Beck Water
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Posts posted by Beck Water
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3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:
First of all, if you like good writing, good journalism, and a modern perspective on analytics... but don't like paying for it you should bookmark and regularly visit The Ringer. This is Bill Simmons' newest sports and pop culture website and the successor to the now-defunct "Grantland." As I said, it's free.
Today's edition had an excellent article that specifically addressed the Indy/Matt Ryan situation but more broadly addressed the continued ascendency of the mobile NFL quarterback.
The Simple Math Behind the Colts’ Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger:
Benching Matt Ryan isn’t about trying to find a better passer—it’s about trying to find a better runner. Indianapolis looks poised to show us the true value of a quarterback who can escape pressure and scramble.
"This is related to, but not completely the same as, the league’s move toward mobile quarterbacks in the past decade. After spending the 2000s chasing cerebral, statuesque quarterbacks in the Peyton Manning–Tom Brady mold, the NFL started to find competitive edges with dual-threat quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, and expanded on those edges with Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and others. In 2022, it’s known that the league’s elite quarterbacks—Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen—can beat you with their arms, no problem. But if you somehow manage to quiet them in the air, they’ll just beat you with their legs instead." .
"Consider a quarterback with little to no scramble ability at all. Quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, and Matt Ryan. When they are pressured, they are almost certainly not going to try to break the pocket. Instead, they’ll throw the ball away or take a sack—or attempt a pass, but one that is far more likely to be inaccurate. No matter what, it’s a win for the defense, and we can see it in the performance of these stationary passers. With pressure, Brady falls from 17th in EPA per dropback to 31st; Garoppolo from third to 32nd. (Houston QB Davis Mills weirdly goes from 33rd in EPA per dropback without pressure to 12th with pressure. Don’t ask me what’s going on there. I have no idea.) But most importantly for our conversation today: Matt Ryan falls from 11th to 33rd."
There's some additional discussion of case studies like Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones and then some analytics thrown in for good measure.
It's a pretty good read.
References this tweet by PFF'er Timo Riske (but it's actual data, not interpretation by dudes in India)
Interesting insights on what each QB is most likely to do under various situations
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6 hours ago, transient said:
Mac Jones is a little B word who squealed like a pig when he sprained his ankle. If he keeps this punk ***** up he's going to get straight up murdered by a pissed off defensive lineman one day and everyone will stand around saying "that's a shame".
I'd say that right now: "That's a Shame (tm)"
11 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:Still a bad throw and still karma for trying to kick a guy in the balls
That's how I see it. The Safety was positioned to play robber, he was in front of the WR, he was tracking the ball, and he was motivated to high-point that sucka
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Just listened to Frazier's press conference.
To be honest, he sounds more concerned about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers than he did about Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I hope Frazier won't be a "prisoner of his past". While Frazier was DC and then HC of the Vikings, Rodgers and the Packers pretty much stole his lunch money and beat him up on a regular basis (4-10-1 record). This is not the same team, nor is Aaron Rodgers the same QB
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4 hours ago, Warcodered said:
Who was it who wanted Turkish Delight?
LOL Cook choosing Skittles
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FOX Sports NFL has a sense of humor, who knew?
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6 minutes ago, Augie said:
I don’t gamble, but I’d wager on that. I think it’s almost inevitable, actually.
Fair enough.
My point was you can strip out all the opinions and the reasons for doing or not doing something.
The bottom line is: Rodgers has new WR who he finger-points publicly as making mistakes in games - but there is something he could have voluntarily done to help them develop and get on the same page with him (participate in OTAs and throw with them off season), and apparently he did not do it.
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43 minutes ago, Augie said:
Not to mention, Josh and Mahomes will be quick to restructure to help the team when need be. They will also be available to work with teammates in the offseason in various locales to get better (as has actually happened already). They are about the team, and winning.
Rodgers is a smug %$^&# and all about himself. He was too self-important to work with the young guys he’s now complaining about being unprepared. Instead, he spent the offseason doing psychedelics to become a better lover. WTF?
I dunno if Allen and Mahomes will restructure to help the team. A lot of team guys take the viewpoint "team is team, but business is business." Also dunno about Rodgers motives for not working with the team.
But it's reliably reported that both Allen and Mahomes worked with teammates in the off-season, and it's also reported that Aaron Rodgers did not, and in fact only showed up for "mandatory" OTAs. So he did pass up (pun intended) some personal actions and accountabilities that might have helped him teach his new WR how he wants them to run routes, and work with them on what body language he needs from them (assuming GB has option routes as we do)
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16 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:
Is it really finger pointing when you don't name a position group, let alone an individual player?
Yes, I think it is. You aren't finger pointing at a particular player, true.
But do you really think Rodgers is including himself with those players who are making mistakes and shouldn't be playing? I don't. He's pointing at his OL and his skill players. He made that pretty clear later on in the interview.
YMMV
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
lmfao ok. Good synopsis.
Some good, some bad discussed here.
Bottom line: Chris is not in sync with you, and thinks Aaron has room to improve.
"Settle your ***** feet and throw the ball!"
Dobbs drop on 3rd down:
"Protection was perfect..why did we not let Sammy Watkins have a chance to make a play down the field? He's wide open. OK, Dobbs is open...and then you throw the ball low and then yell at the sideline and LaFleur "what the ***** are we doing?" I don't know, what the ***** are you doing?"
14 minutes ago, The Wiz said:
TIL what "boofing" is. Never say TBD isn't educational.
PS 🤣
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7 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:
I know it's in vogue to criticize A A Ron, but I think what he said here is fine.
Constructive criticism can be a good thing. Do you want all your leaders to blow smoke up your ass and tell you that you're doing a great job when you're clearly not?
There's a lot of real estate between constructive criticism in private, and finger-pointing on the Pat McAfee show.
There's also a difference between using "we made a lot of mistakes" in a way that clearly indicates "starts with me, *I* need to look in the mirror and see what else *I* can contribute or whether *I* can do something different, now what can *you* do?" vs using "we made a lot of mistakes" in a context that clearly means "those other guys made a lot of mistakes and maybe they shouldn't be playing"
IMHO, when you take the window dressing off, that amounts to throwing your teammates under the bus in public and it's not pretty
Now it's possible that there is absolutely no aspect of his play that Aaron Rodgers could possibly look at and improve, but I doubt it.
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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
To be clear- I was responding to someone who said Rodgers had been playing 'sub replacement level' football. I don't particularly care about how he sleeps at night.
To be clear - you were responding to me. I said:
"I guess he can soothe himself with those stats as he falls asleep at night.
What can he do that's more?"
Your response is "with an oline in flux and the receivers he's working with? Not much IMO"
That appears to be Rodger's conclusion as well. Thus my comment that you and he appear to be in harmony.
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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
With an oline in flux and the receivers he's working with? Not much imo.
You are in perfect harmony with Aaron then.
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8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Rodgers is completing 67% of his passes with 11tds and 3ints
I guess he can soothe himself with those stats as he falls asleep at night.
What can he do that's more?
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50 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
What do you think is wrong with that? Sounds like he's holding himself and everyone else accountable.
If Josh Allen came out after a loss and said "we're committing too many mental mistakes" I would have no problem with that.
What I'm used to hearing with Josh Allen is "we have to play better...starting with me" and a good sprinkling of "I".
Aaron talks about players taking ownership of their preparation, owning their mistakes.... he talks about "we"...maybe I missed it but I didn't hear any talk about "I", about what he has to do differently.
Again, could just be me, but I didn't hear that. He also seemed very detached, almost disinterested.
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29 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Hey it's "still kind of a free country." and Aaron will treat his fans like ***** if he wants. 🙄
"We have had some success in prime time games lately....we're the underdog which is a new spot for us" (to my eyes, both said with a "I know better" smirk)
AJ Hawk: "what was Washington doing...I give them credit defensively, what were they doing to give you a tough time for your offense?"
Rodgers: "Nothing"
goes on to say that Washington has good players but "We made so many mental errors, so many mental mistakes...we're not used to playing like that". Says that every week they have double-digit errors.
I didn't once hear him use the word "I" in a context of taking responsibility for the loss. It came across to me as detached and disinterested.
And again, maybe just to my ears, but I thought he threw his OL and his WR under the bus.
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15 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:
Aaron is indicating that his teammates are making too many mistakes and those that are should be benched for others.
1) if he didn’t monopolize their salary cap .. perhaps they could have a more talented roster perhaps who made less mistakes.
2) He comes off as a “you guys” person .. hard to want to give all you have for a guy like that. In contrast Pat and Josh are more “us guys”.
3) this should be an internal discussion. Now the team will be scrutinized to determine if people can figure out who Aaron is talking about. A total needless distraction.
4) Aaron has been bad this year .. look in the mirror first.
So happy we have Josh
Pat McAffee show -1:49 in
Now I don't want to misquote or exaggerate, but I THINK he just referred to fans ("the Green Bay faithful" who are upset with the Green Bay Team and Rodger performance to date as "bitter and angry, wanting to wallow in it for a while like pigs wallowing in *****". Judge for yourself - when the show wraps and I can bookmark a time I'll try to loop back with a more precise time stamp
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Pat McAfee has the starting segment of today's show ROASTING one of his guys who was "All in" for the Patriots Beat Down last night: "OH NO!"
It's the first Couple minutes. Def. check it out, it's "Chicken Soup" (or maybe Mac-aroni Zappe Zuppa?) for the Bills Fans Soul.
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2 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
Bit worried we will come out flat this week. We did last year after the bye— almost blew the game to an awful Dolphins team and then did lose to Jax, after the bye.
That was Then. This is Now.
But Time will Tell.
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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:
Hahaha
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22 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:
I almost feel bad for Rodgers. This loss is going to be ugly
"I want your ugly, I want your disease. I want your everything as long as it's free"
-Lady Gaga
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2 minutes ago, RangerDave said:
I'm pretty sure my wife lobbied Congress to get this....
Are she and @muppy acquainted?
Have they been seen at the same time in different rooms?
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4 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:
I thought Fields played his best game last night, but he is not a good player right now. Hes got a pretty good arm, but lacks touch and his footwork is not good. Hes fast and a good runner, I think he could be a serviceable guy, but right now, not even close
It's interesting.
His "clock" is definitely not moving at NFL speed. He needs to be coached to throw the ball OOB and move on to second or third down. But that's been said of other young QB (Josh for example) and they learned over time.
The thing that bothered me watching Fields is that he never looks like he's having a good time. He gets hit and he winces and hauls himself to his feet slowly like he can't take too many more of those. He doesn't seem to have that "it" factor, that "we're not out of the game, we can do this!" attitude. But, paradoxically, his WR and RB do go hard for him so I figured he must have something.
Then last night, they're kicking Patriot Butt and taking names, and he's clearly having a great time - cracking a big grin on the sideline at a good D play, laughing. Then he goes back onto the field, and he still doesn't look like he's having a good time.
I concluded that Fields has the QB equivalent of "Resting B**ch Face" where when he's in the game and focused, he just looks like that.
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1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:
It would be nice if Mac N Cheese got punched in the balls at the bottom of a pile
As long as the puncher is able to get in some good power from a short distance
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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:
Great video breakdown of various ways the Bills DT's are helping the D out. From controlling the LOS and taking on double teams and preventing combo blocks from getting to the LB's, to getting upfield in the pass rush.
Daquan Jones has been nothing less than stellar for the Bills, but the other DT's have been playing very well also...
Bills causing stalemates at the LOS on a regular basis giving the RB nowhere to go on runs.
Great video, thanks for linking!
You can really see in one of those film clips how much these guys rely upon their ankles
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Bills sign Dawson Knox to 4-year $53.6 mill extension ($31 mill gtd) through 2026
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
? Last week no Ints