Beck Water

There can not possibly be a better post in this thread.

I'm not saying we can count on it, but just a point that we did sign 2 rookie WR last season: 5th round pick Justin Shorter, and UDFA Tyrell Shavers. Shavers spent the season on the PS; he mostly made his name in college as a ST ace. Shorter spent the season on IR except for a 3 week "designated to return" stint. He has OK speed (4.55), close to a 3' vertical, long arms and big hands. Now I'm not saying that we're going to get something out of Shorter. He was a top recruit out of HS who failed to entirely live up to his potential in college - he struggled with drops and injuries. But I will say, our draft picks have surprised me before, so don't entirely write him off.

So Tim Graham and Friends podcast Graham tells a story about the aftermath of the Jets game last season. Says how forlorn Josh Allen was after that game, taking the loss really hard. Says when the media was allowed in, Josh was sitting there in his uniform still after the game, Kyle Allen trying to console him, and a steady stream of players coming up to him, patting him on the back, dapping him up, "we'll get them next time", Dion Dawkins "Seventeen for life, I Mean That". Says they were all trying to pick the guy up, he had a towel draped over his head, just sitting there forlorn. One thing Graham didn't include in his story because he didn't know what Stefon Diggs said to Allen, but Stefon Diggs came up and said something, and Josh Allen snapped at him "It's One *****in' Game!" and motioned like "I'm not talking to you here" and Diggs walked away and Josh sat there. Says "maybe Stefon Diggs was saying something nice to him" but, he didn't snap at anybody else and there was a stream of players coming over to him. Whatever Stefon Diggs said to him, Graham said Josh Allen wasn't having it. Also says Devin McCourty told him, having studied film for his NBC analyst gig heading into the season finale against the Dolphins, said "looks to me as though the Bills are trying to prove that they don't need him". Graham says, "By definition, finishing the season 7 and 1, They Didn't." Now, that [edit: the final game of the season against the Dolphins] was arguably Diggs best game of the 2nd half of the season, 7 receptions for 87 yds. But, Shakir had 6 receptions for 107 yds, Kincaid had 7 for 84 yds.

I don't see Beane giving up that much draft capital for a WR. Then factor in that the order they were drafted in was 600, 400, 800, 900....and a more productive WR was drafted in Round 2

You know this how?

Having 3 talented WR who all wanted the ball took Burrow to the Superbowl, so sometimes it works like that. I don't think Diggs believes he's not getting another deal. I think he's fallen into the AB mindset that "he made Josh Allen what he is", he thinks he isn't doing better since 2021 because Josh Allen isn't good enough, and he thinks he'll be a 1400+ or 1500+ #1 WR again with teams lining up to pay him. Someone is right, and someone is mistaken here, and time will tell.

Well, that all depends upon who is correct, right? Beane and company, by their actions, are saying "Cold Hard Football Facts: you're declining, Diggs, so we're willing to eat a bunch of cap this year in order to grab next year's 2nd while the grabbing is good." Greg Cosell is saying flat out "tape shows he's not a #1 at this point, he's not elite, he's a good possession receiver". The Texans, by taking him on as a 1 year rental AND sweetening his pot with more guaranteed money, are saying "you're still a #1, so we're gonna do whatever it takes to make you happy, because we think you can help us win this year."

Well...it depends upon what the team's goal is, No? Diggs wasn't playing like a #1, and the Bills offense was #6 and we had to win out at the end of the year to make the playoffs, and as you point out....Diggs did not have great contributions in the playoff games. So if the team wants to go any further this season, Beane has to *improve on* Digg's production in 2024.

Negative. Texans voided remaining years of his contract after this year https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/stefon-diggs-16872/

I don't think anyone was arguing that he wasn't potentially a good deal for the receiving team. He's somewhere between a reasonable ROI (if you think he's now a #17 or #18 WR) and a bargain (if you think he's a very talented #1). You can tell that by the fact that Houston is willing to sweeten his pot with an additional $3.5M. It's the Bills end of the bargain, the fact that the Bills will be assuming $31M dead cap AND leaving a giant WR skill shortage on their team, that folks like myself and Cover1 opined made him untradeable. The wild card is that apparently, for reasons not entirely apparent outside OBD but the subject of endless speculation, the Bills wanted his space more than they wanted his skill.

He did not give money back to them. The opposite - they gave extra guaranteed money, from next year, to him. The Texans are definitely giving him the red carpet, "I am a #1 WR, woo me" guy. It's very puzzling to see the disparity between that, various pundit takes, and listening to Cosell on OBD - who is not a Bills shill, he is "Facts on Tape"

The Texans were never locked into keeping Diggs after this year, but Diggs was locked into playing for the Texans for 3 more years if they wanted him to.

In your day job, do you write soap operas? Of COURSE the Bills, who like every other team sequester their players in a hotel the night before a game with a few select players allowed the privilege to go home, would allow Josh Allen to go home and throw big parties at his house the night before home games. Give Me A Break.

When did we ever see him on the right side? He played like, 3 snaps on the R side against the Giants. Let's wait and see what the contract actually is. Key points are how much is guaranteed, how much is salary, and what are the incentives. Spencer Brown is set to be earning $3.585M this season.

No, while the actual formula teams use (just like their pick value formulas for the current year) aren't confidently known, a next year's pick is certainly considered a lower value - and that value is typically considered to equate to "decrease by a round". This isn't something that's just created by whiny fans. I believe the rationale has to do with 1) lost opportunity cost - miss out on acquiring someone you can develop THIS season 2) increased uncertainty - this season teams know exactly where the draft pick is, what positions they need, what talent is available in the draft. Next year, teams don't know exactly where the draft pick is, what positions they will need, or what talent will be available.

Yeah, it's an interesting contradiction. According to Cosell, he's not any longer a #1 WR, he's more of a "possession receiver", and he is NOT going to Houston to be their #1 WR. According to "Speak", Pat Macafee etc, he's going to Houston to be #1 on their depth chart, they don't really think Nico Collins is a true #1 WR despite his 73.4% catch %, his 1297 yds, his 16.2 Y/R, his 86.5 YPG - all numbers better than Diggs with more targets in more games, put up. And, usually when you're paying a guy $22.5M fully guaranteed for a 1 year rental, you expect to be using him A Lot. On the other hand, last season, Nico Collins gave them A Lot and he certainly doesn't deserve to lose any target share or attention. If I'm Houston, I make sure a leetle birdie gives Diggs a transcript of Cosell's interview and another leetle birdie transcribes portions of McAfee and McCoy for Collins. I mean you can think whatever you like - I can too, and I personally think we didn't get enough for Diggs (given that like everyone else, I don't know what it's like between him and Allen or inside the walls of OBD) - but what evidence do you have to support the idea that 1) we left a better offer on the table ? 2) Diggs didn't go to the highest bidder ?

I think you can assume that Houston offered the best deal. I don't know if Diggs had a trade approval clause in his contract - they're pretty rare - but if he did, that would factor in too. If you haven't, go on Youtube and listen to Greg Cosell on OBD. He is not a Bills employee, he's an analyst and senior producer at NFL Films, and widely respected around the league for his film breakdowns. TL;DL: with no reason to be civil towards a Bills player on a Bills show, Cosell amplified on things he's previously implied during the season. He made it pretty clear he thinks the Bills traded Diggs to Houston because no other team was interested or offered in the same range.

I personally would have thought Van Demark >> apparently washed up La'al Collins, but we'll see.

Eh. It was one of our remaining holes or positions that lack depth: backup OT. He'll get to show if his back is healthy and if he's returned from the ACL/MCL he suffered late in the 2022 season. He hasn't played a regular season snap since. Spent last season on the PS. I wouldn't have thought he was a "process guy", but maybe they think he's learned something since 2021

Not quite correct. He is due $19M in roster, workout, and salary. His $18.5M salary is fully guaranteed. So if Houston cuts him this season, they owe him $18.5M or whatever fraction of $18.5M he has not yet been paid in per-game salary checks. All right, scratch that. If Houston cuts him this season, they owe him $22.5M or whatever fraction of $22.5M he has not yet been paid in per-game salary checks. Okay, Then.

To me, that's the clincher. In 2020, he was AMAZEBALLS in the playoffs. Deadly. Lights out. In 2021, he was OK against NE but 3 of 6 for 7 yards in the "13 seconds" game. In 2022, when he slumped in the 2nd half of the season, 4 of 10 for 35 yds in the Bengals debacle. In 2023, similar 2nd half slump, 3 of 8 for 21 yards in the KC loss. Once is an occurance, twice could be a coincidence, three times is a pattern.

Dude. Does the phrase "over the middle" have meaning for you? Do you actually understand what routes Reed ran and what his role was, on the team? Hint: James Lofton was the boundary. You sure are super selective about how you look at stats.

I would love to be a fly on the wall and know whether that was the plan all along, dating from the post-season player performance review, or if something else has happened. One example of this kind of long term thinking would be when the Bills moved on from Marcell Dareus. There the Bills were, 6 games into the 2017 season. It was obvious that McDermott and Beane were not long-term fans, but he was playing. He'd missed a game when injured, came back, was back up to 57% of the snaps and seemed (to me) to make a difference in gap integrity on run defense. They'd inherited him on a 6 year, $60 million contract extension signed in 2015, so they were on Year 3 of it. All of a sudden, he was off to Jax for a conditional 6th that turned into a 5th round pick while the Bills ate a chunk of dead cap. He played all season for Jax AND arguably helped them beat us in the playoffs (yeah, he had 4 tackles, but that wasn't his job). Beane and McDermott even alluded after the season that McDermott had not necessarily agreed with the decision to trade Dareus when we did - it didn't make our defense better - but "understood the reasoning" after they talked.

Um, no. The Bills would have paid $27M for Diggs on the roster, and then if they cut him next off season, an additional $23M. That's a total of $50M This way, the Bills pay $31M. So they could have kept Diggs, at the cost of an additional $19M against the cap over the next 2 years. The more realistic question is, "is Diggs ROI still worth an extra $19M total over 2 years AND having an extra $23M on the cap next year if we part ways?" Clearly the Bills answer to that question was "Nope!"

There you have it.