Beck Water

It just seems pretty improbable. The success rate of a 2 point conversion is between 40 and 55%. Assuming the success of 2 2 point conversions are independent, that would be what, between 20% and 36%?

I thought making it a 9 point game was the way

OK, so the idea is if they converted the 2 pointer, scored another TD, AND converted another 2 pointer it would be a tie game?

Can someone explain to me why Detroit went for 2 there? If they got 2 it would have been 23-15, still a 2 score game?

Does anyone else experience Cris Collinsworth voice like a cheese grater to the eardrums? Sheesh.

You quote M L-J on that that large number of passes within 5 yards of the LOS like it's a bad thing? The Bills are 2nd in the league for Completed Air Yards so far this season - right behind the Ravens and ahead of the Lions, Buccaneers, and Chiefs. The fact that 4 of those 5 teams are 4 of the 5 teams with 7 or more wins at this point in the season, suggests that it's very good company. Advanced stats are only available on sources I can access from 2018 on, but it's important to note that Tom Brady lived on YAC and will go to the HOF on YAC. Of course, then the occasional deep bomb which drew a DPI and got them deep into their opponents territory was always a thing, but the ball went down the field on a diet of short passes over the middle to Welker and Edelman who made guys miss and took an extra 4-5 yds to bring down, or Gronkowski who knocked guys over for an extra 4-5 yds. So those 3-4 yd passes consistently put them in 2nd and 2, 2nd and 3 and were gone before the pressure got there. Mahomes has been able to do a similar thing the previous 3 seasons, and this season to date. 58% of his yards, passes within 5 yards of the LOS followed by 6 yds RAC. This represents a shift in Allen's game, since for a winning QB he's been scant on YAC. Between 2019-2023 only 41% of his passing yards YAC. But IMO, it's a positive shift, since it means he's "taking what's given" and not trying to force the ball in to a double- or triple-covered receiver. Players are drafted and acquired based on what they've been able to produce historically. What's that they say about the stock market, "past earnings no guarantee of future performance" or something like that? Based on past performance, Samuel was a solid bet with an injury-ridden downside. It looks as though we caught the downside. It happens (see Miller, Von)

I don't know, you tell me. Why does this feel like 2022 to you, all over again?

Today is the day for giving players a designation Out - Doubtful - Questionable - -- When a player has DNP with an injury all 3 days, the league would, er, question if the team labeled them "Questionable"

If it's a partially torn ligament, he would be wearing a brace. Ligaments heal slowly, and the slightest bend the wrong way will re-tear the healing in progress and reset the healing clock. Source: have had partially torn ligaments.

He's got us playing them in the Superbowl. Let the man have his dreams.

The announcers conveniently left unmentioned that there was some pretty blatant offensive holding on that play as well.

Burrows to Chase, Who would have predicted that?

They really are, but the Ravens D is doing some dumb *****, like Humphries face mask and I thought they got away with a DPI

Yeah, I thought that was a legal hit. The defender is supposed to violate the laws of physics when the ball is released I guess.

I thought so but the refs disagree

Ravens got away with a facemask there, but I like the aggressive pressure. None of this "prevent" D crap.

LOL their DBs are playing "Dazed and Confused" on repeat. They don't intend to leave him wide open

Nah

LJax Saved by the Ground

Play action seems to be effectively confusing the Birdies.

RAC yards count as passing yards. Way it's always been.

WTF was that from Tucker? Cincy still in the lead, who woulda thunk. If the Poebird D shows up for a 2nd drive they got a good chance, if they let the Bengals carve them up for 5 minutes, eh.

They better set off the alarms and wake up their defense then, because Burrow is slicing them up like an electric knife through hot butter. 151 yds for Chase. Barring a pick-6, Poe-Birds gotta get their offense on the field in order to tie the game, and they gotta tie it before they can win it. Lamar Jackson sprinting backwards extensively not an effective ball moving strategy, either.

They'd better get on it then. Lamar playing at 0.5x speed, Trey Hendrickson rushing at 2x speed

That is true about Henry, and while I'd like to argue that previously the Ravens DID have Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, they aren't in the same "weight class" as Henry; and 30 year old Henry is so far, looking as though he found the Fountain of Youth to return to his 2019/2020 prime. 1000+ yards after 9 games is ridiculous, especially when he's only playing 50-60% of the snaps per game. So I have to say you've got a point.