Beck Water

The point is that people who actually watch football and have actually watched it for 30 years and paid attention saw that Andy Reid was a HC in Philly for 14 years, with 1 NFC championship/Super Bowl loss to show for it. His QB through much of that time was #2 overall pick, Donovan McNabb. He also had Shady McCoy for 4 of those years. He had 9 winning seasons and 9 playoff exits. The NARRATIVE emerging from those people who actually watch football and have actually watched Andy Reid for 14 years, was that he couldn't "seal the deal" and take a team "over the hump" all the way to the championship. Then he took over in KC with former #1 pick Alex Smith, who had shown he could win in SF. Again, for 5 years, he was HC with a lot of talent - Hunt, Hill, Kelce, Smith - and the team had winning seasons, but didn't get to a conference championship or win a superbowl, leading to the NARRATIVE emerging from those people who actually watch football and actually watched the Andy Reid-coached Chiefs, was that maybe he still couldn't "seal the deal" and take a team all the way to a championship. Now he has Patrick Mahomes, 2 conference championships, 4 Superbowl appearances, 3 wins, and we're talking about how he's one of the game's greatest offensive minds and a "very lucky" situation Mahomes "fell into" with a 1st ballot HOF coach. My point is, while he was regarded as a very good coach before Mahomes, none of the rest of those labels were being applied to him.

You do know that before Patrick Mahomes started, Tony Dungy opined on national TV something like "the Kansas City Chiefs may win a Superbowl...but it won't be with Andy Reid as their Head Coach" The narrative about Reid has changed quite a lot during the last 6 seasons of his 25 year HC career.

"$142M guaranteed, and THAT'S the best you can do for a pillow? Really guy?"

I didn't even know Truman State had a football team.....and it was my kid's 'safety school'!

Depends on the guy, right?

Others are pointing out that your just pointing out is pointless, because to the point, you have no point of contact to give you pointers about the breadth and scope of either guy's overall days. See my point? You have no observations beyond some photos of Mahomes in a weight room with WR (and of his 'dad bod', and of his ice cream eating habits) and Allen on the golf course. We also know that Mahomes has a 7.7 golf handicap to our guy's 9, so it can reasonably be inferred Mahomes shows up for his tee time regularly.

So who didn't show up?

And yet....when dissecting Denver film, Kurt Warner was calling out how Courtland Sutton was releasing and running his routes.....

You could also look here and here I could be mistaken, but I think everyone agrees that typically, the more talented players get drafted in earlier rounds. I think the question is more - given a specific first round pick - #23 say - is it better to move up to, say, #19 in order to get one's choice of all the 2023 WR? Or would it actually be better to trade down and get some extra "lottery tickets"? For the Vikings, who stood pat and drafted Jordan Addison at #23, they actually got the best of the 1st round WR in 2023 draft. But they theoretically could have gotten a more productive player by trading back into the 2nd. I think the point of the OP's article is that the odds of the next player at the position being better by some metric (starting more games was mentioned, receiving yards would be another) are only slightly over a "coin flip", so trading up within a round, is probably not the best overall long term strategy.

Let's unpack this. "Green Bay has quietly built a nasty receiver corps with 2 2nds, a 4th, and a 5th". That would be Jayden Reed (64 for 793), Christian Watson (28 for 422' 41 for 611 last year), Romeo Doubs (59 for 674; 42 for 425 last year), and Dontayvion Wicks (39 for 581). Add in 2 - 350 yd seasons from 2 TE and 2 - 230 yd seasons from 2 RBs and you account for most of the receiving productivity for a team that was 12th in passing yards and 15th in passing attempts. Now obviously a lot goes into this - the QB, the OL, the design of the offense - but none of those numbers are exactly Chase/Boyd/Higgins or Brown/Smith/Goeddert or Hill/Waddle level nastiness. So let's keep unpacking. You're pointing at exceptional scouting on the part of GB and Pitt, such that you suggest Beane hire their scouts away. So let's ask, are these WR exceptional for where they were drafted? Well Reed (pick 50) was obviously a good choice, and better last season than Mingo (pick 39). But, he was not as productive as Rashee Rice (pick 51). Josh Downs, drafted at 79, was almost as productive, and Tank Dell (pick 61) was more productive on a per-game basis. More unpacking. Watson is the 3rd most productive WR from the 2nd round 2022, behind Pickens and Alec Pierce (both drafted after Watson). Doubs, drafted in the 4th, is an outlier and was almost as productive as Watson. Maybe GB great scouting ought to have drafted Pickens or Pierce? Doubs has been a very good choice. He has been more productive than Buffalo's 2022 pick Khalil Shakir. But, Shakir had a 2nd season that was almost as good (39 for 611) as Doubs 2nd season, and that's WITH being behind a #1 WR who dominates the target share in Diggs. I think it may be TBD as to what Shakir can be with a more equitable target share. Doubs had 96 targets, and caught 61.5% of them; Shakir had 45 targets, and caught 86.7% of them. On a per-target basis, one can make an argument for Shakir being the better choice. Joe Marino podcast is every day, right? So I guess he needs stuff to talk about. If his point is that 2nd round and later round picks can fill out a decent WR corps, Sure! I 100% agree! But that doesn't give you a "freakazoid" WR who can take over a game, either. If his idea is that the Bills should lure away Pittsburgh and GB scouts because their WR drafting is so much better than ours (or is that your idea?) I don't think the results are terribly persuasive. We all missed Puka Nacua, so if we're going to hire away scouts, let's get the guy who scouted HIM. I guess I'd like to finish by pointing out that 4th round Gabe Davis was more productive than Reed on a per-target basis (62 vs 92 targets, Davis had 45 for 745), has shown that he can contribute that well or better 2 years in a row, and yet far from extolling him as an example of good drafting there was a lot of drum-beating that Gabe Davis just "wasn't a true #2" and we needed better. I kinda wonder if there isn't a bit of "grass is greener" syndrome going on here.

Are you guys talking overall, in the whole draft? One factor with teams that are consistently good, is that their lower round draft picks may not stick on the drafting team because, "no room at the inn". But they may stick on other rosters. So one needs to consider how that's factored into this assessment.

The OP Athletic article also doesn't discuss differences between the top of the draft and later rounds, or between the behavior of a team that is rebuilding vs one that is set at a lot of positions. It seems to me that probably matters. Someone referenced PFF data on this. I and others have done more back of the envelop studies that indicate the probability of getting a good player is something like 30% overall in the 1st round (maybe 50% at the top of the first round). That's not a star, just a good starter - including Jerry Jeudy with Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. The second round is also 30% overall, falling to something like 20% in the 3rd round and maybe 10% after that. Of course, there may be some self-fulfilling prophecy in that higher draft picks tend to get more development attention and more chances to start.

I totally hear this. Especially this year. I was able to name the player in something like 55 out of 79 pictures (a lot of repeats) but probably am wrong on a handful

Yes we believe it's Eli Ankou.

Ozzie Newsome was one GM called out in the OP Athletic article as consistently better than most: "Though some posted better track records than others, specifically Baltimore’s Ozzie Newsome, the answer was mostly not." But get this: "Coincidentally, around that time, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said the following on a podcast: “There was a really seminal article written in 2005. It was really about the draft and how teams should trade back and always acquire picks — and never trade up.” DeCosta doubled down in 2021 when a reporter mentioned the Ravens as one of the top drafting teams in the NFL. “We’ve probably had the most picks over that span,” he said. “That goes back to a philosophy that I think Ozzie started back in 1996.”" So Ozzie Newsome and his successor Eric DeCosta may be doing better than average, because they are following the "trade back, get more lottery tickets" philosophy.

That's actually a valid point. One of the biggest unpredictable factors is, you take a guy who may have come from an impoverished or chaotic family background and who, in any case, has not been in the habit of dealing with large amounts of money. How will that impact him? Will he still have a "fire within" to be great? Or will he start loving the lifestyle the money can give him, over the pain and effort of the game that gave him that lifestyle? Or maybe he starts out loving the lifestyle and not as motivated and something changes him - he has a child, or someone influences him. It's intangible, and like any intangible, predicting that can be highly flawed.

OK, this could be a basis for discussion. Who, in your view, are these teams?

that's honestly what I reacted - Wait, that's Micah, that's his voice, that's his face but then the conscious brain kicked in and I said "so who is it then, 'cuz Micah's gone" I have got to learn me some new faces https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/buffalo-bills-arrive-for-2024-offseason-workouts#0d3d5789-531a-41e1-8410-39a10d59e8b7 I have no idea who so many of these guys are. 1 Groot 2 Ty Johnson and ?Darrynton Evans 3 Ty Johnson 4 ? 5 Bass-no-longer-o-matic 6 Josh Allen 7 Desean Williams 8 Dalton Kincaid 9 Will Clapp 10 ?Casey Toohill? 11 Josh Allen 12 David Edwards 13 ?Taylor Rapp? 14 Baylon Spector 15 ? no idea - maybe that's Casey Toohill? 16 Reid Ferguson, Sam Martin, and Matt Haack 17 Matt Haack 18 Sam Sartin 19 snapflow himself, Reid Ferguson 20 Connor Mcgovern 21 Dorian Williams and ?Nick Morrow? 22 ?Nick Morrow? 23 ? 24 Spencer Brown and Khalil Shakir 25 Khalil Shakir 26 Spencer Brown 27 Josh Allen 28 ? 29 ? 30 Khalil 31 Quinton Morris 32 damar hamlin 33 damar hamlin 34 ? 35 taron johnson 36 shane buechele 37 ? 38 ? 39 ? 40 ?Tommy Doyle? 41 ?Tommy Doyle? 42 ?Van Demark? 43 ?Van Demark? 44 ?Reggie Gilliam 45 Kaiir Elam 46 Kaiir Elam 47 Josh 48 ? 49 ? 50 ?Curtis Samuel? 51 ?Curtis Samuel? 52 53 54 Terrell Bernard 55 Terrell Bernard 56 Terrell Bernard 57 Mack Hollins and Mitch Trubisky 58 Mitch Trubisky 59 Mack Hollins and Mitch Trubisky 60 Mitch Trubisky 61 Groot 62 ? 63 MILANO! 64 ?Cameron Kline and Eli Ankou and I take back what I said about him skinnied up 65 Eli Ankou 66 ?Cameron Kline? 67 Andy Isabella 68 Da'Quan Jones 69 Da'Quan Jones 70 Jamarcus Ingram 71 Jamarcus Ingram 72 ? 73 Ed Oliver 74 Ed Oliver 75 Dion Dawkins 76 Dion Dawkins 77 James Cook (and man, does he look sleepy or stoned) 78 AJ Epenesa 79 Taron Johnson That's a lot of ?? for me - help?

As to the last, didn't hear it. And I was listening. Called him his brother, said he extended a hand to him when he joined the team, didn't say anything about him as a QB I read your post, rightly or wrongly, as saying Diggs still believed in Josh as his QB and it was the Bills initiative to be shopping him. My point is from what others have said about seeking permission to seek a trade, it was Diggs who wanted out and asked the Bills if he could have his people shop him. He didn't believe in Josh as his QB or in the Bills organization as a Championship-caliber organization any more, and he wanted to seek greener pastures. Who knows? The bottom line is that Diggs has moved on, and the Bills have moved on. I have moved on, from Ghost (Gabe Davis dog) to Penny (Khalil Shakir's dog)

We wholeheartedly agree on this. Part of his problem IMHO is that Daddy already got him off twice (that the news media knows of). In 2007 he was sentenced to 8 to 23 months for running a "drug emporium" out of the Reid residence (he was 22 at the time). While he was in jail, he was charged in a separate 'road rage' incident for brandishing a gun at another motorist, which, since it was an unlicensed firearm, is a felony. He was "diverted" to a drug program after 5 months. He received probation in the gun charge, and the other party involved settled a lawsuit for an "undisclosed amount". Who knows how many times he was pulled over and used the "son of famous football coach" card to get off with a warning or nothing? I'd guess, "a lot". So as far as I can tell, this guy has been getting in trouble and having his father's money and the best lawyers that money can buy protect him from the consequences of his own actions for 14 years, escalating from brandishing a weapon at another motorist, to using a car as a weapon by getting drunk in the Chiefs facility then driving it.

Except the story from others is that it was Diggs agents who did the shopping - that they had permission to seek a trade from anyone but KC So who knows? Except I think it's been a couple years since he said that about Josh, feel free to set me right "In fact, if you leave him alone too long, he'll chew up your sofa like an understimulated husky!" "We just got that sofa!"

That's true, but look at the reverse direction at the end of that Tiktok. (45-50 seconds) He's "on"

So, 15 to 18 months of jail time, maybe? Like Britt Reid after handicapping a little girl severely for the rest of her life?

Dude, Stop. You made statements, a couple of you asking you for sources is hardly "harassing you". Were we following around asking you on your every post? Following you around the site? Hitting up your DMs (I know I haven't)? What is this "harassment" you have suffered? If it's on Reddit or Youtube, it should be findable.

I voted "no", not because I think Beane is looking to trade for a star WR, but because I think Beane knew he couldn't trade for a star WR before this deal and this deal doesn't change anything.