Beck Water

Before we annoint Rapoport for especially accurate info, one might want to watch this: He's going on about how Allen was "not able to practice Friday when the reporters were out there which means 3 days of no practice" (a lot to infer from the 5-10 minutes the reporters say they get on Friday). Then "also not able to be out there mentally, not able to go through the plays, go through the game plan". But there were videos out there of Allen walking through the clubhouse at the end of practice, wearing a red shirt (albeit not a Jersey) and carrying or wearing a QB wristband, which implies to me he was in fact mentally going through the plays and the game plan in some fashion, either from the sideline or from behind the QB. So.....

What information is this based on?

Are you referring to Chris Brown on One Bills Live, or who? It's true that Davis doesn't seem to be able (so far) to be stepping into the role of a #2 WR. He is hit-or-miss. I have to respectfully disagree that Josh is not taking the checkdowns "like ever". First of all if we look at this Bills receiver table I put up elsewhere (if you click it gets larger) we see that Singletary and Cook together have the 2nd most targets on the team. I think 80% of those are checkdowns in the flat. I didn't put up YBC and YAC stats, but for Singletary, 12 YBC and 195 YAC confirm this. Where I think there's a better point to be made, is that Josh seems to overlook the almost sure shot to the NFL-open receiver on the short or intermediate route (TE, RB, WR) who is short of the chains or EZ but open enough, especially immediately, to have a very good chance of making the 1st down or making the score - or at least leaving us in 3rd and short instead of 3rd and 10. If it's Diggs, he'll take it because "when you have a guy like Diggs on your team you have to find ways to get him the ball", but Diggs usually isn't that open. I think it's a fair point you make that we don't have a true #2 or "big catch" slot guy any more, although, last year Beasley seemed to be pissed off about being targeted when he was going to be "lit up" by 2 or more guys. IN THEORY, Knox should be able to be "open when he's covered" across the middle, somewhat like Kelce is. I also have a hunch that the guys not named Diggs who are playing the slot are open a lot more than they're targeted.

OK. I just found it confusing because the authors reference a group with a different name "ProFootballDoc", but Chao IS that group with a different name, so it's like they're trying to give their opinion more clout by referencing themselves as a separate entity IYKWIM? Also, Trimble is associated with Chao as one of his "injury spotters", and what Chao says above strongly echos the analysis and conclusions Trimble wrote, but doesn't give him credit or delve into the reasoning behind his conclusion (about the next 3 games being on a short timeline etc etc) Chao was the San Diego Chargers team doctor for many years and was somewhat controversial: https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2013/4/22/4251626/san-diego-chargers-doctor-david-chao-has-chaotic-past is a pretty good summary That doesn't mean Chao isn't genuinely very knowledgeable about football injuries, from years of diagnosing and treating NFL football players, but it does mean instead of doing injury analysis as a sideline to a thriving medical or PT practice, it's kind of become his main gig. So he has a motivation to "milk" injury news to drive clicks, if that makes sense? And also to try to make his opinion seem weightier and more definitive so more people will read it. I don't want to sound like I'm dismissing their analysis, like I said, he is very knowledgeable about football injuries from almost 2 decades of treating (or mistreating, as the case may be) them.

I've actually wondered if that's an underdiscussed effect of the running Josh does and the hits he takes. Valid point IMHO and would explain why a QB who normally has exemplary field vision and decision making suddenly "craps the bed". The coaches like RBs to be able to come out of the game partly to clear their head after all the hits they take, but the QB can't come out.

The thing is, if the coaches can't self-analyze after the loss to the Jets and make necessary adjustments and do whatever is necessary to get through to Josh WITHOUT the injury, they really aren't championship-caliber coaches.

No.

Thanks! I think you're absolutely correct that better pass defenses play a huge role. Part of that role is, when you're playing a bad team with a poor pass defense, you can get away with some bad decisions and turnovers because you're still gonna get a ton of other opportunities and boatrace the team like we did the Rams and Titans and Steelers. But if the Bills want to be Championship Caliber, then they have to train themselves and play like they're playing a great defense where 1-2 stupid interceptions that take points off the board and give the opponent opportunities, can be the difference between victory and defeat. What do you mean by "other factors beyond simply being aggressive", especially with regard to the 2 INT vs the Packers and the 2 INT vs the Jets? It's a valid point that there's a fine line between playing fearless/aggressive and willing to take shots (which we want) vs. being aggressive to the point of reckless.

Still aggressive decision making. vs GB, one was a short pass at the goal line. He had McKenzie wide open on the R. Early in the play, I think a plausible pass to Cook short of the goal line but trust an RB to make it in. But Josh was locked onto Gabe Davis who was coming across the back of the endzone, well covered by Zaire Alexander. "I was trying to dirt it" c'mon Josh, if you want to dirt a ball, throw it towards the R sideline, McKenzie was there and had the defender boxed out behind him like a basketball guard, Safe. Or just throw it through the back of the endzone, as you say, it was a short pass from the GB 3 yard line. It's 3rd down, we get a field goal and kick off. A decision to dirt it in the crowded middle of the field was a stupid decision. So was a decision to "float" a ball to Knox when Josh acknowledges he didn't have a clear view of the field because a DE was in his way. It was 2nd down. Throw it away, 3rd down. Or throw on an arc to Knox and trust him to make it "his ball or no one's ball". Someone will no doubt hate this analogy, but it's like a hunter shooting a cow or a dog (or worse, a person) and excusing him or herself because he didn't have a clear view of the shot, there was a tree in the way. "Be Sure of Your Target" is Gun Safety 101: "You're responsible for knowing what's in front of your target, near your target and beyond your target. If you aren't certain about any of the three, don't take the shot."

This is just me, but I don't think there is anything "sudden" about the refusal here. I think Josh has been playing aggressive all season. The thing is, when it works and we score TDs in 3 plays from scrimmage starting at our 2 yard line as in the Steelers game, everyone is ready to canonize Josh. Someone ( @HoofHearted?) said that the Steelers game may have been one of the worst things to happen to Josh. He had 19.7 yds per completion in that game, AND he threw a bad interception to Levi Wallace (the target was Gabe Davis) from the Pitt 21 that took points off the board when the score was 10-7. He threw it on a line as though Wallace were not anywhere near Davis, when in fact Wallace was between Davis and the ball and closing fast - throwing on an arc Davis could have run under would have probably been a touchdown. Same pattern of INT he threw to Knox vs. the Jets. My guess is that when their young QB throws for 432 yds and the team wins 38-3, Dorsey and McDermott can't read the Riot Act too effectively to Josh over whatever the hell that interception throw was to Davis. They can say "Josh, you have to take care of the football; Josh, you hurt the team when you take points off the board; Josh, we could have used that touchdown when we were winning only 10-3, it could have changed the game. Josh, you can't do that." and Josh will hear "Josh, football; Josh, points; Josh, touchdown, winning, changed game! Josh, do that!" The media MVP clamor and fan adulation must be louder than the coaches. There are a few INTs that can't be helped - deflections and such - or the receiver bobbles it and it's charged to the QB (though in those cases, the throw may have been poorly placed or had too much "pepper" on it - I thought for sure that one great catch Singletary made was gonna be deflected and picked). But I think most of Josh's 8 interceptions have been poor decisions. At least 5 of them.

Waitaminnut, Waitaminnut, Waitaminnut! That video Brown posted and then also this one Never mind the brace - what's that he's wearing on his LEFT forearm? Isn't that a QB wristband, with the playcalls and all? And he's wearing a RED jersey? I don't care what the media saw, and maybe he wasn't "participating in practice", but why would Allen be wearing a QB wristband, a red jersey, and walking through the fieldhouse in the same direction as players who have just come from practice like Kumerow if he weren't out at practice in some capacity? He must at least be standing behind Keenum taking mental reps.

Okay Goys and Birls I was off reading on another thread about how we should cut Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie when we bring in OBJ. Then of course the current height of TBD fashion is to dunk on Isaiah McKenzie And Gabe Davis seems to be lining up as the next TBD whipping boy. I thought I'd put together some factoids, so here ya go: WR performance table for Bills as of Week 8. If you click the thing it will enlarge. If y'all might want to recommend benching, cutting, etc. thought that might be useful - or Naaaaaaaah??? 🐐 Keep in mind that Gabe Davis does legit get some high degree of difficulty throws where he's well covered or has a safety closing fast. And of course, these guys can't throw themselves the ball.

Welcome! When Josh Allen sprained his L shoulder (AC joint) against the Raiders, he was seen wearing a restrictive "linebacker brace" the next 2 weeks against the Titans and the Chiefs. He was "off" passing, typically missing high (Hasselbeck explained that's typical for that injury and why), until, during the 4Q against the chiefs, it seemed like he took it off despite some apparent protests from trainers, and all of a sudden could pass. I think next game or 2 he was taped up. Anyway, I can't imagine an elbow brace that would be restrictive enough to be protective, but that wouldn't mess with some aspect of Josh's delivery given the multiple arm angles he uses.

At one time, I had the impression that Carucci was a bit of an insider and got a lot of stuff from someone inside OBD. But I think a lot of that went away when Beane took a broom and swept the FO clean then only let people he vetted back in. But that's just my impression, I could be wrong. FWIW, here's Dr. Kyle Trimble PT take on the injury - it has a lot of diagrams explaining the elbow structure, where the ulnar collateral ligament is located, where the ulnar nerve is and what impact that would have etc. He also gives his opinion on the time Allen might miss. https://bangedupbills.com/2022/11/08/josh-allens-elbow-injury/

Do you feel Vic Carucci is still particularly well connected in the Buffalo Bills locker room? Allen missed 5 weeks his rookie year (4 games plus a bye week). It's a reasonable thought that if this injury is thought to be "less severe" than his 2018 injury, he might miss 3 or 4 weeks instead of 5. But there are a lot of specifics that aren't known

It was on his R arm when he was returning from the UCL injury. @Golden, where is this quoted from? It's kind of confusing, because the "by" authors are the ones who style themselves "pro football docs" but, they reference themselves in the quote. Then there's also a quote from Alaina Getzenberg, our ESPN beat reporter, which I don't think Pro Football Docs would quote. So I'm confused.

Huh? Sauce was right there. Davis put out an arm to hold him off. The minute Gabe goes up for the ball, he loses any leverage

I find myself in strong agreement here. One point: you say "maybe he and Dorsey will be forced to emphasize the short game more", and then correctly note that Josh has been passing over (pun intended) the open short/intermediate receivers for well-covered throws to Diggs or Davis downfield. I'm not sure how much of that is Dorsey and how much of that is Josh. In Dorsey's presser, he made a point, several times in several ways, about distributing the ball to different receivers. Yeah, he did the statutory McDermott "got to put the players in better positions to succeed" thing but, off the top of my head, Dorsey said: -said he looks first at how many receivers had multiple receptions because the offense works better when the ball is distributed to multiple players -said he emphasizes to Josh once the play is called, look at the reads and progressions and go where they take you, don't focus on one guy -said a second time that "we need to make sure we're distributing the ball" In McDermott's presser right after the loss, he was asked whether the lack of production behind Diggs worried him, and he said something to the effect of I'll have to look at the tape. Today he spoke several times about distributing the ball, "you keep people engaged that way" etc. After the loss Josh said "when you have a guy like Stef you have to find more ways to get him the ball" which, given that Diggs already has more than 2x the targets of anyone else.....left me with the feeling that just perhaps, Dorsey and McDermott and Josh are not on the same page about "distributing the ball". Ultimately of course, if we distribute the ball to other open receivers (who I think are there on most plays) and stay on the field, it would result in more opportunities for Diggs as some of the defensive attention would have to come off him and we'd have more plays overall. As far as Davis....Josh isn't helping his catch % by giving him these deep balls into tight coverage, but Davis is not making catches he could/should make in other contexts.

Snarky response: That's supposed to be a comeback route, yes? I hope? Compared to Josh Allen, Barkley and Keenum kinda move like busted mower in tall grass

So he should never have seen the field in 2018 after a partial UCL tear that kept him out 5 games? C'Mon man. Most Grade II sprains heal without surgery.

I think it's possible Diggs didn't have both feet down and the catch would have been overturned. But if that had happened, 2nd and 10 is better than 2nd and 20.

Yeah, I think that's fake AF Huh? I mean, anyone can put something in quotes. Where and to whom was it supposedly said? When has Allen ever said anything to generate controversy and bulletin board material before a game?

Saturday 4 pm