Ecmic82

Lol I’m not a dancing monkey, was just adding context to a post specifically about field goals. I’ve usually found that if I’m gonna ask something of someone else, I should first ask myself if I’m capable of doing it instead.

So he’s 19-23 outdoors, if I’m correct. 7-8 from 50+. Nailed a 66 yarder in Cleveland, but a false start took it away. Has had two kicks blocked. I know a blocked kick is a blocked kick, but I don’t think they’re all created equal. I don’t blame Denver’s kicker for the block against Kansas City, and Washington’s block on Aubrey was the exact same overload strategy, and Dallas’ blocking was even more egregious than Denver’s. The guy pretty much took it off Aubrey’s foot. the Steelers block was pretty much the Steelers being the Steelers. Defender got up about 10 feet and his hand happened to be in the right place, which is what the Steelers do 🤷‍♂️. Wasn’t an “indoor/outdoor” situation.

Yeah, I get it. I predicated my post with the acknowledgment that I probably value elite-elite kickers more than most people do. Maybe it’s a blind spot for me. For me, the piece of mind of going into the playoffs with a kicker like Aubrey is worth more than the value-add of a late 4th round pick, particularly when factoring in timelines. As an example, Davis has been a great surprise for me this year, but I’d rather pair Allen with possibly the best kicker in the NFL(maybe yet to become the best in history?) for the rest of his playoff career than probably anything else that could be, on average, had in the 4th round, but that’s just my value judgment, and could be short-sighted 🤷‍♂️.

I didn’t mean to imply he’s automatic from that range, which is why I tried to be careful with my words. Small sample, but he is 6 for 6 on field goals of 57+ (and 3 for 3 on field goals 60+, with a 64 yard make negated last night, and a 66 yarder called back against the Browns). I am not referring to that particular Baltimore drive, and I’m not referring to that Kansas City drive. of course the negative EPA from potential misses should, in a perfect analysis, be factored, but the negative EPA from actual misses should then also be factored, and Aubrey actually misses far less than most other kickers. And, I know it’s funny to be referencing all the 60 yarders. I get it, but in THIS NFL, where teams are more incline to try 55+ yarders than ever before, the line of demarcation between kicking and punting has become those 58, 59, and 60+ yarders. That’s just the reality of it.

There are a few instances where the Bills might have kicked a field goal with Aubrey instead of what they actually did (usually punt). A 64 yarder vs Baltimore, a 62 and 66 yarder vs Houston, a 64 yarder vs Kansas City. Maybe they try the 51 yarder vs Kansas City to go up 16-7 instead of going for it on 4th and 3? I’m not mad at the decision, but Aubrey might change the math on that one. These numbers look a little crazy, But Aubrey’s been close to automatic at these distances (he nailed a 64 yarder that had at least 3 or 4 extra yards in it last night, but it was negated by a defensive penalty). Mostly, I’d want a kicker like Aubrey for the playoffs, where the impact of elite kickers is often magnified due to relatively evenly matched teams.

I’d definitely give up a 4th, probably even a 3rd, but I probably value the elite-elite kickers more than the average fan. He’s probably worth 1-2 points more per game than a league-average kicker, which is a better return than I think could reasonably expected from a late 4th round pick. I also think he could’ve made a meaningful impact in the playoffs last year.

Yeah with catches like this there’s going to usually be some degree of parsing. But the player in the above photo does not have possession of that football. His left hand isn’t touching the ball, and if his left hand doesn’t come over to quickly resecure it, the ball is going to be on the ground within the next second, because his right hand no longer has possession. If the left nor the right hand have possession (another way to put it is “control”) of the football, the player does not have possession of the football. the GIF that this screenshot was taken of (another poster posted it earlier in the thread) further illuminates this. it’s a close call, but by the rulebook (and, that’s the important metric, not fan opinion) I think the refs called it right.

Turning up field is a football move, but only after the second foot comes down. Most of the turn occurred before the second foot came down, so most of the turn cannot, by the rulebook, be considered the “football move” for that play. the rulebook outlines three phases of a catch: (1) possession of the ball, (2) two feet or one other body part must touch the ground, and (3) an act common to the game (a football move). And they must occur in that specific order. Everything Coleman did before his second foot came down should be ignored when looking at the third phase of a catch.

An acceptable act, according to the rulebook, is simply possessing the ball long enough to theoretically make a football move, whether the player actually makes a football move or not isn’t the determinative factor. So, going out of bounds on a toe drag, that’d look like maintained possession of the ball for a time beyond the moment the player touches the sideline. Surviving the ground while falling out of bounds would fall under this category as well.

The rulebook states, “after (a) [player secures the ball] and (b) [player touches the ground with both feet] have been fulfilled, [player] performs any act common to the game”

Another thing to consider is that the “football move” cannot be considered to have begun until after the second foot is down. He’s already at least halfway through his turn by the time his second foot comes down. Therefore, most of that turn is ineligible to even be considered as a football move that’s part of the catch. He loses control of the ball fractions of a second after his second foot comes down. In my opinion, barely enough time to begin, let alone complete, a football move. I think it was a good call. I would’ve been pissed if a Bills’ opponent pulled off that play and it was ruled a touchdown.

The top two players in MVP betting odds right now are Lamar (+225) and Mahomes (+475), so if you’re inclined to think that voters would be hesitant to give Lamar a third MVP (IMO a real consideration) and that Mahomes WON’T be MVP (he will not) this week is probably the perfect time to place MVP bets on a portion of the rest of the field.

I think there’s five scenarios if the Bills win. Losses by either… Pitt and Cin Pitt and Jax Jax and Cin Pitt and Hou and Indy Cin and Hou and Indy

No, the Broncos are lurking at 7-7 (with the head to head win) and a very easy closing schedule. IMO they’re the biggest threat right now to keeping a 10-7 Bills team out of the playoffs.

it’s convoluted but a Browns win gets the Bills a lot closer to the playoffs as a 10-7 team than would a Texans win. You basically want at least 4 wild card contenders (including the Broncos and Steelers) to get to 8 losses. For the Browns, that’s not likely. It’s a definite possibility for the Texans.