Beck Water

Chris Simms unbuttoned on the Mia at Buffalo game Still thinks the Bills "aren't dominant on defense" and just depend on Josh Allen Magic to win. Agree? Disagree? I don't get it. That ain't fearlessness in them pics that's foolishness. Now put a goal line and an endzone, then it's fearlessness

That's one of those where I wish I could see one of those little moving diagrams. I think Allen had to make his decision and throw before it was clear Diggs was gonna shed his defender like that

Which is why it would not make a lot of sense to move Brown to guard as some are suggesting (maybe that's in another thread)

If you wanna play "shoulda coulda woulda" how about Creed Humphrey going 2 picks after Boogie Basham?

I posted on this in the game week thread. Either they weren't happy at all with how Bryant played in his limited snaps against the Fish (10 I think) OR They're very confident Jordan Phillips can go OR They're very un-confident in the progress of Bates ankle and Morse head

I'm not sure I agree with giving him a pass on the Strip sack. It's like, yeah, it's extending the clock on the play a long time, but that's Allen's game. Hopefully he continues to improve. I hope he won't need surgery and will be able to put in a full off season of strength training at an NFL level this year.

Apologies if I missed this up-thread: I did not see Brandin Bryant being the one cut to make room for Boettger. Either the Bills are very confident in Oliver having come out of the game OK and Jordan Phillips being ready to go... ....or they were not happy with how Bryant played in his 10 snaps against the Dolphins ...or they are not confident at all about Bates ankle and Morse's head I'm worried about that last possibility.

I give no ***** if Sammy is sad. He's laughing all the way to the VIP section of the club with his near-$70M career earnings. Last time I saw him on the field with Green Bay, he looked like a freakin' tight end. Fat Kelvin, move over!

I didn't see the Jags particularly as a "let down game". I could be misremembering, but I didn't feel we'd gone over the top, all out against the Dolphins the previous week - not that we didn't play hard and play well, but we were coming off a bye week and it seemed like a regular, solid win.

And Baldy on our defense. This was a preview of the Mia game so it features the Jets

DANG! Will you look at that release off the line by Quintin Morris. I kind of want to see more of that guy! Here's a "Baldy Breakdown of the entire GWD. Excellent play, but a point to ponder: the DPI against McKenzie was totally legit IMO and to Baldy (which likely means more). But, there was an equally legit DPI in the EZ against the Giants that was NOT called and clearly lost the game for them. It's one of these "was it there in time/wasn't it?" plays - Diggs eventually gets open against Xavian Howard on the R side of the field. But, I think Josh has to throw it before it develops enough to be sure. Anyway, we got the DPI and it worked, so....

We were on our heels against the run to my eye, because we'd made up our mind to limit the pass I think one might consider that the Bills D made adjustments, and the Fish thought they could have more success passing against those adjustments. And, they kind of did, right? to the tune of 13 unanswered points in the 3Q But the difference in run and pass wasn't as extreme as you might think. First half, Fish were 126 yds on 14 rush attempts but 8 of 16 on pass attempts for 91 net yards passing When you take out Mostert's 67 yd attempt, 59 yds. Second half, 63 yds on 11 rush attempts, even more effective (except we didn't let them break a big run), but 9 of 14 for 126 yds net yards passing. It's not like they "abandoned" the run. They had like 47% run in the first half, and 44% in the 2nd half.

You're weird LOL

Davis had a very good game against Miami. 6 targets, 4 receptions, 56 yds. Josh did not try to force the ball in to him or throw it away in his direction because he remained too well covered. Josh threw it to someone else who was not so well covered, and the passing game worked better. Davis has been running more than just "go" routes all season. His best route is probably the The problem has been that he either hasn't hung on to the ball, or that he's well covered with a high probability of a PD, or an INT if the throw is a bit off. The way to get the offense to take off, is to target whoever is open.

With all respect, I think that's a mistaken hope. Diggs was "fed" the ball against Detroit. He wound up with 8 catches on 15 targets or 53% catch Diggs needs to get the ball when he's open. If Josh has time, Diggs will usually work his way open. He's very good. But especially when the OL isn't holding up against the pass rush du jour, we need to do more of what we did vs. Miami: spread the ball around to other targets. Take the quick shots. Then when the defense is like "oh, we're being nibbled to death, we need to stop it", throw to Diggs. Nate Geary: And Diggs needs to stop getting visibly pissy on the field and throwing his helmet (IMO) when someone else is targeted and he thinks it should be him. He doesn't know the timing, he doesn't know what Josh is seeing, he's putting a lot of pressure on his QB. Contrary to what people say, this is far from saying "I was open, throw to me, I'll make you right" on the sideline or "I Got You" in the huddle. The above didn't stop Diggs from getting his targets BTW, he got just as many.

The thing is (and here is where I believe analytics really need to be localized), the Bills have shown a pattern of "let down games" 2020: big win over the Seahawks -> 17 unanswered 3Q points to Cardinals, L; hard fought playoff win over Ravens -> bad AFCCG loss to Chiefs 2021: big win over the Chiefs -> close loss to the Titans; big win over the Saints -> close loss to the Patriots 2022: big hard-fought win over the Jets, then the Dolphins -> ? what will happen in super-cold away game vs. the Bears? I think there are probably some reasonable rationales. For example, the team's key players may "put it all out there" in a win and come out of the game hampered with dings and dents or injured, making it harder for the team to play its best the following week. How do you know that was specifically the night de-ice capability, and not an ATC ground delay?

Eh. While I hesitate to respond to someone who is "feeding the filthybeast" (aka Miami/NE fan troll), Mac Jones did have a solid year last year, including a 9 game stretch with 8 wins and 1 OT loss and wins over good teams like the Titans (who beat us, we may recall). I think a lot of the difference is that last year, he had an OC in Josh McDaniels, who had a solid offensive system and who knew how to shape it to his QB's strengths and teach his QB to function in it. This year, he's got former Patriots DC and disastrous Lions HC Matt Patricia, and former Patriots ST coach and failed Giants HC Joe Judge. I see no evidence that either of them know much about how to craft an offense to a team's strengths or develop a QB. Basically, his support system was surgically excised and replaced with a pair of crutches.

Yow. I don't know how much were air yards, but Mac has a "long" of 75 yds last season and 48 yds this season. In Brady, Belicheck seems to have found a QB who was motivated by his particular brand of coaching. Not so sure it works well with a QB he might otherwise make serviceable. Seems like he's taking a crap on Jones for his own poor playcall and/or failure to prepare the team

Chicago airports and Chicago/environs have good snow removal capability. That said, Chicago airspace and Chicago are both a MESS when it snows, way worse than you see in Buffalo. Reasons are that Chicago airspace is among the most dense in the country. Airport scheduling at O'Hare assumes good weather, but when weather is bad, the landing capacity of the airport is drastically reduced (IIRC, O'Hare's two main runways are too close to allow both to be used under instrument conditions). Similar with the streets - Chicago traffic is normally a snarl in good weather because just so many people on the roads. When roads need to be plowed and following distance really should increase to allow for poor braking, it's total gridlock. Maybe it's improved post-Panini with more people WFH, I don't know.

It's possible. I think the Bills will be "up" for clinching the division though.

I did this after Game 13 but thought this was a good time to look at it again, what with our game with the Bears coming up. Details: Where a team had more than one QB, I added them unless the contribution was negligible. Sort is for rush yards per game. The Bills have the biggest change in rush yards per game when the QB contributions are subtracted - from 8th to 27th. Second is Baltimore, followed by the Giant, Eagles and Cardinals. The Bears of course do decrease, but only by 8 slots. They have a strong rush game with and without their QB and we will need to plan accordingly.

They do, by every category: Attempts, Yards, and Y/A They drop to 8th in the NFL if the QB is subtracted from YPG I wouldn't take comfort in that since the Bills drop in YPG without QB is more precipitous (biggest drop in the league actually I think Lamar has lost a little step this season - mental, perhaps, since he may be taking that extra fraction of a second to look for a pass EDIT: if anyone is interested, I couldn't find data so I calculated team run game w/out the QB contributions

Try more like 5 seasons. The problem is, we can't float a guy on the roster for 4 seasons to figure it out any more.

Absolutely No disagreement here. I'm such a sweetheart - I DM'd one of the video clips set to Benny Hill to my Patriots fan friends. And I feel no guilt for this action. 😂