Beck Water

This is not doing Warner credit as a QB. No, he was not a running QB, and yes, he was coached to stay in the pocket, but he was one of those "teflon" guys we saw like a younger Tom Brady or Drew Brees - he had that uncanny body sense of where defenders were and could just take a step and make the defender miss or duck and let the defender sail over him then make the throw. In addition, how to read defensive coverages post-snap and identify the best option has not changed. It's not a "style of play" thing, it's seeing the leverage, understanding what the defense is giving you, and taking it. Look. Here's the series from the very first play Warner breaks down (click to enlarge). We converted 2 1st Downs, then Punted. Miami then proceeded to go on a 14 play drive, including a 4th down conversion, ending in a FG. The play Warner breaks down is 1st and 10 incomplete to McKenzie. Allen is going for the "kill shot" to the WR running the deep over route, who happens to be McKenzie on this play. But the CB is initially dropping to cover the over route McKenzie is running, and there's a safety back there as well who closes by the time Allen pulls the trigger. (Eventually, Allen gets the CB to bite and move forward to cover Diggs and open up the deep route to McK, but by then the safety has closed) Allen he has three, count them, THREE, receivers who are wide open early in the play, including 2 underneath guys who could gain some yards, and Diggs, who is our BEST receiver no question, open as ***** and past the 1st down marker. McKenzie is the "kill shot" if Allen completes the throw, but he's actually the best covered of the WR. Allen throws to him, the pass is broken up by the corner we see dropping back to take it away. Allen hits Diggs on time instead, we get a first down and maybe some more, we keep moving the ball down the field and at least wind up with points. He isn't "coaching Josh down", he is pointing out that Josh has options to sustain drives that he's not taking. It's the difference between NEEDING that drive at the end of the game (and the DPI that might not be called) to win, vs. going into the 4th with a comfortable lead. People complain that Dorsey isn't "scheming guys open" or they "see no evidence" that there are open guys underneath that Allen isn't hitting. Here are 3 WR schemed open including Diggs, and Allen is choosing the least open guy. People complain that the OL isn't giving Allen enough pass protection. Well, Allen has more than enough pocket time to throw to Diggs, he's asking more of his OL so that he can wait for a deeper option. The OL would look a lot better in pass pro, too, if Allen would take some of these easier shots. Moreover, the tape is out - it doesn't matter that's McKenzie back there. It could be Davis, it could be Diggs. Allen will almost always choose his deepest option if he thinks there's a chance, and teams know it and cheat their coverage that way which is why the deep options aren't working as well as they did earlier in the season (and why we keep stalling out and punting early in games). It's why you see Singletary and Knox with enough green around them to plant a ***** Christmas Tree farm, and why you see Diggs, one of the best and most scary receivers in the league, with so much space around him. This is really Football 101 and critiquing Warner as an old fuddy-duddy whose football time has passed when he points this out misses the fair, IMHO. Last but not least, why on earth would you choose the judgement of that bloviating never-was Rex Ryan, over a 2x 1st team all-pro with 3 SB appearances and a SB ring?

So, I've been watching Warner's breakdowns of Allen since he came into the league (Allen that is) and I think you're missing his points here. He says right up front, he calls Allen the human "GCP" (Game Changing Play) because he can do just that at any time. He acknowledges that as a player, he did not have the ability to do that, so he had to win the game mentally by reading the defense and taking the easy throws. (He also didn't have Allen's ability to evade defenders). He states that what he's doing, is breaking down the film from that POV, what easy options are the offensive plays designed to open up? The easy option is always to stay in the pocket and take the throw if there is a pocket, and a QB who is running is open to that defender he's not aware of plastering him for a strip sack, not that that ever happens to Allen - Oh, Wait. So basically, you're objecting to Warner doing exactly what he says he's going to do, up front at the beginning. You're incorrect that Warner doesn't like Allen's style. Over time, Warner's breakdowns of Allen have changed DRAMATICALLY as he recognizes that Allen has the physical abilities to do all sorts of things he couldn't do himself, and make them work. He's actually kind of in awe of Allen, now, I think. But he also has a valid point that if Allen doesn't remain aware of his "Easy!" buttons and train himself mentally to take them at times, he can find himself struggling and throwing picks when the defensive coverage is better than usual, or the pass rush is fiercer than usual, or the weather sucks more than usual. We have seen this when the offense has struggled as Allen has been working his way back from his elbow injury and trying to tone down his picks. Yes, I've appreciated that in Warner's analysis of what's gone wrong with Denver's offense - he critiques the WR route running as well. I can see that in some of the routes Gabe Davis and McKenzie are running, they are NOT supposed to be where they end up, but I haven't been able to sort out what's going wrong. Anyway, I think there's a lot of value here especially for people who are worried about Dorsey's play design and play calling. The point is that the play design is opening options. Sometimes the options are there and Allen isn't taking them; sometimes the play design is sound but the execution is flawed.

Thanks! Warner has improved these a lot and they're now much easier to follow. Great breakdown.

Ah, OK, thanks for the clarification on both points. The Bills started the season with an even lower utilization of Diggs. I think they were hoping to give him breathers to keep him healthier into the playoffs. If a guy is playing winded, he may be less nimble and able to protect himself.

You guys do see that this thread is more than a year old?

I do not want to see even a healthy Klein attempting to chase down and tackle Fields. Milano please.

Someone posted under the pics that they're from 2016

LOL no problem. I think Cover1 did a post-game analysis on Youtube. Might have been a good one in TBN; Joe B's postgame mostly talks about how great Milano was but not much about the how and why of what the Bills did. I'll keep looking myself, because I seem to recall that Frazier did throw some wrinkles into his normal 4-2-5 The thing that's stood out to me when I've heard opponents talking about Justin Fields is, they all talk about how fast he is, including guys who have played Lamar Jackson regularly.

So you might be interested in reading up on some of the stuff written about how the Bills defended the Ravens earlier this season. The thing about putting AJ Klein on the field is you're typically taking a faster guy off of it. In 2020, SF was Milano's first game back from IR and they had him on a snap count I think. So no alternative. Typically Milano is one of our best defensive players (esp. with Von Miller hurt) and I don't think it would serve the Bills well to take him off the field. Interesting question with Justin Fields: where does he usually get his yards? My impression is he gets to the edge and heads up field, not much up the middle. I think Montgomery runs between the tackles, though, so it's not as though you can abandon covering the middle of the field.

Didn't want to start a new thread for this. Nice film piece from Cover1 breaking down Dawson Knox game against the Dolphins.

Diggs overall on the season to date, 78% of the snaps. That's lower than last year or 2020, when he was on the field 89%. Varies game by game from 64% to 95%. Varies. Justin Jefferson on the field, 96% of the snaps. Career high, previously 82%, 89% Tyreek Hill 76% of the snaps A. St Brown 78% Davante Adams 96%, prev with GB 85% Michael Pittman 94%, prev 78%, 88% It varies and obviously some of the top guys are on the field more, but some about the same amount.

Question: how do you tell it's him taking himself off the field, and not a signal from sideline or a word from another player as substitutions are made? Diggs was the field almost every play. 86% of the snaps vs. the Dolphins. He was not on the field for a whole 11 snaps out of 78 snaps. I don't think those 11 snaps were "numerous times after receptions". I think for the most part, they're dictated by the play and the personnel package it requires - for example a heavier set with 1 RB 2 TE or 2 RB 1 TE, where we only have 2 WR on the field (even then, the 2 WR may include Diggs more often than not). But sometimes they want Davis and a slot or gadget guy, or (when he was active) Davis and Shakir. I would love to have a source for the personnel sets the Bills use but I'm too cheap to pay for SIS or the like.

Well played, Sir! Well played!

Chris Simms unbuttoned on the Mia at Buffalo game Still thinks the Bills "aren't dominant on defense" and just depend on Josh Allen Magic to win. Agree? Disagree? I don't get it. That ain't fearlessness in them pics that's foolishness. Now put a goal line and an endzone, then it's fearlessness

That's one of those where I wish I could see one of those little moving diagrams. I think Allen had to make his decision and throw before it was clear Diggs was gonna shed his defender like that

Which is why it would not make a lot of sense to move Brown to guard as some are suggesting (maybe that's in another thread)

If you wanna play "shoulda coulda woulda" how about Creed Humphrey going 2 picks after Boogie Basham?

I posted on this in the game week thread. Either they weren't happy at all with how Bryant played in his limited snaps against the Fish (10 I think) OR They're very confident Jordan Phillips can go OR They're very un-confident in the progress of Bates ankle and Morse head

I'm not sure I agree with giving him a pass on the Strip sack. It's like, yeah, it's extending the clock on the play a long time, but that's Allen's game. Hopefully he continues to improve. I hope he won't need surgery and will be able to put in a full off season of strength training at an NFL level this year.

Apologies if I missed this up-thread: I did not see Brandin Bryant being the one cut to make room for Boettger. Either the Bills are very confident in Oliver having come out of the game OK and Jordan Phillips being ready to go... ....or they were not happy with how Bryant played in his 10 snaps against the Dolphins ...or they are not confident at all about Bates ankle and Morse's head I'm worried about that last possibility.

I give no ***** if Sammy is sad. He's laughing all the way to the VIP section of the club with his near-$70M career earnings. Last time I saw him on the field with Green Bay, he looked like a freakin' tight end. Fat Kelvin, move over!

I didn't see the Jags particularly as a "let down game". I could be misremembering, but I didn't feel we'd gone over the top, all out against the Dolphins the previous week - not that we didn't play hard and play well, but we were coming off a bye week and it seemed like a regular, solid win.

And Baldy on our defense. This was a preview of the Mia game so it features the Jets

DANG! Will you look at that release off the line by Quintin Morris. I kind of want to see more of that guy! Here's a "Baldy Breakdown of the entire GWD. Excellent play, but a point to ponder: the DPI against McKenzie was totally legit IMO and to Baldy (which likely means more). But, there was an equally legit DPI in the EZ against the Giants that was NOT called and clearly lost the game for them. It's one of these "was it there in time/wasn't it?" plays - Diggs eventually gets open against Xavian Howard on the R side of the field. But, I think Josh has to throw it before it develops enough to be sure. Anyway, we got the DPI and it worked, so....

We were on our heels against the run to my eye, because we'd made up our mind to limit the pass I think one might consider that the Bills D made adjustments, and the Fish thought they could have more success passing against those adjustments. And, they kind of did, right? to the tune of 13 unanswered points in the 3Q But the difference in run and pass wasn't as extreme as you might think. First half, Fish were 126 yds on 14 rush attempts but 8 of 16 on pass attempts for 91 net yards passing When you take out Mostert's 67 yd attempt, 59 yds. Second half, 63 yds on 11 rush attempts, even more effective (except we didn't let them break a big run), but 9 of 14 for 126 yds net yards passing. It's not like they "abandoned" the run. They had like 47% run in the first half, and 44% in the 2nd half.