Beck Water

He's got a good voice and a good sense of rhythm but that guitar playing.....eeeek! (doesn't help that it's over mic'd relative to his voice) Some folks here got a Brudda from Another Mudda in the replies: "instead of singing learn to throw better you neanderthal"

Who the hell is his QB? Just as I watched Mason Rudolph and James Washington jumped out at me - watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me. Penix, right? Polk does make it look like he just pressed a big red "easy" button when it came to catching those bombs, though.

Correct on Beasley; his comment was in response to a meme suggesting that Allen, like Iowa's Caitlin Clark, was being expected to win it without talent around him. Beasley's point was that from 2019 on, Allen had talent at WR. He's not wrong, albeit whether it's been "enough" talent either in 2019 with himself and Brown but not Diggs or a Diggs equivalent, or in 2022 as he and Sanders were gone and Davis/McKenzie were expected to step up (and did so inadequately), is a fair ask

What do you think of the suggested trade up, though (swap 1sts, Bills give up a 2nd next year and 2 4th round picks this draft)

So question: do you think he plays faster than his 40 time? I sometimes think too much is made of the "underwear olympics". Not that speed isn't important, but as you note, there are guys who put up fast 40 times, but who just don't have burst off the line or suddenness when changing direction. Some scouts seem to think that Polk has burst, strength, and explosiveness which may be more important to NFL success in a WR than just ability to run fast 40 yds in a straight line.

OK, point made Ooooh, not good - Sorry Elam, but you were making technical mistakes during pre-season. New DB coach got to put the oven mitts on ya.

Not to mention he fumbled a catch and let a ball go through his hands earlier in that very game

You're shooting your shot wide right here. Greg Cosell is not a click-bait headline generator, and he stays relevant because of the widespread respect he's built across the league as a film analyst for literally 40 years.

Oh, Decisions Decisions. Who to believe, professional tape watchers like Greg Cosell who say unambiguously that Diggs is no longer a #1 WR at this point in his career, because he has lost the abilities to separate more than 10 yds past the line of scrimmage? Or someone whose chosen screen name leads off with "Bull"?

https://www.howtopronounce.com/adonai Your choice Well, then - Boom or Bust guy with immense physical talent, who may or may not respond well to coaching Beane saying:

Former St Louis Cardinals fans be like:

True, but since he was pick #32 of the 2001 draft some have argued that's effectively 1st round. I would also like to know this.

That's actually not a bad thought - the "Jerry Hughes for Kelvin Sheppard" phenomenon. I think McDermott has been on record multiple times stating that players really develop and take a step in their 3rd season. So I think the Bills still harbor hopes for Elam developing. Time will tell.

They drafted Elam in the first round because 1) he was legit regarded as a 1st round prospect 2) it's Beane's 'jam' to value traits you can't "coach up" - athletic skills - over a high level of demonstrated performance in college where the system, talent, and opposition are more variable. It's one of the ways Beane tries to compensate for having a team that has been winning and therefore drafting near the bottom of each round for the last 5 years. It's why we got players like Rousseau, who had a high physical ceiling but only played 14 (fourteen!) games in college. And FWIW Rousseau grades higher than any other DL taken in that draft by PFR's wAV metric (higher than Jaelen Phillips and Kwity Paye who were drafted above him). Then there's Josh Allen, who we all know about as a high ceiling, sub-basement floor prospect It's great when it works, and of course subject to second-guessing when it doesn't. But the opposite tactic - taking a guy with a high level of demonstrated performance in college, but who may be near his "ceiling" and not able to make the jump to perform at the NFL level against more uniform talent on the opposition - has its pitfalls too. Witness Boogie Basham. And then there's the injury wildcard. I do think that Beane needs to adjust his drafting strategy somewhat. He's been very free with trading 3rd and 4th round picks to move up, partly on the theory that the roster was pretty well set so, it's worth it to go after a guy you really want vs. taking on more players who may not have a legit chance to make the roster. Except now, our roster is not pretty well set so we need those rookies to come in and 'bring it', so I think Beane should assign a higher value to those 4th round picks.

I think what you're describing is "the blessing and the curse" of fandom. It's like when some here point out that we watch almost every snap of Josh Allen, but maybe only highlight reels and occasional games of other QBs. So some here get hyper-critical of mistakes that Josh is making and fail to realize that every QB makes mistakes and has bad plays as well as good or brilliant plays - it's the overall balance. So you're watching game after game of Elam, but perhaps not watching game after game of the other DBs in the draft and the other players in the draft. But the scouts are watching film of many players and looking for that balance. I'm not trying to argue that you're wrong about Elam, BTW, just that ascribing the pick to "hubris by the Bills staff and FO" is probably not a reasonable take on your part, given the above.

There's no talkin'

You can project that, but the fact is, Kelce had been in the league for 5 years and had 2 - 1000+ yd seasons before Mahomes took the reins. Do you really want to try to make the argument that every 5th year player with 2 seasons with 80+ receptions and 1000+ yds is "on a HoF trajectory"? Do you know how many receivers would be placed on that track with those parameters? Mahomes took over and Kelce had an immediate bump - from 80+ to 100+ receptions, from 1000+ to 1200, 1300, 1400 yds.

Can I ride shotgun in your Lambo?

With all respect to Ayjent, here is Kaiir Elam's draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9 He wasn't regarded as a Day 1 starter, but he was regarded as physically talented and projected to go in the 1st. https://gatorswire.usatoday.com/2021/11/17/florida-football-kaiir-elam-espn-draft-mock/ https://www.si.com/college/florida/football/florida-gators-kaiir-elam-mock-draft-br-top-ten https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Kaiir-Elam-DB-Florida Now of course, all these pundits who don't have accountability should be taken with a grain of salt, but the point is, he wasn't regarded as a reach in the 1st and some even predicted him as a top-10 or first-half of the 1st pick.

You can say anything you like, and stand by anything you like, but you need to bring some receipts to show that Andy Reid was regarded as a HOF offensive HC before Mahomes. Same with Kelce and Hill - they were regarded as talented, but factually Kelce had 1 - 1000+ yd season in 4 years before Mahomes was drafted. That ain't the Highway to the Hall. Similar with Hill - his rookie year, before Mahomes was drafted, 61 receptions for 595 yds. They both had good years while Mahomes was 'watching and learning' on the bench his rookie season, but a single 1183 yd, 75 reception season for Hill and 2 1000+ yd seasons in 5 years does not make a HOF receiver. It's a bit of a strange "Hill to die on" for making your "factual statement" stake

Good call - he's kind of an Alex Smith type case though. His first year was a mess, changed coaches to Marty Schottenheimer and Cam Cameron as OC. Still embrangled in this weird dynamic with Doug Flutie the next two years, to the point where the Chargers thought he couldn't play and used the #1 pick on a QB. Then, HEY PRESTO, in his 4th year Brees wins Comeback Player of the Year, gets votes for OPOY, goes to the Probowl, team goes 11-4 and next year 9-7 while #1 overall pick sits on the bench and Whatcha Gonna Do Chargers? So they let him go in FA to NO and the rest is history.

Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes.

Fair enough on that last. I also agree on the point that teams can and do draft good WR who contribute heavily to their success in the 2nd and later. But context is also important; my point is that considering Romeo Doubs as a better 2022 draft choice than Khalil Shakir may not be justified, given Shakir's 63 fewer yards on less than half the targets Doubs got. I personally think you're overestimating the quality of GB's WR and under-crediting the quality of our 2 choices, Davis and Shakir, for the round in which they were drafted. I also think the problem with the Bills drafting WR is that after muffing on Zay Jones in the 2017 2nd, we simply haven't invested the draft resources at the position. Take KC, who look like they finally got a good 2nd round WR in Rashee Rice (if his culpable driving and legal troubles don't derail him). They took 3 - 2nd round shots who are totally meh in Mecole Hardman (2019) Skyy Moore (2022) and now Rice, to get what looks like one legit guy. I don't think our problem is necessarily scouting, but more 1) draft day shenanigans by Beane (trading away mid-round pick resources to move up in the 1st and 2nd or to trade for a player - we've been without a 4th 21,22,23 and we're without a 3rd in 24 2) allocation of resources - we haven't actually drafted a WR earlier than Rd 4 since 2017, before Beane officially arrived. In the 2nd round, we've drafted 2 OG, a RB, and 2 DE (and traded to move up). In the 3rd round, we've drafted 2 RB, a TE, an OT, 2 LB, and a DT I think it's possible that Beane and his FO might ID and draft good WR talent in the mid-rounds - but they haven't pulled the trigger. Note that I'm not saying they were wrong to allocate resources as they have - I'm all about protecting Josh, for example. But someone has to catch the ball.

I don't know that Andy Reid was, in fact, one of the great choke artists in playoff history (I suspect there are plenty of which I know naught), but I know for a fact that there were a sizeable number of Eagles fans and NFL football cognoscenti who felt like he was - who felt like he'd had enough talent to win and had failed to get 'er done in Philly. And then, as you note, there was that 38-10 lead which resulted in a 44-45 loss in 2014; the 21-3 lead that became a 22-21 loss to the Titans in 2017, and the 2 leads/tie that becamse a conf. champ loss in 2018. During that time, his play design, play calling, and on-field decision making were all heavily criticized - not just by fans, but by guys who've forgotten more football than I'll ever know (like Tony Dungy) My moral of the story is, the coach isn't good enough to get you there, until he is. That's not to say McDermott is good enough - I don't know whether he is or isn't. But there's this hindsight-bourne notion that Andy Reid was always "good enough to win one" as a HC in Philly and a HC in KC before Mahomes (and even Mahomes 2nd year in the league), and it's just re-writing history.

So tell me - what's your take on McDermott? Is he good enough to win one, with mostly bad luck? He's had 2 playoff losses against the eventual conf. champs and 1 conf. champ loss? How do you decide what is "bad luck" (injuries to key players, maybe 1-2 penalty calls that don't go your way or a mistake), and what is "not good enough", and be sure it isn't "hindsight bias" now that Reid has achieved what he has with Mahomes in KC? 'Cuz at the time, I can promise there were plenty in Philly and elsewhere in the league who weren't saying "Reid is good enough to win one, it's mostly bad luck".