RT.

Good post. The answers are never as simple as they appear. That’s what drives me crazy about some of the ways that fans react. Suggesting that firing McDermott or Frazier or Daboll is the solution is insane

That’s a bit dramatic and extreme though there is some truth to what you said. Some of the decisions yesterday were not good

They had a decent running game in the playoffs last year with Fournette and Jones and a better OL. Not the same comparison

Mike Sando of The Athletic wrote a long piece on yesterday’s games including the Bills. He said that throwing as much as the Bills do is not sustainable. As much as people want to grill McDermott about “balance,” there’s actually good reason establishing a running game including the coverage that Buffalo has gotten this season. Sadly, the problem is with the talent at OL and RB and you can’t fix this in Week 14 of the season. But passing frequently because a team cannot run with any success is a losing proposition over time. Passing too frequently puts stress on quarterbacks and linemen. Risks increase when defenses know where they can find the quarterback play after play. Returns become diminishing. “The only reason why you would not hand the ball off to a running back (for a full half) is if you just do not trust them to make the plays,” an exec from another team said. “As long as you are are a threat to run or pass, you are in good shape. That is where Buffalo is really hurting themselves with their team construction and maybe with their play calling when it is that extreme.” IMO the offensive line this season was a huge oversight. And arguably a big reason why the Bills have lost almost every game this season. Whether it’s McDermott, Beane, or Daboll, there were serious flaws in the offense this team put on the field https://theathletic.com/3010688/2021/12/13/whats-different-about-cowboys-what-bills-could-change-and-real-reason-packers-own-bears-mike-sandos-pick-six/?source=user_shared_article

Ok cool… this has now made the rounds of Twitter. Tough play, yes but again it’s why I don’t think as good as some hype him up to be

They seem to love him…unfortunately I don’t. With Allen’s contract the cap is going to be tight. I can’t see how they give him a huge deal The Bills can draft a rookie this year. Edmunds has a 5th year.

Maybe that play wasn’t his fault but the lengths people will go to try to show that Edmunds is slightly above average is insane. He is what he is. An average MLB who is a part of a defense that is consistently outmuscled. What’s there to argue?

Theres a pretty simple explanation for this - the Bills can’t run block. That accounts for the redzone struggles. Teams can flood the endzone, play a weak front, and spy on Allen because the threat of a run doesn’t really exist. Like all of the struggles on offense, it goes back to an offensive line that isn’t physical. Yes but he needs to be pinpoint accurate which isn’t his game. develop a running game and the % will get better

At this point, he’s not getting a contract unless he wants to take a hometown discount which he won’t and shouldn’t do. Unless something drastic happens over the next 4 games, I am certain the Bills will treat Edmunds like Shaq Lawson. Make him prove it on a 5th year deal.

I’ll say slightly over. It sounds like they want to attack the edges of the defense. One good run to the outside could be close to half of that total

He doesn’t really have any other choice. They aren’t going to be able to run the ball against this defense so the only option is to pass

He’s not coming cheap. Given the state of linemen in the NFL, my guess is that Norwell is going to get a huge deal. I’m not sure if the Bills will take a swing like that at him, but wouldn’t mind if they didn’t