Beck Water

And I would respectfully disagree. When a former 2nd round pick who racked up >800 yds his first two years is regarded as such a bad actor that he's traded mid-season from a losing team (which then proceeds to win 7 out of 9 for a winning record), then repeats with his new team to the point where he's ordered to stay away from the facility, then barely contributes to his 3rd team offensively - what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable? When a guy who has caught passes from 2 of the best QB in football has never rocked higher than a 52% completion, what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable? As for Hamler, he may be moldable 'cuz he basically only played 1 year, but as far as injuries go, if he didn't have bad luck he'd have no luck at all. Do guys ever turn that around? It kind of seems to me some guys just can't hold up at the NFL level.

Can you list what, in your opinion, constitute the "smart teams" that in your opinion, consistently draft players at high impact positions before they become crippling needs? Thanks

Wow! Wonder why the Panthers didn't jump on that.

Claypool was a 2nd round pick. MVS was a 5th The thing is, while reclaimation does happen in the NFL (everyone who had "Geno Smith age 32 throws 30 TD and QB Seahawks to Playoffs" on their 2022 Bingo card please stand up), it's far more rare than learning that recent past performance predicts future outcome. So while I'd love to see Claypool return to 2020/2021 60 reception, 860 yd form he had with Big Ben, the reality is, he's been a Hot Mess the last 2 seasons I'd love to see MVS crack 60% receptions, but the fact is, he's caught passes from two of the best, most accurate QB in the league and has never cracked 45 receptions, 45 ypg, or 55% catch rate - and that's while seeing the field ~60% of the offensive snaps in all but one of his years. The difference between signing these guys or KJ Hamler (another former 2nd round pick, stifled by repeated injuries) vs a rookie is that the rookie is a blank slate and moldable clay. You don't know what he'll be capable of initially or become capable of. I think that's the difference that disappoints many here.

The thing is, the Bills spent a lot of time on Franklin. My memory is a bit hazy here, but if I recall correctly in addition to attention during the college season and interviews at league-wide events like Senior Bowl, they had him into the facility for a top-30 visit and did a private workout with him. So for whatever reason, the logical conclusion seems to be they didn't like him for some reason; sometimes when a team spends a lot of time on a player, it's not because they really like him, it's because they have questions or a poor first impression and want to see if that improves on more acquaintance. (Reportedly, the Bills thought Allen was too quiet and shy initially at the Senior Bowl but that impression quickly changed when they went to visit him at Wyoming and saw him where he was comfortable) It's not just the Bills, either; every team in the league passed on him in 3 rounds. It was reported he had visits with the Bills, Jets, Browns, Patriots, Panthers, and Broncos, and they all passed 3x before the Broncos took him in the 4th.

LOL

Leaving aside fragility or the lack, what's the Eagles OL, specifically the IOL? Can they run block? Who is their center? They're listing Cam Jurgens, who played C in college and was last year's RG, but has missed time with foot injuries - is he gonna really be able to step up and replace Kelce? Then who are their guards? For that matter, if they were happy with Jordon Mailata at LT what's up with drafting Tyler Steen in the 3rd last year? Interesting that Morgan started out with two ones LOL. Burns was traded to the Giants for a 2nd and a 5th.

I have not deleted or edited any posts with responses in this thread, and yes, I knew your "dumbass" and "dumb" remarks were a response targeted at me. Sorry.not.sorry to bust your "posturing" bubble You appear to devote an excessive level of time and energy to gratuitously insulting and taking shots at people on this board and to have a peculiar fascination with myself, whereas I normally ignore your posts. Consider adding a hobby. I hear stamp and coin collecting are favored by a certain type of obsessive personality; you might consider them as an additional hobby. Please don't take up training animals. I would hate to think you might re-direct your keyboard warrior vituperations at living creatures present in your locale.

The first two para's are all fair points. I agree and have posted, that at this point we may see some potential in the WR group, but thinking it got better needs to be stamped "not proven" in big letters until we see it in action. As far as the "double dipping", though - Beane had a bunch of holes on the team as well as places where he has been plugging in FA, such as DL He also has several late-round or UDFA developmental guys and a couple of former 2nd round FA who have been dogged with injuries. Did we want Beane to pass up the chance to draft Bishop, Carter, Davis, and Van Pran? Or did we want Beane to "double dip" in the late rounds? Perhaps he felt the late-round receivers were not likely to make the team over the guys we already had on the roster?

It's my understanding they both report to Pegula, who has fate control over them both. They both have said things in interviews at various times that indicate this isn't the case, for example that Beane has on occasion done things that McDermott disagreed with and only reluctantly accepted. I doubt anything will persuade you out of an opinion you hold, though.

Um....Kincaid and Diggs were both here in 2023

If DeWayne Carter and Cedric Van Pran turn out to be solid adds to the roster, we'll be taking your statement at face value and saying "yep, Good News!" Two things are possible: 1) Beane is wrong that there was ~ equal talent among the WR drafted at or after our original pick, and the guy(s) who stand out are not our guy 2) Beane is correct and /or Coleman is the pick of the lot No one knows as of yet But I can't shake the sense that the real issue for many here is that Beane failed to trade up into the top group that went with the first 10 picks

This. @HappyDays it echos a concern I've expressed a couple of times, at least once with snapshots of Carolina's roster build and how they prioritized (or didn't) the offense compared to what Beane has done. I don't follow college football enough to understand if it's the same as far as the tendency to draft high ceiling/low floor guys late in the 1st

Just a little note that last season, when the WR corps consisted of rookie Rice, Watson, Valdez-Scantling, and Skyy Moore, Reid did not get 4500 yds out of the WR group.

Wasn't he spoofing that with the cryo chamber during his post-draft visit?

Can't speak for how Allen is thinking about his career in B'lo. Neither can you. But as for GB: Oh boo hoo for poor Aaron. He can't have it both ways....there was a point a few years back, 2019 I think, where ol' A-rod was all smiles and nods because "we finally have a defense". Well, if you want a defense, you need defenders, and with Rodgers contract that means draft 'em. Rodgers started out his career throwing to Jennings (Packers 2006 2nd round pick) who had 3 consecutive 1100+ yd seasons, top 10 and top 5 in the league, with the aging but still capable GB homie Driver putting up 1000 yd seasons right behind him. They drafted Jordy Nelson with their top pick (it was a 2nd rounder) in 2008, who took a couple years to push his way into the GB starting lineup but then developed a pretty legendary connection with Rodgers. 2011 added Randall Cobb in the 2nd and 2014, Davante Adams, who became one of the best WR in the league when playing for GB Did drafting Love in the 1st round piss Rodgers off, sure. Did the Packers spend too many high picks on defense over the years? OK, I can get that argument. Stuck with McCarthy too long? I'm listening. Underinvest in WR after moving on from Adams? Yes, certainly, although some of the same room Rodgers had in 2022 were looking pretty good with Love last season, so perhaps Rodgers was part of the problem. But let's not re-write history to act as though the Packers didn't provide Rodgers with WR talent the first decade of his career. Jennings, Driver, Nelson then Nelson, Adams, Cobb (not necessarily in that order) were two pretty potent WR rooms. And, as pointed out above, at the point where Nelson moved on from GB, Rodgers still had Adams and the thing Rodgers himself took shots at was the team's lack of D Completely agree with this point. There may be enough in the WR room. Some of us are skeptical. Time will tell. But to anoint the room at this point as having gotten better? Nah. No basis for that.

Good on you for the moxie to come here and acknowledge that you were mistaken

In general for Diggs 4 years here, no, it's not a controversial claim. I think it might be a controversial claim for the second half of last season. And I asked if you had them, because you seem so very confident in your statements in the face of observations like Sneed;s [EDIT: this was actually Justin Reid's comment] "we didn't double him"; Sauce on Shakir in the clip linked above; Cosell's comments. If I could readily find them myself, I woudn't ask. I daresay some here will "shoot the messenger" but while he didn't provide stats on who was covering him and how, the somewhat controversial Tim Graham delved into a bunch of stuff about depth of target etc here https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5174435/2024/01/03/stefon-diggs-buffalo-bills-snap-counts-targets-analysis/ Sal Maiorana pointed out Diggs catch rates against top corners were abysmal at the end of the season

I've been trying to stay out of this, but this deserves mention 1) for those who don't follow jersey numbers, in the film clip above, that was Sauce Gardner covering Shakir. Not sure who was covering Diggs, believe a LB 2) I don't have data on how often receivers were double covered and whether it was the #1 or #2 CB covering them last season - do you? I would love to see those data if so 3) no doubt at all that Diggs drew the #1 CB who often had help for much of his 4 years in B'lo. The point of contention is: was that true at the end of the 2022 season, and even more so was it true specifically at the end of 2023? Say, week -see point 1 above, this was Nov 19 Jets game, Sauce was on Shakir -in the KC game Dec 10, Sneed commented in a response to Diggs interview saying he didn't contribute because he was being doubled, by saying "funny thing is we didn't double him". Sneed was def. covering Diggs part of the time, not sure he was shadowing him, seems like he was covering other receivers at times. Diggs was 4 of 11 in that game. 4) NFL flims senior producer Greg Cosell, who has forgotten more about football than almost everyone here knows, made the comment that Diggs wasn't the Bills #1 at the end of last season and broke down a film clip where he referred to Khalil Shakir as "the new #1" TL;DR I'm not sure it's true that Diggs was shadowed, drew the #1 CB, or was doubled with a safety over the top all that much by the end of last season. These ought to be verifiable facts, but I don't have a source for these data - do you? Caveat: the point could be made that we didn't have a lot of passing game by the end of last season, either.

Tyler Bass. He went from Bass-O-Matic to Bass-Turd in one season. Runner up: Chase Claypool. If he could return to the form he had his first 2 seasons with Pitts, that would be big,

This is a point worth delving into. I'd love to see some data on how Diggs was covered the last 2 seasons, especially in the 2nd half of the year and the playoffs. There's no question in 2020 and 2021 Diggs drew double coverage and sometimes more.

The phrase "manage expectations" in the business world refers to the expectations of others that the writer is trying to manage. Saying "Beane has been trying to manage expectations" is not referring to Beane's expectations. It's the expectations of people listening to his interview - the fans - I'm talking about. In interviews since OTAs, Beane is clearly trying to temper the Coleman Hype Train that has left Highmark station and gathered speed, driven in part by the PR apparatus of the organization he works for (as shown by the $40 shirt @BADOLBILZ observed), in the probably vain hope that the fans won't toss around the "bust" word if Coleman doesn't produce 4-5 R/G for 50 Y/G right out the gate. Whether that's on general principal, or whether it's because having seen Coleman in the building trying to run their plays he now knows it's gonna be a project, can't tell ya. Since you ask, my opinion of Beane's personal expectations for how much Coleman will play: I think Beane expects him to play A Lot. Beane has influence on the amount of playing time Coleman will see in the form of the alternatives he signs at WR and thus makes available to the coaches. The WR cupboard is pretty bare, so the pressure is "on" the coaches to put Coleman out on the field, ready or not. Beane also knows that overall, his "hit rate" on players drafted in the 1st 2 rounds making a solid contribution their rookie year is a bit over 50%, even when the player develops into a solid contributor by year 2 or 3. That's about league average or a little less, but for a different reason. For many teams, it's because the guy can't adjust to play at the NFL level or doesn't have his head in the right place once he Gets Paid. For Beane, it's because he tries to compensate for late draft position by gambling on high-ceiling low-floor kind of guys, guys like Rousseau or Coleman who have lots of physical talent but actually rather limited football playing experience.

Purple Drank https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10038265-former-raiders-qb-jamarcus-russell-says-he-used-codeine-syrup-to-deal-with-injuries Snap

Beane didn't "more or less" say Coleman was going to be the X, he flat out said we see him as our X. However, as OTAs progress and the Coleman hype train gathers momentum, it's been notable that Beane has been trying to "manage expectations", talking about how young he is (I had Edmunds flashbacks), "he’s going to have bumps in the road. He’s a rookie, and I think we all need to understand that." I believe he's also said some stuff about having other guys in the room who can do it if the rookies can't right away. I think there are two separate issues perhaps being conflated a bit here. One is Beane/McDermott's expectations: yes, they expect Coleman to play, but Beane is also giving off vibes he's not going out there for a lion's share of the snaps no matter what, he's got to master the playbook and earn his playing time. I don't think he's hyping him as Diggs successor. Instead Brady is talking about spreading the ball around. The other is the Coleman Hype Train. We have an off season devoid of significant free agent moves, where the team's biggest offensive weapon for the last 4 years (outside QB) got unceremoniously traded and not clearly replaced. Then we have our top draft pick turn out to be a Goldmine for sound bites. So yeah, the Biols PR is running with him and he's getting hyped up a bunch in the press. Maybe he's getting up-sold as Diggs successor, but I don't hear that as coming from Beane or McDermott. From the Bills PR side of things, I think it's more he's enormously personable and a great interview and Beane didn't give them much of anyone else to talk about. TL;DR two separate issues here: 1) How Beane and McDermott see Coleman's contributions year one and how they present him to the press 2) How the Bills PR machine and press are hyping him up

The 5th year option for a WR can be a valuable tool, especially with a player who may be slower to develop so the team isn't quite ready to bet a market rate 2nd contract on him going into his 4th season. But, what people who whinge about it aren't considering, is the cost-controlled contracts of the players we were able to draft because of the trade- backs. We didn't have a 3rd round pick, and we had multiple 6th round picks. We got a 3rd round pick, and we moved way up in the 5th. With those picks, we drafted DT DeWayne Carter and C Sedrick Van Pran. If either of those guys work out for us long-term, that value needs to be factored in.