JohnNord

He made every catch in this game that he never could make with Buffalo. I’ll always believe that the famous drop versus Carolina his rookie year destroyed his confidence. He had a reputation as being a WR that could catch everything - with the Bills he was famous for drops

I’ve been thinking about Shakir and also can’t figure out why he doesn’t get any targets. I doubt that he’s getting open and Josh is missing him. There was a video on Cover 1 where Erik Turner broke down some of Dorsey’s route designs which gave receivers little spacing and all but took them out of making a play. I am pretty sure the lack of looks is a Dorsey issue…but I can say for sure

No it doesn’t usually happen

The flawed logic that a lot of Bills fans is thinking coaches/players who have demonstrated a level of success are easily replaced.

Right it seems to me that this injury is similar to Zach Wilson in the preseason. It looked like an ACL, it was reported the team was “cautiously optimistic” be avoided major injury and tests confirmed it. But we’ll see

I thought his observation about Allen’s elbow causing him issues was really interesting

They usually know immediately if it’s an ACL year. If it’s a sprained MCL, I would say 2-6 weeks. It sucks but could be worse

How is not utilizing Hines on McDermott? I feel that offensive personnel/utilization should be on the OC There’s no excuse why he can’t figure out how to use all 3 better

The reason is, Allen has gone from an MVP front runner to an average looking QB that turns the ball over at critical times. There’s a few factors for this: 1. I think the elbow is bothering him more than he lets on. 2. I think Dorsey is really struggling with play calling and can’t seem to get the most out of his personnel grouping. I just can’t figure out why Dorsey isn’t able to scheme players open the way other OC’s are. 3. The OL has been a disappointment and only gets worse with Dawkins/Morse injured

I would agree with your larger point of not writing off a player in his 3rd year completely BUT… my concern is his low catch radius and the fact that a number of those drops came in really big, potentially game-changing, moments. His endzone drop against Miami could’ve been the difference in the game, as was his drop of the Hail Mary thrown by Josh against NYJ. Im not writing him off year, but I think he has to show that he really can be a competent WR2. He has some time left this season

This is such an odd decision… if you were going to bench your young QB for struggling in the midst of a playoff run, wouldn’t you replace with your capable backup QB (Flacco) rather than with a QB with less experience (White) Flacco seems to be such a better choice

The Bills are doomed

This is the problem. If Dane gets his head around, some of those catches are incomplete

The Bills don’t care about yards allowed - they care about points allowed. You can hear defensive backs coach Bobby Babbitch literally say in one of the games covered by NFL films. If you look at points allowed: 20 versus NYJ - (which included a TD given up on a shortened field thanks to an Allen INT) 23 versus Minnesota in regulation- before the fumble TD the defense limited Minnesota to 23 points and had the game won. 23 versus Cleveland - largely boosted by a garbage time time TD. What made the game today worse was the fact that our defensive backs couldn’t not make a play on the football. Dane Jackson was the biggest culprit. He’d had decent coverage but just never got his head around. It actually happened to Taron Johnson a few times as well

Isaiah McKenzie

That’s fair… but that’s more of a conversation about Dorsey’s coaching than McDermott

It makes perfect sense if you want to blame McDermott for everything

This would have been huge 7 years ago

I was skeptical of Erik Turner but he does a bang up job with these film reviews and he definitely knows his *****. Now Bills players are actually taking notice. Looking forward to watching this

Ben Baldwin is the creator of these charts. I’m sure you can find how he calculates these numbers. I definitely wouldn’t call them “junk science” considering how all teams have embraced analytics. Nearly every team uses or at least refers to these metrics for 2 point conversions. With that being said, much like any probability, it’s not an exact predictor. So if your FG kicker is 80% from 40-50 yards away, it’s a good indicator of success but not a predictive one. That’s what this chart reveals, when teams should go it on for 4th down when the numbers are in their favor.

What would you consider to be a defensive implosion though? In losses against Miami and NYJ they held both teams to 21 and 20 points. Last week, they allowed 26 point to Minnesota. The defense also had Minnesota right where they wanted them in 4th and long when one of the best players in the NFL made a fluke catch against a replacement level backup. And the defense put the Bills on a position to win. Don’t forget: 2019: McDermott can’t beat Belichick 2020: McDermott can’t beat Belichick when it matters 2021: Belichick is in McDermott’s head I believe it’s all probably based on similar situations in the past. That’s only if you assume everything unfolds the exact same way, which it likely wouldn’t. Keep in mind, even with everything that happened all the Bills had to do was to snap the ball twice at the goal one and they win.

That’s what I was thinking as well. I remember reading that probability wise that 4th down was a coin flip. Being so close to the endzone is probably what tipped the scales for going for the kill shot. Like I said, I’m pretty sure they didn’t anticipate that INT and the return I definitely hated that sequence. As far as why they pass so much it’s tough to tell. There are a lot of RPO’s and Josh has the freedom to change calls at the line, so we don’t know exactly what the original play call was. Also the OL has been pretty terrible in run blocking this season. I’m previous games, they were stonewalled pretty badly near the endzone. Running the ball with this offense doesn’t really guarantee anything, though they seemed to run better on Sunday

Not at all true - who do you think makes the call? It’s not the analytics dept He has the same 4th down data that other coaches do. Some coaches simply refuse use the info for decisions. Others consider it but default to arbitrary measures like “feel” or momentum. I give him credit for embracing the philosophy. On Sunday, I didn’t mind the call. I probably would’ve kicked the FG but that only puts the team up for 2 scores and still leaves the door open for Minnesota to creep back. A TD in that situation puts the game out of reach with a 3 score lead. Plus, even if the Bills fail on 4th, Minnesota has the ball on the 7 and still have to drive all the way downfield. The problem was the execution - Josh throws and INT which gets returned to the 40 giving Minnesota a short field.

Despite some of the tried narratives and misplaced anger from Sunday, when it comes down to 4th down decisions Sean McDermott is far and away the best in league. It doesn’t always work out, and many times the result clouds the judgement on whether it was the “right” decision. Still it’s good to know we have a coach that follows the math and puts the team in the best position to win.

I’d argue that Les Snead messed up fan perceptions…maybe some owners as well. After 2 seasons of failing, his “F them picks” strategy actually worked but IMO it was about getting the breaks they needed rather than being the best team in 2021.