Beck Water

I don't think the board over-rates the Beasley the Bills saw in 2020. I think that's Cold Hard Football Facts supportable by data. There's this stat, "receiving success %", which is not some frankenstat you need a PhD in computer science to really understand. It's simply how often the receiver gains 40% of the yards required on 1D, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down, divided by # targets. In 2020, Beasley was 7th in the league there. He and Allen had learned to be on the same page, Josh had learned to throw with anticipation, Josh trusted him, and he fought for every blade of grass. In 2021, he fell off in both 1D and in success % and that's one reason the Bills moved on. If good playoff WR is your criterion, we ought to really miss Gabe Davis. If by "several", you mean we were starting the Little Sisters of the Poor and a one-winged chicken at LB, yeah. (edit: credit to @NewEra I think for that LSotP phrase) Um Wait Wat?

People seem to be focused on the W/L prediction instead of the position by position analysis. I thought that latter was pretty fair. They pointed out that at skill positions, we lost our two productive WR, that Shakir and Kincaid and Cook were still with the team and we had added Samuel and a 2nd round pick (implication: no stars). They pointed out the loss of Morse on the OL, and I thought they could have made more of that since he was the C and McGovern is totally unproven at C. They made mention of the fact that the OL had a league-low in sacks and a running QB is part of that. They pointed out the turnover in the defensive backfield, but also that Hyde and Poyer actually allowed quite high ratings against them while Rapp and Edwards were both lower in QB rating against, and that we'd been playing without White anyway while Douglas and Benford had been pretty durn good. They captured the fact that our sack leader departed, we really need more from Rousseau, and we're counting on The Return Of the Real Von Miller. I thought they glossed over the weakness at kicker, and didn't comment on DL which is core to McDermott's defensive concepts. Overall fair assessment of the roster IMHO. I don't GAF about the W-L predictions since they're typically projecting last year's performance into the future.

I believe if you put the 2020 version of Diggs and the 2020 version of Beasley on the field in 2023, they would still be a top receiver pairing. It's also kind of hard to argue that the other top WR in 2020 (Kelce, Hopkins, Adams, Ridley) wouldn't still be dominant as their 2020 selves in 2023.

So it's kind of a trick statement. It raises the question "what do you mean by a top 3 WR corps?" If you mean, "had the most top producers at WR": Diggs was the top WR in the league in 2020. Top in targets, receptions, yards; second to Davonte Adams and Cole Beasley for catch % in the top 32 WR. Beasley was just outside the top-20 for yards and receptions - 23 and 21 I think. One can make an argument for KC that year, with Kelce and Hill, beiong the best receiving corps, then the Bills, then Minn with Jefferson and Theilen. Carolina with DJ Moore and Chosen would be up there, and Tenn with AJ Brown and Corey Davis would be in the mix. If by "top 3 receiving corps" you mean "overall talent in the 3-4 receivers on the field", then "Nah". But there really weren't any dominant Chase-Higgins-Boyd trios that season.

Not even on the side of the highway. Blocking a lane on the freewayl

Absolutely no disagreement about the need to surround a top passing QB with top receiving talent and a top pass protecting OL I *think* that Brady emphasized the run so much last year, especially for a couple of games (Cowboys and Chargers, which skewed the overall stats) - not because he intends the Bills to be a "run first" team but because Allen injured his shoulder worse than they wanted anyone to know, and it was getting re-aggrevated to the point that it was seriously affecting his passing motion. So they tried to give him "rest in place" games. But that could just be wishful thinking on my part. Facts, after Brady took over we had 5 games (including WC playoff) where we had more run plays than pass plays, 3 games where we had more pass plays than run plays, and the KC division loss was even. So make of that what you will. It's really the key unanswered question of the Bills 2024 season, "what exactly are Brady's intentions for the offense, and will he be able to fulfil them with the guys he has in the room?" PS it's a nit, but IMHO it's selling Samuel way short to call him a "gadget guy". While he can execute gadget plays and line up in the backfield, he is a capable slot receiver and can run routes from all the positions. He gets 600+ yds routinely when healthy, which is way more than the "gadget guy" manages.

I think that Jones has the pocket awareness of a stoned snail. And that's a problem. To be fair, Isaiah Hodgins wasn't their best receiver in 2022, and they grabbed him up because Sterling Shepard, Wan'dale Robinson, and finally Darius Slayton (who is their best receiver) was playing hurt. However and to your point, when the team's best receiver is 26 and has never had more than 50 receptions or exceeded 800 receiving yards, that is a problem. I can't. Why can you "live with" a drop off in protecting the only true and demonstrated "freakazoid" on the offense and one of the best players on the team? The Bills didn't have the fewest sacks in the league because their OL is brilliant and can afford Allen great protection if they drop off a bit, they had the fewest sacks because of Allen's ability to extend the play, move out of trouble, and scramble

It's a fair point. I'd counter that prior to his injury, DaQuan Jones was averaging just a scootch over 50% of the snaps (rising to 55% and 60% in the playoffs) If you look it up it says 43% but that's silliness arising from him going down with injury early in a game. Ed Oliver on the other hand has been a rising tide, with as many as 80-90% of the snaps in some games. Overall 72% last season and I think they'd like it to be a bit lower, they just ran out of quality bodies when Phillips went down. Personally, I think there's an argument to be made for the starter/rotational player with one guy getting 70-80% of the snaps and his backup giving him breathers, but McDermott has pretty much made it clear he will ride-or-die with a DL rotation as HC, and the impacts that has on cap and draft strategy - and this is one area where I would bet lunch money that McDermott influences draft strategy heavily. The point I was trying to make was not to label you as a teeth gnasher, but that as fans, our viewpoint about the wisdom or un-wisdom of a pick really depends upon how the player works out (and I include myself in this, just to be clear). Right after the draft, there are always "that guy was a reach" and "WTF, Beane, we need a MLB and the one thing that guy isn't projected as is just that". Then, in a couple years, if the player bombs with us, some are happy to thump their manly bosoms and say "I told you all that was a waste of a pick with no chance to work out here" and if he succeeds against predictions, you are a welcome exception but others will post their retraction in fine print on page 44 FWIW Lance Zierlein projected DeWayne as a 4th-5th round pick, but also as the 11th best DT in the draft (and he was the 8 DT drafted), so Zierlein would agree with you on the "reach". I'm not sure how much that means, as every year even the better draft pundits grade some players higher and others lower than the teams.

All McDermott's DTs are "rotational guys" I'm gonna sound like a gol durn broken record, but there was much ranting and wailing and gnashing of teeth about Beane drafting Terrel Bernard in Rd 3 - a guy who was too small and light and projected out as a weak side LB in the NFL. Well, so far the evidence says that it may have been a good pick (and may also be an example of drafting to fill an essential position before it's a desperate need), since he and Tre Edmunds overlapped a year. Even more wailing and gnashing about Dorian Williams last season, if he works out this season Beane looks smart and look, drafting before it's a desperate hole. Ditto DeWayne Carter - we drafted him while he has a year to develop. Of course, if he doesn't work out, like Cody Ford didn't work out on OL and Zack Moss didn't work out here at RB, then Beane is dumb.

I get it people have hopes for Shorter and there's also Tyrell Shavers and another UDFA Bryan Thompson who the Bills liked enough to hang on to after a season on PS. I do think the "Beane Should Have Double Dipped" folks were thinking of late 2nd through early 5th round

And I would respectfully disagree. When a former 2nd round pick who racked up >800 yds his first two years is regarded as such a bad actor that he's traded mid-season from a losing team (which then proceeds to win 7 out of 9 for a winning record), then repeats with his new team to the point where he's ordered to stay away from the facility, then barely contributes to his 3rd team offensively - what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable? When a guy who has caught passes from 2 of the best QB in football has never rocked higher than a 52% completion, what exactly leads you to regard that as moldable? As for Hamler, he may be moldable 'cuz he basically only played 1 year, but as far as injuries go, if he didn't have bad luck he'd have no luck at all. Do guys ever turn that around? It kind of seems to me some guys just can't hold up at the NFL level.

Can you list what, in your opinion, constitute the "smart teams" that in your opinion, consistently draft players at high impact positions before they become crippling needs? Thanks

Wow! Wonder why the Panthers didn't jump on that.

Claypool was a 2nd round pick. MVS was a 5th The thing is, while reclaimation does happen in the NFL (everyone who had "Geno Smith age 32 throws 30 TD and QB Seahawks to Playoffs" on their 2022 Bingo card please stand up), it's far more rare than learning that recent past performance predicts future outcome. So while I'd love to see Claypool return to 2020/2021 60 reception, 860 yd form he had with Big Ben, the reality is, he's been a Hot Mess the last 2 seasons I'd love to see MVS crack 60% receptions, but the fact is, he's caught passes from two of the best, most accurate QB in the league and has never cracked 45 receptions, 45 ypg, or 55% catch rate - and that's while seeing the field ~60% of the offensive snaps in all but one of his years. The difference between signing these guys or KJ Hamler (another former 2nd round pick, stifled by repeated injuries) vs a rookie is that the rookie is a blank slate and moldable clay. You don't know what he'll be capable of initially or become capable of. I think that's the difference that disappoints many here.

The thing is, the Bills spent a lot of time on Franklin. My memory is a bit hazy here, but if I recall correctly in addition to attention during the college season and interviews at league-wide events like Senior Bowl, they had him into the facility for a top-30 visit and did a private workout with him. So for whatever reason, the logical conclusion seems to be they didn't like him for some reason; sometimes when a team spends a lot of time on a player, it's not because they really like him, it's because they have questions or a poor first impression and want to see if that improves on more acquaintance. (Reportedly, the Bills thought Allen was too quiet and shy initially at the Senior Bowl but that impression quickly changed when they went to visit him at Wyoming and saw him where he was comfortable) It's not just the Bills, either; every team in the league passed on him in 3 rounds. It was reported he had visits with the Bills, Jets, Browns, Patriots, Panthers, and Broncos, and they all passed 3x before the Broncos took him in the 4th.

LOL

Leaving aside fragility or the lack, what's the Eagles OL, specifically the IOL? Can they run block? Who is their center? They're listing Cam Jurgens, who played C in college and was last year's RG, but has missed time with foot injuries - is he gonna really be able to step up and replace Kelce? Then who are their guards? For that matter, if they were happy with Jordon Mailata at LT what's up with drafting Tyler Steen in the 3rd last year? Interesting that Morgan started out with two ones LOL. Burns was traded to the Giants for a 2nd and a 5th.

I have not deleted or edited any posts with responses in this thread, and yes, I knew your "dumbass" and "dumb" remarks were a response targeted at me. Sorry.not.sorry to bust your "posturing" bubble You appear to devote an excessive level of time and energy to gratuitously insulting and taking shots at people on this board and to have a peculiar fascination with myself, whereas I normally ignore your posts. Consider adding a hobby. I hear stamp and coin collecting are favored by a certain type of obsessive personality; you might consider them as an additional hobby. Please don't take up training animals. I would hate to think you might re-direct your keyboard warrior vituperations at living creatures present in your locale.

The first two para's are all fair points. I agree and have posted, that at this point we may see some potential in the WR group, but thinking it got better needs to be stamped "not proven" in big letters until we see it in action. As far as the "double dipping", though - Beane had a bunch of holes on the team as well as places where he has been plugging in FA, such as DL He also has several late-round or UDFA developmental guys and a couple of former 2nd round FA who have been dogged with injuries. Did we want Beane to pass up the chance to draft Bishop, Carter, Davis, and Van Pran? Or did we want Beane to "double dip" in the late rounds? Perhaps he felt the late-round receivers were not likely to make the team over the guys we already had on the roster?

It's my understanding they both report to Pegula, who has fate control over them both. They both have said things in interviews at various times that indicate this isn't the case, for example that Beane has on occasion done things that McDermott disagreed with and only reluctantly accepted. I doubt anything will persuade you out of an opinion you hold, though.

Um....Kincaid and Diggs were both here in 2023

If DeWayne Carter and Cedric Van Pran turn out to be solid adds to the roster, we'll be taking your statement at face value and saying "yep, Good News!" Two things are possible: 1) Beane is wrong that there was ~ equal talent among the WR drafted at or after our original pick, and the guy(s) who stand out are not our guy 2) Beane is correct and /or Coleman is the pick of the lot No one knows as of yet But I can't shake the sense that the real issue for many here is that Beane failed to trade up into the top group that went with the first 10 picks

This. @HappyDays it echos a concern I've expressed a couple of times, at least once with snapshots of Carolina's roster build and how they prioritized (or didn't) the offense compared to what Beane has done. I don't follow college football enough to understand if it's the same as far as the tendency to draft high ceiling/low floor guys late in the 1st

Just a little note that last season, when the WR corps consisted of rookie Rice, Watson, Valdez-Scantling, and Skyy Moore, Reid did not get 4500 yds out of the WR group.

Wasn't he spoofing that with the cryo chamber during his post-draft visit?