Beck Water

You make a number of great points that I agree with fully - about the tiresome TBD theme of trashing players and making them whipping boys for all the team's ills (especially when there are probably multiple factors) In different order: 3) Josh's elbow (or some other performance issue) was IMHO affecting Josh from the 2nd half of the Packers game on. A lot of his throws were off - not hugely off, but enough off to take them from "you gotta catch that" into "a bit behind, a bit above, he could have caught it but it would have been a bit of a Circus Catch". Still off on a few throws but they're getting fewer and further between. Some of them were way off. I don't believe Josh was trying to throw that red-zone ball away by dirting it. 1) I think the ankle may be a lingering issue from the injury prior to Game 2. But he's not been on injury report since Steelers Week. It was said Davis had an ankle that reportedly was a lingering issue (not on injury report, but per Sal Capaccio had visibly affected him) last season. If a guy is going to have repeated performance issues linked back to the same lingering injury, that's kind of a problem. 2) Overall play design/play calling has been an issue. It's easier to have an effective pass game when you have an effective run game, for one. Then, I think both Dorsey's play design, AND Josh's execution of it, has been affecting offensive production. I think Dorsey's preferred answer for some of the defenses we're seeing is to have deep options soaking up the DBs, and then shallow options for quick hitters that allow good YAC. The idea is to keep thatJosh took a bunch of those quick hitters vs. NE, so if this continues, I think we'll see happier days on offense. Overall, though: the Bills gambled that Gabe Davis in his 3rd year was ready to take on the #2 WR spot, just as they gambled they'd get adequate slot production from some combination of a McKenzie/Crowder platoon, increased production from Knox, and a pass-catching RB. Davis in terms of YPG has come up in production to a #2 WR, currently at #27 with 60.5 YPG, but #86 for receptions per game with just over 3. So he's had some marvelous big plays, but not that consistency we'd like in terms of game-in, game out contributions. I think he can level-up, but he needs to take a deep breath and do it. Josh Allen said it: "If anybody says they're playing injury-free in this league, they’re probably lying to you. Everybody’s battling injuries, battling bumps and bruises. If I’m going to be the guy that I think I am, I say I am and my teammates think I am, (then) I've got to go be that guy, so that's all there is to it."

There’s some ambiguity in wording there. If it’s a 3 year deal,”hope it ends up” being $20M/ yr could mean $20M AAV, or $20M cap hit the 3rd year with escalators and incentives 🤷‍♂️

Question: is there such a thing as an unrealistic expectation based in reality? Or a realistic expectation based not in reality? Yes

I believe both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have this guy cook for them. Apparently he has a gift for preparing super-tasty food that meets the nutritional and caloric needs of the WRs. IMMA guess a normal WR dinner during the season does not include two kinds of cake tho

Rest of what Raanan said:

Oh, My! Let's look at that one in full: Odell Beckham WR, Unsigned Free Agent FOX Sports' Ralph Vacchiano reports there is "considerable doubt" free agent Odell Beckham (knee) can return to play this year. Beckham, who tore his ACL twice in a 16-month span, expects to be fully cleared later this month. Returning this late in the season, there are questions over how healthy Beckham is and whether he can contribute down the stretch. Beckham informed teams he's seeking a multi-year contract that he "hopes ends up being worth $20 million per year." That would put Beckham out of the Giants' price range. Beckham is expected to visit with Buffalo this weekend but the Cowboys remain the favorites for Beckham if the 30-year-old returns this season. If Beckham, having re-injured the same ACL 2x in 2 years, wants a multi-year $20M contract, he can want it somewhere else. Don't Do It, Beane. We have GOT to get more help out of our draft picks and lower price FA Edit: my browser didn't update the link correctly, this is the link I pulled that from:

So Gabe was injured Sat. in practice before our Mon. night Week 2 game, correct? He missed that game, Week 2. He was then questionable for Week 3 and 4 with limited or no participation, but played, and was plainly gimping through it and hampered. He had FP, no game status, and a great game vs. Pittsburgh Has not appeared on the injury report since Pittsburgh Has had strong games against KC, Minn, and Cle, the lowest of which (Cle) would project out to 1000 yd, 100 catch season. So....is his ankle hobbling him selectively in a way which does not limit practice or place him on injury report, or, what's your theory? It's possible that his ankle still isn't right and he's not performing at his athletic peak, but to that one has to say: we were told that last year after he was injured in 1 and "questionable" for Game 2, that even though he wasn't on injury report and had no game status the rest of the season, he was actually hampered through ~week 8. So if this is a repeating pattern of injuring an ankle early in the season and not being able to contribute up to his potential - maybe he's not the guy we need to pay as a #2. I will say this: I haven't watched the details of how he's running every route. Maybe there are nuances he could improve. But from what I've seen, we have an "Allen throwing to Gabe Davis when he's pretty heavily covered and it's a high degree of difficulty catch" problem, not a "Gabe Davis Can't Run" problem

Beane may make minor, relatively low-impact personnel decisions to "make Allen happy". For example, faced with two TE who aren't very good in OJ Howard and Tommy Sweeney, either likely to be inactive on game day, Beane may keep the one who knows our playbook better and who is "good friends" with Allen over the one who, in theory, has a higher ceiling once he learns the playbook. Faced with keeping one of two WR on the practice squad, Beane may keep Allen's boy Gentry who, as a vet may be better at "looks" on scout team, over a younger guy with possibly more long-term potential (in theory). (Note that in both these cases there may be a sound football reason for the choice, but "making Allen happy" could weigh into it.) But if you think Beane is going to hand out a 4 year, $52M contract to "make Allen happy" and not because he thinks that's genuinely fair market value for the guy - Think Again.

To your point: Top is 2022 Bottom is 2021 Difference: 5 TD And the winning comment: And this. He's been living a lot in the "very short pass/check down" area of the field where Josh Allen has a tendency not to see a guy. He has missed some catches he could have had, which had me PERCEIVING him as struggling in the passing game - but I was surprised when I looked - he's actually rocking a career best catch % at 76.7% and his drop % is a career low to this point (he has had some catches we look at and say "he could and should have had that", but they weren't scored as drops) It is true that his receptions per game and targets per game are down, but it's only fractionally - basically, 1 target per game. I think the problem is, we expected his trajectory to continue to climb as far as targets, receptions, and yards, especially when he got the big contract. So he's doing pretty much what he was doing when he got paid, we all just expected .....more. BUT the above is still true. Knox is being under-utilized and could easily have, maybe not the 7 reception 70 yd game he had vs. the Browns, but a 5 target, 4 reception game for 40 yds or more, every game - many on plays where Allen is targeting a higher risk, better covered deeper option.

It depends. On some of the designed QB runs he's been ridiculously open. Designed QB runs up the middle, yeah, I'm with you.

This. Show me an NFL player whose agent isn't always focused on getting them a long-term deal, and I'll show you an NFL player who needs a new agent. And that could be true from OBJ's thinking. But the other side of the coin is, with a 2nd ACL in the same knee, he has a renewed need to show he's back. The thing is, OBJ only needs one team to agree with him, and I'd bet on Jerry for that.

Yes, McKenzie has had some bad plays. But as a matter of CHHF (cold hard football facts) he has had the 2nd highest catch % of the WR on the team all season, second to Diggs - and 3 scored drops for a 6% drop %, just a little bit higher than Diggs with 7 scored drops for 5.5%. And at times he's been wide wide open and overlooked while Josh threw deep to a double-covered guy. We can agree that improved consistency is a goal for him if he wants to stick around.

See, this is not what I'm seeing. Yes, Daboll ran a lot of layer concepts. In 2020 the "intermediate" layer was pretty deep, 10-15 yds and Josh feasted there. In 2021, teams started playing consistent 2 deep, trying to get pressure with 4 or even 3 with stunting and players dropping out vs blitzing, and flooding the middle of field with DBs. It's one reason Beasley was not able to be as consistently effective or gain as many yards on the same # of receptions (it wasn't all on him declining physically). Dorsey started out with more layered concepts, but of recent I feel he's gone away from that to deeper routes and short checkdown routes. I see McKenzie in the flat or on little short comebacks (I know those have a specific name), OR, he's one of the 3 WR running downfield routes (usually clearing routes for Diggs and Davis) and it's Knox and the RB as the checkdowns. McK's clearing routes have been less effective because he hasn't been getting targets and the DBs are like "ha, don't be silly, we're looking at you, Diggs". TD vs Lions was a route where Diggs cleared for McK, the DBs stuck to him like bees on honey, and McKenzie got the grab. FWIW it's not just me, Erik Turner and Nate Geary on a recent Cover1 piece said the same thing about seeing less layers and more "Deep or very shallow, nothing in between". It's why I think if 2020 Beasley walked back in the door today, he wouldn't necessarily have the same success - the way Dorsey is using the slot receiver is different. Now, of course, the chicken-and-egg question can be asked, but I really think it's a philosophical thing. Daboll felt the way to beat teams that flood the middle of the field was by scheming guys open as you say with misdirection, stacked routes, picks, etc - or maybe he did that because he knew Josh behaved as though he's allergic to checkdowns. Dorsey feels the way to play a team that's decided to flood the intermediate to deep parts of the field is to hit the checkdowns and burn them for 10-15 yds over and over and over again until they decide to try something different or you reach the EZ, and Josh, take the checkdown ***** he can get you 20 yds if you throw it on time. But Dorsey and Allen haven't been on the same page, because Josh feels that he has the arm talent to fire it in to tight windows on a double-covered deep guy and the leg talent to extend plays and wait 4 seconds for a WR to get open deep. Hopefully the Pats game is the start of them being more aligned.

Exactly. As someone said, "your body adds up all the bruises and bumps you take in your 20s, and sends you a bill in your 30s". I don't think anyone wants to eliminate the running part of Allen's game. We just want him to be smarter about it - don't fight for "every blade of grass he can get", slide or go out of bounds more.

I will say this. Harbaugh said about Lamar Jackson, "when he runs, he's in control". There's something to the point that when Josh runs, he has more control over how he gets hit vs standing in the pocket where he's vulnerable when he's setting to throw.

We'll see. In fairness, I will say that most of the punishment Allen took against the Pats last night was IN the pocket, standing in to make a throw with a rusher bearing down on him, or maneuvering behind the LOS to throw. Judon and Uche are legit

LOL love your stories. Hypothetical I'm sure. You're exactly right about some of Allen's runs. I remember that one vs. the Lions. Then there was the stupidity against the Pats where he was surrounded by red shirts and launched himself up into the air. Damned near got his head taken off, in a totally legal hit no one could question. Even Allen said "that was bad, that one hurt". I think some of Allen's poor late game decision making that has cost us games, just may be influenced by taking those hits and getting his "bell rung" a little bit. Needing a breather to regroup mentally is one reason McDermott repeatedly says he wants an RB rotation, but the QB doesn't get a breather - so maybe he should act a bit less like an RB. I hope Allen got a stern talking-to at halftime.

LOL no. In the post game thread, I put up a couple screen shots (credit to Erik Turner of Cover1) that pretty well exemplify what I've been seeing. Some combination of Knox, McKenzie, and an RB have been open short to intermediate on the majority of our passing plays. Allen has not been looking to them. The answer to "where are these guys, and why aren't they contributing?" has often been, they're there, they're open, they're generally not being used. It looks as though Dorsey's idea of the answer to teams playing 2 high safeties, rush 3 or 4, flood the field with DBs, has been to send 3 WR on relatively slow developing routes, get at least 2 guys open very short who have all sorts of room (because the DBs are all busy covering 3 receivers). If Allen hits these guys in time, they can get the first down and very likely more. Allen has been literally overlooking his short options and trying to buy time and force the ball in to 3 WR covered by 7 defenders. Early in the year, with no dings and dents on him and pinpoint accuracy, it worked more often than not. But the answer to "where have those guys been?" is "right where Allen found them last night". Now - the Lions game was a little different. I think we were running a lot of 5 WR looks, spreading the field, and when McKenzie was open it was often open quite deep. But vs. the Patriots, he was running quite "conventional slot" routes and making good catches for 1st downs.

So Greg Cosell's usual Friday segment on OBL was spent dissecting the NE game. Worth a listen Tidbit. 10:25 in. Brown brought up that the Bills have run 4 total plays out of "ten personnel" (he means 10 personnel, 4 WR 1 RB and 0 TE). He says we haven't seen it in weeks, but I think we ran it against Detroit? Maybe I'm wrong, I assume Brown watches more film than I do... ....anyway, his point is we showed that personnel set 4x vs NE with Cook as the back, and we ran from it all 4 times - for 27 yds. Cosell gives a nice explanation of how this 4 WR personnel set influences run defense and can help break a bigger run play.

I'm not ready to annoint Cook yet. It's very important to the Bills to have a back who can pass protect well. Is Cook that guy? Uncertain. re: intermediate area I'd like to bring up this screenshot from the Cook 14 yd catch-and run again. I double-dip here because I'm a lazy butt - feel free to correct me anyone who's been watching more film, but I think you could find quite a few similar screen shots where the details are different - you could have McKenzie off to the L standing on the 22 hash or Knox in the flat - but the story is similar. The Patriots tried to pressure with, actually it looks like 3 guys and one assigned to mirror Josh Allen. All seven of their other defenders are BEHIND THE FIRST DOWN LINE, and most of them >10 yds off the LOS. Josh has been holding onto the ball for 2.72 seconds. For something like 1.72 seconds, Knox has been so freakin' open with so much green around him, he could plant a Christmas tree farm and shape the trees on the way to the 30 yd line. Cook was open earlier in the play, but Josh refused to pull the trigger earlier because he was looking deep. Thankfully Cook was "QB friendly" this time and shifted to an open passing lane, Allen found him, and he gained 14. He could have had more if Allen didn't wait until the two defenders said "oh, *****" and headed for Cook. For a QB like Kurt Warner or like Dorsey likely was in college, this is read and react territory. You've got 7 LB and DB in the vicinity with 3 receivers vs. 2 targets who leaked out from pass pro WIDE OPEN. You hit one of them ASAP, before the deep guys go "Oh, waitaminnut, who's got Cook? Who's got Knox?". Let them gain 14 or 20 or 28 yds and if it's only 7 yds, no problem, now it's 3rd and 1 and the football still belongs to the Bills. Then I believe Dorsey's idea is, after the D gets burned on 5 or 6 or 15 of these plays, the DC says "Oh, wait a minute, Allen is taking the checkdowns today and those guys have serious wheels and it's killing us, time for a different plan!". Then it's 5 DB on 3 WR which means one guy is singled and there's a better chance to scheme one open. We start seeing Dorsey roll out the passing concepts with intermediate routes again. And if the D doesn't adjust, who cares, keep running the same style of play until the D proves they can stop it. You've just gained 85 yds and you're posing in the endzone. This is where my ears pricked in the Fitzy interview when Josh said that the QB has to be an extension of how the OC sees the field and it's taken some time but he thinks they're getting to a good place now, or words to that effect. I think what Josh sees on the field is - "I know I can make this happen". He will try to force a throw in. And if he does have the protection or can extend the play, he's not entirely wrong. In fact, as Cook makes the catch and we're 3.6 seconds into the play, you can see that Diggs has beaten his guy deep, and Gabe Davis may be coming open on the crosser (though there's a defender who could read Allen's eyes and play robber, and the DB in trail could play in the ball). But then if he misses, we're in 3rd and 8 and a penalty or a misfire takes us off the field. TL;DR I'm coming to the feeling that what's been wrong with the offense isn't either on Dorsey or Josh but on a mismatch in philosophy and view of the field, and hopefully if Josh is right that they're getting to a good place now, things will start clicking.

Well, both tackles were beaten like drums, Allen was under duress most of the game, we gave up a strip sack with a vicious hit from Allen’s blindside, and lost a TD to a holding penalty. Some would say that’s not good, even if it’s understandable. Well and to someone else upthread, this is why I thought Sal’s arrow up on the OL would be controversial. Yeah, we had a good day in the run game, and yeah Quess playing hurt, but YIKEs

Um, are you serious in asking that question or just yanking my chain? Of course not. I quoted 3 paragraphs that made one specific point, out of many points made in the article, out of a very long article. The whole article would require scrolling through about 9 screens full of just writing.

Here's a snippet about Crowder from the Athletic Article on this weeks game:

Joe B article from The Athletic. Paywall