Beck Water
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Posts posted by Beck Water
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2 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:
Where do I go to get my apology from all the people who lambasted me for suggesting that Tre might not be ready for the start of the season, then the KC game, now the GB game?
I don't think I'm one of them, but I'll be glad to give you an apology if it'll make you feel better:
"I apologize to That's No Moon"
There ya go!
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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Not all ACL injuries are created equal. I don't have any sources to cite but I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown of those injuries where, as we were told initially on Tre, no other structural damage or damage to other ligaments was found.
From the experts I speak to (and admittedly they are more used to treating soccer players) the recovery range for the "typical" ACL tear (and knowing that no tear is ever quite that simple to badge) is 6-9 months.
And there are NFL players who tore theirs after Tre who are back on the field, right? I don't buy that it has all been smooth sailing and he still isn't ready to play. He is making progress, that is good. But the Bills waited until the very last minute to PUP him which means at some point they thought there was a chance he'd play before week 4. Beane told us they were not ruling that out and were "running the clock" and now he still isn't ready come week 8? Yea. I believe there has been a setback somewhere that they are not telling us about which they are well within their rights to do. We are well within ours to speculate.
You're well within your rights to speculate about setbacks and additional damage, sure. Absent sources to the contrary, perhaps it would be advisable to step away from the definitive pronouncements "it should not take 10 and a half months for an NFL player off an ACL tear with no other damage to get back on the field in this day and age", when there's a recent published study saying 13.6 months was the average time for NFL WR and RBs?
Found by a couple minutes of googling, btw
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10 minutes ago, K-9 said:
Removing the red jersey and allowing him to participate fully in practice does not suggest a “set back” in his recovery. Wanting to see a full week of full participation in practice while maximizing roster flexibility vis a vis his current PUP status makes a lot of sense.
Right, I'm sure they had their reasons for choosing this activation window, but most players seem to think a guy needs a couple weeks of practice to get himself close to "game shape". Tre had 3 practices last week, then the bye. Maybe let the guy have 9 practices (3 weeks) before they throw him into a game.
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1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
To me it’s a roster saving move plus they give White another week of practice.
The Bills have some tough roster decisions to make to activate White. We could see some trades.
TBH it wouldn't surprise me if Beane is trying to make a trade to open a roster spot
Also wouldn't surprise me if potential trade partners are hanging back saying "yeah, we know you're gonna cut someone to activate White so we'll take our time...." and the Bills saying "nope, Tre not playing Sunday" is one way of saying "don't hold your breath past the trade deadline on that..."
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34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
It is concerning to me. We are 11 months removed from the injury now and we are 10 and a half months removed from the surgery. From what was described to us at the time as an ACL with no other ligament or structural damage associated he is behind schedule. I think there was a setback somewhere that the team have not made public. That is their right to do so. But he is behind any normal schedule unless the way they described the injury initially was in fact inaccurate and there was additional damage. It is that latter possibility that I confess is concerning me a little.
Source for this info on normal and behind schedule?
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29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yep. My guess is there was a setback after that first week and a half of camp when he was off to the side every day and the Bills have kept it quiet. They are within their rights to do that of course. But at this stage either the description of the initial injury was inaccurate or there has been a setback in the rehab. Because it should not take 10 and a half months for an NFL player off an ACL tear with no other damage to get back on the field in this day and age.
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Recovery range is usually given as 9-12 months. 10 1/2 months is well within that.
Here's a 2021 study of WR and RB rtp (I would think physical demands on DB would be similar). In this study, the mean RTP was 13.6 months.
Even soccer players, who are noted for having a more aggressive RTP timeline than some other sports (and who are not supposed to be tackling each other on every play), the mean is 216 ± 109 days, which means an average of 7.2 months, but 10.8 months is within 1 standard deviation ie not unusually long.
Would you mind citing the sources for your information that it shouldn't take 10.5 months in this day an age?
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1 hour ago, jletha said:
Doent this mean he he has to be activated before the Jets game though?
Yes, must be activated to the 53-man roster by Tues. Nov 1
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39 minutes ago, CLTbills said:
Just has to be on the 53. They can make him a game day inactive but he has to be on the active roster by Tuesday.
CLT is correct. The Bills have to make a roster move and add Tre White to the 53 man roster by Tuesday.
After at least 24 hrs on the 53 man roster, the Bills can then choose to place him on IR for 4 games, or keep him on the 53 man roster but make him inactive on game day if they don't think he's ready.
That's the "loophole" to the PUP/21 day window to activate or go on season ending IR
7 minutes ago, Logic said:
That's not what I read here:
https://theathletic.com/3454626/2022/07/28/nfl-pup-list-faq/
"The player has to remain on the reserve/PUP list for at least the first four regular season games (Oct. 3 or 4 this season), which is new this season.Once a player leaves the reserve/PUP list, he has up to 21 days to return to the 53-man roster. He can practice with the team until he’s taken off the list. If the player still isn’t able to play in games after the 21-day span, he’ll stay on the reserve/PUP list for the rest of the season."
LIke a lot of things in the NFL, it turns out there's a trick
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2 hours ago, fergie's ire said:
I found the contrast between Bills D/Chiefs and 49ers D/Chiefs to be interesting. The Bills were able to harass Mahomes throughout the game but particularly on the last interception. Late in the49ers game, the commentator mentioned that Mahomes had not been touched. Yes, they did finally get a sack and yes they had a lot of injuries (but so have we). In recent weeks the talk has been about two of the great defenses being 9ers and Bills...but the Bills D looked MUCH more impressive against Chiefs, particularly the D line. Bills have mainly played good QBs and teams. It will be interesting to see what happens when they get to play some struggling D's and quarterbacks. It really could be scary.
I'd love to thump my chest about the superiority of the Bills DL, but the fact is the 49ers were playing with half their starting front 4 (Bosa and Ebukam) limited all week and presumably not full go - and with their anchor in the middle, Armstead, out.
I don't even want to detail what that would be equivalent to for the Bills, but we were fortunate to face Mahomes at near 100% for our "current starters" defensively.
So comparing us to SF is a bit apples-to-oranges there.
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58 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Knox is great, lost in the shuffle of all this sudden hate is that the idea that he's about to be paid like one of the top TEs in the league is that he's not.
He didn't top/reset the market, there's a bunch of guys ahead of him when he signed the contract, in a year or two he'll be in the middle of the pack.
He's the 6th highest TE in total contract and in AAV. You're right he didn't reset the market, but top-6 or even top-10 is "paid like one of the top TEs in the league" by most people's standards.
TE is a hard position to evaluate play and set value, because some of the top paid TE are really used more like huge-ass WR. They are running routes on almost every play and it shows in their targets and other receiving stats. Some are more like underweight OLmen. And some are asked to be complete TE and do both.
Knox is asked to do both. When he does run routes, it's often a release after he chips or a short route to serve as an outlet.
It's fundamentally flawed to look at his contract and his production in the passing game (targets, receptions, yards) and just compare him to the TE who are heavily used in the receiving game, like Waller, Kelce, Andrews, Ertz, Higbee, Everett (tip: when a guy has targets comparable to the top-32 WR in the league, it's a good guess he's being primarily asked to run routes)
My sense is that Knox has under-produced in the passing game a bit relative to what the Bills expected this year, but he's missed a game and he's also likely working his way back emotionally from a huge personal loss. There's something to be said for letting him block a bit more and waiting until he shows whatever they want to see in practice before asking more of him in a game
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10 hours ago, Einstein said:
“Any fool can know, the point is to understand” - Albert Einstein
The single worst part of sport discussion forums is groupthink.
On this forum, groupthink coincides with an attack on anyone that gives even the slightest criticism of a current starter, coach, owner, or anyone affiliated with the team.
There is no room for understanding, predicting, analyzing and speaking truth to potentials departures. All room is taken up by the “knowing” crowd - those that “know” that another poster is wrong, should post less, etc. Your post above, in a nutshell.
Prior to the onslaught of “knowers” bashing my thread, several people had agreed with it. One deleted their post (they were one of the first responses), and another edited their post to say something different. This is because they don’t want to go against the crowd. Groupthink.
Dude, I believe in another post you objected to the 'ad hominem' - people substituting personal insults for meaningful debate - and rightly so.
Please understand that accusing those who disagree with you of "groupthink" (not wanting to go against the crowd) shows similar bankruptcy of argument skill and data as a debating tactic to the "ad hominem". (There's probably a catchy latin phrase for it, but I don't know it)
This is a message board. None of us are risking employment, public office, church leadership, or the safety of our families by posting here. The chances that any of the folks here are "afraid" to express their opinion for fear of peer pressure is low to nil.
Moreover, many of us regularly express viewpoints others disagree with and wind up having civil debates about it until we reach an understanding of where we "agree to disagree" because we identify the base point where we see things differently.
You made a somewhat controversial post. When disagreed with, you have yet to bolster much further evidence to your argument, you're turning to a "y'all are just Sheep, brainwashed to follow the herd" variant. It doesn't make you look like your namesake, it makes you look Weak Sauce as a poster.
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13 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:
Oh no. This was someone openly questioning whether we should trade Tre because the rookies are playing so well.
Really? I'm aware of the "move Tre to Safety" thread, but I musta missed that and can't find it.
Here's the Safety gem:
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13 hours ago, Einstein said:
I asked if anyone thought it was possible, yes.
I have no doubt he will play next year for someone.
I think you should have doubt on that point.
Hyde and his camp have put out the narrative "healthy return in 2023", but the data are that roughly 2/3 return to play and 1/3 don't.
33% chance of not returning ain't small bananas
Which is why trade interest will be limited.
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12 hours ago, Einstein said:
Since Hyde has been out, our defense has given up 16 points per game. More impressively, they gave up only 20 to the high powered Chiefs.
🥵 I think you can make the argument that the Bills would have beaten the Dolphins with Hyde playing - that 3rd and 22(?) pass to Hill likely doesn’t happen. But then again, it may not have happened with Poyer playing. They were both out that game.
👉 I am certainly not saying we are better without Hyde… but I am asking, how much worse are we really? And does extending (or going into a contract year at $11M cap hit) worth not having a slight drop in quality?
Could we trade him for a draft asset?
💰 We have a potential “out” with his contact this off-season. It would save us about $4 million in cap space ($11M cap savings minus $7M in dead cap).
Hamlin & Johnson combined account for 1/5th of Hyde’s cap hit next year.
Poyer is 115 days younger than Hyde. If we had to pick one safety to keep, I think I may lean toward Poyer over Hyde.
If we want to play the with/without Hyde game, we gave up an average of 8.5 ppg and 215 ypg with Hyde, 16 ppg and 315 ypg without. So we would have to say he's worth 100 ypg and 7.5 ppg.Since we lost a game by 2 points and won 2 games by 3 and 4 points (meaning they could easily have swung the other way), that sounds valuable even framed in those "let's look at team stats and try to deduce the value of one player" terms
Moreover, the "16 PPG" given up stat is misleading. We have given up 21, 20, 3 and 20 points. So the average is skewed by one low scoring game against a rookie QB. Where he moved the ball well, passing for 310 yds, 65% completions - but couldn't seal the deal and get in the EZ.
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We run a scheme that's DB friendly. we have a better DL this season (which is also DB friendly) and we have 1 promising backup safety. In previous seasons, when either Hyde OR Poyer were missing, we never particularly noticed. But when the injury bug inevitably bites, and we miss both, that may spell trouble.
But the measure of what the all-pro level, experienced players bring may not show up until the playoffs. We were playing well on D without Tre White with Dane Jackson filling in capably but we still lost some of the capabilities Tre brings, does anyone think he might not have made a difference in the playoffs vs. KC? (I'm sure someone does, but I don't).
Poyer is unsigned for next season and pretty much has made it clear he wants a longer contract that will carry him through retirement and top-10, maybe top-5 safety pay. I'd like to have him back, but not sure Beane can swing that.
The relatively minor cap savings from cutting Hyde (due to his restructure which amortized restructure payments thru 2026 with "dummy years" would not be worth going into the draft with Hamlin and Johnson pencilled in as our starting safeties. Big drop-off there IMO.
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I don't think there's much trade market for a 32 yr old DB coming off neck surgery at $7.2M. He hopes to come back - so did Aaron Williams - but there's a real chance he won't be medically cleared (in which case we may be on the hook for his full salary). There's also the same perception that he plays in a "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" DB-friendly scheme.
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22 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:
You can read my previous post detailing his route run metrics.
Your previous post "detailing his route run metrics" says this: "He's continually poor in yards per route run (32nd this year, 22nd last year, 31st year prior)"
Since that's not a metric available on NFL.com or pro-football-reference, perhaps you could explain what it means and why you think it's important when someone asks "what metrics are poor?" What does that even mean?
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1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:
That post is like 3 weeks old
The post is like 3 weeks old dude. It's not about last week's game.
Nice way to answer the question what you're talking about
Your post was Oct 8 so you must be talking about the Ravens game. There was 1 interception off a ball tipped at the LOS.
Still doesn't explain what you're talking about with "Just last week he (Knox) pulled him arms back and gave the defense an INT instead of just catching the ball" as that's nowhere near what happened.
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On 10/8/2022 at 8:06 PM, ArtVandalay said:
It's his fault, his whole career he's made spectacular grabs but can't make routine plays.
He's run the 8th most routes of any TE in the league. Last year he ran the 8th most routes of any TE. He gets plenty of opportunity in the passing game. He's continually poor in yards per route run (32nd this year, 22nd last year, 31st year prior)... unless we are to say Josh is to blame?
Just last week he pulled him arms back and gave the defense an INT instead of just catching the ball.
I like Knox, i do, but he is a frustrating player.
It's a long year lots of football to be played, but blows my mind how sensitive people are to any criticism of a guy that hasn't produced and recently signed a monster contract.
? Last week no Ints
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3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:
First of all, if you like good writing, good journalism, and a modern perspective on analytics... but don't like paying for it you should bookmark and regularly visit The Ringer. This is Bill Simmons' newest sports and pop culture website and the successor to the now-defunct "Grantland." As I said, it's free.
Today's edition had an excellent article that specifically addressed the Indy/Matt Ryan situation but more broadly addressed the continued ascendency of the mobile NFL quarterback.
The Simple Math Behind the Colts’ Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger:
Benching Matt Ryan isn’t about trying to find a better passer—it’s about trying to find a better runner. Indianapolis looks poised to show us the true value of a quarterback who can escape pressure and scramble.
"This is related to, but not completely the same as, the league’s move toward mobile quarterbacks in the past decade. After spending the 2000s chasing cerebral, statuesque quarterbacks in the Peyton Manning–Tom Brady mold, the NFL started to find competitive edges with dual-threat quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, and expanded on those edges with Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and others. In 2022, it’s known that the league’s elite quarterbacks—Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen—can beat you with their arms, no problem. But if you somehow manage to quiet them in the air, they’ll just beat you with their legs instead." .
"Consider a quarterback with little to no scramble ability at all. Quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, and Matt Ryan. When they are pressured, they are almost certainly not going to try to break the pocket. Instead, they’ll throw the ball away or take a sack—or attempt a pass, but one that is far more likely to be inaccurate. No matter what, it’s a win for the defense, and we can see it in the performance of these stationary passers. With pressure, Brady falls from 17th in EPA per dropback to 31st; Garoppolo from third to 32nd. (Houston QB Davis Mills weirdly goes from 33rd in EPA per dropback without pressure to 12th with pressure. Don’t ask me what’s going on there. I have no idea.) But most importantly for our conversation today: Matt Ryan falls from 11th to 33rd."
There's some additional discussion of case studies like Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones and then some analytics thrown in for good measure.
It's a pretty good read.
References this tweet by PFF'er Timo Riske (but it's actual data, not interpretation by dudes in India)
Interesting insights on what each QB is most likely to do under various situations
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6 hours ago, transient said:
Mac Jones is a little B word who squealed like a pig when he sprained his ankle. If he keeps this punk ***** up he's going to get straight up murdered by a pissed off defensive lineman one day and everyone will stand around saying "that's a shame".
I'd say that right now: "That's a Shame (tm)"
11 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:Still a bad throw and still karma for trying to kick a guy in the balls
That's how I see it. The Safety was positioned to play robber, he was in front of the WR, he was tracking the ball, and he was motivated to high-point that sucka
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Just listened to Frazier's press conference.
To be honest, he sounds more concerned about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers than he did about Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I hope Frazier won't be a "prisoner of his past". While Frazier was DC and then HC of the Vikings, Rodgers and the Packers pretty much stole his lunch money and beat him up on a regular basis (4-10-1 record). This is not the same team, nor is Aaron Rodgers the same QB
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4 hours ago, Warcodered said:
Who was it who wanted Turkish Delight?
LOL Cook choosing Skittles
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FOX Sports NFL has a sense of humor, who knew?
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6 minutes ago, Augie said:
I don’t gamble, but I’d wager on that. I think it’s almost inevitable, actually.
Fair enough.
My point was you can strip out all the opinions and the reasons for doing or not doing something.
The bottom line is: Rodgers has new WR who he finger-points publicly as making mistakes in games - but there is something he could have voluntarily done to help them develop and get on the same page with him (participate in OTAs and throw with them off season), and apparently he did not do it.
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43 minutes ago, Augie said:
Not to mention, Josh and Mahomes will be quick to restructure to help the team when need be. They will also be available to work with teammates in the offseason in various locales to get better (as has actually happened already). They are about the team, and winning.
Rodgers is a smug %$^&# and all about himself. He was too self-important to work with the young guys he’s now complaining about being unprepared. Instead, he spent the offseason doing psychedelics to become a better lover. WTF?
I dunno if Allen and Mahomes will restructure to help the team. A lot of team guys take the viewpoint "team is team, but business is business." Also dunno about Rodgers motives for not working with the team.
But it's reliably reported that both Allen and Mahomes worked with teammates in the off-season, and it's also reported that Aaron Rodgers did not, and in fact only showed up for "mandatory" OTAs. So he did pass up (pun intended) some personal actions and accountabilities that might have helped him teach his new WR how he wants them to run routes, and work with them on what body language he needs from them (assuming GB has option routes as we do)
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Tre White expected back to full practice after the Bye (update - won’t play vs GB)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
For a lay person with (from what you've said in various posts) no specialized medical or scientific training to be all "I stand by what I said" about RTP times, in the face of a published, peer reviewed, descriptive epidemiological study of position groups that would seem to present similar demands on the knee for pivoting on a planted foot in order to cut and change direction -
- I don't get it, that's all.