Beck Water

Thanks for your input! Yeah, it looked bad on TV. Good for Aghalor.

Oh, does it show NFL network? I did not know that!

🙄 Should the Bills give back the 10 target, 6 reception 96 yard game he had against Detroit, or the 5 target, 5 reception 44 yd game he had against New England, or the 9 target, 7 reception, 76 yd game he had earlier in the season against Miami? Look, one of two things is true. If the Bills really didn't plan on McKenzie being the slot receiver (the way Beane implied today) and he really isn't able to get open against zone (the way Josh implied today), then the minute Crowder broke his leg Beane should have been burning up the phone lines looking for someone to trade for or bring in to fill that role. McKenzie played 2 more games after that and before the trade deadline, and one of them was a very bad game for him - the Kansas City game. So there were plenty of snaps and plenty of film on his play at that point, and he'd already had an expanded role vs last year, before Crowder's injury. Time to "fish or cut bait"! So if you're right, and McKenzie shouldn't get more targets - and maybe you are, I'm certainly not behind center with 300 lb goliaths trying to kill me while I search for an open target to throw the ball - why wasn't a change made then? If McKenzie is the bum that so many here say he is (and you imply, excuse me if I'm reading into you), and he's not deserving of the high end of his utilization (which has worked pretty well when it's happened, actually),then it's a real problem that he's one of the only 4 receivers that have been on the roster for ~half the season. If that's the case, and maybe it is, then Orlovsky/Greg Cosell/Simms/even Sullivan all have a point that this isn't a Superbowl caliber offense. Because if changing the usage of the personnel we already have on the field or the play design/play calling can't make a difference - being giddy over the return of a 33 yr old guy who has been on the couch seems like a pretty slim reed. I say all that having gone on record that if it helps Josh to have Beasley back, I'm all for it, and he still looks quick in the feet and "surgical" in his cuts.

Yeah, Josh seemed almost giddy. So if adding Beasley is the missing piece and it helps Josh, I'm glad, but I think there are a lot of questions raised.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/12/cole-beasley-back-at-practice-for-bills-gm-says-i-trust-his-hands-video.html Beane is indulging in a bit of revisionism here. Last year McKenzie played about 1/4 of the offensive snaps - 24%. Prior to Crowder's injury, McKenzie was playing 50% of the snaps, to Crowder's 33% - so he had an expanded role before Crowder went out. After Crowder's injury, McKenzie has played 58% of the snaps. So not a big difference vs. the difference between last season and the first part of this season. I wish our press would ask Beane a few more questions, like be prepared to point that out and say "does this mean that Shakir hasn't developed as you anticipated?" "are you saying that McKenzie is not able to get open against zone defense?" and follow up "if that's the case, why did you wait until now to re-sign a retired player instead of looking to make a move for a player after Crowder was injured or before the trade deadline?" I think Beane deserves a little scrutiny and some tough questions about the team's skill player and OL situation. Note: not to be confused with nostalgia for Sullivan, who didn't ask tough questions he just asked dick questions.

OK, I think it's here: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/12/14/23508393/cole-beasley-news-bills-buccaneers-film-dolphins-game-week-15 I will say this, he made some grabs in those clips, that we haven't seen. Of course, the ideal is for the receiver and the ball to be positioned so that acrobatics aren't needed, but it's nice to see some acrobatics.

Are they still offering that 7 day free trial? Does that work? the NFL app seems to not pay attention to VPN location but use the location of the physical phone (which is harder to spoof) and Watching the games only works on a mobile device, not a computer So I'm thinking it would stop working?

A Zen Koan! How does the receiver catch 69.1% of his targets, when he can not catch the ball?

https://www.patspulpit.com/2022/12/13/23507805/nfl-nflpa-review-devante-parkers-removal-patriots-cardinals-game Parker is not pleased: Meanwhile Bill Belicheck thinks there's nothing too unusual in a player who can't stand up straight:

To your points: I do think you have a valid point that we are not making as much use of scheming guys open - pick plays, rub routes, a bunch of the razzle-dazzle stuff we did last season. Josh has been saying a couple times recently that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field, which to me, implies that at times this season he has NOT been aligned with the OC in how he's seeing the field and seeing the plays. I think Dorsey's idea of how to get Davis more open, is to distribute the ball around to other receivers and the TE, thus causing the defense to think "Oh, Hey, we better stop those guys from going off!" and take the heat off Davis. Absolutely Motor and Cook (Cook is sometimes in the wrong place) are open, Knox is usually open, McKenzie is open more often than not on the slot-type routes. We also need to solidify our run game. I'm not sure it's so much on Josh, or on Dorsey, as on a sort of philosophical/vision mis-match between the two, at least that's how I interpret what Josh has several times said recently.

Then I'm gonna say this, meaning it in the nicest most constructive way....in that instance, maybe a QB needs to "get over himself" and change how he looks at the field.

This is exactly the opposite of the point I was trying to make. The point is, wherever he is on the field (sideline or middle) teams are focusing their coverage on Davis and on Diggs. You can't "throw him open" when teams are focused on taking him away. What has to happen, IMO, is to distribute the ball more to receivers NOT named Diggs and Davis. Once defenses have other WR to cover, that will take the heat off Davis, and THEN Josh can find him. Watch film. You see Shakir open and un-targeted? It could be. Or it could be a numbers game, where we're trying to put 5 WR on the field every Sunday, we have 2 WR on IR, Gentry has used up all 3 and Brown 2 of 3 "free" callups, and they don't feel KeeSean Johnson, Marquez Stevenson, and Isaiah Coulter were ready to contribute in a game.

For some, yes - and not necessarily who you'd think. But there have also been receivers open.

In my numbers geek, focused on analytics, been watching football for over 50 years sense of things, I agree with you. I believe all these guys would say the right stuff about winning is what matters, blah blah but I kind of have the sense that Josh set out the year with some personal goals - show he's one of the top passers in the league, make Diggs one of the top WR in the league, help Gabe Davis earn a big contract. Not a definitive source, but in Ty Dunne's show, Isaiah McKenzie said he understands that Diggs has to get the ball first and then Gabe has to get the ball. He didn't, to me, say this in any kind of a critical way, just 'that's how it is'. But I'll be critical, and say, that's really not an effective way to play against a quality defense if that's in fact been part of Josh's mindset. It really needs to be "take what the defense gives you, don't force it". Because you're right, when the defense realizes it's being dealt "death by 1000 cuts" and it had better change and stop them, either you're already in the endzone and winning the game OR they adapt and move to stop those cuts and then the splash plays become what the defense gives you.

I mean, it depends upon what down and distance we're in? If we're 3rd and 16, no, it doesn't. Beasley looks slow to me in those film clips - even slower than last season. His cuts though 😍 and his quick feet 😍 - he still looks "surgical there. Ask and you shall receive. Here are Beasley's splits from 2021 by down and Yards to go: Overall catch % 73.2%, 6.2 y/tgt (per target, not per reception). You can see the Bills got the most mileage targeting Beasley on 1st and 10 or 2nd and 4-9: over 80% catch. 1st downs on 1 out of 3 receptions on 1st and 10. But Just a Minute! As far as "what we've had", I'll bite the snake and bring in the same for McKenzie this year: Overall catch % 69.1%, 6.9 y/tgt (not: per target, not per reception). You can see that when the Bills targeted McK on 1st down, they also got great mileage - again, Over 80% catch on 1st and 10, 2nd and 4-6, but also on 2nd and 10+, and 3rd 1-6. 1st downs on 1 out of 3 receptions on 1st and 10, 4 out of 5 targets on 3rd and 1-3, 6 out of 1 targets on 3rd and 4-6. That's pretty dang close to Beasley, honestly: catch % of 83.3% vs 86.5%, and 1st down on 1 out of 3 receptions. The main difference is the number of targets being less than half what Beasley got. Just for fun, let's do Dawson Knox as well: Overall catch % 74.0%, 7.4 y/tgt (again, per target, not per reception). 75% catch % on 1st and 10, and 1D on 1 out of 3 targets. HUH. I'm sure this will be well received and the intelligent erudite posters here will consider it and modify their views accordingly. (No I don't. I kid, I kid). I'm glad to see Beasley back, and if Josh trusts him and targets him when he's on the field and it takes some pressure off Gabe and Diggs and gets the Bills offense humming along again, I'm All For It. But longer term, Josh may need to develop a bit different "field vision" or work on developing a better rappore with receivers younger than 33 not named Cole Beasley, because these guys have been open more than they're targeted (to my eyes), and when they're targeted they've been catching the ball at a pretty good rate as best as one can tell from low numbers.

I think you are correct.

They don't necessarily give you the X's and O's understanding, but I endorse the recommendation. I must have bought about 5 copies by now. I can't keep them around, guests keep borrowing them and then I never see them again. It's a good introduction to the Chess Match of football. There are a bunch of Football Academies online that provide breakdowns of offensive plays, route concepts, and protections as well as defenses and coverages. For film breakdown, I like Cover1 JT O'Sullivan "The QB School" https://www.youtube.com/@TheQBSchool https://theqbschool.com Kurt Warner "QB Confidential" https://www.youtube.com/@kurtwarnerqbc - he has stepped up his youtube game and is much clearer than he used to be I used to like Brett Kollman "The Film Room" a lot but I feel he's kind of become a victim of his own success recently with his Whiskey and his sponsors - he seems to feel he has to choose a narrative to make each piece interesting, and then cherry-picks stuff to support it. You can find stuff where you're "well that aged well" about how "Mac Jones terrifies me" "the Dolphins and Chiefs are the same team". You can also find some really good stuff about run fits and his stuff from a couple years ago is IMO better. Baldy's Breakdowns are always worth watching (twitter #baldysbreakdowns) and despite my occasional concerns regarding his current replicant status, Jim Kubiak's weekly articles breaking down the Bills offense for TBN are always worth reading. What worked for me was to go from film breakdowns of actual plays from teams I was interested in, backwards into looking up the route concepts and protections and defensive coverages. Like I saw the finished product, and then wanted to know and understand the pieces that went into it. IMHO one of the best ways to learn used to be to subscribe to Gamepass and pick a play, then run it in slowmo and see what everyone is doing NFL+ has ruined this - no slomo, can no longer choose an individual play. I started out learning the game in more depth in the '80s and 90's when my family used to VCR Bills games and mail them to me and I could watch the same play over and over and in slo-mo and start to pick things out. Buffalo Rumblings used to have a bunch of good stuff too.

Well, yeah, directly. But if a player says "I want off your practice squad", a team will typically release them. Just as the team is not required to keep them on the PS all 17 games, they aren't required to stay there. They can take their ball and go home, so to speak. Then the team releases them, because they need the PS guys to run their scout team and there's always another guy in their Rolodex (dating myself), Then the player signs with a different team's PS. You're correct that team B is not supposed to be recruiting players from team A's practice squad, but players and coaches will talk and whaddarya gonna do. I can't remember what team it was, but I remember something like that happening a few years back and there was a mild grumble session about it but both teams moved on. Doesn't apply to Beasley of course since Tampa released him after he retired on October 5th. I do kind of wonder, if Beasley reached out around Thanksgiving, if the Bills waited a bit to bring him in to be sure enough time had elapsed that it didn't look like some kind of tampering with Tampa

Well, bear in mind that if the team huddles, the other team really shouldn't be hearing the play call - so what would the point be to change it? It only becomes an issue if there's an audible at the line of scrimmage, or if the team is running no-huddle. And in ordinary years where there is plenty of crowd noise, even the audible is not necessarily clear on film. Then there's the point that the same or very similar verbiage may encode different options, depending upon the rest of the call. As an added wrinkle, a team may call several audibles including a code word (that does change weekly) to indicate which is the actual audible vs. the dummy call So it's not necessarily so straightforward to decode, but yes, for a team that is resolute and thorough in its prep, it can provide an advantage and this was especially an issue in 2020 with minimal crowd noise and clearer audibles on film. For that reason, teams seeking the maximum competitive advantage should change up their audibles weekly, but I don't believe they all do. That's why a guy who knows the system and can help decode what info is available, can be an advantage to an opponent. Of course, I could be mistaken on any point and I welcome correction.

I actually really respect Beasley quite a bit more than I expected, from listening to that. He acknowledged that there were things he'd like back, that he didn't handle as well as he could have, and that he reached to Beane and to McDermott to talk things through. He gave an example of one of the family interactions that upset him (a child telling his 7 year old son he couldn't come to his birthday party because his mom "didn't like you") that I think would be hard for any parent to take. I'm hopeful that however much he plays, he'll be a good and steadying influence in the locker room and perhaps raise the level of WR play overall. And of course if he plays and contributes even better.

Actually, no, I surely didn't know that play calls change every game. I know that at one point, I think in 2019, Daboll was experimenting with 1 word play calls so the Bills could go no-huddle but change the plays easily at the line. Those 1 word play calls changed every week. The players were talking about how much work it was to memorize which words were representative of which play calls. And of course if they forgot, confusion resulted. It didn't last very long. Erhardt Perkins offenses can have relatively simple playcalls like "F-left 72 Ghost/Tosser" (F-left is the formation, 72 is the protection, Ghost/Tosser identifies the routes), but Josh Allen said that Daboll (and now Dorsey's) play calls tended to be lengthy. And as alluded to above, even if you change the play calls every game, mapping the formations, protections, and routes onto the new words is non-trivial. So my understanding is most teams don't, in fact, change the playcalls for every game. Some have said that in the AFCCG in 2020, the Chiefs appeared to have our offensive playcalls and that this may have been the result of all season in relatively empty stadia so that the offensive assistants were able to watch film and map the verbiage onto the formations and plays. For anyone interested, here's a video of Cam Newton on a talk show going through a playcall. Both Carolina and NE ran EP offenses.

One more time: Beasley was on the practice squad for Tampa. Primer about Practice Squad. As usual the best way to get correct info is to post wrong info, so if I'm wrong on any point I feel certain several will correct me. -Practice squad players are free agents. They can sign with any other team at (almost*) any time. So even if Tampa had not terminated Beasley's practice squad contract (which they did, after he retired), he could have said "See Ya, I'm gonna go sign a practice squad contract with Buffalo instead of you, Bye!". Exception* is 6 days prior to a scheduled game with that team. -If another team signs a player off a different team's practice squad (which they can do at any time, EXCEPT within 6 days of playing that team), then the claiming team has to sign the player to their active roster, and pay the player as though he's on the active 53 man roster for a minimum of 3 weeks. But the player does not actually have to go. This happened to the Bills a couple times in the "Bad Old Days" - they tried to claim a player off another team's practice squad to their active roster and that player said "Nah, I'm Good". -If the player has been signed to the 53 man roster, then if he's cut he must go through waivers before he can be re-signed to the practice squad of the team who cut him. Waivers are the part of practice squad signings/elevations that are not optional: you're claimed on waivers, that's your new team. After the trade deadline, all players (including vets) go through waivers.

Well, that was kind of the point of my original post. He's supposed to be a very smart guy and he was on our practice squad being prepared to be called up for injury, so he likely knows the defensive play calls (also carryover from last year, when he started). And he was on the scout team, so he would have had the opportunity to pick up the offensive play calls. So yes, I think he probably does know quite a lot.

In that video clip, the receiver before Beasley appears to be wearing #81 Who is #81 on the Bills roster? I had a good ol' look at https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/ and can't figure that out (Beasley looks sharp)