Milanos Milano

You are right. Hall is no CHE, he is better than CHE. I would have never drafted CHe because his RAS and 40 time were garbage. Hall is elite based on RAS, college production, and 40 time. He’s in the upper echelon statistically.

In the past, I’d be inclined to agree. But with the opening up of online betting, a lot of people are placing bets on the most mundane things. To go from +600 to +150 tells me there has either been a lot of public dumb money (NFL network media driven) or somebody in the know feels confident to place big money enough to swing like crazy. I don’t think it’s far fetched to believe some smart money came in after seeing the payout given the nature of the topic. It wouldn’t take much to even sniff a possible big board or to know people in high places. Honestly I don’t know, it’s just an educated guess. I see these kind of things on other betting topics other than sports like predictit. It’s not hard to know enough or know people who do know to feel confident in hedging your odds on topics structured like this.

While yes, public dumb money can be wrong, but I don’t think that is what is going on here. The nature of the betting topic is different to boot. A fight odd is way different than a draft positional choice odd. One is based on a bunch of multiple variables that are generally out of the realm of “in the know” categories. The draft positional choice odds are in the realm of “in the know” categories. People with specific tells or insight can and do swing odds majorly based on information. You can’t easily do that for certain betting categories.

Santa’s sack is about the only sack Maybin could get. Breece and Woolen no doubt.

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB.

Big adjusted swings that favor betting odds. Going from +600 to +150 in just a day is a large swing. It tells me someone in the know knows.

Im honestly surprised more members haven’t voted in the poll.

This coupled with the Vegas betting odds and someone must know something. Vegas rarely misses.

He also wasn’t a fan of Josh Allen. I let the RAS, 2 years of production, and a 4.45 or lower 40 time do the talking. Statistically Breece Hall should have at least 3 season of 1,000 yards or more in the NFL if he remains healthy. It’s like a 80%+ guarantee. Not many other metrics out there have better success odds that predict good outcomes.

Usually if a RB has 2/3 of the attributes. RAS above 8. 2 years of great college production 1k+ , and a 4.45 40 time or better, they will have a decent NFL career. Usually RBs that don’t have it don’t work out very well. Alvin Kamara is my biggest outlier.

I would have drafted players like LeSean though despite RAS because they at least 2 years of production and a 4.45 or lower 40 time. 4.45 would be my cutoff. Generally my cutoff for RAS is 8. The one player the formula would have missed for sure is Alvin Kamara, but players like him are a rare occurrence in the dataset.

I would have never have drafted Helaire and a few others over the years using my formula and I would have been right.

Look at the company that Breece Hall is in! At 9.96 RAS, he has a greater than above average chance at seeing multiple 1k+ seasons in the NFL. Considering his speed, he should be able to perform. It is well worth the risk at 25. https://ras.football/2017/05/21/does-athleticism-correlate-to-nfl-success-for-running-backs/ Taking a first round RB only makes sense if their RAS scores and college production are elite. At 9.96 RAS, 2 seasons of 1400 yard+, and a 4.39 40. Chances are probably above 75% that Breece Hall has at least 3 seasons of 1,000 yards rushing based on the statistical analysis of those with similar attributes.

Right now Breece Hall is 1 vote from 2nd place. Really the main board thinks it will be either (Booth, Gordon, or Hall).

You realize Breece Hall did what he did behind an O-line that won’t feature a signal lineman that is going to get drafted this year. Where as Najee had profession players at Alabama. Yet Hall is faster than Najee?

I should have said top 5 RBs in the NFL by production, not by RAS scores. Some of your best RBs had good RAS score. LT, AP, Forte, Chris Johnson, Barry Sanders. So many great RBs had good RAS scores.

9.9 RAS . People are stupid, let them think whatever they want about Breece. The metrics don’t lie. Go look at the top 5 RBs for RAS and they can get back to me.

What I want to know is, how do people like Simms and others know we are in love with Breece Hall. They must have a source, they generally don’t say things like this unless it’s true.

A lot of people knew we were taking Allen. It was no secret.

@Solomon Grundy Starting to get excited!

The Vegas odds have tremendously shifted in favor of RB in the first round for the Bills (more than likely Hall). Curtesy of @Logic . Someone in the know knows.

Vegas knows.

Yep, it’s the 25th pick in a draft where Beane has said there isn’t a full round of first round grades. Anyone being mad at Hall as the pick would be silly.

I mean if we trade up. I’m not going to be mad.

Even Daxton and McDuffie make sense.