syhuang

It was discussed in this thread: Let me re-post Tim Graham's later "clarification" where he admitted “implore” was too strong and his article could mislead to have readers believe there were recent meetings or orders from Pegula, which isn't the case after all. Overall, I call it bad journalism. @Big Turk If possible, please include these clarification tweets from Tim Graham to get the story straight in your first post.

ESPN explains this “Open” score in their site and it’s not “separation”: ——————————————————- Open Score: How is it possible to assess untargeted routes? For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. That means our models do have some sense of timing. ——————————————————- It’s their estimation on the likelihood the receiver is able to make the catch 0.2 seconds before the quarterback release the ball if the ball is to this receiver. But as bold above, the models do not know QB’s progression of the play. Basically quarterback ability is very important to this Open score. Some of the obvious flaws in this model I can think of is that, it’s possible (bad) quarterbacks missed the open receivers and when the quarterback makes the throw, the actual open window is gone. Or the quarterback passes the ball too prematurely. Or it’s simply the quarterback makes the passes in his first couple reads before the route is developed for other receivers.

No problem. If you eventually find the source about Samuel being 136th best separator last season, please share it. If not, it's okay. It's curious to see which source has him being this low at only 136th in separation while Next Gen Stats has him at 3.3 yards which is in the upper half among eligible WRs.

it's okay, please update back if you're able to find it especially the one regarding Samuel being only the 136th best separator in the league last year.

Would be interesting to see any source regarding Samuel has worse separation than Digg too.

source: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation This is correct. According to NFL Next Gen stats, Samuel had an average separation of 3.3 yards while Diggs was only 2.8 last season. Furthermore, it's something consistently that Diggs' separation rate is between 2.5~3.0 yards in last five seasons while Samuel is consistently half yard or more higher than Diggs in separation. And Yes, Davis' separation rate is in the same range as Diggs and lower than Samuel in last 5 seasons.

This is a bad journalism in my opinion, Tim Graham later "clarified" and admitted using "implore" is too strong. But I guess he gets his clicks by using "implore" after all.

We are doomed again….. 😎

Not a rookie. He is a 3rd year player who started 6 games in 2022 and 12 games last season.

Did he?

If they decide to do it, it surely will be entertaining.

It's funny, when the other 31 teams make signing like this, TSW cries about other teams playing 4D chess and Beane not thinking outside of the box. Then when Bills make signing like this, TSW cries about Beane wasting time and resource on the player.

Maybe this should be posted in a different place. Is there an option to also "ignore" the replies which quote these ignored users?

If Bills are planning to send players to Olympics this summer or this is the only stat they care, yes.