Beck Water

Ah, Gotcha. I have not myself watched all-22, nor do I have the "eye" to figure out what the play design is from broadcast film. I was just making the point that apparently there were some draw plays on that drive.

In one of the screen shots I've seen Diggs to the L, well short of the goal line - what was his coverage? In any event, situational awareness: it's 2nd and 10 from the 20 yd line with 1:19 left. A dump off to an RB who gets tackled after a 5 yd gain makes it 3rd and 5 from the 15 yd line. A throw with a top DB in close coverage and able to break between the receiver and the QB, I think is pretty risky even if the ball is thrown a bit earlier and ahead of Gabe. Whether Gabe could have run his route differently in a way that would have boxed the DB out, I can't tell.

I believe you, and I'm sure having sat down and looked at the tape, McDermott would agree. Allen also owns it. But my post was addressed to another poster's assertion McDermott was "throwing Josh under the bus" by saying it's hard to win when you turn the ball over 4 times, immediately post game in his presser. He in fact specifically mentioned interior OL in that presser. My point is: 1) it's pretty well known and agreed that turnovers and turnover differential are key indicators of whether a team will win the game. This isn't new or controversial. And if the turnovers are INTs, the QB is usually responsible. 2) at the time McDermott said it, in his press conference, what he knew is that Josh threw a critical game-ending INT (and another on 4th and 2) and there were 2 fumbles, one on the QB-center exchange Therefore what he said in his post-game presser was not intended to throw Josh under the bus, because 1) at the time Josh was known to be responsible for 2 of 4 and 2) it's basically a truism that a team can't win when they turn the ball over and lose the turnover differential.

I don't think McDermott would have reached his current position without being able and willing to own his mistakes - to "tell the truth" to himself. It's a necessary trait of leaders. For example, it was reported that when McDermott made the mistake of starting Nate Peterman and benching Tyrod Taylor (said to be at the urging of Rico Dennison), McDermott owned the mistake in front of the team in an internal team meeting. So he can and will own mistakes. Publicly and to the press, he said he did not regret it. Whether he owns mistakes internally or publicly, is his own affair. He is not obligated to own mistakes to the media or to the fans, just to himself and his staff and his team. FWIW Dorsey comments "we hit some draws on them" in the long drive (in response to a question about run/pass balance ending in 4th and 2) About 1:40 into his presser https://www.buffalobills.com/video/ken-dorsey-make-sure-we-re-learning-from-these-experiences

I think bringing in another person to the mix would be A Bad Plan, especially if you give him "a degree of control". First of all, what makes us believe that Frank Reich is a Game Plan Genius? He had a 9-7 and a 4-12 year with Rivers in SD. He had 7-9 and 13-3 years in Philly, where it was believed Pederson called the plays. The Colts offense seemed to work pretty nicely in 2018 and 2020 - with Nick Sirianni as offensive coordinator and a good QB. The wheels seemed to fall off with Marcus Brady as OC and Wentz as QB, then this year. So what is there in that which leads us to believe that Reich is the Man in the Cape who should be given the keys? Second, the Bills already have a crowd around the OC with Joe Brady as QB coach and Aaron Kromer as OL coach, and .....JOHN BUTLER, the DB coach, as "Passing Game Coordinator". Wait, Wat? Did you all miss that little move made last February? Maybe, as another thread suggests, part of the problem is "too many cooks" in the kitchen, and there's some confusion of authority between Dorsey, Brady, Butler, and Kromer. Maybe the Bills need to quietly SIMPLIFY the command and control structure on the offensive side of the ball, and not complicate it more. Beasley and Sanders have both retired from football. When a man says he's retired, Believe Him.

Stirring the ***** because he’s bored or hurt in his feels does not seem like a very high journalistic standard

In case you didn't take note, Singletary fumbled the ball and there was a fumbled center-QB exchange which neither McDermott nor Dorsey pinned on Josh (I think it was on Josh, and Josh put it on himself). When there are 4 turnovers and 2 are not (or not necessarily) on our QB, I don't understand your interpretation that saying we can't turn the ball over 4 times and win = throwing the QB under the bus. That said, the turnovers, especially the last 2 vs the Vikes and the 2 4Q vs the Jets, are the biggest contributing factors to those 2 losses. It's a problem that has to get fixed somehow to return to winning. If McD shrunk from acknowledging that, people would be rightfully calling him out for white-washing the problem.

I've wondered that. Dorsey has a couple times allude to technique issues regarding Allen incompletions. I've wondered if Dorsey was in his ear on the sideline during games with occasional tune-up suggestions and now both he and Shea Tierney aren't on the sideline, and Joe Brady is not a QB technician. This would be seem to be a soluble problem though. I don't know; when the Bills were spinning their wheels last year, I heard plenty of criticism of Daboll from people who know how to watch film. After the Pittburgh game last year, after the Jags game, against the Colts - oh my, the Colts. I think when the Bills win, there's a lot of great stuff and when the Bills lose, fire everyone and blow the thing up. I remember people complaining on this very board last season that Daboll wasn't using pre-snap motion and mixing up the formations. I think it is true that Daboll used clever play design and trickery to scheme guys open and Dorsey is more "do your 1/11, beat your guy"

I can distinctly remember a Chiefs playoff loss where Tony Dungy opined on national TV, "the Chiefs may win a Superbowl, but they won't do it with Andy Reid as their coach" Not 100% sure when, it was before Mahomes. Maybe 2016. Everything you say may be true, and you may be correct to absolve Wawrow of self-importance or rumor-mongoring, but it doesn't change the question "what is his purpose in throwing this one out there?" ? what is it?

I don't see how I can agree with that just being off target or a safe throw if Josh leads Davis. The problem is that Peterson is between Allen and Davis, making it possible for him to react to the ball and jump it, similar to an INT Josh threw to Davis early in the Pitt game. Josh threw the ball on a line to Davis when Wallace was between him and Davis, in position to jump the throw. If Josh leads Davis, Peterson can still dive and deflect the ball or possibly turn on the jets and get it. In both cases, it looks to me as though Davis would be open and it would be a safe throw if thrown more on an arc, OR Davis needs to come back for the ball and maneuver to box out his coverage. If Josh waits a moment it looks as though he has choices.

Holy ***** so they did. That would explain the lack of DPI call on Dawson Knox in the EZ then - make up call

1 minute 19 not 2 minutes, but I believe the Bills still had both their OT time outs and could have handled a pass to the middle or a run/receiver not getting OOB. Point is valid: the one thing Josh CAN NOT do in that situation is throw a pick.

?? Are they underperforming? Or are they not being given opportunities to perform? If we want to talk underperforming, throwing 2 INT per game the last 3 games should head the list.

I have a similar story of leaving for a family obligation when the Bills were up 24-10 and coming back to see a stop on 4th down (safe! We can kneel it out...) only to see a Minn TD and WTF, what happened? Just a point that it was 2nd and 10 from the Minn 20 with 1:19 left when Josh threw the pick. Josh could have taken an open option for a short gain or maybe a 1st down, and still played for the win Situational awareness: he had no need to go for the "kill shot" there.

Thanks for the writeup, Virgil. Always good to hear your thoughts. Goes beyond the INT, but on the 4th and 2, I would have liked to see the Bills take the points there. We also started out with 2nd and 2, and threw 3 consecutive pass plays. I don't know whether there were options or checks, but with 2nd and 2, why not try at least one run? But, the problem wasn't just the interception, it's that it was returned 39 yds. In theory, a punt is more controlled coverage for the Bills than an EZ interception. FWIW on the fumble, Josh took the blame but McDermott talked about the interior OL. I just wonder about that play call, again. Why not call a play where Josh has receiver options and let him take the snap from shotgun and throw it if there's a safe throw, or throw it away? Is there a rule I don't know about where if the ball is thrown away it risks being a safety? I guess if it's ruled intentional grounding, but a good play design should avoid that, if it goes OOB in the vicinity of a receiver. Still, a safety is better than a TD. I know the Giants intentionally took a safety in a similar situation earlier this year. I believe on the last interception, Josh was throwing to Gabe Davis crossing the middle, and Peterson jumped the route. I believe Josh had more than one option there, including Singletary short. It was 2nd and 10 from the 20 with more than a minute left. Let Singletary get some yards, get a first down, and keep looking for a break in coverage. This was similar IIRC to the EZ INT vs the Packers.

As he should

Yes, there are people whose reactions are over the top. It's all of a piece with the tar-and-feathering that takes place on other issues: coaching, Edmunds, McKenzie, Davis, Knox, etc. It's part of this board. The thing is, without going over-the-top about it, Allen has arguably cost us the last 2 games. Wawrow captures it: I haven't watched as much all-22 as I used to, but from the all-22 I have watched and particularly around the interceptions, there were open options and Josh chose to force the ball when he had safer choices. Gabe Davis has 5 interceptions against him as a receiver. He could easily have 6 if he didn't out-muscle Fitzpatrick during the Steelers game. They're not on him for the most part, as far as I can tell - Josh is forcing the ball to him when he's well covered or throwing it in a way that lets it be picked instead of making it "Davis ball or no one" (the last one vs. the Jets was miscommunication but I thought Davis was in the right place vs. the coverage). Similar story with Knox, who has 3 interceptions against him and again, for the most part not his fault. Coaches like RBs to rotate to allow them to clear their heads and recover a bit from the pounding they take. Josh at times is taking the pounding of an RB, but he never comes out, he goes back in the huddle and takes the snap and does boneheaded *****. There may be some connection here. Josh loves to run and truck people and he gets adulation and attention for it, but if there's a short safe pass to Singletary who could get almost as many yards maybe Josh should take it instead of getting his bell rung and coming back to the huddle.

I can never hear the damned questions being asked at the press conferences, let alone figure out if they're drumming up controversy. But it is a reporter's job to look for controversy and issues.

I respect John Wawrow as an excellent journalist, but I don't respect this style of journalism. If Wawrow has a story, he tell it. If he's restricted from telling it because it doesn't meet APs standard for verification or was told to him in confidence, off the record, that confidence/off the record promise should not be flirted with on the Twitterverse. Edit: Mea Culpa, should have done first. Having read his whole thread, I think it's more open and less hinty at deep dark secrets The issue that can be seen from thousands of miles away is just this: the QB is not taking what the defense is giving him, he is not spreading the ball around and involving players who are busting their asses to get open play after play - and who then face press and public criticism for "not contributing". There aren't necessarily enough adjustments to the adjustments the opponent makes. But more critically, the QB is just not taking care of the ball. He's going for the kill shot when he has time, and the underneath stuff that would move the chains is there. How much of this is on McDermott and how much on Dorsey, or whether it's just having made him a $258 million man, he's become "above criticism" in the facility, I don't know. I think it's an educated guess that the internal issues relate to this.

Jaquan Johnson has started 3 games with Hamlin: -Miami (L - and we seemed to be protecting the DBs by playing ball-control offense) -Pittsburg (W, but Pickett passed for 327 yds and showed why they're 27th in the league rushing) -Jets (L - in which we could not stop the run) He played some snaps vs Tennessee when the game was put-away, and some snaps vs Green Bay when we let them back in it rushing. Edmunds has missed one game, vs Pittsburgh. I thought Dodson played capably, though we did give up a lot of passing yards. Dane Jackson has missed one game (L, Miami) It is true we have won 6 games with Tre out, but I'm not aware of the "bunch of games" we've won with Johnson and Hamlin at safety or with Jackson out and 2 rookies starting.

That would be stupid. If Josh isn't enough of a "sure thing" to start, he's not enough of a "sure thing" to be the back up

better 1

Concur it's not realistic to think Allen goes into the game as the backup. The Backup QB is always 1 QB hit away from playing the rest of the game. If Allen isn't healthy enough to play the game, he's not healthy enough to be the backup. If he is healthy enough to be the backup, he's healthy enough to start. I personally was surprised the Bills didn't elevate Barkley anyway. Xavier Rhodes is not subject to waivers, so they could have signed him and used one of their two "free elevations" on Barkley (who amazingly enough for having been in the league since 2013, is still subject to waivers as far as I can tell). All I can conclude is that the Bills are very confident that Josh can play a full game in an effective fashion.

It's like Josh Allen has said: you win and you're the greatest, you're unstoppable, you're the best. You lose and you ought to tear everything down and fire all the coaches.