Beck Water

OK, Fess Up. Who had 49ers get stopped on goal line then Darnold throws dime to Jefferson for 97 yd TD on their Bingo card? I can guarantee Harbaugh didn’t, because I think part of their calculus was Darnold wouldn’t do much and they’d get the ball back with good field position? I fear for our draft pick

That's actually an interesting point. Morse is notably fragile to concussion - his most recent concussion with the Bills resulted from what looked like a casual contact with a teammate's knee if I recall correctly. Morse had 6 documented concussions in 8 years as of early 2023. He's a family man with young children he adores. Morse is on the record as saying he's fine, and going to be fine if he has another concussion "because we do things the right way", evidently meaning he doesn't hide symptoms, fudge his baseline testing, etc. He apparently consulted a number of experts in concussion before deciding he would continue to play.

A player actually has died on the field from injuries sustained during the game. https://www.sportscasting.com/news/the-tragic-on-field-death-of-chuck-hughes-may-have-sadly-stemmed-from-a-misdiagnosis/ This was in 1971.

I think the problem with what you suggest is there really isn't that strength of data, linking # of concussions vs long term effects, or # of concussions and missed time. The data are pretty solid that having a concussion that hasn't fully healed puts a person at significantly higher risk for a second concussion. As far as being able to construct probabilities though - we're not there. Too many variables, starting with individual physiological responses, but not ending there. Certainly Tua was horrendously mis-treated for what appeared to every observer (except the "unaffilliated neurotrauma consultant" hired by Miami, their ATCs (athletic trainer spotters, and their team physician) to be an obvious alteration of consciousness affecting his balance and ability to stand/walk, after the Milano hit - and nothing like how people respond when their back is spasming. But part of the problem to get to that quality data which could break it down into probability of missing X weeks or having Y long term effects, is the extreme variability with which concussions are detected and reported and the variability with how they are handled. And part of the responsibility for that, lies with the players. As a HS athlete, my daughter had to do baseline concussion testing. She sat down and gave it her best effort. Her best effort wasn't "up to" John Urshel, but it was pretty dang good. Urshel took a long time to pass his baseline testing after his training camp concussion. As he said, "I must have been having a good day when I did the baseline". (I can only imagine what his coaches were saying about how long it took him to come back. Nothing good, you can be sure). Meanwhile, kid was dating a DT and lifting weights with the football team, and the more senior guys mentored the young guys "don't be too sharp" on the baseline tests. What's drilled into these guys, back in PeeWee Football? McDermott says it: "The Best Ability is Availability". Fitz gets his hand stamped on. Gailey comes up while he's looking at his hand and asks if he can throw. Fitz says "yeah, I'm fine, we can throw on every down". Variable 1: You can't be available if you can't pass your baseline testing. One player-side solution is, make sure your baseline isn't too sharp. Variable 2: Your baseline testing is irrelevant if you aren't diagnosed with a concussion. One player-side solution is, just don't report concussion symptoms. It's the concussion equivalent of what my good friend's CO advised him regarding divorce: "admit nothing. if your wife walks in on you in bed with another woman, say "what woman?" " Get your "bell rung"? Stay down and collect yourself if you can. Wait to be helped up so you have that steadying teammate hand. It's highly probable IMO that the documented concussions every week in the NFL are only a small fraction of the actual concussions that occur, despite the independent neurotrauma consultant and the use of athletic trainer spotters who are supposed to watch the field and alert medical staff to possible injuries.

Me too

Yeah, I dunno. It was Kincaid, not Knox - and to my eyes teams have been paying Kincaid a lot of attention, maybe seeing him as the best receiving option left on the team? Ramsey peeled off to go with him PDQ. You're correct that Josh's eyes were on Kincaid for a while but was that trying to manipulate coverage? O'Sullivan does seem to agree with you that if Josh had gotten the ball out just a bit sooner (he points at footwork) it's a TD. (And if Dawkins got a bit better block on his guy and kept him away from Allen's legs, likewise.) The route still looks odd to me. Maybe that the timing was off a bit on Samuel's part - it looked like it was designed for Kincaid to 'rub' the linebacker a bit and hinder him from getting over to cover Samuel. Maybe asking Samuel to run the route starting 5 yds in the backfield is too big of an ask? This is one of these things where I see something but I don't know what I'm seeing.

Yeah, I linked it in a long post I wrote above, but I'm sure plenty TL;DR me so here it is again 1) by Milano standards, Tua got a "love tap": a little shove straight back from a distance while Milano was pulling up; no throwing down or twisting or landing on him. But Tua's head bounced off the turf rather alarmingly for something he saw coming and could have controlled. 2) Tua appeared unsteady getting up, started to jog forward, and fell to his knees. When a teammate helped him up, he appeared "woozy" and was leaning against a teammate If he wasn't evaluated for concussion after that, the system 100% failed him. I could be off base, you tell me, but I'm not sure you can expect highly competitive players to make decisions in their best interest when they're revved up on adrenaline and in the middle of a game, even if they're fully conscious. I had a friend who moonlighted as a doc for the St Louis Blues and told stories - a player with his cheek gashed open, "stitch me up doc, I need to get out there. no pain meds, just do it fast!"

I pretty much agree with the sentiments you express, but when I unpack the details, there's A Lot. The chain of causation started with the evaluation that Tua did NOT have a concussion on Sunday. If it had been diagnosed as a concussion, either during the game or after the game and he'd been placed in the concussion protocol as he should have been, chances are strong he wouldn't have cleared for Thursday night. I think the entire community of former players and media covering football and physicians who watch football was stunned that he wasn't Dx'd with a concussion after Tua got up, fell to his knees, and appeared (to use a technical term) "woozy", leaning against a teammate to stay up. Even if they blew the diagnosis during the game, the concussion protocol is in part, designed for things that are missed during a game to be caught later. It should be noted that the "personal foul" which led to this was about as milquetoast a hit as a player can sustain. Here's a video for reference - Milano just gave Tua a shove straight back, didn't throw him or land on top of him, and Tua fell backwards and clonked his head. This actually was the kind of hit many players sustain multiple times each game. There is a bunch of stuff going around about decorticate posturing vs fencing response and how they correlate with concussion severity, some of it by people whose credentials and professionalism I respect, and all I'll say is this is way way out of my lane. No one seems to think that decorticate posturing (as in Tua's 2022 concussion) isn't an indication of a severe injury, however. IIRC, the doctors responsible for clearing Tua on Sunday in 2022 were fired. Does McDaniel have responsibility? As a coach, he relies on the professional medical judgement of the physicians paid to care for the players (and the independent neurotrauma consultant). I think there's a case to be made for it being a slippery slope for a coach to over-ride medical professionals. On the other hand, everyone who watched that video of Tua after he got up thought it indicated head trauma. So yeah, Mr "I Love You Tua" was complicit and bears responsibility, if not during the game, then for not saying "man, we got to get you thoroughly checked out!" afterwards. Back in 2022, several people made the point that one of the reasons the system doesn't work is because the players are also complicit in "gaming it". They may fudge their baseline testing so it's easier for them to pass, deny symptoms they are having, and so forth. I think Tua's hit in the Bills game was not so minor- his head and neck can be seen to be bent rather severely to the side in some shots, and then he clonked his head on the turf. Either way, the point is, after avoiding concussions last season, here Tua is with another concussion that appears serious, and now what? Tua's whole performance in that game, starting with his first interception, was sus as hell and showed poor decision making from a QB who is normally careful with the ball. This leads me to totally unsubstantiated speculation that Tua may actually have mirrored the sequence of 2022 - he may have sustained a concussion that went undetected on Sunday, interfering with his reactions and decision making and rendering him once again susceptible to a second, more severe concussion on Thursday. If that were the case, then once again the system would have failed Tua.

Well I guess it was when you posted. By the time I tuned in the Rams were being Lambified

O’Sullivan seemed to feel the LB on Samuel shoulda been the go to matchup all along?

I don't disagree with a thing you said about the way the Dolphins handled Tua, but I can not find anything reputable about Tua retiring. A bunch of former players and pundits and a couple doctors saying that he should But nothing from Tua I think he's too smart and too well-advised to make a decision like that this hastily. He'll wait until he's recovered and has had time to mull it over.

What if I told you that Williams played 211 regular season defensive snaps plus 27 in the playoffs last season? I'm not gonna say that's nothing, but over 19 games, that comes out to 12.5 snaps per game. He saw a significant snap % in only one game (vs Giants) He's played almost half what he played last season in just two games this year. So he really doesn't have a lot of tread on his defensive game tires yet. Should add, defensive snaps. Played a bunch on ST as well, but that doesn't teach him to read his keys

What do you recommend that's on now?

I get SF at MINN which in theory could be good - less interesting without CMC Rooting for a Vikings loss of course, nothing against the SKOL!ites

Oh, man! Sucks for the 9ers

To your point, at 6:09 in the video Josh finished the throw hopping on one leg, so you could tell he didn't get the platform he wanted. There was something odd to me about how Samuel ran his route - could you watch it and tell me what he's doing? It's like he slowed to watch a couple times, did he have several windows?

Excellent stuff!

FWIW here's a Bangedup Bills blog post describing, based on the new info and on photo of Bernard in the locker room after the game with no sling, where he believes the tear must be and comparing the timelines of several players when they returned from a partial pectoral tear. https://bangedupbills.com/2024/09/13/investigating-terrel-bernards-pectoral-injury/

Thanks! I will note that Simon expressed that he sees strong blocking out of Keon and believes he has the confidence of the coaches, so maybe Keon is there to block. I think one concern may be limiting what Josh has to do with his left hand somewhat - if he's handing the ball off, there's less chance of Stuff Happening?

Yeah, that's been the reaction of various pundits and even some doctors who have commented, but I actually follow her for stuff about back injury and I would say she has a higher level of expertise and her explanation makes sense to me. Apparently it's a definitive indicator for a concussion (since the neurons don't get stretched without one) but doesn't indicate it's necessarily more severe.

He definitely does

I'm not sure where the right place to put this is, but I found this Youtube piece by a board certified neurosurgeon interesting, and your post seemed like a good place to put it. As to your point, the first question is going to be does Tua heal and recover completely from this concussion? As we know from Mr Bath Mat, Kevin Kolb, there can be permanent effects. Long term decisions have to wait on this first step, recovery. As to your points, they're valid, but I think if Tua recovers and clears protocol, it's really going to be up to Tua. If Tua is kept from playing and suffers financial loss, I would think the doctor would face potential repercussions from preventing his play. Pretty sure the players all sign liability waivers, so being sued might not be a concern. My hope for Tua is that his family and friends and his physicians help him evaluate and make the best decision for him (which I think would be step away). On to the Lady Spine Doc: She explains what causes the "fencing posture" - about 1:25 in. It's all about stretching the neurons in your lateral vestibular nucleus (she goes too fast by the diagram, freeze the video at that point). She says having this spontaneous neuron signaling that causes involuntary contraction doesn't necessarily indicate how serious the concussion is, which I found interesting - evidently it's all about what part of the brain gets hit and whether or not the neurons leading to the lateral vestibular nucleus get stretched Minor point that she (and a number of other commentators on the web) mistakenly say his previous concussions with involuntary contraction were last season, when in fact they were in 2022. Anyway, I thought it was interesting for the info on what causes the fencing posture, why it doesn't necessarily mean that the concussion was more serious, and unlike a number of pundits she's not all "this doesn't mean he can't return to play", though of course she points out the concussions are very concerning for long term brain injury.

I think AJ's wife secretly has Beane's number blocked and silenced.

It's Josh Hines-Allen

So the Dolphins just passed all over the Jags. 23 of 37 for 338 yds. 400 yds offense. On the other side of the ball, the Jags were able to run on the Phins, but their passing game wasn't much. 12 completions for 162 yds. Whether that's on the Dolphins defending the pass well, or whether that's on the Jags not having too much of a passing game, can't tell you at this point. Guess we'll learn more on Sunday. In their H2H meetings so far, Doug Pederson has not been one of the offensive coaches whose number is written on McDermott's office wall.