Ecmic82

The coaches film gives a good view of the play. Looked more than slightly high. The guy couldn't get two hands on it. Finger tips was all.

Yeah, and intuitively its easy to reason why a dropped pass has a much larger negative impact on a drive than an average completion has a positive impact. The EP for completions are much more highly dependent on other variables throughout the drive, while a drop is more closely isolated to a particular set of downs, effectively slotting within a drive a "must get 10 yards on two downs" scenario. That's a pretty big negative impact.

I don’t know, the word “dangerous” to me doesn’t really mean “best”. Like, a fighter is “dangerous” not because he’s the best, but because he’s got certain ability that can, if the stars align, instantly change the course of a fight against anyone, any time, anywhere. To me, “dangerous” abilities for a defense are things like getting sacks and forcing turnovers. Things that can change the course of a game instantly. The Bills don’t do either at a super elite level. I think the Bills are better described as a “methodical” defense. they play a more slow-burn, suffocating style in my opinion. I’d call the Steelers more “dangerous”.

Also, the second team this century to (effectively) record a +4 turnover margin and have their defense score at least 8 points and STILL lose the game (game 1 vs Bills). And that's looked at as encouraging ?. (Unfortunately, the first team to do that this century was a Bills team)

I guess I’m looking at it from mostly a rookie/organizational continuity standpoint, and I’ve a lot of faith in Belichick and his in-game awareness to take advantage of Miami’s probable early-season weak spots, and to minimize the impact of his team’s weaknesses. every team will have aspects of their game that aren’t up to speed week 1. I just think Miami will have more than the average team, and New England will have fewer - and do a better job masking - theirs than Miami. I have no idea what that’s worth in points, though.

The Dolphins seem like a team that could really, really use the benefit of a full off/pre-season to get up to speed. The Patriots are probably on the opposite end of that spectrum. Whatever that’s worth... If the game were even just a few weeks later I bet the line would be a lot different.

Bills were -3 in turnovers that game, but if I remember correctly the Jets “fumbled” on a wide receiver lateral on the last play of the game deep in their own half of the field, so practically Buffalo played a -4 turnover game. There were 12 games last year with a turnover differential of 4 or more, and the team in the negative lost all 12 of those games. Average margin of victory was over 19 points. it funny Jets fans try to find the silver lining in that game, when the fact is they were unable to do what literally every other team (even Jacksonville!) that was spotted four turnovers was able to do: handily beat their opponent. (and the Jets defense scored 8 points! Has a team ever lost with a +4 turnover margin and 8 defensive points scored???)

Yeah. The belief that SOS projections are substantively meaningless MUST also be logically paired with the belief that it is impossible to project - beyond random chance - any single team’s performance (since SOS is just a composite of 10 individual team performances). There’s a contradiction in “We have no idea how good the Bills opponents will be this year, but this is how good, give or take, I think the Bills will be this year, and here’s my evidence why...”.

I don’t think their defense is good enough. When they finally stopped benefitting from record-shattering turnover variance last year, the team struggled to play .500. With downgraded defensive personnel, I’ll go out on a limb and say they WON’T be pushing a turnover created per quarter for half the season. Having “just” a top 6 or so defense isn’t going to drag this team to respectability.

I’m not going to argue he isn’t a great GM. He’s done well in selecting for Bill-the-coach’s system. He has intimate knowledge of what the best coach in league history wants, and he provides. Could he find such successful synergy with any coach that wasn’t himself? For now that’s unknowable, and I’m not sure it matters much, practically. But believing he *isnt* a great GM and acknowledging he built a stacked roster or two aren’t in and of themselves either/or propositions. as for Vegas, I believe there is a ton of flawed regressive analysis when it comes to the Patriots. And you do see it on this board, and it does factor into the wacky AFCE futures betting. Vegas will definitely even the money on such a long-term bet. They’ll win similarly no matter which team eventually wins the division. What the Vegas line tells *me* is there’s a lot of scared money sitting this one out. If bettors (and I’m not one) REALLY think the Bills will win the division, then the Bills are fantastic value, because ALOT of would-be Bills money will be on the sidelines, and the line will continue to skew in Buffalo’s favor. Becuz “The Patriots”.

Can Bill be regarded as merely a “good GM” while simultaneously acknowledging that he’s constructed at least one stacked roster over the past twenty years?

6 points per game, 96 points extra for the season. The Bills recorded one touchdown outside of their offense last year. Zero defensive scores. One special teams touchdown. Well below league average in non-offensive TDs, which is pretty surprising but for the fact that randomness probably plays a big role in these specific stats. if the Bills could get closer to league average in these areas next year, 11ish extra offensive TDs would get you that extra 6 ppg. playcalling will be important too; with more weapons/confidence in the offense, perhaps the Bills won’t revert to their “play-not-to-lose” mentality that often snuck up on them when leading at halftime.