Beck Water

C'mon Man. 2020: traded 1st round pick for proven successful NFL WR 2021: no offensive skill players 2022: 2nd round RB who has had 2254 combined scrimmage yds in 2 seasons 2023: 1st round TE who pulled in 73 receptions his rookie season 2024: 2nd round WR said to excel at contested catches, an ability we haven't had That's not consistent with the picture you paint of "big sluggish late round fliers, street FA and UDFA"

Well, kind of. You need receivers who can force the defense to defend the entire field horizontally and vertically. Practically speaking, that means you need a QB who can scare the defense knowing that he can put the ball anywhere on the field, and he needs a receiver who can get downfield before the pass protection breaks down so that if the defense fails to account for him or lets him blow by them, they'll pay. But in a modern NFL defense, that receiver doesn't necessarily have to be the guy who gets the most targets. In my opinion, Yes, but you need that guy who releases well enough and is fast enough to get downfield and make the opposing DC say "shiver me timbers!"

I disagree with the first, but the analogy is perfect. Back on the BA days of this board (Before Allen), we would see it all the time that people who had different ideas of what a franchise QB was, would argue vehemently about which QB were or weren't and who could be for us, without troubling to have it defined for them. A lot of those arguments could have been cut short by just....SAYING WHAT WAS MEANT Moral of the story: Don't assume someone knows what a Franchise QB or a #1 Receiver is without having it defined for them, explain what you mean by it.

Good post. People 100% use the phrase "#1 receiver" in different ways, meaning different things, and it leads to people talking at cross purposes. The conventional meaning of "#1 receiver" is the guy who commands the lion's share of the targets. He does this by being fast enough to threaten downfield; having the release moves/size/strength to get off the line against press man and not get shoved off his routes by physical DB play; being athletic enough to come down with contested catches; being able to run all the routes. Lately, where modern offenses spread the ball all over the field, exercise RPOs, and make use of choice routes, "#1 receiver" sometimes gets used synonymously with "X" or "Boundary" receiver, the guy who stretches the field vertically and loosens things up for the intermediate routes across the middle. Sometimes people use "#1 receiver" to mean guy who gets the most targets, whether or not he threatens downfield. By that definition, Kelce has been KC's #1 receiver since they traded Tyreek Hill in the 2022 off season - but even before that, Tyreek kind of made his living 5-10 yds from the LOS and turned them into 17 yd gains with YAC, so he got the #1 share of the targets but wasn't that prototypical boundary/field stretcher guy. Think I covered it and if people disagree I feel total certainty they will Let Me Know

To be fair, we weren't exactly hoping that Sherfield and Harty were more than they ever had been. At least, I would have been happy if Sherfield could have repeated his 30 catch, 417 yd performance from 2022 with Miami, and if Harty had repeated his 30 catch, 570 yd performance from his previous healthy season in 2021. But these are small points. Overall, the bottom line is I was hoping we could bring our WR talent back to 2022 levels and instead it's looking 2019-like, which was Not Good Enough.

No, I don't think we did enough As for whether we're finished....I didn't think we did enough at MLB last season. As it turned out, it was the best of times (Beane was correct that the answer was on our roster, and Terrel Bernard really stepped up) and it was the worst of times (once we lost Milano and schemed up a thing where Dodson and Poyer platooned, we had no legit backup for Bernard) I think the best case scenario is that we're in a similar situation - the best of times would be that Coleman proves capable of starting and contributing on at least a Gabe Davis level, and that Samuel and Shakir take turns platooning at the other outside WR position while we run a lot of 1,1 and 1,2 sets where we only have 2 WR on the field anyway. The worst case scenario though, is what's our plan if one of those guys gets hurt.

Would you mind providing a linky to that, because it's nothing at all that I heard Beane say

Just a few days. I believe the comp pick deadline is 4 pm May 1 As far as what Chark would cost, I imagine that's why he's still on the market. in 2022, he signed 1 year, $10M with Detroit. They can't say they got their money's worth with 11 games, 53 targets, 502 yds. Then he signed 1 year, $5M with Carolina. 66 targets for 525 yds not much better value for that. My guess is that Chark wants something similar, which is why teams are holding back.

I don't think that's the plan, but for goodness sake, step back off the bridge. I'm growing concerned for your health and safety. The season starts in September, not tomorrow Yeah, in hindsight, Beane should have kept it zipped It was bad PR to mention a raggle tag long shot the day of general fan disappointment about the Bills draft selections. Mea Culpa as well, that was my vision...but with 20/20 hindsight I should have realized they aren't gonna sign anyone who might interfere with the comp picks until after May 1 or maybe after June 1 when we get Tre's money

I'm impressed. I had to look that one up. Just to be clear, two different convos got quoted in the post you're replying to. The 4.62 40 yd is regarding Quintez Cephus, though apparently his pro day was faster The exhortation about catching and holding on to the Duke was regarding Cook, who was a top RB in yards last season but who needs to develop his hands to be a top receiving threat

Well, we're gonna have to agree to disagree on this one. I think Beane prioritizes what the coach wants much more than you believe.

A good GM will try to acquire players the OC identifies as necessary to execute his vision of the offense. After 4 years of relative consistency under Daboll, the Bills have now had 3 OCs in as many years. Why would one expect consistency from changing OCs with different visions as to what our offense should look like? Dorsey's vision of the offense appeared to involve small shifty guys (McKenzie, Hines, Harty, even Shakir). So far, it looks like Joe Brady's vision of the offense involves more power and less finesse. Week 1 thru 10 with Dorsey as OC the Bills were a heavily pass-favored team, and it wasn't always working - whether because of the receivers, or because of Josh Allen's sprained throwing shoulder, I don't know. 58% pass, 42% run. Week 11 thru 18 with Brady as OC, the Bills were a run-favored team, 48% pass, 52% run Whether that was driven by the personnel at hand, or reflects what Brady really wants to do with a free hand, I don't know - but I would say that moving on from Mitch Morse to Connor McGovern and drafting Coleman would argue that Brady wants the offense to look different.

Aaron Quinn believes both Shorter and Cephus will show out well in training camp and preseason, generating a lot of "buzz" amoung excessively enthusiastic and devoted fans (stans = stalkers + fans) who will gather together in a vocal support group (hive). Basically that they're gonna be the new Isaiah Hodgins

I don't know where you're finding that. He had 0 catches last season, because he was suspended indefinitely by the league last April for gambling on games, and re-instated this April. He had 2 catches the previous year (2022), that would be in part because he was put on IR (can't find for what. 2021, also IR with shoulder injury. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/quintez-cephus/32004345-5042-2041-b441-60bc9cb55ad1 Basically another guy who "if he didn't have bad luck with injuries, he'd have no luck at all" - he had a broken leg that cost him a college season. But he also has some shady ***** in his past besides the gambling suspension https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quintez_Cephus Does make it kind of puzzling that the Bills seem to hold up their noses at recent draft picks who may have issues.

The problem with KJ Hamler (and Cephus for that matter) is that they've been plagued by injuries. Hamler has had two torn ACLs (HS and pro), two hammies serious enough for IR as a pro, a torn pec, and pericarditis. If it weren't for bad injury luck, he'd have no luck at all. Isabella came out with questions about his hands, and has never managed to get on the field very much. The positive thing is he saw some ST snaps last season - not as the returner, but presumably as a gunner due to his speed. So if Brady has plans that require a guy with their skillsets, it f'in sucks that we didn't take a draft shot at a similar profile player who hasn't racked up the years of ?? If we're talking dark horse WR at the bottom of the roster, Bryan Thompson interests me. He's not a super speedy guy, but the draft profile I found (and I had to dig) had very positive things to say about his route-running abilities and release moves, and concluded he was worth stashing on a PS for a year to see if he could develop. So we signed him as an UDFA and stashed him....now we'll see.

Yes. That's what makes it frustrating. Cook has the potential to be a talented "freakazoid" for us, if he could clean up those issues a bit.

I hate to break it to you guys but he ran a 4.62 40 yd dash He needs to ***** catch the ***** ball and ***** hold on to it. 11.1% drops and 4 fumbles is not acceptable for a featured guy.

I think it's both. As a GM, it's Beane's job to supply his HC and coordinators with the players they tell him they need to build a top team. If Sean McDermott didn't insist upon a full DL rotation as a core part of his defensive strategy, Beane wouldn't be constantly focused on signing FA and drafting capable DL players or guys that they are confident they can develop into capable DL players. What's more, McDermott is - loaded word, but, fixated? on the characters of his DLmen. His defense critically depends upon the DL maintaining run gap integrity and not just pinning their ears back and going after the QB. There's a story that when Andy Reid fired McDermott as DC in Philly after 2 11-5 and 10-6 seasons where the D went from 4th to 19th to 21st, McDermott immediately started gathering feedback from players, coaching assistants, former players. One of the key feedback he reportedly got, from a respected player, was "you got to make sure all your players are bought in (to his system). He took it to heart. That's one reason McDermott is slow to move on from guys he perceives as "bought in" even if they're under-performing or injured excessively (Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, etc), IMO That said, I had a piece elsewhere before the draft about Carolina's pattern drafting for offense, and I absolutely see echoes of that in how Beane prioritizes defense - he'll say he doesn't, but he does. People like to talk about the Bills drafting Carolina players, but the real issue IMHO is Beane having internalized Carolina's lack of urgency about supplying premier offensive talent to go around their star QB. But you can see Beane's flexibility in terms of what offense he is supplying. Daboll and Dorsey wanted small speedy guys hence stockpiling Nyheim Hines, McKenzie, Deonte Harty. Looks as though Brady may have different ideas about our offensive identity hence Keon Coleman. Agree. "Rebuild" was what McDermott started and Beane continued when he arrived. It was said at the time as a critique of Whaley that the Bills had the fewest drafted players on their roster. But as part of the rebuild, Beane jettisoned any player he could get any kind of reasonable draft pick return from. And many of the guys they jettisoned, went on to play multiple years for other teams, it's not like they can't ball. Darby for a 3rd round pick; Cordy Glenn to move up 9 slots from 21 to 12 in the first round; Dareus for a 5th round and to shed cap etc etc (there are more I forget now). He didn't do that because they had better (at the time) players on the roster, he did that because he was collecting draft capital to move up and get a QB at all costs, so he had to move on from anyone he could get value from. This was a re-set because we were soldiering on with the same core cast of players hoping to change this and that and get them a ring, and it hasn't worked out, but they've aged out. So we're moving on.

Huh? Allen is under contract through 2028 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/25102/josh-allen Perhaps you are misunderstanding the "potential out" phrase in Spotrac? It indicates the point where the team would take less dead cap hit to trade or cut the player than the cap hit to keep him on the roster. But it's not the player's choice.

Here's an article that suggests, maybe they are https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39632786/xavier-worthy-nfl-combine-40-yard-dash-becoming-obsolete

With Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman in the room, those WR meetings are NOT gonna be dull

TBH I'm totally lost. I feel like it's the NFL's equivalent of ESPN's "total QBR", something that requires so much code no ordinary human can understand it. I want a formula I can sit down with a pencil and paper and a big-button calculator and grind through I can't even figure out what the floor is for a qualifying contract. I'll stop griping now https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks Anyway, we lost Gabe Davis, who signed for $13M AAV We lost Leonard Floyd, who signed for $10M AAV We signed Curtis Samuel, who signed for 3 yr, $24M or $8M AAV but evidently he doesn't count? Everybody else we lost or signed is apparently too small potatoes. So it seems to indicate a 4th/5th for Gabe and a 5th/6th for Floyd?

I dunno, but just to temper expectations I would think any signings would take place after May 1 - or are we 100% out of the comp pick business anyway this season? I would think Gabe Davis and Tyrell Dodson would help us get something....

And with Detroit, he had a decent QB throwing to him in Goff, but he was injured and placed on IR, only played 11 games.

Right. Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Ask any of the DLmen or LB who've chased him around the back field or any of the LB or DB who've chased him down the field if they think he plays faster than that. I've noticed that - Coleman looks slow and kind of lumbering when he runs and then you notice all the guys scurrying after him . So we'll see what we'll see when he has 11 guys with NFL speed chasing him. Article on 40 yd dash usefulness: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39632786/xavier-worthy-nfl-combine-40-yard-dash-becoming-obsolete It quotes one GM, Brandon Beane: