Beck Water

So! How 'bout those Bills? Think all the "Get Well Cards" Allen's elbow received did some good and his throws will be a bit more consistent today? Maybe we should start sending get well cards to Von Miller's Lateral Meniscus, c/o One Bills Drive. Thoughts? Go Bills!

I heard it was gonna be Dolphins Chargers that got flexed.

Oliver NFL Player of the Week Let's hope it inspires him tomorrow night

Waaat? Damar Hamlin 6-0 200 lb Jordan Poyer 6-0 191 lb Micah Hyde 6-0 197 lb C'mon man! Maybe you're confusing him with Jaquan Johnson 5'10 191 or Cam Lewis 5'9" 185? That is true, but Hyde took a poor angle They happen from time to time, nobody perfect.

In case someone here would like to talk about Week 13 Bills at Pats I always enjoy the Belestrator segments - they often indicate what Bill really thinks by omission. For example a couple years ago, Bill highlighted a play where Josh had a man open in the endzone, but chose to keep the ball and run for a TD. He talked about how the Bills offense was able to get guys open or use the QB to score, but the way he illustrated it and his tone of voice, it seemed kind of clear that Bill thought Josh would keep it himself and not throw it, and they could use that against him (I think we won, but it was close). I don't think it's an accident that he chose to illustrate 3 successful big plays, especially a big play on 3rd and 2. I think he views the Bills as being a bit of a "Go Big or Go Home" offense right now which will Go for the Gusto instead of taking the easy, underneath stuff and moving the ball down the field, and he plans to bait us into that and use that against us.

Q: What do you call it when a dinosaur scores a touchdown? A: A Dino-Score No, he was signed to Tampa's Practice Squad. Elevated for a game and then went back to practice squad. So he was a free agent and if he canceled his retirement he'd be a free agent again.

It's happened in a couple of games. When the run D faltered.

Coulda stopped right there Bills lost 3 games we could have and arguably should have won We need to take care of our own business

I mean, from the perspective of NE and their 11 freakin' Superbowl appearances and 6 freakin' Superbowl wins, Sure. But from the perspective of a Bills fan...be honest, wouldn't you pretty much sell off Leftie for those two wins? Yeah, Love is gonna Garappolo his way outta there.

And don't think the players don't appreciate this. Listen to Dion Dawkins impassioned defense of Allen after the Jets loss when Allen's presser started "It's hard to win in the NFL when your QB plays like *****". Basically said Josh was saying that to protect them, he'll take it all on himself when it isn't all on him, we win as a team and we lose as a team, everyone has to look at themselves and what they can do better. He was polite, but impassioned and I was left with the clear impression that anyone who tried to diss off Josh within earshot of DDawk might just get put in a box. The guys know when they've screwed up and cost the team a play or a series or a score or something that could have turned the game, and they appreciate it that anything Josh has to say to them about it, will be said in private or said by the coaches. A QB calling out his OL or his receivers or his OC in an interview or presser IMO is a weak-sauce substitute for good coaching and trust and communication inside the locker room.

I'm left unsure if Kizer was persuaded or not.

Did anyone else catch how Josh called out that he put his body into it? He said he stepped into it and "put two cheeks into that one". Josh also said Dorsey just told him he was putting that play in if they should happen to see that specific coverage, as they were getting on the plane to Detroit and asked if he was good with that because they hadn't practiced it (it's been in their playbook but they haven't repped it all year)

He's been bad at some aspects of playing slot corner (pass coverage man to man) and good at others (run D, zone). Everything is more nuanced and mixed than some fans want to make it out to be. The other point is: Leslie Frazier at one point explained how the Bills expect Milano, Edmunds, and Taron Johnson to act in concert. Neither Dodson nor Klein are a full replacement for what Edmunds does, and it makes Milano and Johnson's jobs harder. Milano is less affected because he's playing at an unreal level, but it's hurt Johnson. I think the lack of practice in recent weeks had a big impact on the Bills secondary. I think one reason we've played man (beyond wanting to rush 5 more to get some pressure without Rousseau and Epenesa and then Miller) is that it's an easier defense to apply to a new opponent and their receivers/routes vs the intricate read/react and pass-offs of an effective zone. Hopefully we got back on track this week, though having practically the whole secondary miss practice on Sunday and 3 of them still out Monday is not great.

Wilson is really that bad. The offensive scheme could be better, the protection could be better, and the route running could be better, but all 3 could be functional if Wilson was. All that said, really comes down to Hackett because someone has to get in the $243M man's Grill and tell him he needs to make his reads and follow his progressions and not be all "I'm throwing to Courtland Sutton No Matter What" JMO, but there's an interesting piece here by Kurt Warner, starting with a clinic on route running provided to Courtland Sutton (!!!) combined with a breakdown of the whole picture explaining where Wilson should be trying to go. Aside: Warner has really evolved and improved on his pieces. He now outlines routes and coverages and make it much easier for someone like myself to follow, so I get a lot more out of them than I used to. Highly recommend them! Earlier in the year he did this:

Right on. And (keeping up the role flip) don't forget bolstering their beleaguered secondary by trading for Dean Marlowe, who knows the defensive system so well and can step right in. Also be sure to mention that Xavier Rhodes is a 3x pro bowler and a 1st team all-pro. These are practice squad signings for KC. Just like us signing John Brown to the PS, they barely flicker the cap-O-meter, because most teams keep the PS full and cut guys in order to sign different guys.

Melvin Gordon is a 29 yr old back with a major fumbling problem this year (5 fumbles in limited snaps). KC seems to love adding old RBs every season. Bryan Edwards is a 2020 3rd round pick who washed out of Las Vegas and Nevada. He has potential, and showed a little something last season with the Raiders, so it's a good question why they moved on from him. These aren't bad PS adds, but I'm not sure why you see them as substantively different PS signings than Smoke Brown or CJ Brewer to the PS, or signing AJ Klein and Xavier Rhodes to our active roster, or trading for Nyheim Hines and Dean Marlowe? Hines had an immediate impact as PR/KR. Brandon Williams is interesting. He's a quality DL vet who the Ravens moved on from last season at age 33. Adam Schefter (presumably from Williams agent) announced the signing a day ago, but it doesn't show up on the KC Transactions page as of yet. I wonder if there's a hitch with his physical or something. What exactly do you think Melvin Gordon or Bryan Edwards are going to do for KC in the way of immediate impact?

Morris has been a 12-20 snaps on offense a game kind of guy, except vs. Pitt (when he played for Knox) and Cleveland (when we played a very high number of heavy sets, including 2 TE sets). You may be right that he's active, especially as he's also a full-time STer. I was kind of hoping to see him as a WR #5, especially since I thought he looked pretty good against Pittsburgh when he got his chance - would have had a nice TD if the ball hadn't hit the DB in the leg on the way to his hands - or in heavy sets as vs. Detroit. But with him being out so much, thinking we won't see that. I just don't want to see empty sets when we can't pass protect worth beans.

I mean, it’s kind of both. He had a high ankle sprain and at least one other injury, and when he returned his afterburners were notably missing. I think the injuries lingered and that’s why he couldn’t stick with other teams last season. Seems like guys who have had high ankles have said it takes time for them to “get right” completely

Same

What's the local take on the whole Tom Brown Jr/Stalking Wolf thing? Or is that too old for opinions to circulate?

My initial feeling was that Spector would be a guy it would be relatively low-risk to slide thru waivers and onto the practice squad. But you could have a valid point here. Obviously the Bills aren't going to give up on Terrel Bernard as a 3rd round pick, but Dodson did NOT look like an adequate backup when he played for Edmunds vs Cleveland, plus, he's an RFA next season. It may be time to restock at backup LB. I look at Spector's draft profile and say "nah" but then I go back and look at Matt Milano's draft profile and say "hmmmmm....." Your take on Jackson, on the other hand, is a Bad Take. Jackson has struggled because his strength is off-ball and the Bills have been playing Man. He's an excellent off-ball corner whose play helped us win 5 straight games at the end of last season/playoffs and helped us win in the 8 we have this season. Has he been toasted a couple times, sure, and by some excellent, almost uncoverable WR too, playing man behind an injury-depleted DL that was failing to sufficiently "affect the QB". He's not trash, and you're going to discover if you don't already know that Rhodes and Benford have similar (or more severe) limitations as man corners. It was an ST based move to keep Kumerow over Hodgins. Whether it's cost us or not, I haven't seen the ST play without Kumerow in enough depth to know.

I was addressing your point that Beasley's production hadn't really fallen off last year (relative to Beasley of previous years) and any fan perceptions were all "Panini inflluenced" so to speak. My point was that Beasley of 2021 had fallen off relative to Beasley of 2020 or 2019, by several important objective metrics. Maybe they were coverage-influenced but I thought they were related to a speed and agility fall-off based on age. There's also the argument that we're looking for consistency, and the fact is Beasley was inconsistent from game to game last season, possibly based upon injuries, but prior to the rib shot he was known to take. Beasley unquestionably still has it from the neck up in his ability to dissect zone coverage, in a way no one currently active on the team seems to possess. I'm not sure it's relevant to compare any numbers from this year to last year. Cover1 made the point that the terminology may be the same, but actually only about 20-30% of the offensive play design seems to have carried over from last year, and that on many plays, there seem to be deep options, check down options, and nothing in between. It's a fact that McKenzie hasn't been as productive from the slot as all of us would like to see, but it's unclear to me whether that's on McKenzie, on Josh (where McKenzie is the check-down and Josh hates the checkdown and won't take it), or on the play design. My hunch is "some of all three". Again, Nate Geary stated that he had heard from a contact he trusts in the Bills FO that any contact with Beasley would have to be initiated from Cole's side. The implication was that, despite public civility from Beane and McDermott, there was some significant bridge-burning that took place behind the scenes on Beasley's side.

I think there's been some measured and fact-based commentary on Beasley falling off in 2021 that has nothing to do with "The Panini" as Reddit calls it. For sure Beasley was a warrior playing through a rib injury. On the other hand, it always has to be asked, when a player is playing through injury, "are you, at whatever % you're at, better than the Next Guy Up?" I'm not sure the answer was always "yes" for Beas. It was notable that Beasley was not running his routes as deep as he had in previous years - all season, not just after the rib-shot. His YPC, YBC, and YAC all say this. When he went out and McKenzie came in for some routes, the difference in speed was eye-popping, so I think part of the problem was that Beasley simply couldn't run his routes fast enough to get as deep as previous years any more. The shallower routes being run also to some extent resulted from how teams were covering the Bills, but I don't think that's all of it. To sum: you are correct that his #catches was the same, but his YPC and his 1st downs fell off markedly. He was also less consistent - he had 5 games where he had 1 or 2 catches, and 6 games where he had less than 25 receiving yards. Stevenson should not be in consideration as a slot WR. He is a speed guy only. Unless something has changed markedly, he can't block, he can't follow blocks, he can't release against press coverage, and he doesn't have a great route vocabulary.

Also good analysis. I don't see a drive to cut Stevenson. He's not taking up a roster spot, and if he's not healthy enough to bring back to the roster he would argue for an injury settlement, so there's likely no cap savings. Put him on season ending IR. My concern about bringing back Ike would be if he's "next man up" ready at the deadline, and not "Tre White" ready where you have to give him a roster spot AND keep enough guys who can play instead of him active. I think the timing of the Tre thing may have cost us a chance to keep Hodgins, who I think could have potentially helped us the last couple games vs. Gentry. If he's "next man up" ready as a backup, it's a no brainer. Have you seen anything of the ST sans Kumerow? I tried to look at our averages with and without him. Early in the season, there didn't seem to be much difference when he was out for games 4,5, and 6. The latter part of the Vikes game (after he went out) and the last couple games have been worse, but for the Browns and Lions that could easily be lack of practice - I'm sure when practice is minimal, offense and defense are the focus, especially with so many missing players.

Has he said this again recently? I agree with you where a healthy Crowder is concerned. One of our local press guys did a piece on players coming back from broken lower leg injuries. Of course, the description "broken leg" encompasses a lot of injuries, but the assessment (based on what was thought to be injured because of the video) seemed to be that if Crowder did come back for the very end of the season/playoffs he would very likely not be the same guy. I don't see Crowder as one of those guys where him at 80% is better than the alternative. I agree that we haven't been getting consistent production across the middle of the field, but I think a better solution would be to start using Knox or Hines more in those roles. PS I mention Hines because the Bills FO fixation on acquiring a pass-catching RB seems to argue that was their plan all along, but Cook has not developed as quickly as they hoped and still has Some Development Needed