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Everything posted by Beck Water
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A Few Thoughts about the Dolphins Game, in no particular order
Beck Water replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall
Even on the first Ingram interception, it was Benford who had the receiver covered with a blanket and forced the deflection that got picked. -
A Few Thoughts about the Dolphins Game, in no particular order
Beck Water replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall
I wish you would (write about McDaniel). -
I don't think Brady de-prioritized Diggs per se. Diggs was still averaging 8 targets per game. But he was being used more on short passes, from the backfield and behind the LOS where he had to earn yards by YAC. What I think Brady did, was take a deep look at the Cold Hard Football Facts. And that led him to conclude that Diggs simply wasn't winning on those deeper routes, leading to Josh either trying to force him the ball or throwing incompletions. So he tried to put Diggs into a position to be more successful with shorter routes. The other thing I think Brady did, is say (and I think he was correct) "we can not win without a run game because of how teams have adjusted their defensive coverage to us. So by God, we will have a run gane and if it works, we'll keep using it until they prove they can stop it". That wasn't de-prioritizing Diggs per se, but it was effectively de-prioritizing the passing game. And the results spoke for themselves. Edit to add: Diggs first game with the Texans, he had 6 receptions on 6 targets - for 33 yards. Nico Collins had 6 receptions on 8 targets - for 117 yds. This was "business as usual" for Collins who averaged 8 targets and 92 YPG in the 14 games where he wasn't injured or inactive last season. And, the Texans offense had 40 rush attempts to 32 pass attempts. Bobby Slowik, of course, became Texans OC after 4 yrs w/ the 49ers, one of the NFL teams that runs more than 50% of the time. Gonna be interesting to watch from a distance, very interesting. I think Diggs fully intends to be a fantastic teammate and on his very best behavior - but is that gonna last if he's being utilized in a way that keeps him under 50 YPG?
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Well, there are a couple of things. First, Diggs wasn't getting 10 receptions per game before Brady became OC. He was averaging 10 targets per game and 87 YPG, though. After Brady took over, he dropped to 8 targets per game - but more than that changed. He was being used on shorter routes and from the slot, averaging 45 YPG. So only 2 fewer targets, but yards almost cut in half. Diggs did not like that, one bit. The fact that the team was now winning, did not make it better in his mind. It wasn't just that drop in the Chiefs game, he fumbled on the very first play of the game and a turnover was only saved by Kincaid alertly batting the ball out of bounds at the cost of a 10 yd penalty. Big momentum killer, and it didn't help when Josh did his "good teammate" thing of targeting Diggs deep on the very next play only to net another incompletion.
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| "I don't understand the world today, I don't understand what (he) needed | (We) gave (Diggs) everything, (he) threw it all away on nothin' " | -apologies to Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers The biggest puzzle to me of the whole Diggs kerfluffle was listening to a panel discussion including Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic where Joe opined that Diggs was "a much misunderstood dude" and "tremendously self-aware" and deliberate about what he was doing, while he was doing it. Because I don't see how that can possibly be consistent with some of his behavior here. I think of Diggs as the sort of person who starts feeling this almost-unbearable internal discomfort after he's been in a situation for a while if it isn't going entirely as he wants. And he isn't self-aware enough to look in a mirror and say "what is my part in this? what am I doing or have I done that is contributing to this situation and how can I change to change the situation?". Which, to be honest, most of us don't. But if it's not you, or you don't see what part of it is you, then it must be the other guy, or the situation you're in, or both. I also think Diggs trends towards being a narcissist, which goes along with only being concerned with other people for what you get from them. But narcissists can come across as charming and self-aware when you talk to them in situations they control I think Diggs laid it out in the GQ article linked above - he wants to be a HOF WR. He wants targets, he wants yards, and he wants Championships. I think Diggs lost at least some faith in McDermott as the Coach to get him that championship after the 13 seconds game. I think he lost faith in Allen as the QB to take him where he wanted to go partway through the 2022 season. And once that happened, then his internal discomfort is going to build and build and he's going to want out and feel entirely justified.
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I went back and looked again, and it's a lower probability than I thought at first. So I can't blame Josh for passing that one I don't agree that it's a "never" though - but I'd agree it's far from a gimme -
I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't mind Josh going to the open guy. What I mind is when Josh passes up several open guys to take a very much lower probability throw that's a "kill shot" if he makes it, and kills the drive if he doesn't. -
I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
OK, I respect your opinion and what you see on the field. That's pretty cool if so. -
This is why I don't have a lot of respect for this Thigh Doctor guy. Where others are saying "OK, we need to wait for tests to know the severity" he's "all in" running with the worst case in both the surgery needed/no surgery needed case. Injuries are always "no bueno", but I feel like he's doomsaying for the clicks. So now we know it's a strain and won't need surgery, which still has a lot of variance to it depending on how severe the tear is, and if they haven't just slapped him on IR already they probably think it's closer to 4 weeks (or less) It depends on what you ask of your backers, right? They are choosing players who seem to fit their defensive scheme. I think every team would like a fast, athletic LB who is taller and heavier than average and has an A+ head for the game, but those guys usually get drafted earlier than the 3rd to 5th round.
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If you'll excuse my saying, I think that is pure revisionist history. I'd be glad to see your receipts on this topic. But I don't see how anyone could deny the quality and importance of Diggs contributions in 2020 thru mid 2022
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His angle-finder is solving for solutions his legs can no longer execute To be fair, though, I think I read that Cook's speed was >20 mph on that run - even a young Poyer woulda had trouble with that Is this verified?
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I didn't see a problem with the hold
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
There's something about this chart overall that doesn't pass the sniff test. What does "average separation" mean here? Are they talking about all of the receivers separation on every play, or only the receiver who is targetted? Take a gander at this clip from last night's game (Brian Baldinger, who everyone should check out every week if they don't) The first play in the clip is the 3rd and 12 33-yd play to Ty Johnson. From the pocket, Allen has Hollins (mis-ID'd as Coleman by Baldy) so wide open Hollins, short of the sticks, could probably pause for "a spot of tea" and still get the first down. He's got Kincaid super-open on a scramble drill. Neither of those are good enough, Allen wants to toast Jalen Ramsey like Ty Johnson is a fire and Ramsey's on a stick like a weiner. But the point is, there is separation all over the place, Allen just chooses the higher degree of difficulty throw. And this isn't by any means a unique play. -
I hope they IR him. I'm sure Bernard doesn't want to go on IR and will argue against it, but the Bills went down that road with Milano a couple years ago where they let him miss 2 games with a strain/partial tear and he couldn't lift his freakin' arm to tackle - it literally hurt the team for him to be out there plus, it cost him more time. Put the man on IR and let him heal. Fortunately, the Bills don't have to make a decision until when? a week from Monday? This is where I am. I think the Bills stay with Spector, AND they sign someone off the street, probably to the practice squad. Ouch. Actually Edmunds did have a shoulder injury - torn rotator cuff? He played worse than usual while recovering.
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Was it misting or something, and the field was greasy? Never believe an opposing player on whether a catch is good or a ball is tipped.
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Right, but why did he decide to lower his shoulder/head? He was past the first down marker at that point. Give the guy credit for knowing they're down 3 scores and wanting to make something happen, but it's 4th and 3 at the Buf 13, the minute you pass the 9 yd line PROTECT YOURSELF. He had no chance of scoring a TD there.
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I looked at the highlights, and I'm pretty convinced that it was not tipped. There was a Dolphins player who jumped up with a hand, but I found a shot where it looked as though the ball was heading wide L before it got to the Dolphins defenders. I do think Bass slipped a bit as he planted to kick, though, which considering how everyone else on the field was slipping and falling would not be a huge shock.
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All that you say is true, but the point remains that Tua made uncharacteristic mistakes. He threw a pick on the very first drive. Yes, you're correct, it was 3rd and 13, but he had Jonnu Smith wide open short, with a chance to get YAC and make it a short 4th down; he had Chosen who looked open; Bernard had Grant DuBose covered like a blanket. This is the first drive, "feeling the other guy out" territory. Tua had no reason to press like that. After a successful TD scoring drive to tie the game, Tua threw his second INT on 1st and 10, just after a successful 12 yd gain by Hill. Tua had space around him and room to step into his throw, he just overthrew Chosen (who would have been open to a better throw) and it sailed right into Bernard's waiting hands. Again, at this point the score was 7-7 and the Phins had scored on their previous drive; it was just a bad decision/throw on 1st down.
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So for reference, here is an article from Kyle Trimble (BangedUpBills) when DaQuan Jones tore his pec last season. He goes over the anatomy of the pectoral muscle and various injury mechanisms https://bangedupbills.com/2023/10/09/analyzing-buffalo-bills-daquan-joness-pectoral-injury/ He lists a number of players with pec tears and their RTP timelines. Feliciano, who tore his pec lifting weights, described it as the "worst pain he's ever felt in his life". Since it's thought that Bernard tore it several plays before he finally came out and went to the tent, either he's way tougher (possible) Or, it's not a complete tear. Injury review from Dolphins game. Trimble points out that we won't know what's going on until Bernard gets an MRI today https://bangedupbills.com/2024/09/13/buffalo-bills-vs-miami-dolphins-week-2-injury-review/
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I haven't wanted to "go there", but I will at this time. Bear in mind that in 2022, Tua had a horrible 2nd concussion complete with fencing response on Thursday night....after he had what every "injury spotter" doc and even talking heads felt pretty sure was a concussion on Sunday afternoon vs the Bills Prior to the concussion last night, Tua was having a "terrible, horrible, no good very bad" game against the Bills. One of Tua's calling cards is being "careful with the football": having good judgement, knowing when to check it down or throw it away, being "careful with the football" (maybe too careful). In 2022, McDaniel's 1st year, he had 25 TD to 8 INT. Last year he took more chances, but still 29 to 14. It's not that he's never thrown a 3 INT game before, but only one other since his rookie year. I've wondered if careful scrutiny would show a possible concussion that went un-addressed during the Mia-Jax game leading to uncharacteristic mistakes. Yeah, Damar basically stood there like a wall and Tua lowered his helmet and ran right into him. I mean, c'Mon man!
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
You'll have a happier life if you stop looking over the fence into the neighbor's field and performing comparative analysis of his pasture quality. In the two games we played, the Bills have 59 rush attempts (58%) to 42 pass attempts (42%). The reason is, the Dolphins were vulnerable against the run, and Joe Brady seems to live by the mantra "if it's working, we're gonna keep doing it until you stop it". So he kept running. You can see this in the fact that Knox (who can block in-line and downfield) actually had more snap counts than Kincaid (whose blocking is improving, but still mostly limited to being in the right place at the right time and giving a little shove. Look at the snap counts, which are out already. They're interesting. 91% is "I played the whole game" because they pulled the starters after that. Keon Coleman basically didn't come off the field until they pulled the starters at the end. I would love to know what routes he was running because unlike Hollins, who had the second highest snap count among the WR, Keon is not in there to block. He can block, but like any rookie he's learning how it's done in the Big Leagues. Samuel saw 12 snaps in last night's game. MVS saw 4. So I'm not sure where you're seeing "they didn't get separation downfield" because, they were barely on the field, and sometimes when they were, they did; MVS had separation on a dangerous off-platform pass from Allen which he shouldn't have thrown. -
Von Miller proves the doubters wrong
Beck Water replied to transplantbillsfan's topic in The Stadium Wall
I came here to share this -
Maybe the coaching staff should put their bodies in harm's way by trying to Do Their Job and make a tackle while Rapp is launching himself head-first into their knees and ankles