Beck Water

Where was the parts about McDermott "working with what he's got"? I think McDermott's vision of the ideal defense actually is, 'selfless guys all working their utmost to lift the team to the skies' or some such vision, vs. a "Stars and JAGS" model, and he had to be pulled towards the idea of needing a few "freakazoid" stars kicking and screaming, by experience. As far as Elam, Lance Zierline on NFL.com (I find myself nodding in agreement often, when I go back and read his takes) said this about Elam: "He plays with good awareness in zone and has the twitch and length to make plays on the throw when squatting in space.". Someone here who watches a lot of Florida games said that they played zone more than people thought (I think he said 30 or 40%) with Elam, and he wasn't the man2man specialist some portrayed him as. Take that for whatever it's worth to you. My personal take is that we thought we could coach him out of his known flaws (weak in run support, grabby with receivers, technique flaws) but so far, we haven't managed that.

I don't want to appear ungrateful, since you did follow through, and I realize you're not talking to me but: 1) your first link is apparently "just a guy" named Skap Attack who says he provides "Essays, arguments, fact checks, parodies and ***** talk". Does anyone care what a JAG with 39k subscribers, providing "parodies and ***** talk" says? 2) your 2nd link is a JAG called "Bills Bunker" with 4k subscribers who evidently hunted up a bunch of negative talk about Allen he could object to? 3) First Things First and Nick Wrong are long time Josh Allen Haters (and I'm not one who uses the word lightly); any criticism they have is Business as Usual for the last 7 years, Nothing to See Here, Move Along 4) "Get Up" on NFL Network with Kimberley Martin, Mel Kiper Jr., Louis Riddick and Field Yates have 419 subscribers (a more reasonable # to pay attention to) and seem to be more nuanced discussing Josh. Is there some criticism? Yes. As a scientist, I want to kind of reach through the screen and give them a little shake while I chant "Correlation is Not Causation" in their ears about 300 times. And the first guy (Riddick?) who said Josh is not going to have the same stats he did last season without a material addition to their WR room, which hopefully we'll get through the draft, is probably correct! I had a good laugh when the host said next season, in November when the Bills are 5-5 we'd have a bar "what's wrong with Josh Allen?" because of course, WITH Stefon Diggs, the Bills were 5-5 this November. I liked Mel Kiper saying " I don't think the sky is falling" mentioning Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Curtis Samuel, Cook, and a draft pick". Then it was pointed out by Field Yates, 13 games without Diggs >100 yds vs. Lou saying, Diggs was having an impact just being on the field, vs Kiper saying "look, the #1 receiver's job is to be the #1 receiver, not just to be on the field opening things for other guys". I thought it was actually a pretty good balanced discussion. If this is what ya got as far as widespread critique of Josh Allen it's either 1) by JAGS 2) by a known extremist Allen Hater Nick Wright or 3) Huh, a lot of good points back and forth, except for the ijit who kept talking about "if the Bills are 5-5 in November" without recognizing that hey, the Bills WERE 5-5 in November in 2023 WITH Stefon Diggs. I don't agree with the statement "despite those interceptions usually not having an effect on the Bills winning games". Anyway, thanks for providing some info. You said "by the media and non-Bills fans seems to be the trend this offseason. He’s getting the label of a guy that can’t and never will get it done". The non-Wrong media you sampled here was actually pretty fair I thought. As for the JAG "non bills fans" in your first sample, Explain to me Why I Care.

I think you're both "on to" something here, and it's actually been my contention. Many people like to fault McDermott or Frazier (usually McDermott to my eye) for the defense falling apart in the playoffs. I see it differently. I see it as McDermott and Beane built a defense where "the whole is much greater than the sum of the parts". But, it had no true game-wreckers on defense. So if enough of the component parts were missing due to injury, or if one component makes a mistake - poor or mediocre teams will still be slowed enough to win. But the best offenses will drill into those weaknesses or individual miscues on any one play, and absolutely EXPLOIT them, and we have lacked the "freakazoid" defensive game changers to overcome that issue. I don't entirely fault Beane for this. He tried to acquire game wreckers. Tre White was the first. Then Ed Oliver, who took a while to "get after it". He drafted Rousseau, who, to be fair, has a higher wAV than any other DL in that draft and within 5 sacks of Jaelen Phillips. He tried to double down with Basham, after using a 2nd round pick on his body-remodeling project in Epenesa the year before. When those 3 weren't "cutting the mustard" in 2021, he went out and made a big FA splash by signing Von Miller. But Miller, and our 2017 1st round "freakazoid" Tre White, got injured and weren't the same for the next season. Then, just when Tre White looked like he might be coming back, injured again. Some Days You Da Windshield, Some Days You Da Bug. There's some bad injury luck there. There are also some legit questions "did we grab the right guy?" (Ed Oliver over Jeffery Simmons, say? Epenesa over Greenard or Woonum? Kaiir Elam over Roger McCreary or Cam Taylor-Britt?) It's the same thing with offense. We have Allen, we had Diggs, and then we had a bunch of "good" players who could win against most teams, but be taken out by the best defenses especially when the refs put away the laundry and say "let 'em play" in the playoffs. But no GM is perfect or gets it all right, and some of the teams that are championship-caliber have had some good luck - having "Mr Irrelevant" turn out to be a capable NFL QB, for example; or having a 7th round RB turn out to be a fightin' dog of an RB. There seems to be an element of luck in the whole thing as well. This is true. But so far, Groot seems to have an element of "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" in his makeup, and Spencer Brown doesn't seem to have quick enough feet.

I think if you got a guy whose best season so far is 49 catches and 587 yds, he's not in the same category as the TE "Freakazoids" Kelse, Kittle, Hockinson, Engram who are putting up more than 900 yds. So, "No" to qualifying Knox.

I'm unsure about the "misused" Harty is 5'6" with 28" arms. What about that screams "deep threat boundary guy" to you? He did catch some "long bombs" for the Saints in 2021 before the foot injury. But at a quick glance, that came to about 4 genuine deep bombs, 5 or so completions that were either just over or just under the canonical 20 yd "deep" pass, several incompletions or INTs against him on deep balls, and some shorter passes. 42% of his 570 yds came off of 4 deep passes; ~90 yds came off another 5 receptions. Are 9 receptions in a season enough to call a guy an "excellent deep threat"? But, bringing in the shorter and intermediate passes are essential to being able to use a guy who is not a true outside WR on deep bombs, right? because otherwise the opponent sees him walk on the field, says "here comes that boat-racer" and rolls a safety over him deep. Same with gadget plays; that happened with McKensie, until he improved enough to run some actual routes. Opponents got to where they saw him walk on the field and said "here comes the sweep or reverse". So what I saw, and I could be wrong, was a guy who just didn't have the quickness to uncover on the short or intermediate routes they asked him to run. And, he was thrown some deep balls early on IIRC but couldn't haul them in - maybe he was just used to playing in a dome, and couldn't adjust to outside, IDK. Or maybe he had just lost that quickness and speed edge that were his Jam. Now that said, could someone more clever than Dorsey have schemed up some way to use him more, I grant that point. But after week 7, Harty's snaps fell from an average of 22% to single-digits. Meanwhile, after week 7, Shakir's snaps rose from 26% to 69%, and I can't argue that was "misuse". I think he earned them. And I can't argue against Kincaid getting the snaps he did, either.

Return man maybe? He signed pretty much a vet minimum, maybe even a VSB contract, though it's almost fully guaranteed - which says they intend to keep him. Last year's main punt and KO returner for them was Devin Duvernay, who went to the Jags, though they still have Justice Hill and Tylan Wallace.

I think the Bills intended to use Harty more, as witness him getting 19-27% of the snaps the first 7 games. But it didn't seem to work out when he was on the field, and he didn't seem to be as fast as he looked in NO. So his usage fell off.

Fair take. If so, Terrell Bernard may earn "freakazoid" status.

It may be a clue to who they'd LIKE to draft. Beane said after the draft that they had a 1st round grade on one of the WR drafted ahead of them, so their many visits with Jordan Addison may indicate he was their guy (and he was, arguably, the best of the WR drafted in the 1st round although only 3rd overall) I'm thinking private workouts or visits (whatever PRI means) may be a clue

I think that kind of sums up where we are. I thought about including Von on the freakazoid list, and didn't, for the same reason you cite. In terms of roster planning, Beane had us lined up to have 2 freakazoids on offense - Allen and Diggs, with Kincaid and Cook as freakazoids-in-training. He had us lined up to have 4 freakazoids on defense - Von Miller, Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, and Tre White, with Rousseau and Bernard as freakazoids-in-training. Then injuries took out Tre White, Von Miller, and Milano, and the "very intelligent, thoughtful, and self-aware" Diggs couldn't figure out how to manage a good relationship with his QB (who Palmer has said is "a sweetheart, but I wouldn't want to mess with him") So we're paying big cap # for two departed former freakazoids in White and Diggs, and two once-were freakazoids who we hope get it back. I agree on Diggs and White until they got traded/injured/cut (they haven't quite aged out. I respectfully disagree on Poyer and Hyde, and I LOVED Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde. But they were never freakazoids. They were players whose Football IQ, synchrony and hard work made them a far greater whole than the sum of their physical abilities.

I agree with you both, but who we got now?

I mean, that's possible, and I could be mis-remembering but it seemed as though when we tried to use him in McKenzie's sweep/reverse or in the screen role, they squibbed. If you look up his game logs, you kind of see that - he was getting 20-25% of the snaps in the first 7 weeks, then (IIRC) McDermott said something in the press about "we're going into week [whatever], we ought to know what guys can do by now" and his usage dropped sharply to single-digit snaps, where it stayed for all but 2 games. He missed Week 12 but wasn't on the injury report. But was Harty part of that speed as a WR? We had Diggs. We had Davis, We had Shakir. We had Kincaid. We had Knox. Who did you want to see come off the field more, to make room for Harty?

He had missed all but 4 games with a foot injury the season before we signed him. Maybe he didn't really recover from that.

Do you come here to post about them?

Factually speaking, it is unknown whether or not it is true. And I think you know this. JMO

I do wonder how they feel, and how Nicole's family feels, having Simpson reportedly die "surrounded by his children and grandchildren". Those are Nicole's children and grandchildren, whom she never got the chance to watch grow or to meet.

Oh, now you're just *****-stirring.

Boyst, I KNOW you know better than that. The criminal justice system finds no one "innocent". You're either found "guilty beyond a reasonable doubt", or "not guilty beyond a reasonable doubt"

Fixed it for you. This isn't picking a nit, it's an important thing to know about the justice system. No one is ever "proven innocent" in a court of law. They are found "not guilty beyond a reasonable doubt". It's in the instructions given to every jury in every criminal trial.

Yes. Many people are complicated, both good and bad.

Could I point out a few differences, or are you sticking to that viewpoint no matter what?

I think it probably is. He's posted for ~ the last year about having some unspecified form of cancer and getting chemo (last May) then getting more treatment in February. https://abcnews.go.com/US/oj-simpson-former-football-star-acquitted-murder-dies/story?id=16354000 https://nypost.com/2024/04/11/us-news/oj-simpson-dead-at-76/ From looking at other posts on it, that's his legit Twitter (or X) account

Emmanuel Acho (I think) on "Speak!" alluded to every team having 3 or so "freakazoids", freakishly talented players who could ruin your day at any time during the game. Who are the Bills "freakazoids" on offense, defense, and ST? Offense: Josh Allen, no question I think James Cook has freakazoid potential, but to date, not fully realized - too many drops in the passing game, some amazing runs and some stuffs. I think Dalton Kincaid could grow into a freakazoid but not there yet Really, that's it. Dion Dawkins is a freakishly athletic "big guy" who does a good job, but it's hard for me to call him a "freakazoid". Defense: Matt Milano would we give this to Ed Oliver, the last season and a half? He's been claiming more and more snaps, and had 9.5 sacks last year - which isn't Justin Madubuike, I think is 4th for DT and is one fewer than Nick Bosa or Chris Jones? what about Terrel Bernard? he was 12th for combined tackles in the league last year - not Roquan Smith, but he's getting up there. ST: I got no one. They're all gone, and Bass-o-matic seemed to have the "yips".

My guess is that Beane has all kinds of contingencies modeled and possibly planned, from a mild trade-up to a trade-back

What are the penalties for DUI vs leaving the scene of an accident?