I still say draft. To pay the money to a FA after seeing him play in the NFL and have him still bust is more on a GM than a draft pick.
Also, if it’s a risk, you can work the contract to get out of it, ie Tyrod.
Getting stuck in a large guaranteed contract on a problem player, ie Dareus, is a mistake.
I understand the point you are making. Draft can be lucky. FA mistakes is poor decisions.