Beck Water

Charming people, I'm Sure

I don't agree with their assessment of Beane and the trade for Josh Allen: the bottom line is, no matter who is sitting in the GM chair, if the team doesn't have a top QB its overall outlook is poor. But otherwise, spot on. The assessment of the trade-up for Sammy Watkins is especially a propos No, not quite. I'm saying that you can make up a number of different scenarios where we don't trade for Diggs or extend him, and acquire quality receiver talent by other means, and that the chances we make the playoffs could theoretically be just as good. If we're playing "let's rewrite history and figure out who we could have acquired instead of Diggs, or by trading Diggs after 2021 instead of signing him to a big extension in Spring 2022, SURE, we can come up with a variety of solutions to replace his regular-season production. I'm saying if you take the team we had, and erase Diggs regular season contributions, we don't make the playoffs - even if Allen does a super-efficient job of distributing the ball to the rest of the guys on those teams as they were. You can't erase or disparage Diggs regular season production and without Diggs, I personally don't believe we had enough regular season WR/TE talent. We made it work at the end of 2023 by leaning on the run game, and I hope we don't intend to become a run-first team, that would be a waste of Josh Allen's talents. And Diggs did have some clutch playoff contributions - 2020, and the Miami game in 2022

Question: did you ever?

I hear you both that defense is a question mark. But then, last season with losing Edmunds and not having a clear cut MLB or Von Miller to start the season and with Tre White as a giant ? based on the end of 2022, I thought our defense was iffy and our offense would have to carry us (which, I thought it could) Turned out it was the other way around - our defense was solid until we lost Tre, DaQuan and Milano, with Floyd playing great in place of Miller and Tre back to his old form. Our offense was tenuous with splendid plays offset by miscues. I think the D will be O.K. provided Milano is back to form and we get SOMETHING from Von Miller besides interviews and podcasts. Both the guys we brought in at S (Rapp and Edwards) can play, so can Douglas and Benford. Injuries are a huge question right now, as we're thin behind the starters. I guess from that, my learning is I have more faith in McDermott and Beane to bring forward a defense that works no matter what and to add what they need if they don't, than I do in them to devote enough resources and have the right OC and players in place on offense.

I'll cop to it. I tend to omit Samuel when thinking about the WR room. Not sure why. Possibly because Beane's last 2 mid-tier FA WR acquisitions (Hardy and Crowder) didn't work out for us, for different reasons. Me Bad. Factually, though, I think you're significantly misrepresenting Samuel's availability/injury history. He's missed significant time in 1 of the last 5 seasons https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SamuCu00.htm 2019: 16 games 2020: 15 games 2021: injured most of season 2022: 17 games 2023: 16 games Where is this "weak and wobbly" "always hurt" coming from?

That would be grand Yeah, it's possible he had a problem that never healed correctly all through college, and the Bills had him get a procedure and then go through a long process to break down the scar tissue and really "get it right" - we rebuilt him so he is stronger, faster, better in effect. IDK

Right, yes. Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team. Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety. It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.

And you certainly have a relevant point, that if the Bills had done a number of different things, they could have had different players who perhaps could have helped Josh elevate his game and make the playoffs. After all, Jefferson was available with the #1 pick we traded! etc etc. I think that's inarguable, so you're right there. My point was that to just say "I don't care about Diggs regular season contributions when he squibbed in the playoffs" doesn't really account for this. Other things being equal, playoffs would not be as much concern without Diggs regular season contributions. I don't think that's arguable, either.

You might have a point with regard to 2023 when Shakir had taken a big step forward and we had Kincaid playing very well. But who was there to spread the ball to in 2022? Of course if you want to hypothesise different WR onto the roster, any situation can be created.

Editing to whittle down to the bones of my own concern....it's that "usual take a middle round WR Carolina tradition" Beane cut his GM teeth with, combined with his talk about "no gaping hole" in the WR group. Add that to the WR situation Beane happily brought Allen into in 2018 (which he later admitted was a mistake), and the improvements, but not enough improvements, he made in 2020.... It's not always unreasonable to predict the way a frog (or a GM) jumps, from looking at its past jumping pattern. I agree with you completely on the playmakers and post-season.

Well, that's fine, but if you believe Beane and had a whole long post advancing arguments as to why he might be right, isn't it then appropriate for others (like me) to debate your arguments, and not side-step behind "I'm just the messenger, argue with it all you like"? You're entitled to just be the messenger and not asked to defend what you present (because, messenger) You're entitled to believe Beane and present arguments you believe support what he says "either or not both"

Well, to be fair....if we didn't have those 3,800 regular season yards from Stef the last 3 seasons, would we be in a position to whinge about his lack of playoff contributions? You're right, I mis-remembered. Apologies, 2 year deal it is. But as to his durability, he missed the playoff game against the Cinncinnati playoff game in 2022 with a calf injury and missed 10 games in 2023 with a torn pec. He's 32, the fur on the lucky durability rabbit's foot starts wearing off.

So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change? If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

I didn't get the tune at first now I can't Un Get It EDIT: Never say TBD is not educational, @Ralonzo. I was THIS many days old when I learned that shaving cream is flammable!

Oooh, James Lofton was pretty chill by the time the Bills acquired him at age 33. But in his younger days as a Star of Stars in Green Bay ...... he definitely had his Diva side. He was also in serious legal trouble, although acquitted: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-05-23-sp-1829-story.html

So let me ask you this: Do you believe him? Because that's really what I'm trying to discuss. It seemed as though you believe him and were advancing arguments as to why you believe that to be true. If you're just the messenger, then of course, there's no point in arguing, but that seems like a segue to much of the post I responded to. It seemed like something you believed, and were offering arguments to back up your belief.

While we're talking visual arguments, this is from Sal Capaccio. -At this point, the Bills rank 5th fewest receiving yards on the roster -Prior to the Diggs trade, it would have been 7th most I'm not sure how much 'career receiving yards' means; Diggs accounts for a lot because he's been in the league since 2015, for example. I think most people would say the Bengals have one of the best receiving corps in the league, but of course Ja'Marr Chase has 3 seasons and Tee Higgins 4. So they're 11th fewest.

Larry Fitzgerald after that it kind of depends upon how you define "diva"

Well, I suspect Beane does disagree, though he won't do so publicly. I know I do. I would personally say we have needs at DT, DE, and S at minimum; some might add CB. Yes, I know we have two safeties on the team, but based on performance on the field I am not comfortable with Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards starting at safety, and I think both our backups are career backups at this point. We need to draft a guy with upside we can develop. If that's not a need because we can pencil in names, then hey - we can pencil in names that have played many games at WR, too, so I guess that's not a need. Quality matters. Similar with DT and DE. Da'Quan is on a 1 yr deal and hasn't made it through the last 2 seasons. Draft a DT if there's a decent one anywhere near us. DE: Casey Toohill is a career journeyman at DE who has finally, after 7 years in the league, made it to where he started 8 games last year. Right now at DE we got Rousseau, Epenesa, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Toohill. *shudder* I'd say that 's a need. I got to say that's an impressive body of work, @GunnerBill. Just kudos for putting in that effort, year after year. As far as your comment I bolded above, I think Beane said something pretty similar in his presser - I can't find it on a fast run through, but it was something to the effect of the quality probably continues into the initial part of round 2 then tails off after that.

Mmmmm. Well, there are places where you're probably right. I have it on good authority that eyelash length isn't a factor, because with the increase in visor use the DBs are no longer distracted by the WR batting their lashes at a high rate of speed. Likewise, with the wide variety of custom cleats and orthopedics, toe length has now been shown to be irrelevant. "If a guy can shake his defender" is a big "if". Given that the defender *is* allowed to put his hands on the WR for 5 yds, and that refs typically allow hand-fighting all the way down the field - arm length seems directly relevant. Sure, technique matters, but when you have two players with great technique, it matters if one guy can put his hands on you while you can't even reach him. The questions for you are: -Is arm length that small of a talking point? Joe Marino did a podcast that was linked here where it was said only 2 WR had built successful careers with arms shorter than 30": Hunter Renfrow, and Isaiah McKenzie. Of course, there can always be a third exception, but sometimes when there's a rule there's a reason. -Can you construct a rational argument why it doesn't matter, given the legality of physical play w/in 5 yds of the LOS and it being allowed afterwards? Analogy: I'm one who kind of poo-poos the 40 yd dash times as "underwear Olympics" because it seems like a lot of guys who are super-speedy at the combine play slower, while guys who were slow at the combine play faster during games. My rational argument is now, GPS sensor technology allows scouts to track the actual playing speed college players show on the field and that's more relevant than 40 yd dash measurements. Do you have something like that to argue why arm length isn't important to help a receiver get off press man? Can't disagree on Josh being the best QB and share your hope that Brady will use Samuel well, and I'm all about drafting 2 WR though not necessarily 1st rd and 2nd rd.

Question: How many of his snaps did Shakir play from the slot last year? Someone here must know. I don't think the Bills are planning to use Samuel as a "gadget WR4". I think they intend him to split his snaps between the slot (primary) and outside. I don't think we disagree. My primary point was just that I read a lot of people writing as though Shakir and/or Samuel can simply replace Davis, and while they can both potentially increase their production from what they had last season, they're not going to replace Davis role or the production that came from Davis filling that role. Shakir overall had 52% of the offensive snaps last season, but he had more like 30% during the first half of the season, and 70% during the 2nd half. Samuel had ~ half the offensive snaps for Washington through the entire season. During his best season (2020) he had 68%.

Really good finds, Thanks. I'm not sure I 100% buy pro-bowls as a great metric now-a-days when it seems to have become some kind of popularity contest. What it comes down to is opportunity cost, and I'm not invested enough to fully lay this out as a mathematical problem but here are the trade offs: On the one hand: You improve your chances of landing "The Man" from 33/100 to 55/100 moving up from pick 28 to pick 10 so 22%. Against that you set that Pick 10 ~1300 and Pick 28 ~660 so you need to essentially provide the equivalent of 640 points. Since next year's picks devalue about a round, that might be next year's 1st PLUS this year's 2nd (300). That represents 2 talented players (1 next year, 1 this) who can help fill other team needs on a cost-controlled basis. Meanwhile, even in the top-10 picks, there's still a 45/100 chance you won't pick The Man, but now you've not fizzed there, but you've lost your chance to reload and fire again. I hesitate to speak for @Thurman#1, but it was my understanding of his intended point that "Franchise QB" is a position worth risking the opportunity cost for as without a franchise QB, it's tough sledding to get to the playoffs much less championship.... ....but that trading the farm for a hoped-for #1 WR is not the same impact to offset the opportunity cost. Please correct me if I'm mistaken, @Thurman#1

While it's pretty much a given that Beane is going to know all this and more....it doesn't follow that because he has 20 1st round grades, he needs to trade up, right? You can bet on it that different teams have different players with 1st round grades. So the chances are very high that all through the 1st round, a player the Bills have a 1st round grade on will be available. Now that said....I don't believe that any GM is truly a "best player available" guy with no concern for the valuation of different positions AND the specific holes on his team.

I think it means this:

OK, so two points here. Samuel and Davis are two very different cats with different primary skillsets as WR. Samuel is a converted running back who during his career best year and in Washington, has taken most of his snaps from the slot. He has the release moves and the speed to be more effective as a boundary receiver than, say, Beasley, but it's not been his primary thing. Davis, on the other hand, just could not run those crisp routes over the middle; he lacked the quickness. Maybe it was his ankle injuries, I don't know. But he had the physicality and the strength to win outside and the ball tracking skills to seal the deal. Bottom line: Davis production, and Samuel production, different production. Would have added to each other great, don't replace each other. Now maybe Shakir can become an outside threat, but he'd kind of be the first 29" armed player to pull that off. Never say never, I guess. He merits more targets, for sure though.