Beck Water

OK so I could be wrong on Crowder. Beane said specifically he has NOT ruled out a return (although, based on what guys like Bangedup have said, it not only sounds unlikely, it sounds undesireable for the player who needs to show out for a new contract, AND for the Bills who need to field guys who are at their best) After listening to one press conference I'm gonna belly up to the bar for my Plate Full Of Crow on Nyheim. After listening to the Hines press conference, I can not believe he will be any kind of a disruption or a problem to the locker room at all. Comes across as a very hardworking guy, grateful for the opportunity, and enthusiastic to do whatever he's asked to do.

The trade went down literally hours after the Colts fired Brady as their OC.

That could happen. Singletary sees an average of 14 "touches" (carries + targets) a game, and 47 snaps a game. That means on a lot of the remaining 33 snaps he's pass protecting in the backfield or at least chipping. Hines is going to need to come up to speed on our protections and the RB's role to the point where Josh really trusts him to make much of a dent, because Josh has made it clear that he loves him some Motor

The full quote (which concerns me) is "with Jordan still being nicked up and trying to work his way back" He later said Poyer is "day to day" but "nicked up and trying to work his way back" sounds more like week to week. So here's a contract question. Ike Boettger was an RFA last season and we tendered him. On PUP, does his contract toll if he never plays a snap, or no? IE is he still going to be under contract next season if he isn't able to play this season?

It's been discussed in the Crowder thread, but no, at least I don't; the guy was reported as having a broken, dislocated ankle (meaning a broken leg bone + a high ankle sprain); that's been reported as a 4-6 month rehab. He was seen bringing his kid to the Bills Halloween party while riding a scooter. Hines can be more useless than Moss if, instead of being a good soldier, he sulks if he's cast in a backup role. [Edit: no longer concerned on this point after his presser] I think he'll go in as the primary punt returner right away.

Athletic article about the trade: https://theathletic.com/3752929/2022/11/01/nyheim-hines-trade-bills-colts/?source=spotrac&pc=spotrac40off2 A little bit concerned by this. Bills have been giving their RBs about 17 touches per game. Motor gets 10 of them, Cook and Moss have been splitting the rest. A platoon of McKenzie, Crowder, and Shakir in the slot have been seeing about 10 targets per game Giving Nyheim 6 rushes and 6 targets in the air seems kind of ambitious here. There's only one ball, and I'd like to see Cook and Shakir continue to see some playing time. If he's upset that he's only been seeing 7-8 touches per game with the Colts, is he going to settle in OK with the Bills? [Edit to add: after watching Nyheim Hines introductory presser, I am no longer worried at all on this point.] It could just be me, but I don't think the Bills see Hines as a Singletary replacement as an every-down, majority of the snaps kind of player. Hines has been a 30-40% of the snaps guy his entire career. Motor has been a 60-70% of the snaps guy his career, 71% so far this year.

I think a lot of these guys are trying to build their own "brand" with podcasts and clothing lines and etc. For some of them who have already made a name for themselves as players, like Poyer, it makes more sense and I think fans have more interest/tolerance while they figure it out, if it isn't good from the start. For others I worry it's a distraction and they're kind of being exploited by a partner who proposes it to them. I think Moss would fall into that category. They have to take care of business and build their brand on the field first, and if they want to build a brand in the community start out with a cause or good works, like Knox Socks for the PUNT foundation or something like that. Or, have an angle that's a bit unique, for example Christianity is obviously important to Moss, a podcast that focused on that perspective might be interesting (does it cause confliction in locker rooms, contradictions between some of the hi-jinx athletes get up to off field and their professed faith, etc etc).

I haven't heard that Moss asked for a trade, but his twitter is full of re-tweets of various faith accounts "be patient, God's timeline is not yours" "I will turn around every bad situation in your life" "God is making a way for you, you can trust his perfect timing" so I think it's fair to say he was unhappy with his usage here, either Hope this works for the best for both of them.

It's a good question. The short answer, I think, is that the Colts don't see Moss as getting "nothing". To summarize, the Colts swapped their #4 RB and #4 WR who was underutilized in their system and superfluous as a PR, for our #3 RB (underutilized on a team that doesn't run much behind a poor run blocking OL) who has good hands as a receiving outlet in the flat and can pass protect, AND they get a draft pick to boot. They think they got a good deal. -Moss 5.3 y/a on 17 attempts for 91 yds slots in as better production than the Colts #2 back (30 attempts for 100 yds) -Hines was #4 on their RB list with 18 carries for 36 yds or 2 y/a -Hines was #4 WR for targets and yards with 25 receptions for 188 yds. They have several receivers/TE who have almost his productivity and they feel can step in. -He was their #1 PR man but they now have 2 players who can do that job. The Colts chose to re-up Hines who had by far his best years with Luck and Rivers at QB, but the change in OC from Nick Sirianni to Marcus Brady and at QB from Ryan to young pup Sam Ehlinger may factor into his declining production the last 2 years; it's also possible with Ehlinger taking over it's more important to the Colts to have a more productive RB who can pass protect, than it is to have an elusive fast receiver who can play some RB.

I don't know what to think of the Jets defense. On the one hand, they've got great stats. On the other hand, while they won against Denver and GB, those teams don't exactly have juggernaut offenses these days. I'm curious what the Jets DVOA rankings say about them. Jets opponents: Ravens 5-3 L Browns 3-5 W Bengals 4-4 L Steelers 2-6 W Dolphins 5-3 W Packers 3-5 W Broncos 3-5 W Patriots 4-4 L Looks as though the Dolphins are the only W against a team with a winning record, and they were playing their 2nd and 3rd string QB when the Jets beat them Bills opponents: Rams 3-4 W Titans 5-2 W Dolphins 5-3 W Ravens 5-3 W Steelers 2-6 W Chiefs 5-2 W Packers 3-5 W Have a defense that has similar stats, but playing against better opponents overall. I think that's the sort of thing DVOA is supposed to take into account? Of course, some like to do the "well, Jets beat the Dolphins, and Dolphins beat the Bills so..." thing

Just watched a Cover1 breakdown of the passing game vs Packers and that was his concluding statement. Just started watching the all-22 of that game and I agree. For example on the very first drive of that game, Josh forced a throw to Gabe that was damned near picked if Gabe hadn't defended it well. Similar theme against Pittsburgh - Josh didn't force it, but he threw in a way that the DB could jump the throw. Josh is taking trust throws too far - while he had two other receivers open for shorter gains. It's one thing to be aggressive, it's another to be wilful/arrogant. Hopefully this last game provided a gut check and he'll regroup.

Unless they re-sign him, I think his career as a Bill is done. Dr Kyle Trimble (Banged Up Bills) is usually a pretty good source. He wrote on the injury after it happened:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-jamison-crowder-suffers-broken-ankle-in-win-vs-ravens-will-likely-be-placed-on-injured-reserve/ Broken ankle.

Geez, the guy fumbled 1 time, in his first game, now it's "fumbles". You guys are a tough crowd.

I think fans have lost more faith in McKenzie than coaches. But we'll see.

I think he's good insurance at a couple of positions in case of injury. We'll see how it plays out as Hines gets integrated into the offense. I think he'll start out receiving punts, and then work his way into a solid role on offense, possibly about the same as the 30% of the snaps he saw in Indy but with more touches there. TBH I think both of these moves (Hines and Marlowe) are about depth after injuries plus a hedge against rookies that may not have won much trust yet with the coaches as with the fans. I think the hole they need to fill on offense is actually Crowders - the guy with the broken bone? Starting the season, the Bills had McKenzie and Crowder splitting snaps in the slot, with McKenzie the "You Will Eat Dust" guy and Crowder the "I will find space and get open" guy. They had Crowder receiving punts. I think they're not 100% sold on Shakir fielding punts. He's gone back for 8 in 3 games, with 3 wave-offs and a semi-muff that left us at the 4 yd line vs KC, then 1 nice return and 3 FC. That's a mixed bag. McDermott doesn't have the "EASY" button to push and put Hyde at PR this season. After Shakir got a start with McKenzie out, he seems to have gone back to his earlier snap count of ~25% of offensive snaps (McK getting about 50%). I could be wrong, but I think a significant number of Shakir's snaps have been outside with Diggs in the slot and against more physical DBs I don't think that went too well. Anyway, Crowder's is the vacant role, Shakir has been filling it, and I don't think the Bills want to count on his development to be on the pace they need. Time will tell and I could be wrong.

The reporter said he wanted to ask about James Cook, who had a really productive game on less than 10 touches in that game. Asked what did you think of his performance and how much trust has Cook built with you after his work in practice and now what he's putting on tape in games? (one of those "leading questions" that imply the desired answer) McD said he's had a "normal rookie start" with highs and lows and he's pushed through it and his teammates have helped him. Went on to say, that what Cook has done best, is that his practice habits have improved and that he's carried that over to games..that he's starting to see that every little detail matters and that the results come from the margins in such a close and highly competitive game that we play, that you've got to be on your game every week and you've got to prepare that way every day. Cook had a very productive game - 76 yds from scrimmage on 5 carries and 1 reception, but I don't quite think that was the endorsement or praise that was expected but whaddo I know.

Wow. That would be One Quick Study.

Only if they don't set before the snap. Up to 4 can be in motion provided they all set before the snap and only 1 is in motion at the snap

Serious question: do you see Singletary getting "the moon" in terms of a contract from another team? It's not his fault that he's been a 10-11 A/G back with the Bills and has had limited touches. But his best season was last season with 1000+ yds/scrimmage. What's the going rate for that on a second contract? This sounds brutal, but a lot of the NFL (including the Bills next year) run on the "Stars and JAGs" model. The salary cap combined with astronomical star salaries means the "middle class" of NFL teams - very solid reliable players who contribute consistently - doesn't have a lot of cash left on the table to feed them.

His attorney asked for probation. He got 3 years I guess that's something. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/britt-reid-kansas-city-chiefs-sentenced-prison-drunk-driving-crash-ariel-young-andy-reid/ https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article267952622.html

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/11/is-new-bills-rb-nyheim-hines-crazy-his-punt-return-mantra-says-it-all.html Andre' Roberts used to say "it helps if you have a screw loose"

Close to 70%. 45 snaps, 68%. Gore got 19 snaps, 29%. Agree on the carries.

It's harder for a rookie to see the field with the Bills now than it was 3 or even 4 years ago, but the ones who deserve it, play. A lot. Some people like to create conspiracy scenarios where McDermott and his coordinators fiendishly ignore the fantastic talent and play of (name rookie) only to keep a useless horrible veteran on the field ahead of them. Except that the position coaches and coordinators grade every snap by every player against what that player's job was on that play, and playing time goes accordingly.

When you put it that way, it sounds strange - but that's a strange way to put it. Marlowe was waived 2x in 2018. In 2019-2020 he was on the roster. He signed with the Lions, then the Falcons, in FA. So we let him walk in FA 2 years ago, then traded a 7th to get him back.