Beck Water

Milano's replacement was a platoon of Tyrell Dodson and Jordan Poyer, because Williams didn't "cut the mustard" yet. Given that both Dodson and Poyer are gone now, why would it make sense to gut one of 2 units on the team that look to be returning intact, kind of? I don't know what Beane will or won't do. I was shocked that he traded Diggs. I was also surprised that he released Poyer, given that the cap savings were $5.4M and that Poyer signed a 2 year contract "with the intention to retire a Bill", and that Hyde was gone in FA and Tre White designated as a cut. McDermott is very big on maintaining continuity and veteran leadership. But I don't think it would be the "best way" to move up.

I mean, I'm sure criticism is out there - always is, somewhere - but the OP was pretty specific in his OP post: "the criticism of Josh Allen by the media and non-Bills fans seems to be the trend this offseason. He’s getting the label of a guy that can’t and never will get it done. A “poor man’s Roethlisberger” or Phillip Rivers (who I think he’s already surpassed in 6 years.) Guys like Lamar Jackson get flack, but the flat out hating of Allen has been absolutely ridiculous lately and it’s everywhere" I tried googling those terms and the first hit I got was a reddit post "This week's match-up is clearly amplifying the Roethlisberger comparisons, but I don't see it." The second hit was OP's post on this board The third was what seems like another bulletin board called "LetsRun.com "Josh Allen is Trash" dated JUST AFTER THE 1st JETS GAME where his play ...looked like it. The fourth was a positive article on the board "Steelers Depot" titled "Josh Allen 'very humbled' to be named in the same conversation as Ben Roethlisberger' " It's just pretty disappointing to ask for examples and get Strawman responses like "I'm not going to screenshot every comment I see". No one asked this, but if it's everywhere, coming up with, say, 3 or 4 links that seem representative doesn't seem like too big of an ask.

You might recall he had a playoff interception 2 plays after he had a DPI (a real DPI, shown on replay as "yep, that's legit DPI, no question") that gave Pittsburgh a 1D on the Buffalo 4 yd line. That's sort of the story of Elam. He can do good things - he had 2 INT in his first 6 games - but he can also "fail" in coverage, and he can go for the INT at the expense of proper technique in coverage. Benford was injured and inactive for our playoff games in 2022 and played 13 snaps before going out with injury vs. Pittsburgh (didn't play against KC), so why would you call him out for not having INT in games he didn't play? Douglas played 1 of 2 games. He was active (but playing hurt) against KC

I believe Beasley made that point he was subjected to a lot of crap on Twitter and Instagram, but when he met people in public they were never like that, more like "oh you're my favorite player", "can I get an autograph?" "can I get a picture?" all positive. Well, as far as receiving talent, he's not wrong, is he? Brown and Beasley were a good WR duo in 2019. Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Gabe were a better quartet in 2020. Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, and Gabe were more variable in 2021 - Sanders pulled a lot of targets and had variable results pulling them in at times, but still good. 2022 and 2023, still had Diggs and Gabe, but no one to really take the place of Beasley or Brown, so the WR talent fell off. As far as rushing game, the tweet has a point - through 2021, the best running back on the team was Josh Allen and Daboll was not hesitant to exploit that. When McDermott cracked down, we had no run game until Brady took over.

I could be wrong, but I think the Bills need to move one way or the other, and knowing Beane, Up is more likely. But not having a 3rd round pick hampers him.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2024/3/30/24115912/2024-nfl-offseason-workout-progam-dates-announced-buffalo-bills-begin-april-15#:~:text=The Buffalo Bills plan to,-4%2C and June 6. Report date April 15th, I believe that's for 2 weeks Phase I Phase II workouts May 20-21, May 23, May 28-29, May 31, June 3-4, and June 6. Mandatory Minicamp June 11 through June 13th Draft takes place April 25-April 27 and I believe there's a rookie minicamp that takes place in early May. Please feel free to delete or merge if someone already posted this weeks ago and I missed it.

OK, I read articles, but I don't have Twitter or IG or Tiktok accounts so I spend very little time online. The only social media I have is Facebook, and I use it to stay in contact with rellies and friends and some local or hobbie groups. So I'm honestly asking. You don't have to screenshot every comment you see, but some general insight rather than "trust me it's out there", would be helpful.

For sure, valid point. Not just QB situation, but overall team situation - talent around them at receiver, OL quality, coaching, OC.

I'm not Firebaugh Kid, but I thought he showed flashes when he played towards the end of 2022 season when Benford was injured. So I don't think the "Fat Lady" has sung yet, but I don't think other GMs are gonna give much either. He's saying Elam would have negative value in a trade. It would de-value our pick to the 2nd round to package Elam with it. Wise guys.

I think this is one of these things where, "if you don't think enough of your 2022 1st round pick to play him in in more than half the games, and you're already giving up and willing to trade him, we don't think enough of him that we're willing to give you very much" Fact: Cordy Glenn, who was an established starting LT before previous season injury and IR, moved us up 9 spots from 21 to 12, WITH a same year 5th round pick thrown in (and a 6th back as change). Fact: Brown is not a LT, and a 2025 4th is considered devalued to approximate a 2025 5th. I don't think you're gonna see Brown get you 12 spots.

In a way, this encapsulates the argument that "stats are for losers" and why eye ball and shoe sole scouting has its place. I agree that Chase had a lower year this year because of the QBs throwing to him. But when we add in external factors, St Brown arguably had his stats depressed in 2021 despite having Goff for 14 games, because Anthony Lynn was not a very good OC and because the team as a whole lacked talent. Anyway, point is, I understand your POV but my point is, it is debateable to some, and why.

Well, no, that's not quite it. We're looking at the pool of WR who were top-20 in Y/G for at least 1 of the last 3 seasons, and asking where they were drafted. So of the top WR, 61% didn't get drafted in the 1st round, true. But when you're trying to FIND a WR, you have to look at how many WR were available to be selected (or how many projected to be drafted in that round) and ask what the odds of finding a successful WR are, overall for that round. So, for example, in 2023 there were 19 WR drafted in the 4th round or later. One (Puka Nacua) lit it up. So odds from random chance would be 1 in 19 of getting a top WR in the 4th round or later. Of course, the Bills talent evaluators would like to believe it's not a random event due to careful evaluation of the prospects in person and study of their film.

I transparently explained the methodology I used in my OP post: pro-football-reference wAV. It's not perfect, but it's reasonably objective. I understand your viewpoint, but by objective measurables they may be closer than you believe at this point. St Brown has been available for a few more games, which is factored in; he has more targets, more receptions, a higher catch % (73 vs 66), more 1D, the same # of all-pro selections. Chase has 8 more TDs, 129 more receiving yards, higher Y/R, and more playoff games (6 vs 3) wAV is 35 for St Brown, 33 for Chase. So yeah, you may disagree, but it certainly seems debateable. All honesty, I think there's a bit of "halo effect" because Chase had an All-World rookie year and then two very good seasons, while St Brown had a Rashee Rice-like rookie year, a very good second year, and an All-World 3rd season.

FWIW, I share @Mister Defense's question about where and what is this anti-Allen criticism? Don't tell me it's all over, show me what you mean. Thanks.

I would like to know what the story was with that guy. He looked so slow in our offense, was that just me? Course we only gave him like, 10 snaps per game. Anyway, I wish him and Nyheim Hines the best (except when they're playing the Bills of course) I have to take the "L" for both of them, I didn't think they'd be major finds but I thought they would both contribute more than they did.

Could we try for Puka Nacua? LOL that's a TBD special. "This player's no good, therefore let's trade him for a high pick!" because you know, if a player is genuinely limited surely some other GM will give you a sack 'o draft valuata...... We traded Cordy Glenn, who was a very good LT when not injured as follows: "On March 12, 2018, the Bills agreed to trade Glenn, the 21st overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, and a 2018 fifth round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 2018 12th overall pick and a 2018 sixth round pick" So basically, Glenn plus a 5th/6th pick swap moved us up 9 spots. IF we value Brown, a RT, the same (that's an 'if'), he'd get us from 28 to 19....no where near 10.

I don't disagree with the overall point of your post, but it's worth noting that when the Bills broke the drought and only had one (1) 1st or 2nd rounder from prior drafts on the field (in fact, many players from any round prior drafts), it was in large part because Beane and McDermott cleaned house, arguably trading away guys who could play but who weren't "their kind of guys". Guys they swept out the door included Marcell Dareus (who was on the field for JAX), Reggie Ragland (played 3 years for KC, won a Superbowl with them), Ronald Darby (still playing, last season for BAL), Sammy Watkins (6 more seasons), Cyrus Kouandijo (2 seasons for DEN), Bobby Trees (still playing, won a SB with LAR), Stephon Gilmore (still playing) So if your point is, the Bills drafting was so horrid that none of their guys could play - while there was a long stretch of horrid picks like Aaron Maybin and Torrell Troup, there was also a fair bit of talent. The problem is, we either moved on from it for nothing (Gilmore, Bobby Trees, Andy Levitre), or just failed to develop it properly in what seems to have been a 'dysfunction junction' environment. (it's a bit of a nit, but Eric Wood, our 2009 1st round pick, was on the field for the JAX playoff 100% of the snaps. Shaq Lawson our 2016 1st round pick, and Cordy Glenn, our 2012 2nd round pick, were both on the team, but IR'd)

One would think, but when you're wealthy and can afford the best attorneys, you get all kinds of stuff like the Kansas City prosecuting attorney accepting a plea deal from Britt Reid for 4 years (commuted by the Governor after 16 months) because they were afraid they wouldn't win in court and get the 7 years he could have faced..... I'm just thinking that a bunch of the charges will get dropped on some technicalities unearthed by a crack legal team or due to quiet offers to settle with the injured parties who will then stop cooperating with police and ask that the charges be dropped. Then he'll be offered a plea deal. KC isn't the team to give up on a rookie who had 938 yds and 79 receptions, just 'cuz of a felony charge, or two, or eight.

The team that won the 2022 Superbowl did so with a top-10 vet receiver who happens to play TE, a 26 year old (former 1400 yd) #2 WR who was drafted in the 2nd, their own 2022 and 2019 2nd round picks, and your daughter's gym coach who used to play for the Packers. 2023 Superbowl, make it a vet receiver who happens to play TE and is starting to slow down, their own 2023 2nd round pick who looks like the best WR of the 1st 2 rounds, their own 2022 and 2019 2nd round picks, your daughter's gym coach who used to play for the Packers, and the hindrance supplied by the Giants. The Cinncinnati Bengals WR corps, they ain't. But KC made a significant draft and FA investment in WR, some of which didn't work out as they planned. But, they took their shots, 3 out of the last 5 years 2nd round picks. That seems to be a lot more investment than the Bills have tried on, until Kincaid last season (since I'm counting him as a TE)

I would like to see the Bills take at least a couple flyers on FA through training camp. I'm making my way through the list of FA WR still available. I'd like to see us try out a younger guy (27-29) who has had at least 1 - 1000+ yd season in his past, and who has quite possibly been hampered by living through poor QB play. Anyone stand out to you? I'm kind of interested in DJ Chark, though I don't have the whole scoop on his injury history and why he fell off https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/available/

Wow! I legitimately Did Not See That Coming. I wonder how many "stick" after Rice's best lawyers get on it?

I used slightly different methodology (top-20 WR and looking at whether they were top-20 for 3, 2, or 1 year) and a slightly different time window (the last 3 years) Just a little note that a top-32 WR would get a lot of posters here saying "not good enough" Conclusion: So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years: 39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half) 25% from Rd 2 21% from Rd 3 4% from Rd 4 11% from Rd 5 Then, I used a different methodology using pro-football-reference wAV statistic, and looking at drafts from 2017-2023. I wasn't looking at hit rate here though, but at success vs. draft pick order.

Except that's not what Josh said at all, unless by "official practices" you mean "voluntary OTAs in April" (which are, you know, voluntary and not practices)

I said it up thread: Credulous Same with people who think Pat Mahomes, with his 7.7 golf handicap and his part-ownership of a soccer club, spends every waking minute of every day trying to be a better football player - simply because we're not seeing social media clips of him golfing, but we are seeing social media pics of him in a weight room with WR. It's the peril of our times.

Same