Beck Water

I think you make a number of valid points here. Agree on 1 thru 4 and the sum. The elephant in the corner of the room is, that we were missing that "true #1" which Diggs once was, in the 2nd half of the season and playoffs. So the fact that Shakir can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season, doesn't mitigate that gap, because it was a gap down the stretch Add in our earlier decision to let Gabe Davis walk, means we now have a gap followed by a rookie who seems to be one of Beane's "high ceiling/low floor" specials who often take a while to find their feet in the NFL. The above points are the reason why some of us are questioning the "enough on offense to mitigate" premise.

Tua >> Garappolo Your point about the quality of talent the same coaches had to work with leading to better results with the scheme still valid

Why are avocado and olive oil both named for the source of the oil, but baby oil named for the intended recipient? Why do we drive on parkways and park on driveways? "the English language is a wriggling thing, building on the words before it in unpredictable directions."

No, the obvious point is that most teams carry 6 WR on the active roster. If you lose two of those WR to injury (the second past the trade deadline), you have to make additions to the receiving room from somewhere. If your PS WR are too good, they're going to be poached or claimed if they're elevated and waived (as happened with Hopkins). If you'd like to make the argument that 2 PS guys on our or any other roster were gonna contribute more than Brown and Beasley off the coach, Have At It.

We're not debating the factual arm length of alligators, which is indeed, as you note, short. We're pointing out the difference in the common meaning of the term "he alligator armed it"

Valid point IMHO. It's a counter point that Sanders, even towards the end of his career, was a legit receiver and that two of the key pieces (Deebo and Kittle) are the same; Jennings vs Bourne is probably a "push" or advantage Bourne. CMC is a damned Unicorn though, and elevated the talent that offense the moment he walked on the field Dare one say, though, Brock Purdy is a better passer than Jimmy Garappolo - as accurate and careful with the ball, more willing to take the deeper shot and push the ball downfield, as shown by almost 2 yards higher AY/A. In fact wasn't that the "word" that developed on Garappolo, that if you choked off the short stuff he wouldn't take the deep shots so you could stifle his passing game? I bring that up for the benefit of those who think the Bills can force opposing defenses to defend the entire field without a reasonable vertical threat at WR

With respect, @GunnerBill, "Alligator Arms" isn't the usual usage to mean short arms - it's usually used to mean a guy with a low catch % or bad hands. T-rex arms is more common to describe Shakir's arm length. To his credit, he worked very hard in the off-season to improve his catch % and was impressively surehanded last season.

I have read that argument and have read that argument and have read that argument. Franchise tag values and number of players at that position drafted in the early rounds do not concur. I like that other guy better who told me I was wrong to consider that, and 2019 WR with Brown and Beasley would be more comparable (though even there, that was a WR corps that fell way short and left Allen targeting Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco in the playoffs)

No argument at all on the Gross. Impressed by the Mike Williams call-out. I would not have picked that up since his contribution was 142 yds in 2014. I do sense a bit of a "moving bar" since your initial metric was >1000 yd season, which neither Williams or Matthews had. If we're now looking at 900 yd seasons, a couple of guys we have now came close to that, which along with the Mike Williams ROI, may just illustrate the point that "past performance is indeed no guarantee of future results" (Claypool etc) You're right about Benjamin, but IIRC he tore his meniscus during his 2nd game post-trade (the Peterman game against the Chargers). I don't think you addressed my question though: Would you like to argue that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now?

I mean, what Dolphins activities have there been as yet? At this point, it's normally a couple weeks of Phase I OTAs, and rookie minicamp (veterans not invited) Some Holdout Not only that, but "Phase I OTAs" are workouts with S&C coaches and (I think) classroom work Though I think QBs are allowed to throw to receivers now after teams complained the Chiefs were doing an end-around by holding "virtual phase I OTAs" while Mahomes threw to his receivers outside the facilities.

I agree with you that there were better cap (and talent-building) strategies. I think it was clear that Diggs relationship with Allen was bad, and had been bad for some time - certainly by the end of the 2022 season. But usually, when guys want to win and recognize talent, they suck it up and figure out how to work together professionally. I don't know - it may have been a combination of things - declining abilities by objective metrics like GPS tracking of speed and separation; crappy relationship with the QB which didn't allow a "mind meld" that could compensate; organizational headaches - all leading to a decision to sell as high as they could and eat up the cap hit this season, while coping with a huge talent deficit at WR. I think I agree with your fundamental point, but suggest looking at it as "QB plus handful of pricey guys". Usually that's the QB, a DB, an OT, a DLman, and a receiver. Taking a peak around the league, on the Ravens we see 6 players who are nomming up >5% of the cap: Jackson, CB, FS, LT, TE, ILB, with DE Madubuike just below it at 4.31%. Chiefs: Mahomes, G, RT, TE, SS w DE Omenihu just behind them at 4.3%. Dallas: Prescott, DE Lawrence, WR, G, CB with Michael Gallup (5.4% of the cap) on the books as a post-June 1 cut and T just behind at 4.3%. Rams: Stafford, Cooper Kupp, DT Aaron Donald coming off the books post June 1, RT and G with a 2nd G just under at 4.96%. So the Bills, starting the off-season with Allen, Diggs (was about 10%, now 12% dead), Tre White (6.4%), and Von Miller over 5% then with Matt Milano 4.87% and Dion Dawkins 4.5%, didn't have an unusual cap allocation. The problem really wasn't the cap allocation, it was ROI from 3 of the 6 players at the top of the allocation. Diggs at the end of 2023 and in the 2022 and 2023 playoffs, did not provide good ROI. Tre, missing 2 of the last 3 seasons due to injury, ditto. Von Miller, missing effectively half of 2 seasons and playing at a "JAG" level the rest of last season, ditto ditto. Tre' is still young enough by CB standards to have been able to contribute barring repeat injury. Diggs, it wasn't unreasonable to expect good ROI through at least this next season - he signed a 4 year extension at age 28, Miller was the big swing-and-miss by Beane. When you look at the top-paid Edge players, Miller's age at signing sticks out - at least 3 years older than the next closest guy. Beane took a risk offering him that long of a contract with that much guaranteed, and it didn't pay off. Edit: to point out that Miller is also the only FA signing in the Bills top-cap collection. Everyone else was either developed here, or acquired by trade on a moderate contract (Diggs) and extended based on performance on the Bills team.

This is true. On the other hand, some of the 1000+ yd receivers the Bills have had on the roster were arguably worse than what we have now. For example, I listed the Bills 2018 receiving corps in another post. The 1000+ receiver we had, was Kelvin Benjamin. Would you like to make an argument that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now? Yeah, he had a 1000+ yds as a rookie and >900 the next year he played (3rd league year), but his 2017 production was rather puny. Just out of curiousity, not disbelieving you but who was that 1000+ yd in the NFL WR we started 2014 with? Or started 2017 with, for that matter?

@oldmanfan what you say may very well be true - it may also be true of the organization overall. We hear various references from guys who have shown themselves to have accurate inside info or connections to people who do, to Diggs pulling various 'stunts' that 'hurt the team' or saying that Diggs and McDermott don't get along or "Diggs is definitely a problem". I thought it was notable that Diggs "Goodbye" instagram post got very few responses from Bills players - I think Dawkins "until next time" which included a pic of him side-eye'ing Diggs, was the only one. Then there was Allen's carefully crafted response in his OTA presser referring to Diggs as "his brother" followed by a Bills Social Media tiktok of the guys arriving for OTAs featuring the unseen cameraman calling Shakir "Brother" to which Shakir gets in his face and says "Don't Call Me That Again" then Dion turns back from the door and goes after the cameraman for saying "Goodbye, Brother". I took that as distancing themselves emphatically from the kind of "brotherhood" Diggs and Josh had at the end. In contrast, there are people with some connections like Joe Buscaglia who say Diggs is a "misunderstood dude", and that he's very emotionally intelligent and thoughtful and self-aware (how that computes along with Diggs in-game and post-game actions, I don't know) The main point is, trading Diggs was NOT a move that had to be made to release us from "cap trouble" The secondary point is - there are rumors about friction in locker rooms all the time and guys not getting along, but players don't usually get slung out the door for it at the expense of cap space and a deep performance hit to the WR room, unless they break team rules or otherwise behave unprofessionally (slacking on the field). Superficially in terms of numbers, the sensible roster building course would be to draft a guy they could bring on at whatever rate he needs while Diggs is still here for a year, then part ways. So I would tend to believe there may have been actual performance reasons which might, added to "bad locker room chemistry", lead to a premature parting of the ways. For example, the Bills have cold hard facts about Diggs performance in practice and games from GPS tracking. They might know his performance in the 2nd half was hampered by a nagging injury. Perhaps their medical staff recommended a procedure like a back or oblique muscle repair, which Diggs got additional opinions about and decided against, whereupon the Bills decided to swallow their cap hit medicine this year and move on because they believed the juice he brought wasn't gonna be worth the squeeze, by November.

mods, please move to OTW (or annihilate) if considered more appropriate For those who missed it, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker was invited to give the commencement address at Catholic Benedictine College in Atchinson, KS. Here's the transcript: https://www.ncregister.com/news/harrison-butker-speech-at-benedictine He's entitled to his views, although he seems to have crafted it on the "if I haven't offended you yet, just wait a minute" principle. https://apnews.com/article/kansas-city-chiefs-harrison-butker-e00f6ee45955c99ef1e809ec447239e0 The NFL has now disavowed his comments https://wapo.st/4dIi9MK (gift article, should work) "The NFL said Thursday that it disagrees with the views expressed by Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker during a commencement address last weekend, calling itself “steadfast” in its commitment to inclusion." “Harrison Butker gave a speech in his personal capacity,” Jonathan Beane, the NFL’s chief diversity and inclusion officer, said in a written statement provided to The Washington Post and other media outlets. “His views are not those of the NFL as an organization. The NFL is steadfast in our commitment to inclusion, which only makes our league stronger.” Personally, when you're addressing an audience of young women who just worked hard to earn a degree, I think the minimum the commencement speaker could do is to respect that effort. "Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world, but I would venture to guess that the majority of you are most excited about your marriage and the children you will bring into this world" - how disparaging of their efforts and hard work! All I can say is I hope his kicks next season follow his views, and go Wide Right.

Well put. @HappyDays, where did you find the stats about man vs zone coverage %? I don't disbelieve it at all - in fact I thought I heard it elsewhere, Cover1 maybe. And it was a comment I found myself making while watching games, 'they can't get open vs. man'. But I'd love to know how it compares to 2022 and 2021. In 2020 and 2021, I would believe the Bills may have faced one of the lower percentages of man coverage, because we had a lot of guys who could get open against man - in addition to Diggs, we had Brown, Sanders, Beasley, McKenzie I do think we usually had someone open, but it was often a check-down guy who might end up short of the sticks, and Josh still has his allergy to taking the checkdown quickly when that option can lead to good YAC. I also do think that clever scheming could have gotten WR open vs man more often. Dorsey seemed to like plays which combined both zone- and man-beater elements, which meant there might be only 1 or 2 options against man. I think that's why we did some better under Brady, and to me, "what will Brady's offense look like?" is one of the key unanswered questions for the upcoming season. But even with great scheme, it still helps to have someone stretching the field vertically.

Couple of things here just correcting misunderstanding. First, the NFL stats define a deep throw as traveling more than 20 yds past the LOS. So when I, at least, am talking about a vertical threat or a boundary receiver stretching the field, I'm not just talking about 40 yd throws (though for a QB who starts out in shotgun and takes a deep drop, 20 yds past the LOS can become 40 air yards, so there's that). NFL NexGen Stats show that the best QB typically have CAY between 4 and 7.5 yds - so a throw which travels 15 yards past the LOS is a pretty deep throw. That's really what we're talking about - stretching the defense deeper than 5-10 yds past the LOS. Otherwise you get the same effect which makes the last 10 yds of the Red Zone more challenging for offenses to operate in - you just get more bodies piling in to a shorter space. And yes, certainly clever scheming helps get guys open (along with the refs letting pick plays and push offs slide) but only so much. Second, yes, you're correct Gabe Davis got open deep and he didn't have a great 40 time. Speed is only one factor in a WR being a successful vertical threat, and maybe not the most important overall. He has to be able to get a clean release off the line against physical coverage and quickly get past the area where contact is legal. That takes deceptive body language/footwork and strength. Then, he may have to be hand-fighting and holding off the DB all the way down the field. Davis had a strong release and great hand-fighting skills and he could break DB's ankles. Cheers!

With respect, I think you're thinking may be a bit off in several regards. I did a post before the draft where I looked at the number of WR drafted in early rounds and where the most successful WRs were selected. It's definitely not always "the top 2 or 3 WR taken turn out to be the best". So yeah, you're right, out of 7 1st round WR probably only 2 or 3 will be quality NFL players, but which 2 or 3? That's why teams take shots. And no, in terms of % of draft picks who succeed, teams don't have "as good a chance to hit" as they would on the 7th WR drafted in round 1. Statistically it's something like 25-30% success at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd round, falls to more like 20% in rd 3 and by rd 5 it's more like 10-15%.

You know, I really want to believe this. I honestly do. Benjamin was, in fact, a #1 WR in Carolina for 2 seasons, sandwiching a year on IR. And while it wasn't as good, projecting out his first 8 games he might well have finished as their #1 in 2017 with the Ghost of Cam Newton throwing to him. Kerley was actually leading SF in receptions and receiving yards in 2016 with Kaepernick throwing to him. He was suspended then cut half the 2017 season with the Jets and Josh McCowan, but certainly could have called him #3. I think it's fair to say in hindsight, he had nothing left and got suspended for PEDs because he was trying to flog his body through a season. It lasted 1 game here. You may be right. The Curtis Samuel signing was reminiscent of Beasley to me - steady guy who has produced consistently from the slot. I'm not sure who is analogous to Brown, though? The thing is, Diggs did NOT have to go to "get us out" of cap trouble. It would have cost us less cap this year, and at least allowed us to shop at Price Cutter or Aldi.

I don't think HappyDays is being entirely facetious here. I don't want to get into a p*ssing match about what constitutes "throwing downfield" (official NFL stats count it as >20 yds from the LOS) and whether vertical passing wins playoff games. I have been highly puzzled by folks who don't seem to think we need a downfield, vertical threat at WR but who also talk about forcing defenses to cover the entire field. The thing being, if there isn't enough of a downfield, vertical threat to scare the opposing DC, defenses choke down on the short and intermediate stuff. 3.4 yds per attempt moves the chains, but it requires precise and mistake-free football to perambulate the football down the field and score that way. We don't know what Coleman is in the NFL, but some of the film on him in college suggests that he struggles to get open vertically downfield, and is at his best as a "big slot". Since I like sources I'll dish: Cover1 / NFL Draft Profile / Greg Cosell on OBL pre-day 2 : post draft Samuel can get open, true, but in his best season in Carolina he had two 1000+ yd WR playing with him. In Washington, he had Terry McLaurin. It's a lot easier to eat as a slot if you've got a good boundary receiver drawing attention away from you. Samuel has never been a #1 and more than likely, that may be an unrealistic expectation. Similar comments about Shakir and Kincaid - both had good seasons last year, behind Diggs and his 107 receptions for 1183 yards and Gabe Davis with his 45 receptions for 746 yds (mostly deep, 17 y/r on average). Again, it's a different challenge for these guys to get open when they're #2-4 on the WR depth chart vs. without that #1 drawing attention

Piss isn't sterile. #FACTS I was totally gobsmacked when we traded Stefon Diggs. I expect him to be super-motivated to rehab and train his ass off this off season and lay down some good numbers for the Texans instead of visiting Paris for Fashion Week and attending Coachella during OTAs as he did in the 2023 off season. I *think* the WR is better for 2024 than it was for Allen's rookie season but when I walk through it point by point, I wind up wondering if it's wishful thinking: Kelvin Benjamin - 2014 Panthers 1st round pick with 1000+ and 900+ seasons along with two torn ACLs in his medical history and a torn meniscus the previous year. Well-paid and highly Demotivated. Zay Jones - 2017 2nd round pick who had meagre yardage and major hands issues his rookie year but we hoped a torn labrum was responsible and all better now. Jeremy Kerley - 8 year, 5 team journeyman whose best seasons were 827 and 667 yds Andre' Holmes - 8 year, 4 team mostly ST journeyman, best season 693 yards Robert Foster - fast UDFA with limited college play who needed to be cut and signed to the PS to get him to take it seriously Isaiah McKenzie - fast gadget guy who couldn't run routes at the time, claimed off waivers from Denver mid-season It really bothers me that I write the above and feel the need to second guess whether we're really better at this point.

I've already responded a couple times, but this particular post struck me because it explicitly stated what was otherwise implied. Combine measurements Cooper Kupp 6' 2" 204 lb 4.62 40-time (he plays faster) Amon-Ra St Brown 6' 0" 197 lb 4.59 40-time Stefon Diggs 6'1" 195 lb 4.46 40-time Unless you want to extoll a 0.13 or 0.16 sec difference in the Underwear Olympics, they're physically very similar players. They dominate physically not because Diggs is larger or more powerful than Kupp or St Brown, but because of how they use their bodies to juke DBs out of their jocks and break their ankles, the crispness and timing of their routes, their skill at hand-fighting and arm-overs, and their abilities to track the ball and adjust. I would VERY MUCH like the chance to do the experiment as to whether Kupp or St Brown would continue to be as productive on another team, namely OURS. It's entirely theoretical, 'cuz it's not gonna happen but my reaction would be 100% X-rated and unfit for a "family" board. Most of the top WR who have been traded or signed as FA have been similarly productive for their new teams, at least for a year or so. Where they fail to stay productive, it's typically not the new team or system that fails them, but their own bodies (ACLs for Beckham, hammies and MCLs for Hopkins etc). Father Time is undefeated.

I agree with your overall point that Beane has not given the WR position its propers. However, 2022 started the season with Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Khalil Shakir as the developmental rookie, and Jake Kumerow as the ST guy/backup X By the end of the season, it was Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir, with Kumerow and Crowder both on IR and guys getting elevated off the practice squad. Tanner Gentry was seeing meaningful snaps. Now Beane's roster handling can 100% be justly criticized - Hodgins looked more promising than the other PS guys, and Beane, short on healthy CBs, exposed him to waivers knowing his buddy Joe Schoen with the Giants was desperate for WR at that point and would likely snap up a WR he'd helped to scout and draft. So let's understand the signing of Brown and then Beasley to our PS in context, for what it was - signing some backup depth guys to be active on game day in case of injury to the starters, who remained Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir. Viewed in that light, they knew the playbook and Josh had familiarity with them, so it wasn't a Bad Thing and arguably a better thing than just elevating randoms like Dezmon Patmon or Keesean Johnson off PS. If you want to criticize Beane's handling of the WR position from 2022 on, criticize the line-up that started the season - the thought that Davis was ready for an expanded role as the #2 instead of the backup platooning with Brown and then with Sanders; the thought that McKenzie was able to step into being a full time slot.

Von Miller, as pass rusher somewhat agree. He's a good run defender though, and that's all about shared responsibility to maintain gap integrity. Could not disagree more about Milano. Feel that stating his play is about individual skills vs. choreography and teamwork, represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the complexity of a modern zone defense and the choices the LB and slot corner and DB need to make depending upon how they read the play and the routes being run. Every guy on that defense needs to understand not only what his role is on the defensive play as called, but how that role changes based on pre- and post-snap motion and route options and this especially applies to the LBs and the slot corner. Intense teamwork is necessary, especially in McDermott's defense. The defensive players aren't only reading the offensive players, they're reading each other's body language3 - there was a discussion a while back about how Hyde took the wrong angle on one play because another defensive player (think it was Dodson) looked left rather than straight or right, which indicated to Hyde that the other player was set up correctly for covering to his L, so Hyde went R. Meanwhile the RB blew by Dodson to his L. Have also been some in-depth discussions here about how a particular defensive coverage is actually executed (at the college level) and exactly how the defensive responsibilities shift in response to the routes the receivers are actually running. It's very choreographed and very intricate. I'll try to find one.

Tap the brakes is fine for sure. Keep in mind this is a guy who had 42 targets and 3 drops last season - with 15 yd/target average meaning he was the deep target. Just as with Gabe Davis, the low catch % is partly a function of throw-aways over his head and uncatchable balls. As long as his feet work and he gets downfield fast he could have a role (so could Claypool, for that matter) I could be mistaken, but I think he might have his timeline slightly fuzzy and be referring to Shakir, not remembering that the timeline went: Davis walks in FA Curtis Samuel signed Diggs traded

What is an admission? Signing MVS? Nonsense - MVS has something Coleman doesn't, independent of what he may or may not contribute next season, vertical field-stretching speed Yes, he's the Beane prototype of a low-floor, high-ceiling type high draft pick, but that doesn't mean he won't contribute. I think your list is way off. First of all, Diggs is not replaced by Samuel. Samuel would be a closer analogy to replacing Beasley, who had a skill set we've been lacking the last 2 seasons - though Samuel can line up outside more. Samuel is not a #1 WR, never has been, unreasonable to expect him to become one. Last season, Harty was the #4 WR, and Sherfield was active on game day primarily for ST. He was the Kumerow replacement and intended to sub for Davis or Diggs in case of injury. Sherfield wound up playing more offensive snaps either in run centered game plans like DAL and LAC (good blocker), because Davis was injured (MIA and 2 playoff games), or because Diggs was taking himself out. Oh, well, yeah, and because Harty apparently sucked. Sherfield will be replaced by Mack Hollins. Hollins is a stud blocker and has been a ST captain apparently like, everywhere he goes (We're looking to replace a bunch of ST regulars including Siran Neal, Matekavich, Dodson, and Sherfield - so I would give Hollins the edge) Our KR will probably be RB Ty Johnson or that tid-bit of a 6th round CB we drafted (Daequan Hardy) with Coleman as an outside shot if we don't like him at WR I would guess the WR corp at more likely: Coleman MVS/Claypool (I predict in the end, there will be only one) Shakir Samuel Hollins battle between Shorter, Shavers, "the battle of the 2nd round picks" Hamler vs Isabella, Thompson, and this year's UDFAs Johnson and Keys But That's just how I see it I think any "it's going to be tough for him to contribute initially" stuff from Beane and McDermott are just "managing expectations for the rookie" talk, not an indication that Coleman will be inactive.