Beck Water

I surely hope you are correct. 2 would be good. Here's the thing, though, Thrive. We agree that Shakir is a talented receiver, and should get a larger target share than the 45 targets he got last season. So far so good. But the success he found, was in a specific role and largely from the slot. When we refer to a #1 WR, we typically mean a guy who can play on the outside and win contested catches downfield. Never say never, but as others have pointed out very few WR with <30" arms build a successful career in the NFL, and those who have are playing primarily from the slot (Renfrow) or as "gadget guys" (McKenzie). Nothing sets a good player up for failure more than asking a player who has shown talent in one role, into a role he isn't physically equipped to handle.

I suspect you are correct, although, I wouldn't rule out that they were attempting to correct a persistent, repeating issue that he was playing through. After digging into all these guys background, I would be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Shorter took a step. He seems like a guy who peaked as the top WR recruit in HS and couldn't really live up to the hype in college - EDIT possibly injuries played a big role here.

I think that's a reasonable take. I will now pour salt on the wounds by pointing out to all he was chosen by the Bills, 27 picks ahead of Puka Nacua.

That's actually a valid point, for some reason I keep mentally editing out Curtis Samuel who has shown he is a solid player. So we have 3 receivers who between them, last season, contributed 174 catches and 1899 yds. I honestly do think Samuel is a good player who has the potential to 'do a Beasley' and exceed his previous career year, so contribute in the high-800s/low 900s in a chain moving way from the slot. I think I keep editing him out because last time I was modestly enthused about a low-level off season signing it went awry.

Thanks, @Shaw66, appreciated. (And from the responses you're getting, you can see others appreciatecha too) I feel the problem with trading for a player like Aiyuk is that at this point, the Bills have to be judicious about who they pay. And it's not just the pick you give up, it's all the cap space you give up. Diggs and Von Miller are providing Beane and Bills fans with a very visceral demonstration of what happens when a GM guesses wrong on the window for ROI re-signing a veteran player. I do hear you that with Beane, anything can happen regardless of what he says, and he's not closing any doors. I personally feel that Beane "did the experiment" of trying to operate the offense without a #1 in 2019, and showed that we can win the regular season that way, but in the playoffs or playing the best teams, it's not enough.

OK, fair, I misunderstood - but I thought you were arguing for drafting up? The reason I misunderstood is that it doesn't make sense to me to argue for drafting up, by including a guy we both tag as a success who would be drafted by standing pat or trading BACK. How and why does that support your argument for trading up? I don't know...my guess is "not" but I think your top-3 success rate would also decrease. Ultimately, while I appreciate and applaud the work you put in, honest comment I feel choosing "top 3 WR" (when they're drafted at different pick numbers year to year) is a bit problematic. People, including myself and organizations like PFF, have tried to look at success rates by criteria like "top 10 picks" or "top half of the first" or "first" - some of it is in other threads on this board right now. The point is that while drafting, teams can't predict who the top 3 guys at a position will be, they can only make an educated guess about how early they need to draft to get a particular player. The bottom line is that the best success for any position is usually in the top half of the 1st round - something like 50%. Overall, in the first round, it's 30% and usually not much lower in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round. The second round as a whole stays pretty high, 20-25%. Third round something like 15-20%, then it plummets. Let me rummage a bit and I'll put a link to some of the recent stuff people have posted about WR success by draft round here.... Um, yes, you did include Ruggs as a "hit" when you brought up that the success would be 80% for a trade-up if you just included him - " If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%... think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???" My point is that if you include one hypothetical to claim a hypothetical marvelous 80% hit rate, you open a can of worms where other hypotheticals can enter the fray. And um, I'm not sure where you get the notion I'm upset. Not following you on the QB comment, but that's a nit. .....looping back to link some of the recent posts https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254036-how-to-pick-a-top-wr/#comment-9016893 looked at top receivers for the last 3 seasons and where they were drafted. 39% of them from 1st round, equal split between top and bottom half of the 1st round 25% of them from 2nd round 21% from 3rd round I'm not looking at "how many receivers were drafted where, and what % succeeded? I'm looking at "successful WR, where did they draft?" Here's one by Rigotz https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254044-1st-vs-2nd-round-wr-hit-rate/#comment-9017898 He goes back 9 years but omits the 22 and 23 draft as too recent for good data...you'll like his conclusion 11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%). 6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%). [So he would support you, don't trade back] Here's one where I was looking at the most successful players in each draft, vs draft order https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254021-interesting-wr-scenario-posed-by-a-friend/page/5/#comment-9016980 Just some different ways of approaching the same problem. Hope it's of interest.

Personally, I can't even pretend to have any kind of meaningful opinion - I just don't watch that much college football. But you're absolutely right that a lot goes into whether or not a guy succeeds beyond his innate talent. In addition to the factors you mention, there's also the intangibles of, how does this kid react to becoming an overnight millionaire? It doesn't help that to my observation with HS athletes, really talented athletes tend to get special treatment and the scope of it only gets bigger as they move up into college etc. I think that's one reason why the draft, even the top of the first round where the physical talent is undoubtedly elite, tends to be such a crap shoot. You can watch their film and measure their vertical leap, but not their heart or how hard they continue to work once paid.

Yeah, it must be $6M only with unpublicized incentives. Salary is $1.21M, $1.5M cap hit, but fully guaranteed. It's basically backup money. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lael-collins-17403/

Our ESPN reporter Alaina Getzenbirg piece on Josh's presser https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39970133/bills-josh-allen-thanks-departed-stefon-diggs-hard-work I dunno. My kid, who is a bit younger than Josh and Stef, seems to very rarely make actual phone calls and prefer to do everything by text or DM So I wouldn't read too much into "text vs phone call", but I think it's been pretty clear for some time, for other reasons, that they haven't been tight.

I agree with you completely on the need for elite talent. Where the debate seems to lie is with what is the best strategy to acquire same? As I pointed out to @transplantbillsfan above, the "hit rate" from taking one of the top-3 WR in the 1st round, and taking 1 of the top-2 WR in the 2nd round, are practically identical - 8/14 vs 6/10, 57% vs 60%. And some of those 2nd round players are arguably elite WR talent - AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr. If I were guessing which way the frog will jump, my guess is that Beane will trade up slightly and draft a WR in the 1st. But I don't think it would be closing the door on the potential for elite talent to trade back slightly and get a guy at the top of the 2nd, either.

I certainly agree with you on that last point, and about Kincaid/Shakir as ascending players. But as I said previously, 2 receivers isn't enough. We need at least 4 (IMO). I can't disagree on evidence as to any of the guys on that list being capable, but Beane did make the analogy to Terrel Bernard and Boy Howdy, this time last year if anyone asked whether any of Terrel Bernard, Baylon Spector, or Tyrell Dodson were capable of holding down starting linebacker spots (much less Dodson and Bernard starting together), I would have said "Hell to the NO!". Wouldn't you? And sure, he may have been using typical pre-draft GMspeak to which people who count (other front offices) doubtless pay no attention so, why?

Great that you put so much work into this, but how are you getting to 60% hit rate over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WR in the 1st round of the draft? That's 14 WR in the last 5 years (2019 saw only 2). By your assessment, that's 8 hits. 8/14 = 57%. Now that's better than a coin flip, but not too much. Now let's look at what happens if you just draft one of the first 2 WR in the 2nd round of the draft? That's 10 WR over the last 5 years. By your assessment, that's 6 hits, so 6/10 = 60%. That's actually BETTER than what you would get if you just drafted one of the first 3 WR in the first round!!!!! So according to your data - we would be just as good or better if we TRADE BACK! AJ Brown is the best WR in the 2019 draft, with Deebo Samuel a close 2nd. Sorry, but once you start what-if'ing, like "what if Ruggs didn't go to prison?" respectfully, we're entering the realm of fancy. What if Jerry Jeudy had a decent QB throwing to him instead of Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and The Ghost of Russell Wilson? What if Shenault has better QB than Mayfield, Darnold, and Bryce Young?

This is really rich. You stated to someone else [edit: @ToGoGo] "You can try to attack my character, but that just makes it clear you've run out of arguments. The difference between me and people like you is that I back up my arguments. Do you even watch the Bills? Josh peaked in 2020 if you've been watching the games, and the stats back it up." Do you even listen to yourself? You are asked to explain what, in particular, of the pro-football-reference Josh Allen stats you posted show he peaked in 2020 and hasn't developed since then? And you respond by what....attacking my character!!!! We will all note that you have categorically refused to explain exactly what it is about the pro-football-reference stats you posted that shows Allen peaked in 2020 and has not developed or improved since then. This puts your statements in the realm of dogma. It's also pretty clear that when someone resorts to the ad-hominem (attacking me, calling me intellectually dishonest) instead of actually providing information, they aren't actually depending on stats and facts to back up their argument - to quote you "that just makes it clear you've run out of arguments". I'm not going to defend my posting style or responses, I think the amount of actual research I put into posts here and my willingness to both acknowledge correction AND other people's valid counter points is well established and speak for themselves.

Me, I'll go. I was thinking he looked lost in space and slow in the game he played subbing for Milano his rookie season, and I had no expectation that we would see the level of play from him we saw. Contrary points, Bernard had a scouting report that included this: He also was game active for all 16 games and played regular snaps on ST I did a bit of a deep dive because I wanted to know if there were hints of anything similar in any of the PS WR or last year's rookies. I personally didn't see it in the stuff I dug up, but maybe I wasn't looking at it right. I guess the most promising to me based on write-ups would be Bryan Thompson. It's certainly within the realm of possibility for both Kincaid and Shakir to elevate their games (not sure we'll see Shakir beating man coverage, esp. from the outside). But when we had a higher level of WR talent in '20 and '21, we had more than 2 guys. When we only had 2 guys (Brown and Beasley) in '19, it wasn't enough. Pretty much just Diggs and Davis in 2022, Ditto.

I guess that works if the 4 Robins have the collective moxie of 2 Batmans, but as I recall the TV series and movies that didn't seem to be the case. I come back to Emmanuel Acho's comments about teams having at least 3 "freakazoids" and asking who, besides Allen, are gonna be the Bills "freakazoids" on offense? Because we can win games without, and even a playoff game without, but when it comes to the best teams contending for championships, I think we need freaks.

This is an interesting point. I suppose one of the concerns I have is 2019, when Beane added Beasley and Brown and told us all we'd have #1 by committee. That worked well enough to get us to 10-6 and a first round playoff exit, but it really wasn't enough, and adding Dawson Knox as a 3rd round TE pick described as "outstanding combination of measurables and traits, but he's much more moldable clay than game-ready prospect at this point" didn't add enough that year. I don't fault Beane for drafting DL, but there were receivers available within reach for us in the 2nd round who have proven to be very very good players, AJ Brown and DK Metcalf still on the board for example. So here we are going into a draft described as amazingly deep with WR talent, and Beane's words could translate to "First round DT it is, I'll draft a WR who has great potential late in the 2nd round or maybe in the 4th, see, we added someone!" It's not that I think Beane speaks his whole truth (not right before the draft, definitely) or that a higher 1st round pick is automagically better than someone drafted near the bottom of the 1st or in the 2nd round - not necessarily true - but IMO Beane does have a pattern of prioritizing high draft resources (1st and 2nd round picks) on defense that was only broken last year with our 1st and 2nd round picks on O. I don't have any "skin" in the game of being "right" about how I interpret Beane, but I am concerned that in fact, he is saying what he means and meaning what he says. I feel the team that developed Beane as a GM, Carolina, had a pattern to under-prioritize protecting Cam Newton and providing him with weapons, and Beane is continuing that pattern. If you look at Carolina's drafts under Rivera (by Gurney and then Gettlemen) I find it eerily reminiscent of what Beane has done here. When Rivera took over and Newton was drafted, the talented but ancient Steven Smith was the #1 WR, 32 yrs old; Greg Olsen was also on the roster. They drafted WR in the 5th and 4th round the first 3 years of Newton's career, finally using a #1 pick on Fat Kelvin in his 4th year (sort of like trading for Diggs in Allen's 3rd season). That's pretty much it until 2017, Newton's 7th season, when they drafted Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel. But by then, Newton was pretty bashed up and on the downhill slide. Seriously, if you look at Carolina's drafts from 2011 to 2017, it's headshaking.

I don't think we have any clue as to what Beane will do, honestly. He left the strong impression that he's not enthused about giving up what he'd have to to move into the top 10, but he didn't rule it out, either. And he may not have to - in 2020, for example, when people were predicting IIRC that receivers would go high and 2 were projected to go in the top 10 by several boards, the 6 who were drafted in the 1st round were scattered from pick 12 to pick 25. The best 2 were arguably the 3rd and 5th drafted.

What do you know about DJ Chark? Of the FA still available, he and Hunter Renfrew interest me the most, but from what others have told me Renfrew is most productive as a slot (so I think he duplicates Samuel and Shakir). Chark: -had 1000+ yd season with Minshew and Foles throwing to him, 700 yds when it was Minshew and Glennon -fell off the map under Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell -has had 2 ok-ish 30 catch, 500 yd seasons since with DET and CAR -last 2 seasons average 17 and 15 Y/R, but he doesn't seem to be a deep guy - it's 12 YBC and 4 YAC, so maybe more of an intermediate/short guy? I really haven't watched the guy play, interest just based on the fact that he had shown a couple good seasons and a couple OK seasons, and he's not an antique (27),

Understood on "not going to go back through", but if you have any clue about how far in it was, I'd appreciate it. I heard a lot of "don't need a true #1" "#1 by committee" prior to the 2019 season. Now admittedly, we upgraded our WR room with John Brown and Cole Beasley, though relative to Fat Kelvin, Bloody Zay Jones, Bob Foster, Andre Holmes, and Deonte Thompson, that was a pretty low bar to achieve. The bottom line, though, was that when it came to the playoffs where teams had had all season to watch film on us, it simply wasn't enough and Josh Allen was throwing passes at critical junctures to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco. I don't want to go back there. Even if (as some suggest) Khalil Shakir takes a big step, Dalton Kincaid continues to develop, and Curtis Samuel has something akin to his previous career best year, I don't think it's enough, and I'm concerned Beane does or will "settle" for it.

Of course. That's why I was surprised that @Shaw66 felt he heard him say that he wanted a #1. I thought Beane's whole point in this presser was to act like "What? WR? Nah, we're good...hey, maybe we got a surprise buried in the depth of the roster, like Terrel Bernard last year...Of course we'd like to add one sometime, but No Rush! OK, thanks for your explanation.

The difference between Bernard and Shorter to me, is that Bernard was practicing with the team and was active for 16 games in 2022 - he mostly played ST, but did get one start and took snaps in 4 other games. Shorter, on IR, couldn't even practice with the team. I think Shakir has shown he's capable of playing in the NFL, but if Beane is counting on him to "elevate" and play a much much larger role - We Shall See, I guess.

Here, I'd like to redirect you to some of the work I and others have done looking at where in the draft the top guys fell. If you mean, we better draft a couple WR in this deep WR-talent draft AND EARLIER THAN THE 4th ROUND DAMMIT BEANE! I completely agree. If you mean it will be a failure if we come out of the draft without moving up in the 1st round to draft one of the guys being talked about as the top 3, Meh. Sometimes the guys touted as the top prospects come out the best, sometimes they don't.

I'm a bit puzzled why you're replying to me here. In general, my phrase for Beane is that I think he tells the truth, but not the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I've said that in other posts. I have no idea what "puppeteering Bills fans" means or why you think it's an important trait for a GM - I woulda thought building a good enough roster to sustain a high W-L record and get into the playoffs would be more his jam, but whatever.

Beane, in his sincere attempt to persuade us to believe he doesn't view the lack of a Diggs-size talent on the roster as a gaping hole that he intends to address in the draft, alluded to "young guys on the roster who can ascend, but they have to prove it too". He made an analogy to Terrell Bernard, who played very little his rookie season then "elevated" in a Big Way last season. "Tremaine Who?" Thought it might be a good time to profile just who is lurking in the depths of the roster. In order of seniority: 1) Andy Isabella, 2019 2nd round pick of the Cards (62 overall). Small fast guy - 5'8 3/4", 29 3/4" arms, 4.31 40-time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Isabella "Isabella entered the 2021 season sixth on the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart, and only had one catch the entire season and was inactive for half the season." The Cards brought him through training camp and onto the active roster, but waived him in early Oct 2022. Since then he's been on the Ravens and Bills practice squad Draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella/32004953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224 He was a successful RB and State-level winning track star in HS. "Isabella has the feet and fakes to uncover in a hallway closet, and the former high school sprint champion proved to Georgia that his ability to win deep should not be underestimated. Isabella could become a menace on option routes with the ability to add vertical routes from the slot, but he must improve his pass-catching consistency and smoothness into his breaks in order to transition all that speed to the NFL." He actually played 34% of the ST snaps for Buffalo last season, but it wasn't as a returner (1 KR to add to 8 previous KR). He had not previously played much ST. Chance of elevating as a receiver? I give this "low" - see I think @Kirby Jackson comments about the odds of success for short receivers with short arms. Never Say Never but.... On the other hand, if he's learned to live with a screw loose, perhaps he could continue to contribute on ST. 2) KJ Hamler, 2020 2nd round pick of the Broncos (46 overall). Another small fast guy - 5'8 5/8", 30 3/4" arms, didn't run at combine, said to have 4.27s 40-time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._J._Hamler https://www.nfl.com/prospects/k.j.-hamler/32004841-4d38-6186-eea5-110d32b9644c This guy's NFL career to date has been the living demonstration of the lyrics "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all". He had a hammy injury at the combine. He had 30 catches for 381 yds and 3 TD as a rookie, but finished the season on IR with a hammy. In his 2nd year, he had a great training camp and went on IR with a torn ACL Week 3. In his 3rd year, he played in 7 games but just as he might have been coming up to speed off the ACL, he suffered another hammy and was IR'd again In his 4th year, he tore his pec training on his own in the off-season then developed pericarditis in July 2023. Denver had enough and waived him with Non Football Injury. He spent 2023 on the Colts practice squad, but was not signed to a futures contract after the season. Chance of elevating as a receiver? Well, he showed flashes here and there of being able to play in the NFL, but repeated hammies and an ACL make this unlikely unless Beane has directed the equipment staff to cover his locker stall with 4-leaf clovers, hired him a personal leprechaun, and directed one of the training staff to follow him around providing hamstring massage. 3) Justin Shorter, Bills 2023 5th round pick (150 overall). Big guy - 6'4", 229 lb, 33 3/4" arms, 10" hands. 4.55 40-time. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d Spent last season on IR. He was the top receiver prospect in the country in 2018, but somehow never delivered on that promise at the college level. Was benched for dropping passes at Penn State. Made good at Florida, but was limited his Sr year due to hammy injuries. Spent his rookie year with the Bills on IR due to (wait for it) hammy injury. His scouting profile, not that Zierlein is infallible, is not encouraging to me; I translate it as "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". It praises his physicality and toughness and ability to track the ball and high-point a catch, but also notes below-average foot quickness, slow and linear release that make it hard for him to beat press coverage, and loss of momentum in turns. Reading between the lines, I kind of get the sense of a guy who might have let his HS success go to his head a bit? Being on IR meant he could not practice with the team, except for a 3 week "designated for return" interval which saw him returned to IR. 4) Tyrell Shavers, 2023 UDFA from San Diego State after transferring from Alabama to Mississippi to SD State. Big guy - 6'4", 211 lb, 32 3/8" arms, said to run 4.55 40 https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-diego-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-include-jesse-matthews-alama-uluave-and-tyrell-shavers/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrell_Shavers He's a bit of a dark horse to me. He apparently spent 3 seasons at Alabama buried on the depth chart, transferred to Mississippi State, saw some playing time and caught 9 passes for 104 yds, then transferred again. Had 38 passes for 643 yards, and three touchdowns with SD State and was a ST ace. Elevate? Of the preceding 3, I guess I see Shavers as the most likely - he hasn't been injury plagued. Because he was on PS not IR he could practice with the team all last season. The PFN draft report says "Shavers showed a lot of improvement in his game last season, yet he’s unpolished in most aspects of the receiver position. A lack of speed is a major concern" but also "Displays good route discipline, quickly gets out of breaks, and uses his frame to protect the ball. Works across the field to make himself an available target, possesses terrific eye/hand coordination, and comes away with the difficult catch. Tracks the pass in the air, gets vertical, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Easily adjusts to the errant throw." Kind of sounds like a guy who potentially could be coached up, if he's willing to put in the work. Playing speed and burst can be improved by the right training. 5) last dark horse: Bryan Thompson, UDFA from Utah and AZ State. 6'1", 195 lb, 32 5/8" arms, 4.54s 40. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/arizona-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Thompson_(American_football) Didn't do much in college, but the Bills brought him in and quietly kept him on the PS all last season. PFN had some good things to say about him pre-draft: " OK Fellow Bills Fans, that's all I got. Since Beane made a reference to sometimes the guys on the roster can elevate, but they have to prove it (and referenced Terrell Bernard) I thought this might be of interest. Anyone else got any tea to spill on these guys? Edit: listened to Beane's presser again to clarify that he said "young guys on the roster who can ascend" ie, he's not talking about Mack Hollins or Curtis Samuel

@Shaw66, where did he say something that was clear to you that he'd like to have a "true number 1 guy"? He started off the presser saying that in Stefon Diggs, you're talking about a guy who for 4 years filled a #1 role. He went on to say that "we have not filled a number 1 role. We have a group of guys with different skill sets, would we like to add to it at some point, yes, but I'm not sitting here thinking we have a glaring hole" He then went on to say sometimes you have young guys on your roster that you believe can ascend, but they have to prove it, too. A lack of #1 WR is a pretty glaring hole, IMO, if you believe you need one. But, I will admit that I have not made it through the entire interview, so I'd love to be pointed at ~where he said that, unless it was in a theoretical "yeah, we'd run to the podium for Ja'Maar Chase" kind of way? I agree that Beane very deliberately left it open that he wouldn't exclude anything, but I do believe Beane suggested that he wouldn't do it - all the stuff about not wanting to give up next year's #1 pick, not expecting to trade the #2 pick from the Diggs trade etc etc.